| Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 [13] [13]:: one page |
| Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
Droidster
   |
Posted - 2004.08.03 00:58:00 -
[361]
(Note I have posted a link to this thread in the Shiva market discussion)
Response to Xavier Arron who accuses me of pulling "figures out of thin air" - I do 50-100 market transactions every day. In the commodities and regions I deal I know the market cold and know my competitors, their resources and practices. My estimates are based on this experience.
For your information Xavier every serious trader has a keen idea of both their individual and collective impact on the price/volume of the market. For example, in at least one core empire region I am the ONLY bidder on holoreels right now. (Holoreels are handed out by the thousands to mission runners.) That means if I say the price is 30, it is 30. If I say it is 50 it is 50. If I set no bid, the price is ZERO -- the mission runners can stash, trash or haul, but they can't do what they want to do: get cash. I know EXACTLY what the liquidity is on that item because I am making it--all of it.
In mins I am only one of many bidders, nevertheless I have a strong knowledge of the impact my bids have on the market and I know how my competitors affect the market as well. For example, Codaarix has stated earlier he would have to take down 90% of his volume (from 20 billion to 2 billion). This exactly matches my own estimates: I will have to take down about 90% of my volume. Any trader, not just me, can tell you what the effect of this will be on prices and I assure you my estimates are CONSERVATIVE estimates of what will happen to prices if 90% of the volume on the market is cancelled.
_____________________________________________
I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 00:58:00 -
[362]
(Note I have posted a link to this thread in the Shiva market discussion)
Response to Xavier Arron who accuses me of pulling "figures out of thin air" - I do 50-100 market transactions every day. In the commodities and regions I deal I know the market cold and know my competitors, their resources and practices. My estimates are based on this experience.
For your information Xavier every serious trader has a keen idea of both their individual and collective impact on the price/volume of the market. For example, in at least one core empire region I am the ONLY bidder on holoreels right now. (Holoreels are handed out by the thousands to mission runners.) That means if I say the price is 30, it is 30. If I say it is 50 it is 50. If I set no bid, the price is ZERO -- the mission runners can stash, trash or haul, but they can't do what they want to do: get cash. I know EXACTLY what the liquidity is on that item because I am making it--all of it.
In mins I am only one of many bidders, nevertheless I have a strong knowledge of the impact my bids have on the market and I know how my competitors affect the market as well. For example, Codaarix has stated earlier he would have to take down 90% of his volume (from 20 billion to 2 billion). This exactly matches my own estimates: I will have to take down about 90% of my volume. Any trader, not just me, can tell you what the effect of this will be on prices and I assure you my estimates are CONSERVATIVE estimates of what will happen to prices if 90% of the volume on the market is cancelled.
_____________________________________________
I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 01:20:00 -
[363]
RE: Deadeye - SMALL ORDERS MAKE UP FOR BIG ONES?
Deadeye and others have suggested that the ability to place remote orders might compensate for the drop in volume. For example, instead of opening a bid for 500K units I could open a remote bid for 50K units and repeat that ten times each time it filled.
First of all the devs have suggested a second "improvement" that will cap the total number of orders--something that will actively penalize trying to do this.
Second of all the remote bid functionality is only within a region meaning you still have to travel there. The ability to remote just the region is strictly a fine-tuning change that saves a few hops here and there. It will in no way come close to compensating for the loss in volume. To do what you propose I would need to (1) have view of multiple regions simultaneously, and (2) be able to set bids immediately in any of those regions without having to travel to them. Neither of these things is proposed for Shiva. (Orestes suggestion that sometime in the indefinite future it might be possible is idle speculation that has no bearing on the change we are facing immediately in Shiva).
Third of all, even if these conditions were met they would only mitigate the damage caused by the loss of volume not compensate for it. The reason for this is two-fold: (a) the smaller chunked orders would not satisfy a large seller, if 500K shrinks to 50K, it is 90% loss in liquidity no matter how you slice it, (b) the paperwork and time expenditure for me and other traders would skyrocket. I already have hundreds of pages of hand-annotated market references and notebooks full of checklists. Having to track 10 times the number of orders AND travel to the region to instantly renew them on a sellout is not a likely scenario.
_____________________________________________
I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 01:20:00 -
[364]
RE: Deadeye - SMALL ORDERS MAKE UP FOR BIG ONES?
Deadeye and others have suggested that the ability to place remote orders might compensate for the drop in volume. For example, instead of opening a bid for 500K units I could open a remote bid for 50K units and repeat that ten times each time it filled.
First of all the devs have suggested a second "improvement" that will cap the total number of orders--something that will actively penalize trying to do this.
