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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:26:00 -
[121]
Make that five people - got a double Taranis winner reported also now 
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Igwilve
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:27:00 -
[122]
But that's not true, Morkt. It's not that it isn't supposed to happen - it just isn't supposed to be likely. And we don't know that it is - we can't draw conclusions about probablity without a much larger sample size.
Because you can't know anything at all just from anecdotal evidence. Anecdotes show that something can happen, not that it happens a lot or is likely to happen. We cannot have enough information to answer these questions.
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Athule Snanm
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:49:00 -
[123]
Actually I would argue that PapaSmurf has provided enough data to highlight a potential problem. We know that the draw is a simple pull a number from a list affair, and we know what the highest RP total in the highest researched field was. Probability of someone winning one was 0.76% (0.0076). Chances of it happening to the same person twice at the same probability (which of course is a massive over-estimate) is 0.0076^2 or 0.006%. That's one in 17,000. I don't think there have been 17,000 interceptors released yet. Of course it's possible for something like this to happen anyway - but when it happens on numerous occasions it starts to stretch credulity to the extreme. Note that this applies to other fields as much as to the starship ones.
_______________________________
Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene! |
Mjolnir
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Posted - 2004.03.25 22:41:00 -
[124]
 Quote:
Edited by: PhamNuwen on 24/03/2004 21:59:29
Quote:
From the CSM..........
TomB > Wait a minute, these people weren't researching ships?
Morkt Drak > ship field has over 5million RPs - I win a frigate BPO this week i go to ZERO RPS, whats my chance sof winning ANOTHER one next week?
Morkt Drak > and, yes, one was doing mechanical engineering
Morkt Drak > (which replaced astronautical engineering btw)
kieron > Ok guys, we've been doing well so far. Let's keep the side comments to a minimum and keep rolling along.
TomB > Ok ... then I understand the problem
TomB > We'll look into this
TomB > didn't know that it was a week between
so now it needs investigating....was only lile 6 pages ago Morkt started this post.
dosnt fill you with confidence does it.
CCP is ignoring the forum...?!
It seem's so :(
Btw: have a look to the number (and quality) of the Dev-Postings - it is also a little bit frustrating...
Link to DevPostFinder
From what that snippet from the CSM sounds like they are more intrested in making sure the right skills are assinged the right blueprint types then they are with the utter improbability of double and triple winners in the same feild. The standoffness of them when someone critsizes their code is sort of depressing too. I know it can be hard to accept there is a problem with your own design implmentation espically if a programmer has worked hard on figuring something out. But when your presented with these kind of reports from your player base you have got to accecpt facts that there is something wrong. Some things cant be shrugged off as just some player turning down a blueprint just to wait for something better.
Which PA character are you? |
Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 23:08:00 -
[125]
Quote:
But that's not true, Morkt. It's not that it isn't supposed to happen - it just isn't supposed to be likely. And we don't know that it is - we can't draw conclusions about probablity without a much larger sample size.
Because you can't know anything at all just from anecdotal evidence. Anecdotes show that something can happen, not that it happens a lot or is likely to happen. We cannot have enough information to answer these questions.
Thats the point though - we havent been given anything at all. We will never have anything more than anecdotal evidence because anything I (or anybody else) can gather relies on being told the truth to start with. There is no way I could ever verify what these people tell me... its all suspect evidence and I know that.
My point is simple - no matter how unlikely one or two instances might be they "could" be possible given chance. 3, 4 and now 5 is not chance. That simply isnt chance. Chance doesnt work like that. It isn't an "artifact"... artifacts don't show discernible patterns. And when we can go no further looking into something the devs surely must.
I remain deeply concerned about the entire affair, both form the bottom line potential bugs to the stunning silence, reticence and lack of communication from CCP HQ. We all "Know" nothing. BUt when the people who should know it all are clammed up and hiding what are we supposed to think then?
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Naal Morno
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:40:00 -
[126]
I won 10MN AB II blueprint with 4,000 points in Rocket Science.... it surely looks ok to me... This is with 2 characters and a total of 6 projects going.
Just FYI if it helps.
Your Heavy Neutron Blaster II perfectly strikes Serpentis Chief Sentinel, wrecking for 660.4 damage.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:45:00 -
[127]
Quote:
I won 10MN AB II blueprint with 4,000 points in Rocket Science.... it surely looks ok to me... This is with 2 characters and a total of 6 projects going.
Just FYI if it helps.
Not really Naal.
THe part of the lottery with "who wins waht" int erms of RPs doesn't seem borken to me. Its just this issue of repeat winners within very short periods of time (two weeks or so) for the rarest of all and most sought after BPs (Elite Frigates) that smells wrong.
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MalFunction
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Posted - 2004.03.26 06:54:00 -
[128]
20k research points in amarrian starship engineering
bpo offered 2 days ago
just fyi :)
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Hardin
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Posted - 2004.03.26 09:01:00 -
[129]
Just to add to the anecdotal evidence someone else I know told me last night that he had got two BP's within the space of 24hrs from the same agent. The second 'win' was from a mere 87 RP points.
Possible - yes...
Likely - no!
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NoNamium
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Posted - 2004.03.26 10:46:00 -
[130]
This is nasty if it is true.
How would CCP go about "fixing" the wrongness of the R&D-lottery.
When BPO's were given out by agents for Cruisers and Battleships they quickly fixed it so that only BPCs were given out.
If they were to something similar to players who have recieved multiple tech 2 BPOs then there would be an outcry, but the outcry would be the same if they just fixed it and told that there was a bug.
My guess is that if it is indeed broken as many multiples at low RP-averages suggests, then they will fix it but not tell the community (too much hazzle)
From a strategic point of view that would be the smartest thing CCP could do, it's what would do, but that just leaves me angry because I'm not one of the chosen few to get double/triple tech 2 BPOs 
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NoNamium
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Posted - 2004.03.26 11:19:00 -
[131]
Ok, I've been thinking and now I'm getting really angry... to a point that sets of my "quit eve"-alarms.
The reportings suggests that there are about 50-100 dublicate or more winners of tech 2 blueprints. An at least half of them have gotten the blueprints with under 1k RP.
IF the handout of blueprints occur as stated by Papa Smurf then that shouldn't happen even if EVE ran throughout the entire lifetime of the universe with everyone on the planet playing.
What really gets under my skin is that there is nothing they could do about it which would satisfy me.
The ONLY thing I would accept would be impossible to implement:
Roll-back of all RP dealt by agents
Roll-back of all BPO handouts of tech 2 BPs
Roll-back of all trades with tech 2 BPs
Roll-back of all production of tech 2 items
Roll-back of all use of tech 2 components used in tech 2 item production
Roll-back of all trades with tech 2 items
Roll-back of all missions involving R&D agents including cost for items used in these missions
Roll-back of all payment for lease involving factorys and research facilities used for tech 2 blueprints
Roll-back of all sales on the market involving tech 2 blueprints, tech 2 items and components
Roll-back of all escrow missions involving tech 2 components, tech 2 items or blueprints
Roll-back of all courrier missions involving tech 2 components, tech 2 items or blueprints
Roll-back of any ship-travel that involved the use of tech 2 modules (this one can't be done)
IE. start from scratch again.
Its the only way to be completely fair, but unfortunately impossible. I know this must sound insane, but the market has been completely warped by tech 2 technology and all that follows from it.
Players who were lucky to get the benefit of the broken R&D double and triple handouts are harvesting great sums of money which people who were treated "according-to-algorithm" can only gaze with envy.
Please ignore all this if someone proves statistically that I'm wrong or that the algorithms ARE working as Papa Smurf suggested.
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Methos
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Posted - 2004.03.26 12:08:00 -
[132]
I myself have over 20k in starship R&D, I dont mind the fact that I am not getting a Tech2 bpo. I do mind thet fact that there are ppl getting multiple bpo's in my field with little to no rp's and not even being in the ship field they are getting the bpo's for the field. As I recall there was to be only a slight chance for someone outside the field of starship enginering to get a ship bp but, it sounds like from these posts that this IS more of a probability than being in the Ship field itself. I am not taking anything CCP has to say on faith. Give me facts, show me that the "lottery" is working as it should. I don't believe in santa or the tooth fairy and right now I dont believe the "lottery" is working as it should otherwise we would all be here gripping about something else.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence,
then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE |
Athule Snanm
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Posted - 2004.03.26 12:14:00 -
[133]
Statistically the BPs going to non-specialists is not a suprise, given the evidence we have. People who go on about things like 'I have 10 times the chance, twice the chance, etc' are looking at it from the wrong point of view. The highest R&D researcher a few weeks ago had a probability of winning in their field of 0.76%. That is, roughly 99.24% chance of not winning. If the same researcher had just idled their agent then they'd have a chance of 0.29% - ie 99.71% of not getting one. Let's say that a lowish earner is getting a 10th of their R&D (I suspect the ratio when you discount multipliers is less, but let's say it's a 10th) then the chances of winning are 0.03% - ie 99.97% not going to get a BP.
So let's look at those figures: 99.24, 99.71, 99.97 - no matter if you work your guts out or sit back sipping G&Ts all day you are basically unlikely to get a BP in any given draw. Because there are tonnes of small projects, odds are that most of the BPs will go to them. It's like buying 100 lottery tickets in the thoughts that you will then be guaranteed to win the jackpot - it just doesn't work like that. This is the world of ants that PapaSmurf was talking about. The only significant difference is whether you're in a lottery or not - as if you're not you'll never win. My personal opinion is that with the current setup doing R&D agent missions is probably a waste of time.
The other side of the issue is the duplicate winners - this is phenomenally unlikely, especially for the rarer BPs where people probably aren't turning them down. The fact that it appears to have happened on several occasions already screams out for further and careful investigation - or at least some very solid counters to the speculations on the forums which are likely to just get louder and louder as time goes by.
_______________________________
Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene! |
NoNamium
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Posted - 2004.03.26 12:21:00 -
[134]
Athule you're not writing anything that isn't already well known. Perhaps clearing things up a bit, but if you are responding to my posts then it should be made clear that I'm not refering to anything BUT multiple winners.
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Athule Snanm
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Posted - 2004.03.26 12:27:00 -
[135]
Quote:
Athule you're not writing anything that isn't already well known. Perhaps clearing things up a bit, but if you are responding to my posts then it should be made clear that I'm not refering to anything BUT multiple winners.
I'm not responding specifically to your posts, and I'm really just reposting what I've already being saying for a while now. What I'm trying to do is make it clear that the concerns aren't just based on pure speculation, and also making it as explicit as possible for the people with 30K RP who think that they're somehow unlucky not to have had a BP yet.
Personally, at this stage, I think the solution to the problem is to add either new advanced science skills requiring the existing skills at 5 that give huge bonuses, or make R&D agent missions give out huge bonuses. There are issues with both suggestions, but I can't see what else can be done to the system without completely tearing it down and *really* annoying everyone who's invested a lot of time in it so far.
_______________________________
Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene! |
Dan Daro
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Posted - 2004.03.26 13:21:00 -
[136]
Another one for you Morkt,
A member of my corp got one of the energised platings a couple of weeks ago, and got another yesterday. same agent, same research skill.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.26 15:49:00 -
[137]
Quote:
Another one for you Morkt,
A member of my corp got one of the energised platings a couple of weeks ago, and got another yesterday. same agent, same research skill.
Thats not necessarily a problem Dan.
Lots of people WILL get repeat wins via the same agent, as LOTS of people only have one agent.
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Phaethon
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Posted - 2004.03.26 15:49:00 -
[138]
Congrats to this thread on it's 10 day birthday. Too bad there hasn't been any followups on papa's first post on page 2.
WTB. Infifitrator I drones |
Ruffles
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Posted - 2004.03.26 17:33:00 -
[139]
Just to add another to the List Morkt. One of our fighters got our first blueprint. He also got our second blueprint, and he really doesn't do agents, just started it for the 'off-chance'.
No one else has, and there are some with quite decent RP totals in some fields.
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Rancid Mare
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Posted - 2004.03.26 19:06:00 -
[140]
if u have not heard CCP has spoken.
there is no problem with the lottery.
as reported by comical ali only moments ago, befor he fell under a large pile of tech2 BPO's his new agent is repeatingly chucking at him.
Rancid Mare of the EveMarshals.
Our Webby
Recruitement Videos here |
NoNamium
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Posted - 2004.03.27 17:04:00 -
[141]
That just means that one of two things are true:
The lottery works fine
or
The lottery is broken and CCP would rather say that it is working fine than have an uproar from many of the players
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Mr Popov
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Posted - 2004.03.28 04:45:00 -
[142]
Or that the lottery doesn't work fine, and CCP has no idea about it
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Booky
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Posted - 2004.03.28 14:22:00 -
[143]
Or that the Lottery is broke and CCP is going to do an inhouse fix and tell everyone it was working right all alone. I personally hope that is the case. It will fix the issues at hand and will also stop everyone and thier brother from crying about not getting a BPO in the error times. I just stopped researching a item after haveing 11k rp points simply because I wanted to research something else. If I never get a BPO, who cares, I have more fun doing other things in eve than worry about a BPO.
Spelling corrections welcome, but don't expect me to edit my post. |
Lucre
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Posted - 2004.03.29 12:05:00 -
[144]
Quote:
As I recall there was to be only a slight chance for someone outside the field of starship enginering to get a ship bp but, it sounds like from these posts that this IS more of a probability than being in the Ship field itself.
Well, AIUI if you are researching, say, Mechanical Engineering then you get entered in *all* race's ship bpo lotteries, whereas if researching Starship Engineering you only get entered in bpo lotteries for one race.
Given research points in Starship Engineering are trebled but that there are *four* races (plus Mech Eng etc. being eligible for other bpos as well as Starships), I think the conclusion should be obvious...
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Methos
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Posted - 2004.03.29 16:29:00 -
[145]
Edited by: Methos on 29/03/2004 16:32:25
I believe that was my quote, but what I meant by that is simple. Starship enginering has a x3 multiplyer. The highest person to date has 40k or rp's built up. Lets say we use the one person who got an elite frig bpo 1 week after he got his first. He may have 100-200 rp built up in mechanical enginering so, what your telling me it is very possible for that person to get ANOTHER elite frig bpo over the person who has 40,000 rp's. Once is unlikley but probable, twice and were some where in the vicinity of the tooth fairy and Santa Clause make belive. Owing upto the issue at hand is one thing but trying to treat us like were stupid and ill informed is quite another. You dont need to be a math wiz to tell that statistically this is about as likely as santas sleigh landing on you, given the huge amounts of "ants" working on the same thing. To use Papa Smurfs own agument against him the odds do favor the little guy but the the odds do not favor the same little guy every time or every other time around. I am not a child and resent being treated like one by CCP. If there is a problem fess up and fix it. If not give us difinative proof. As in some numbers to crunch, it is not like were asking for much other than what we were promised and what we are paying for.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence,
then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE |
Lucre
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Posted - 2004.03.30 12:36:00 -
[146]
Quote:
I believe that was my quote, but what I meant by that is simple.... *snip*
Sorry, I think we're at cross-purposes. I agree entirely that the reported repeat awards appear to make a mockery of the system - I wasn't defending that or attacking you, so apologies if I gave that impression!
What I was saying was if anything more depressing in that AIUI even if the lottery is working 'correctly' then you *still* have more of a chance of winning a starship bpo with a generic science than with starship engineering...
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Methos
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Posted - 2004.03.30 14:33:00 -
[147]
I am sorry if I appeared standoffish, and no offense taken. I whole heartedly agree with you. It just does seem that I have a better chance of getting a Ship bpo in some other field rather than in the Starship field. I would like to reiterate that I donĘt mind that I am not getting a bpo, to say I donĘt want one would be a lie, I would love one, but I can wait if thatĘs what it takesto get one, but I feel that ppl not in my field with a slight chance of getting one in the first place getting multiple bpoĘs of the same rare bp is a travesty and grave injustice to those that have spent the time and energy doing missions trying to boost their next to non-existent chances of getting one.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence,
then, is not an act, but a habit." ARISTOTLE |
Phaethon
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Posted - 2004.04.20 17:52:00 -
[148]
Has there been any more double drops lately?
Or is there just nothing dropping at all.
WTB. Infifitrator I drones |
Rancid Mare
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Posted - 2004.05.29 10:30:00 -
[149]
Originally by: Phaethon
Has there been any more double drops lately?
Or is there just nothing dropping at all.
if you have a look thru the mission section youll see the whole agent systems is falling apart.
with no apparent care from ccp on the issue.
very worrying indeed.
Rancid Mare of the EveMarshals.
Our Webby
Recruitement Videos here |
CodeFreeze
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Posted - 2004.05.29 11:32:00 -
[150]
Originally by: Gan Howorth
Just a thought..is anyone aware that computers cannot generate truly random numbers, it will create the same "random" number in a given situation. I think the C64 could because it used its on board sound chip's white sound (analogue) generator to do so. Don't mean to stir anything up but could this explain why the same people are getting the same rare BPs twice over.
In fact, it's rather easy to generate a truly random number from a pseudo-random one. The trick I use all the time is to get the current date-time and Exclusive-Or (combine) the number with the pseudo-random one. Since the exact time of the event right down to a hundredth second was chosen by a human, the number is almost perfectly random. There are other semi-random things you can easily factor in, such as, say, the current number of players online etc.
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