Second of all the remote bid functionality is only within a region meaning you still have to travel there. The ability to remote just the region is strictly a fine-tuning change that saves a few hops here and there. It will in no way come close to compensating for the loss in volume. To do what you propose I would need to (1) have view of multiple regions simultaneously, and (2) be able to set bids immediately in any of those regions without having to travel to them. Neither of these things is proposed for Shiva. (Orestes suggestion that sometime in the indefinite future it might be possible is idle speculation that has no bearing on the change we are facing immediately in Shiva).
Third of all, even if these conditions were met they would only mitigate the damage caused by the loss of volume not compensate for it. The reason for this is two-fold: (a) the smaller chunked orders would not satisfy a large seller, if 500K shrinks to 50K, it is 90% loss in liquidity no matter how you slice it, (b) the paperwork and time expenditure for me and other traders would skyrocket. I already have hundreds of pages of hand-annotated market references and notebooks full of checklists. Having to track 10 times the number of orders AND travel to the region to instantly renew them on a sellout is not a likely scenario.
_____________________________________________
I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Ranerd
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 01:40:00 -
[365]
hey maybe the market wont crash. Maybe u just dont like the idea, and u only think the market will crash. Be nice if CCP can tell us if this new idea will still work after the 100s of posts concerned about this new rule.
|
Ranerd
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 01:40:00 -
[366]
hey maybe the market wont crash. Maybe u just dont like the idea, and u only think the market will crash. Be nice if CCP can tell us if this new idea will still work after the 100s of posts concerned about this new rule.
|
Rosenbaum
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 03:12:00 -
[367]
 Originally by: Oveur
This is one way being thought about (and yes, we are aware of the consequences, it's stated on the Market page that it specifically prevents trading on "margin"),
Well, I do have one request whether or not this is implemented. Please find another term for this than buying on "margin." Not just because as your scare quotes imply you realize it isn't buying on "margin", but because someday you may implement loans and a system to really buy on margin. It'd be a shame if you had nothing to call it because you'd already used the term 
|
Rosenbaum
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 03:12:00 -
[368]
Originally by: Oveur
This is one way being thought about (and yes, we are aware of the consequences, it's stated on the Market page that it specifically prevents trading on "margin"),
Well, I do have one request whether or not this is implemented. Please find another term for this than buying on "margin." Not just because as your scare quotes imply you realize it isn't buying on "margin", but because someday you may implement loans and a system to really buy on margin. It'd be a shame if you had nothing to call it because you'd already used the term
|
Droidster
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 03:44:00 -
[369]
I agree with Rosenbaum on this. A lot of the posters on this thread apparently don't understand what buying on margin is. The mis-use of the term in the Shiva feature statement is adding to the confusion. Buying stock "on margin" means buying stock with money loaned by the brokerage and using the stock itself as the collateral.
Making an unsecured market order has absolutely nothing to do with buying something on margin. No loan is involved, no collateral is involved. There is no relation whatsoever. I know most people out there are not financial experts but at least could we try to use the basic terminology correctly.
_____________________________________________
I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 03:44:00 -
[370]
I agree with Rosenbaum on this. A lot of the posters on this thread apparently don't understand what buying on margin is. The mis-use of the term in the Shiva feature statement is adding to the confusion. Buying stock "on margin" means buying stock with money loaned by the brokerage and using the stock itself as the collateral.
Making an unsecured market order has absolutely nothing to do with buying something on margin. No loan is involved, no collateral is involved. There is no relation whatsoever. I know most people out there are not financial experts but at least could we try to use the basic terminology correctly.
_____________________________________________
I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
MOOstradamus
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 06:02:00 -
[371]
Oveur said to move this discussion to the appropriate Market thread in the Shiva forum so stop posting here !!
MOOrovingian "Following & supporting EVE (since Jan 2001) is like wiping your arse with sandpaper."
|
MOOstradamus
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 06:02:00 -
[372]
Oveur said to move this discussion to the appropriate Market thread in the Shiva forum so stop posting here !!
MOOrovingian "Following & supporting EVE (since Jan 2001) is like wiping your arse with sandpaper."
|
Danton Marcellus
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 12:15:00 -
[373]
Seriously? I never read the Market forum, with them highways I can get everything I want myself so there's no reason.
I can imagine only the people who like the trade channel actually make use of the market forum and if that holds true then they're all enjoying one big grouphug already.
Convert Stations
|
Danton Marcellus
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 12:15:00 -
[374]
Seriously? I never read the Market forum, with them highways I can get everything I want myself so there's no reason.
I can imagine only the people who like the trade channel actually make use of the market forum and if that holds true then they're all enjoying one big grouphug already.
Convert Stations
|
Orestes
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 12:33:00 -
[375]
Oveur meant this thread, Danton 
Going to lock this as well
Join the IC! |
Orestes
|
Posted - 2004.08.03 12:33:00 -
[376]
Oveur meant this thread, Danton
Going to lock this as well
Join the IC! |
| |
|
| Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 [13] [13]:: one page |
| First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |