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Arushia
Nova Labs
New Eden Research
   |
Posted - 2009.05.07 21:06:00 -
[1]
Or why ship+subsystems will never hit CCP's 300m price goal.
Hull prices are now down to 500m or below. But they are irrelevant. Hulls have no slots. Hull have joke stats. You cannot undock, assemble, or even preview a tech-3 hull without subsystems. So let us not be distracted by hull production. Let us instead look at subsystem production; a process which is utterly broken.
Step 1: The buy-in.
To start, you'll need a POS tower, Experimental Lab, and fuel. The lab can be used an infinite number of times, and the POS and fuel may be used for other purposes, so they are difficult to factor in to per-job costs. Then there's the subsystems engineering skills to train: Rank 5, 10m each with some heavy prerequisites.
Then, per job, you will need:
A Malfunctioning relic: Prices stable at 20-25m (Intact and Wrecked discussed below)
A R.A.M. Hybrid Tech: 0.5m
A racial Hybrid Tech decrpytor: 1-2m
3 Subsystems Engineering datacores: Prices stable at 15-20m each
Now that you've got your 67-87 million buy-in, you must offer it to;
Step 2: The Random Number God
The Random Number God governs many things in EvE. ECM (another thread), Invention, but none more so than Reverse Engineering.
For Invention, you may offer up many additional sacrifices to satisfy the Random Number God. You may offer unto Him a Decryptor, that He may bless you with more successful jobs or more runs. You may also offer up a base item, so that He may be pleased and grant you more successful jobs.
For Reverse Engineering your only hope of increasing His favor is to offer up an additional 40-60 million for an Intact relic. Do not even contemplate offering Him a Wrecked Relic, for He shall smite you and put a plague on your labs.
Then, if the Random Number God is mollified, he may grant you a successful job. Or is it?
The Random Number God is a cruel and capricious deity. He may bless you with a Proteus Propulsion - Interdiction Nullifier Blueprint.
Or He may mock you, and curse you with a Proteus Propulsion - Gravitational Capacitor Blueprint. There are no base items, no decryptors, no expensive relics that may mollify Him here.
If a Malfunctioning Relic gives you a 30% "success" chance, then you have only a 7.5% chance of a real success and getting the BPC you wanted. And at current rates, each ticket to this lottery costs 4-5 U.S. Dollars.
Now that you have been cursed with a Gravitational Capacitor Blueprint, do you hope to recoup part of your losses by building and selling it? Prepare to lose even more ISK.
New Eden Research, where your research gets done! |
Arushia
Nova Labs
New Eden Research
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 21:07:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Arushia on 07/05/2009 21:08:11
Step 3: Who the frak fits this?
You are never, ever going to sell the built Gravitational Capacitor because its design is fundamentally flawed. Warp capacitor need has not been a problem for cruiser-class ships since Red Moon Rising (2006). A 15% per level warp speed bonus would be highly useful on a Freighter in its long 0.6au/s trip between stargates. On a 3.0 au/s Cruiser it is pointless and unneccessary.
Even if you are foolish enough to build this dren, you hit another problem. The build requirements are the same as the 3 real propulsion subsystems, especially the coveted Interdiction Nullifier.
A Warp Core Stabilizer, a Mircowarpdrive, and a Nanofiber Structure are fundamentally different modules, with different build requirements to reflect that. The propulsion subsystems are just as different, but share the exact same build requirements.
This cripples the "invisible hand" of the market. Material prices cannot fall due to lack of demand, because they are the exact same materials in the exact same quantities needed for high-demand subsystems. The only thing that can fall is the manufacturer's profit margin.
Step 4: You require more vespene gas
That's right: resource shortages. Subsystem construction require high quantities of Neurovisual Input Matrix, which is at 6.5m and continually increasing. This practically screams that there is a shortage. Unlike Tritanium, resource harvesters cannot choose to harvest more Neurovisual Input Matrix, and the Random Number God (above) determines when it drops from Sleeper salvage.
Step 5: Solutions
5a: Remove the random output from Reverse Engineering. This is mandatory. Random output was a major issue with Cloak, AF, and Recon invention when it was first introduced. It was fixed. Its intentional re-introduction as part of Reverse Engineering is unforgivable. The developer responsible for this must also spend a month mining Veldspar as penance.
5b1: Remove the need for special Subsystems Engineering datacores. Change subsystem engineering to use relevant empire datacores instead. If they are good enough for hull engineering, then they are good enough for subsystem engineering. Re-purpose the Subsystem Engineering skills, or remove them and giev those who trained them a training speed bonus to compensate.
5b2: If that seems too radical, then increase the drop-rates of Subsystems Engineering datacores. Not slightly. We're talking 10-20x the current droprate here.
5c: Re-design the worthless subsystems. Change the Gravitational Capacitor subsytems to Chassis Optimizations. Boost the bonus given by Fuel Catalysts to 15% or 20% per level.
5d: Diversify subsystem build requirements. This will allow market forces to drive build costs properly.
5e: Introduce Sleeper module drops to their loot tables. These modules would be utterly incompatible with current systems (cannot be fitted), but could be used as base-items to boost the chance of a Reverse Engineering attempt, or re-processed to provide a few units of Sleeper salvage. Market forces will determine which of these is more profitable.
Conclusion
I have, hopefully provided a list of everything that is wrong with Tech-3 production. It is understandable that some things come "pre-nerfed". This essay and your reponses will hopefully let CCP know which pre-nerfs to remove.
New Eden Research, where your research gets done! |
Some Advisor
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 21:28:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Some Advisor on 07/05/2009 21:33:50
step1:
do sites, have fun in wh space, throw the loot and stuff into the Pos you have.
when you got something you can do, do reversenginering or make some polymers, or components or all of them (thats what i do)
no buy in cost associated (yesyes "its not free" i know, but since i want sleepertags to sell i can just grab the datacores that lie in the cans, too)
"random output when Inven^h^h^h^hReverse Engineering"
yep youre right, but then i remember Invention started that way, too
maybe in future tweaks we can "pick" what subsection we want to inve^h^h^h^hRE.
so it becomes easier
currently we got 7 of the 9 Polymers (damn you C320 and C540, but i refuse to BUY.. Can that be found in class5, or JUST in class6?)
those neurovisual things and the other item that ppl whine about low drop... seems i got plenty of those either.
Finishing up some Skills, will be able to start on the subsections pretty soon.
the Hulls i got will take a bit longer (damn you starship enginering V)
so in soon time, there will be more supply, and i also believe others are doing the Same.
remember that it takes time to setup,skill and do the "new stuff". T2 took a while, too :P
iam not too unhappy, just need to find some c320 and C540 and then its all there :)
edit:
5e sounds interesting. you mean the stuff liek "collision measurements" "tests reports" effect based stuff?
|
Arushia
Nova Labs
New Eden Research
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 21:34:00 -
[4]
 Originally by: Some Advisor
step1:
do sites, have fun in wh space, throw the loot and stuff into the Pos you have.
when you got somethign you can do, do reversenginering or make some polymers, or components or all of them (thats what i do)
no buy in cost associated (yesyes "its not free" i know, but since i want sleepertags to sell i can just grab teh datacores that lie in the cans, too)
Since we've just established that your time is worthless, please give me some of those free datacores. I'll take some free veldspar while your'e at it.
New Eden Research, where your research gets done! |
Some Advisor
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 21:46:00 -
[5]
i didnt say its worthless.
but you need to "farm" sleepers to get some salvage for the processing to components, and the sleepertags also yield money.
so while io do that (lets say ina radar or magnosite), why shoudlnt i open up the cans and grab the stuff aswell
besides, i think the sleepertags might need a small pricedrop, i clearly get too rich :P
|
Trimutius III
Legio Octae
Rebellion Alliance
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 21:52:00 -
[6]
Tech 2 was 4-6 times more expensive 2 years ago. So what? Soon we'll have enough of goods on market. and Tech 3 Production will functionate normally. Soon i mean about 4-6 monthes...
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I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist ¬ Trimutius |
Isaac Starstriker
Amarr
Solaris Operations
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 21:58:00 -
[7]
I'd like to know:
A: Why the hell everyone keeps whining about it. This is EVE ONLINE, nothing happens fast, get over it. T3 Production is FINE.
B: Where is this 300MIL Price Tag figure coming from?! Last I heard, the best you could hope for was 600Million isk.
--Isaac
Isaac's Haul*Mart - Closed
|
Trimutius III
Legio Octae
Rebellion Alliance
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 22:01:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Arushia
5a: Remove the random output from Reverse Engineering. This is mandatory. Random output was a major issue with Cloak, AF, and Recon invention when it was first introduced. It was fixed. Its intentional re-introduction as part of Reverse Engineering is unforgivable. The developer responsible for this must also spend a month mining Veldspar as penance.
Invent had random output and still T2 have became cheap, even before Cloak, AF and Recons was fixed. So this is not really needed.
Quote:
5b1: Remove the need for special Subsystems Engineering datacores. Change subsystem engineering to use relevant empire datacores instead. If they are good enough for hull engineering, then they are good enough for subsystem engineering. Re-purpose the Subsystem Engineering skills, or remove them and giev those who trained them a training speed bonus to compensate.
5b2: If that seems too radical, then increase the drop-rates of Subsystems Engineering datacores. Not slightly. We're talking 10-20x the current droprate here.
Maybe additional R&D agents? B ut i don't know if it's really needed... Still i think soon there will be enough datacores.
Quote:
5c: Re-design the worthless subsystems. Change the Gravitational Capacitor subsytems to Chassis Optimizations. Boost the bonus given by Fuel Catalysts to 15% or 20% per level.
It's balancing question. Though "worhtless" subsystems, for those who can't afford good subsystems.
Quote:
5d: Diversify subsystem build requirements. This will allow market forces to drive build costs properly.
Wait few monthes and soon many people will have that skills.
Quote:
5e: Introduce Sleeper module drops to their loot tables. These modules would be utterly incompatible with current systems (cannot be fitted), but could be used as base-items to boost the chance of a Reverse Engineering attempt, or re-processed to provide a few units of Sleeper salvage. Market forces will determine which of these is more profitable.
Is it really needed?
Quote:
Conclusion
I have, hopefully provided a list of everything that is wrong with Tech-3 production. It is understandable that some things come "pre-nerfed". This essay and your reponses will hopefully let CCP know which pre-nerfs to remove.
I can't see if it's really needed... Lets wait say about half a year and if nothing changes then i'll agree that T3 need changes...
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I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist ¬ Trimutius |
IceAero
Amarr
Shadow Company
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 22:12:00 -
[9]
I'm in charge of T3 production for my corp, so I can honestly say that (surprisingly) the OP is 100% correct about the problems.
I'm not sure what the solution is, but I do believe the scale of these issues was entirely unforeseen by CCP.
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Trimutius III
Legio Octae
Rebellion Alliance
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 22:29:00 -
[10]
The problem is not in drop. The problem that there is not enough farmers yet... Invent have played it role totally only after 2 years after implementation. So that's seems totally normal... what did u expected after 2 monthes? 2 monthes is not a time at all, 6-8 monthes maybe but not 2...
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I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist ¬ Trimutius |
Arushia
Nova Labs
New Eden Research
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 22:35:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Trimutius III
Originally by: Arushia
5c: Re-design the worthless subsystems. Change the Gravitational Capacitor subsytems to Chassis Optimizations. Boost the bonus given by Fuel Catalysts to 15% or 20% per level.
It's balancing question. Though "worhtless" subsystems, for those who can't afford good subsystems.
You missed the part where the worthless subsystems use EXACTLY the same materials to build in EXACTLY the same quantities as the good subsystems. Thus there can be no balancing of the production price.
Quote:
5d: Diversify subsystem build requirements. This will allow market forces to drive build costs properly.
Wait few monthes and soon many people will have that skills.
I was referring to the material requirements, not the skills.
New Eden Research, where your research gets done! |
Trimutius III
Legio Octae
Rebellion Alliance
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 22:42:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Arushia
You missed the part where the worthless subsystems use EXACTLY the same materials to build in EXACTLY the same quantities as the good subsystems. Thus there can be no balancing of the production price.
I didn't missed that. Don't forget that BPC does have a price too, so price of subsystems will be balanced by the price of BPC. If u are lucky u get good BPC if not then not so good BPC. Yes it's connected to Random, but Random makes our life interesting...
Quote:
I was referring to the material requirements, not the skills.
They will be maybe diversified themselves as soon as there will be x10-x50 more farmers in WHs. Just let time pass and soon there will be a POS in almost every Jxxxxxx system... :)
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I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist ¬ Trimutius |
Blane Xero
Amarr
The Firestorm Cartel
|
Posted - 2009.05.07 23:54:00 -
[13]
T2 prices dropped alot faster after Invention came in than T3 has already existed. It was a month tops before 500m hulks were half price already.
Random in eve is Evil. We don't WANT random. We don't want to have to jump through 20 different hoops that may or may not catch fire as we jump through them only to get told to "Try again next time!"
______________________________________________
Haruhiist since December 2008
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Trimutius III
Legio Octae
Rebellion Alliance
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 00:01:00 -
[14]
Edited by: Trimutius III on 08/05/2009 00:02:01
And i'm still quite sure that problem is not enough farmers in W-space. Just when more people will come there we'll get much cheaper parts much more reliques many datacores and so on... Just give people some time... Number of farmers will grow, and then u'll get ur x10-x20 drop... Not because of drop boost but because there is x10-x20 more people farming... There is very many WH in there, but most of them are not farmed yet... So u need more farmers not a boost of a drop or something like that... (Invent wasn't connected with farmers that hard, so it went into masses faster)
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I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist ¬ Trimutius |
Elridon
Caldari
Interstellar Corporation of Exploration
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 00:02:00 -
[15]
Quote:
They will be maybe diversified themselves as soon as there will be x10-x50 more farmers in WHs. Just let time pass and soon there will be a POS in almost every Jxxxxxx system... :)
That would completely screw over T3 entirely. Having a POS in w-space completely nerfs the spawns of sites; having a POS in w-space makes the number of sigs decrease to almost 0 non-wormholes, and very vew CAs. A POS in nearly every w-system = nearly no resources to build T3 with.
As far as OP's post, I almost completely agree. With regards to Neurovisual Input Matrixes though, I think their current price is an abnormal fluxuation; four or five days ago they were around 3.5m, yesterday they were pushing 7.5m, and today they are down to roughly 6m. Prices on gases are starting to even out, most have stopped going down anyway.
At current prices (using Intact pieces, reacting the polymers yourself, and assuming no failures [I can't correct for this really as I have no idea on proper success rates for RE yet) the price for a T3 cruiser costs 2.52b for a triplet making the production cost per ship around 840m, not including pos fuel costs. This isn't too bad, but if you go for four RE tries per subsystem (possibly hopefully maybe giving you the subsystems you want for all five types if the Random Number God is pleased today) you're looking at 2,286m in RE bits, 1,440m in materials; a 1,242m end cost for the buyer, if no profit was made anywhere.
Vote Captain Pompous for 3rd CSM! |
Trimutius III
Legio Octae
Rebellion Alliance
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 00:06:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Elridon
That would completely screw over T3 entirely. Having a POS in w-space completely nerfs the spawns of sites; having a POS in w-space makes the number of sigs decrease to almost 0 non-wormholes, and very vew CAs. A POS in nearly every w-system = nearly no resources to build T3 with.
It was a joke about POS...
Many WH that appears in New Eden isn't farmed yet so it's a matter of time... we need x10-x20 more farmers i agree. More farmers mean more drop until there is something to farm...
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I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist ¬ Trimutius |
aldarrin
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 00:09:00 -
[17]
I support the OP's point of view. There should be a bit more predictability to the reverse engineering. Also, $h177y modules / components / subsystems shouldn't be as resource expensive as the really shiny ones.
I especially enjoyed the dripping amount of sarcasm. And the Star Craft reference. Got a good chuckle from that. I further move that people in this forum should endeavor to be this entertaining, regardless of their POV.
--
Flame on. |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Shadow Reapers
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 00:31:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Turiel Demon on 08/05/2009 00:34:32
Exceptionally well worked out overview of the current situation/problem Arushia, thanks.
My corp produces T3 too, and my CEO who does the actual production is tearing his hair out over the subsystem lottery.
On limited resources:
http://www.eve-search.com/thread/1063489/page/1#1
http://www.eve-search.com/thread/1057565/page/1#1 -> My own thread about NIM units... well, I'm glad I bought a few hundred at 2.5 to 3m that's for sure, they're back up at 7-9m.
On the other hand look at gas: C540 is next to worthless due to overharvesting now; only C320, at a third of its price a week ago is worth harvesting at all at ~100k per unit.
Picture A
This shows how complex the production is quite nicely... it's not reached a stage that enough people can do it yet to understand the problems with it... please listen to the people that are trying to do it already everyone, rather than just spout random supply & demand stuff.
Also, it has come to my attention that I'm really in need of a proper signature. |
Some Advisor
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 00:34:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Some Advisor on 08/05/2009 00:35:49
Originally by: Elridon
Having a POS in w-space completely nerfs the spawns of sites; having a POS in w-space makes the number of sigs decrease to almost 0 non-wormholes, and very vew CAs. A POS in nearly every w-system = nearly no resources to build T3 with.
...here we go again...
by now it got (most likely) established that POSes do *NOT* affect Spawn.
It surely DOES appear so since "youre always there and dont have lots of sties to work with".
but iam living for some time in "my" System, and stuff *DOES* respawn regulary.
Of course it has not as much as when i entered it, but thats because we kileld most stuff off.
416sided dice, clear one "wh-room", have spawn it in another.
*sigh*
edit: one Question, where can c320/540 be found? Class6 only or class5 also?
so far i didnt saw it in class3-4
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Shadow Reapers
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 00:42:00 -
[20]
Though GM's are unreliable, and this is information passed on through a third party, I would like to note that there is indication that POS do affect spawns:
Linky
Also, it has come to my attention that I'm really in need of a proper signature. |
Elridon
Caldari
Interstellar Corporation of Exploration
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 00:55:00 -
[21]
Every time I have been in w-space with a POS in it (generally a class 3 system), even if no one is there for one or two days, and I go in to find an empty system, it does not fill up. Maybe one or two anomalies, a few wormholes, maybe one grav and one ladar site, but that is it.
From what I have seen, C540 clouds can spawn in class 4 space, but c320 clouds are only in c5/6 space.
Vote Captain Pompous for 3rd CSM! |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Shadow Reapers
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 01:05:00 -
[22]
C320 and C540 only spawn in 2 sites:
Vital Core (most common in C5) has 500 C320 and 6000 C540
Instrumental Core (uncommon, almost exclusive to C6) has 500 C540 and 6000 C320.
It's possible that a Vital Core could show up in C4 w-space, but even then it would only have enough C320 for 35 minutes of harvesting by one person.
Also, it has come to my attention that I'm really in need of a proper signature. |
Hexor V
I.M.M
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 07:11:00 -
[23]
I'm all for continued discussion on possible fixes to the "problem." Or I'd like CCP to change t3 ships from "Strategic Cruisers" to "Luxury Cruisers."
____
YHBT
|
Trimutius III
Legio Octae
Rebellion Alliance
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 08:54:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Arushia
Step 5: Solutions
5a: Remove the random output from Reverse Engineering. This is mandatory. Random output was a major issue with Cloak, AF, and Recon invention when it was first introduced. It was fixed. Its intentional re-introduction as part of Reverse Engineering is unforgivable. The developer responsible for this must also spend a month mining Veldspar as penance.
5b1: Remove the need for special Subsystems Engineering datacores. Change subsystem engineering to use relevant empire datacores instead. If they are good enough for hull engineering, then they are good enough for subsystem engineering. Re-purpose the Subsystem Engineering skills, or remove them and giev those who trained them a training speed bonus to compensate.
5b2: If that seems too radical, then increase the drop-rates of Subsystems Engineering datacores. Not slightly. We're talking 10-20x the current droprate here.
5c: Re-design the worthless subsystems. Change the Gravitational Capacitor subsytems to Chassis Optimizations. Boost the bonus given by Fuel Catalysts to 15% or 20% per level.
5d: Diversify subsystem build requirements. This will allow market forces to drive build costs properly.
5e: Introduce Sleeper module drops to their loot tables. These modules would be utterly incompatible with current systems (cannot be fitted), but could be used as base-items to boost the chance of a Reverse Engineering attempt, or re-processed to provide a few units of Sleeper salvage. Market forces will determine which of these is more profitable.
I thought a little and i agree only with 5a.
5a. Yes i should agree that their must be more decryptors. U should be able to choose not only race but also type of subsystem/hull (i mean that with a little bit reduced chance of success u can choose to have Defensive Subsystem (random) or Offensive Subsystem (random)) I think that this decryptors are needed because sometimes their could be bottlenecks that there is not enough of certain types of subsystems to make a T3 ship at least with "worthless subsystem"...
5b. As i said if their would be more farmers u'll have more datacores beacuse the most of sites still isn't farmed yet, So there could possible be more data cores without boosting of drop...
5c. Totally useless subsybsystems will be boosted when it would be proved that almost nobody buys them, but they would be cheaper then other because of that (don't forget that BPC has it's own cost and if u are unlucky u get bad BPC, and maybe even lose money, i understand why u don't want to lose ur money but it's life)
5d. More farmers will drive market. We'll need boost only if farmers would ask for more wormholes and there would be still not enough material, but i doubt that it would be so...
5e. This would be needed only in case that is desribed by me in a little bit before.
Originally by: Turiel Demon
C320 and C540 only spawn in 2 sites:
Vital Core (most common in C5) has 500 C320 and 6000 C540
Instrumental Core (uncommon, almost exclusive to C6) has 500 C540 and 6000 C320.
It's possible that a Vital Core could show up in C4 w-space, but even then it would only have enough C320 for 35 minutes of harvesting by one person.
And with gases i do agree. I said somewhere about this disbalance even before Apocrypha was released.
-------------------------------------------------
I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist ¬ Trimutius |
Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 12:25:00 -
[25]
I just comment on the randomeness part of subsystems.. it's bad and needs to be changed.
If you have a base chance of 30% and the outcome is 3 different subsystems, you have no say in, the chance to get the WANTED subsystem is 10% (30% x 33,3%).
With Apo 1.1 we got a 4th subsystem, so the chance to get the right subsystem will fall to 7,5% (30% x 25%).
When the 5th subsystem gets introduced the chance for the right subsystem falls to 6%.
As ongoing discussions on the industry & science forums and also on MD forums show, we have a large quantity of people who produce the stuff by calculating relevant market costs (which is needed for such a DEEP-production-tree.
If all 5 subsystems are wanted, the above doesn't matter, as you can sell them for their "crafting"-costs, with RE-costs for datacores, RAM, decryptors and relicts inclusive.
But what happens when for subsystems there is 1 that REALLY sucks? Well, the other build and sold subsystems of that class NEED to make up for it by their sale-price or most of producers wont make them.
Lets crunch the numbers for ideal cases (all subsys bpc equaly distributed, no failure streaks) as worst case (10 failures in a row or only bad-bpcs) will kill your wallet anyways:
1 bad module, 4 are wanted..
With 30% RE chance you need at least 3 RE jobs more (overall 5 / 30% = 16,67 jobs) than you would need and get a bpc you cant produce from. So the cost for all other BPC's rise by 20%.
2 bad modules, 3 are wanted..
We need 6 pointless RE jobs, which rises costs for modules built by 40%.
3 bad modules, 2 are wanted..
60% rise in RE-costs for the built modules..
I REALLY HOPE there are armies of "the sleeper stuff I aquire is free"-people around, as T3 will need them.. badly, when things stay like this.
My proposal would be to rework the faction-decryptors to subsystem-type decryptors. This way CCP stays in control of how much from each they'll spawn, the wh-traveler get the spoils for good decryptor types and the producers can actually avoid bad-bpc and cross-subsidisation as they need to do now.
Forge '07 on Sale
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Hawk Firestorm
|
Posted - 2009.05.08 13:51:00 -
[26]
TBH the pricing of T2 especially BS ships is completely ridiculous, it precludes their use in the main stream for anything much more than mission running or hanger orniments.
ALL content should be affordable and practical to use THROUGHOUT the game the determining factor being skills and where the individual player is in the game, I'm sorry 1 Bill for a BS with no sensible loss coverage as with T1 ships and other high value content is insane and bad design.
And T3 well 3-4 bill for a Cruiser common!
The market as a whole production to their use needs lookin at for all T1+ ships, the current system has been insane for years.
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Marmios
Elite Aeronautic Developer Syndicate
Kraftwerk.
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Posted - 2009.05.08 16:02:00 -
[27]
The op is almost 100% correct in my POV. My corp stopped going into WHs cause theres barely a reason to go there. Just too much waste of time for gambling at a POS. Ive bought over 2 billion in relics and more then 75 % failed. Not to mention the datacores. They were all malfunctional. So we should atleast get something out of it.
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DigitalCommunist
November Corporation
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Posted - 2009.05.08 16:15:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Hawk Firestorm
TBH the pricing of T2 especially BS ships is completely ridiculous, it precludes their use in the main stream for anything much more than mission running or hanger orniments.
ALL content should be affordable and practical to use THROUGHOUT the game the determining factor being skills and where the individual player is in the game, I'm sorry 1 Bill for a BS with no sensible loss coverage as with T1 ships and other high value content is insane and bad design.
And T3 well 3-4 bill for a Cruiser common!
The market as a whole production to their use needs lookin at for all T1+ ships, the current system has been insane for years.
lols, T2 BS are no more expensive than HACs are relative to their T1 counterparts.
The bolded part is especially hilarious (read: stupid).
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DigitalCommunist
November Corporation
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Posted - 2009.05.08 16:18:00 -
[29]
Also.. and here's a thought, but if the lottery/chance nature of T3 production is causing you to lose a lot of money, then perhaps you should
- stop buying raw materials while they're extremely expensive
- sell your harvested materials instead of trying to use them yourself
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Arushia
Nova Labs
New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.05.08 18:20:00 -
[30]
Originally by: DigitalCommunist
Also.. and here's a thought, but if the lottery/chance nature of T3 production is causing you to lose a lot of money, then perhaps you should
- stop buying raw materials while they're extremely expensive
- sell your harvested materials instead of trying to use them yourself
That is indeed the conclusion I have reached, and I see several other T3 producers now reaching. This leads me to suspect that T3 prices will either stagnate or rise as fewer people produce them. Eventually, even the freetards will realize that they could be making better profits elsewhere.
New Eden Research, where your research gets done! |
Professor Perplex
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Posted - 2009.05.08 22:02:00 -
[31]
i dont produce myself but this sounds pretty well thought out.
free bump from me.
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Natalie Squishy
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Posted - 2009.05.08 22:27:00 -
[32]
The OP is absolutely spot on with the source of the high price of Tech 3. There are too many failures and too many ifs and too few datacores for T3 to succeed as it stands. I don't know if the OP's solution is the right one, but I do know that very little reason exists for me to continue if all of the profits (or even more) from a good blueprint are sunk trying to make another T3 blueprint.
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DigitalCommunist
November Corporation
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Posted - 2009.05.08 22:47:00 -
[33]
Edited by: DigitalCommunist on 08/05/2009 22:49:05
Originally by: Arushia
That is indeed the conclusion I have reached, and I see several other T3 producers now reaching. This leads me to suspect that T3 prices will either stagnate or rise as fewer people produce them. Eventually, even the freetards will realize that they could be making better profits elsewhere.
I have no idea how you reached that conclusion. As time goes by and more people get the skills/POS ready, prices will drop until an equilibrium point is reached where suppliers are only competing with themselves on ship demand and not for producers' material demand.
Producers will be a dime a dozen, just as they are with invention. And just as with invention, the mean cost of failure will be tacked onto the price of the ship. Producers will either see a slightly negative profit margin, to break even, to slightly positive. The people who see a positive margin are probably the ones that make in volume, so the profit only offsets the time they spent.
In other words, the rewards of doing production are going to match the risk and effort: not very high. Still good money if you enjoy it and would rather do that than mission grind in high sec. Meanwhile the suppliers are the ones getting the big money, and mostly the class 5-6 wormhole corp expeditions at that. That, in my opinion is a great thing. But even if its big money, it'll probably be split among a team of people and the individual share sizes remain about the same.
The ones getting rich from all this are probaly the same people who figured out how to run 10/10s with two people and some alts.
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Shadowsword
Epsilon Lyr
Tau Ceti Federation
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Posted - 2009.05.09 08:28:00 -
[34]
Originally by: DigitalCommunist
I have no idea how you reached that conclusion. As time goes by and more people get the skills/POS ready, prices will drop until an equilibrium point is reached where suppliers are only competing with themselves on ship demand and not for producers' material demand.
Producers will be a dime a dozen, just as they are with invention. And just as with invention, the mean cost of failure will be tacked onto the price of the ship. Producers will either see a slightly negative profit margin, to break even, to slightly positive. The people who see a positive margin are probably the ones that make in volume, so the profit only offsets the time they spent.
In other words, the rewards of doing production are going to match the risk and effort: not very high. Still good money if you enjoy it and would rather do that than mission grind in high sec. Meanwhile the suppliers are the ones getting the big money, and mostly the class 5-6 wormhole corp expeditions at that...
If the equilibrium point could be reached without outside intervention, we'd already be far closer to it than we are right now. That is espescially true for subsystems. There is no big skill of material requirement to go out in WH space.
The paramount thing in determining costs and profits for the entire production chain is the market price for the end product. And not whatever number the seller is demanding, but the number at which point there's enough interested buyers to absorb the production.
That number, whatever it is, sure as hell isn't going to be much above command ship price. What does that mean? If you do some reverse cost calculations, you'll end up with values for the harvestable materials that are way too low to justify the risk of wormhole space, compared to high-sec or 0.0.
I suspect there's already a decrease in the number of players in WH space, now that the novelty factor is wearing off.
CCP already removed random results for invention previously because it screwed up the market. Remember the market saturation with 50M Lachesis, sold at a loss, because everyone wanted Arazus.
Why they would repeat that particular mistake is behond me.
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emf
Amarr
Knights Of the Black Sun
Somalian Pirates We
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Posted - 2009.05.09 19:05:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Shadowsword
Originally by: DigitalCommunist
I have no idea how you reached that conclusion. As time goes by and more people get the skills/POS ready, prices will drop until an equilibrium point is reached where suppliers are only competing with themselves on ship demand and not for producers' material demand.
Producers will be a dime a dozen, just as they are with invention. And just as with invention, the mean cost of failure will be tacked onto the price of the ship. Producers will either see a slightly negative profit margin, to break even, to slightly positive. The people who see a positive margin are probably the ones that make in volume, so the profit only offsets the time they spent.
In other words, the rewards of doing production are going to match the risk and effort: not very high. Still good money if you enjoy it and would rather do that than mission grind in high sec. Meanwhile the suppliers are the ones getting the big money, and mostly the class 5-6 wormhole corp expeditions at that...
If the equilibrium point could be reached without outside intervention, we'd already be far closer to it than we are right now. That is espescially true for subsystems. There is no big skill of material requirement to go out in WH space.
The paramount thing in determining costs and profits for the entire production chain is the market price for the end product. And not whatever number the seller is demanding, but the number at which point there's enough interested buyers to absorb the production.
That number, whatever it is, sure as hell isn't going to be much above command ship price. What does that mean? If you do some reverse cost calculations, you'll end up with values for the harvestable materials that are way too low to justify the risk of wormhole space, compared to high-sec or 0.0.
I suspect there's already a decrease in the number of players in WH space, now that the novelty factor is wearing off.
CCP already removed random results for invention previously because it screwed up the market. Remember the market saturation with 50M Lachesis, sold at a loss, because everyone wanted Arazus.
Why they would repeat that particular mistake is behond me.
It's far from being reached, a good percentage of people I bump into in WH space are in pods near their ship wrecks. Corps have POSs setup in WH space but have no idea how to run the sites. Sure it's not gonna drop to command ship prices but I don't see how you can say it's near equilibrium.
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Shadowsword
Epsilon Lyr
Tau Ceti Federation
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Posted - 2009.05.09 19:19:00 -
[36]
Originally by: emf
It's far from being reached, a good percentage of people I bump into in WH space are in pods near their ship wrecks. Corps have POSs setup in WH space but have no idea how to run the sites. Sure it's not gonna drop to command ship prices but I don't see how you can say it's near equilibrium.
The equilibrium will be reached when pvpers will have a hard time deciding which to buy, a T2 cruiser, T2 BC, or T3 cruiser.
Right now a T3 hull + 5 subsystems still cost something like 2 billions. Not anywhere near the price range that would ensure a wealthy usage, and so a wealthy industry.
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Halycon Gamma
Caldari
The Flying Tigers
United Front Alliance
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Posted - 2009.05.09 22:06:00 -
[37]
This is all a matter of margins.
I gave up on wormhole space as a way to make ISK as a combat pilot. There are faster safer and easier things to unload my ammo into, to turn a profit. Sure, if I want to find a gang and do high end wormholes, I probably could come out much better. But logistically that doesn't work out for my catch as catch can playtime schedule. When I can devote blocks of time to Eve, actually having fun is high up on my priority list. Not the grind for isk to pay for the fun part of the game. So for me, wormholes are a fail. And I'm willing to bet, for a lot of people like me, wormholes are a fail.
That fail trickles down into production costs for Tech3. If people have figured out they can't turn a profit at it, or can turn a profit faster doing things that already exist; what's the point of playing? New content, blah blah blah. Well, already seen the new content, new has worn off. We'll now return you to you're regularly scheduled game already in progress....
To be honest, Level 4 missions and the current mineral market killed Tech3 production before it even began. To get costs down to what CCP says they want costs to be requires hoards of people playing in wormhole space farming all the things required in the production chain. That just isn't happening. The hoards of people are still sitting in highsec doing level 4s, buying modules off market from level 4s to reprocess for under the cost of actually mining them, and to a lesser extent sitting in 0.0 safehavens swinging for the rafters on a faction spawn to sell to the other two groups. They are not in wormhole space.
Tech2 production works because it doesn't require active player participation to get tech2 goop. You set up a POS, feed it, and pull in your reward. Sure it can be a pain, but when you spread that pain across an entire corp, or even a few trusted individuals in a corp or alliance.. its very very painless process for everyone involved. Tech3 on the other hand requires active participation from everyone, and for people to be active they must turn a profit at it or they won't do it.
The production chain is only PART of the reason tech3 is failing to meet costs everyone was shooting for. Mostly its just that the base its built upon isn't stable. And its all CCP's own fault. Eve trains us all to think in the margins. And if the margins aren't there, we aren't going to do it.
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Fennicus
Amarr
United Trade Coalition
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Posted - 2009.05.09 23:23:00 -
[38]
Nice post.
It made me wonder who, in a years time, will want a T3 cruiser.
T2 ships generally fill some niche, and with the possible exception of black ops, you'll encounter these in PvP or PvE situations.
T3 doesn't fit any role, apart from bubble-breaking in PvP, but who's willing to spend ~300 million for that. And someone with that much money is perhaps already running far more lucrative level 4 missions in a far cheaper battleship. But you already know this, it's been talked about a billion times.
As such, as people in wormholes grow more frustrated and bored with the current manufacture mechanics (the encounters themselves are just fine!) I imagine that they'll slowly leave (c.f. FW), and with both little demand and little interest in supply the price isn't going to drop but will be as bad as it was on day one.
So unless some of the OP changes can be made, or other T3 ships are soon released, this is all going to go the way of FW...
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Mavrk
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Posted - 2009.05.10 05:52:00 -
[39]
Originally by: Arushia
Edited by: Arushia on 07/05/2009 21:08:11
Step 4: You require more vespene gas
You forgot to construct additional pylons...
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Perry
Amarr
The X-Trading Company
RAZOR Alliance
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Posted - 2009.05.10 06:25:00 -
[40]
If most T3 Subsystem combinations were not worse then T2 Cruisers, i might have been interested in T3 Ships. But i decided to just ignore that feature of EvE.
So for me it would also work to just boost the crappy subsystems to "awesome" level to get my attention up.
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King Rothgar
Death of Virtue
MeatSausage EXPRESS
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Posted - 2009.05.10 06:34:00 -
[41]
What really concerns me is that t3 may go the way of advanced drones. The advanced drones are something no one uses (I've yet to see one) and are produced much the same way as t3 ships are. They require running rogue drone sites to gather materials and then you have to do some sort of invention/reverse engineering to make the bpc's I think (I really don't know about production side). I've run a few of these sites but I'd have to spend days running endless sites to get the materials to make just 1 drone. I'd likely lose 2-3 drones along the way. T3 is following this same model. You must run the plex's to get the raw materials and this is followed by a long and complicated production process with a lot of chance based aspects to it. In 1 year if nothing changes, it is very likely that new players won't even know t3 ships exist until they are a year or two into the game. Even then it will just be something they see in eft, never in game.
There is a very simple solution to this problem: multiply all drops by 20. So rather than spending an afternoon with 6 guys in a class 5 wh to gather the raw materials to make a half a cruiser (never mind actually making it), make it so they have enough materials to make 10. This includes the gas harvesting part, it takes ages to mine the gas even with 5x t2 harvesters. That must change.
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Shadowsword
Epsilon Lyr
Tau Ceti Federation
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Posted - 2009.05.10 07:13:00 -
[42]
Originally by: King Rothgar
There is a very simple solution to this problem: multiply all drops by 20. So rather than spending an afternoon with 6 guys in a class 5 wh to gather the raw materials to make a half a cruiser (never mind actually making it), make it so they have enough materials to make 10. This includes the gas harvesting part, it takes ages to mine the gas even with 5x t2 harvesters. That must change.
Drops/harvesting indeed need a drastic boost (maybe not 20X, but at least 5X). This, coupled with the possibility to choose which subsystem you'll get if RE succeed, would go a long way to correct the situation.
Otherwise, you're right, for the moment it's the aumgented drones blunder all over again.
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Halycon Gamma
Caldari
The Flying Tigers
United Front Alliance
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Posted - 2009.05.10 20:47:00 -
[43]
Edited by: Halycon Gamma on 10/05/2009 20:55:26
I've been thinking about this.. and my thinking is probably completely backwards so feel free to throw a BS flag. Also, fair warning, this is going to be long-winded and rambling.. just try to keep up in my disjointed thought process. But.. here goes..
Wormhole space doesn't actually have any ISK in it, none what so ever. It has items which can hopefully be sold for isk. This means I have to sell my items to people who want what I have and have isk, producers. But producers don't actually make isk either, they are middle men. They go between people who actually "make isk", and suppliers, the people who supply them with raw materials. So who makes isk? Mission runners and ratters. Money wise, everyone else is simply a support system to allow them to "produce" isk, or someone who finds an underhanded way to syphon off their profit. Now, back to wormholes..
If I want to sell my wormhole loot and have isk of my own... I need to sell it to production guys who make something out of it. And they in turn have to be able to sell it at a cost that mission runners and ratters are willing to pay.
For all of that to work out, several things have to happen. Producers need two things, volume of raw materials. The more there are of something, the less it costs. They also need a stable production environment, somewhere that when you add A and B, you'll always get C. Currently they don't have either. Whenever they do reverse engineering they could get anything, who knows, they could end up with a muffler for an AMC Gremlin, and that doesn't really help them at all in keeping costs down. Supply is in some ways even more desperate. The market is absolutely swamped with some items making them absolutely worthless, and other items are so rare that finding one out in WH space might as well come with an all access pass to Mr Wonka's Chocolate Factory.
So what is CCP to do? They could streamline the production pipe to make it more stable, thats probably a good thing all round. But the volume question is actually the more important of the two. If you make shooting stuff in wormhole space more productive to making isk, people will stop doing missions and ratting, so less isk is actually entering the game to buy all of the shiny tech3 ships.
Its a flawed system all the way around, and they should have learned their lesson with mining. Tech3 resource gathering is basically mining. You go out, fire at stuff, and collect resources. Same as going out, turning on a mining laser, and collecting resources. And there isn't any money in mining right now. Why? Because its easier to go straight to the isk production factory itself, and make "real isk", instead of goods to be traded for isk. Upon learning this, what did CCP do to fix the issue? They added insane loot tables to missions so more mining materials would enter the game through people also making the isk. As fixes go, this was a very simple and elegant fix. Which is why I get so angry anytime I read about someone wanting to nerf loot tables, they are being short sighted. Loot tables allowed more minerals into the game, so more production, more ships, more everything that makes playing eve fun. Sure, it screwed the mining profession for the most part, and only the most dedicated miners who hunt for the most rare materials turn anything like a profit now, but overall it helped the game. Thats an over-simplification, as veld is still the most mined ore around, which is another part of why the fix was so elegant, veld is mined by new players to get their feet wet in ship handling. Literally anyone can do it, so they gave new players something to do while learning the ropes, that is actually needed by the game to work.
All and all, mission runners and ratters are the bedrock which eve is built on at this point, you can't change it without throwing everything else out of whack. Anyway, remember I said I'd ramble.. thats part of the rambling. Continued......
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Halycon Gamma
Caldari
The Flying Tigers
United Front Alliance
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Posted - 2009.05.10 20:48:00 -
[44]
Which brings me back to Wormholes again. If the entire game is setup around mission runners providing everything that is good and needed to the masses, and everything else in the game being an extension of that.. How then, do you make tech3 resource gathering profitable, but not so profitable people stop doing mission grinds?
My answer, you add isk to wormholes. Not a lot of isk, but put it in parity with mission running. Mission runners get Isk & Minerals. Wormhole Pilots get Isk & Tech3 Parts. What we are shooting for here, is that its an either or proposal. Either way you go, you get the same amount of isk. The difference is that if you go the wormhole route, you also get items for tech3 resource production instead of minerals.
Now some of you will say ôWait a minute, didn't you just imply that you think all those minerals injected through mission runners is needed for the game to work? If more people go to wormhole space, we'll have less minerals, and the market will crash crash crash.ö. And if my opinion on all of that is right, yep, it will. But the mechanic to bring more minerals into the game by other means already exists, even if its a bit banged up and busted. Its called Mining. Mind you, mining sucks, we all think mining sucks, except for those few masochistic souls who like assaulting light sockets with their unmentionables. But they keep complaining about needing to make more isk for their self mutilating and insanity inducing tendencies.. so we might as well give them the ôput up or shut upö chance to prove themselves. The game will need a lot more minerals once people switch over to wormhole grinding as well as mission grinding, and if they can supply the quantity needed to keep the market stable after a change of that magnitude at a price people are willing to pay, they should be allowed to keep the isk they rightfully earn from it. But if they can't.. loot tables might need jiggered around again to keep enough minerals in game.
So what does all this get us? It gets us tech3 resources in volumes that keep prices of tech3 materials down, and in turn, tech3 items. But if done right, it also keeps the isk and mineral markets relatively stable to what they are now without upsetting the balance of everything else in the game in the process. As I said.. I could be completely off base.. so feel free to flame away. Thats just my take on it all.
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Trimutius III
Legio Octae
Rebellion Alliance
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Posted - 2009.05.10 21:18:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Halycon Gamma
many bla-bla-bla that there is no ISK in WH
U're wrong there is ISK in WH. Sleepers loot is:
Ancient Coordinates Database
Neural Network Analyzer
Sleeper Data Library
Sleeper Drone AI Nexus
This 4 things isn't needed for T3 production. Why they are there? U may sell them for ISK to NPC and get ISK from nowhere. So this things are instead of bounty. So u get:
Neural Network Analyzer = 50k isk
Sleeper Data Library = 200k isk
Ancient Coordinates Database = 1,5 mill isk
Sleeper Drone AI Nexus = 5 mill isk
Not enough ISK from wormholes??? Or really? Remember when u sell something to NPC ISK are coming from nowhere... So there is plenty ISK in W-space...
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I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist ¬ Trimutius |
Narfas Deteis
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Posted - 2009.05.10 23:28:00 -
[46]
Looks like CCP likes this "random" part of invention and RE, so... maybe another solution.
What about introducing T3 modules? No, not for everything. Few selected ones should be anough. With existing RE mechanics.
Sample: if you put Engeenering Relic with Amarr hybrid decryptor you can receive back:
1) Amarr T3 Engeenering subsystem BPC (3 runs)
2) Amarr hybrid decryptor
3) datacore(s)
4) sorry, nothing
So it works now. New thing:
5) 10 run BPC for T3 Cap Recharger (22% recharge rate bonus, 15 tf CPU usage)
4 races, 5 subsystems, 1 T3 module for each subsystem means 20 new, carefully selected modules.
Mission runners shall go crazy for such things. T3 production become attractive. Market shall flow.
T3 ships are expensive and almost useless. Maybe CCP should introduce some demanded T3 items with attractive (but still quite expensive) prices.
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Jack Coutu
Gallente
Duty.
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Posted - 2009.05.11 04:46:00 -
[47]
Everytime I blow up a fleet of ships hurting sleepers, I wonder how long it will delay my Proteus from reaching a reasonable price.
Meh, I don't really care.
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Trimutius III
Legio Octae
Rebellion Alliance
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Posted - 2009.05.11 13:18:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Narfas Deteis
T3 ships are expensive and almost useless. Maybe CCP should introduce some demanded T3 items with attractive (but still quite expensive) prices.
Market will solve some problems... T3 ships will not be always expensive... T3 items would not be much cheaper, maybe they will even drive market that T3 ships will too expensive... So no this will not help... Let us wait soon there will be more farmers in W-space and more items needed for production... When prices of T3 ships stop decreasing we will see there real price... Now T3 ships are really more expensive then they should be, but they will not be so expensive always i hope, when price of Legion+Subsystem and/or Tengu+subsystems will fall to reasonable 300-500 mill ISK i maybe will by one, they have very attractive parameters in some setups...
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I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist ¬ Trimutius |
Slave 2739FKZ
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Posted - 2009.05.12 00:51:00 -
[49]
Edited by: Slave 2739FKZ on 12/05/2009 00:53:37
Originally by: Halycon Gamma
This is all a matter of margins.
I gave up on wormhole space as a way to make ISK as a combat pilot. There are faster safer and easier things to unload my ammo into, to turn a profit. Sure, if I want to find a gang and do high end wormholes, I probably could come out much better. But logistically that doesn't work out for my catch as catch can playtime schedule. When I can devote blocks of time to Eve, actually having fun is high up on my priority list. Not the grind for isk to pay for the fun part of the game. So for me, wormholes are a fail. And I'm willing to bet, for a lot of people like me, wormholes are a fail.
That fail trickles down into production costs for Tech3. If people have figured out they can't turn a profit at it, or can turn a profit faster doing things that already exist; what's the point of playing? New content, blah blah blah. Well, already seen the new content, new has worn off. We'll now return you to you're regularly scheduled game already in progress....
To be honest, Level 4 missions and the current mineral market killed Tech3 production before it even began. To get costs down to what CCP says they want costs to be requires hoards of people playing in wormhole space farming all the things required in the production chain. That just isn't happening. The hoards of people are still sitting in highsec doing level 4s, buying modules off market from level 4s to reprocess for under the cost of actually mining them, and to a lesser extent sitting in 0.0 safehavens swinging for the rafters on a faction spawn to sell to the other two groups. They are not in wormhole space.
Tech2 production works because it doesn't require active player participation to get tech2 goop. You set up a POS, feed it, and pull in your reward. Sure it can be a pain, but when you spread that pain across an entire corp, or even a few trusted individuals in a corp or alliance.. its very very painless process for everyone involved. Tech3 on the other hand requires active participation from everyone, and for people to be active they must turn a profit at it or they won't do it.
The production chain is only PART of the reason tech3 is failing to meet costs everyone was shooting for. Mostly its just that the base its built upon isn't stable. And its all CCP's own fault. Eve trains us all to think in the margins. And if the margins aren't there, we aren't going to do it.
Best post in this thread and the real problem with T3 (as usual we fall back to the damn lvl4 problem). Don't fall in common mistake (usually done too often too by RL specialist) when thinking about economic problems of overlooking the sociological/psycholical joint circunstances.
Because novelty is gone and player participation will be each day worse (specially for these experienced and large groups who can exploit really the top content where the resource bottleneck is, c5-6 systems) T3 is not going to be fixed by market forces over time, indeed it will only get worse. More if you add all the technical problems descripted by the OP.
To this we have to add the "poor" performance of T3 ships (most subsystems) comapred to T2 cruiser hulls and/or CS.
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galphi
Gallente
Unitary Senate
Unitary Enterprises
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Posted - 2009.05.12 02:53:00 -
[50]
Edited by: galphi on 12/05/2009 02:53:22
Excellent thread going here, very educational to those of us who haven't gone into the production side of things but laugh at the current prices on t3 ships and subsystems. I was watching those prices slowly come down for a while, but now the quantity on the market is drying up and the prices are going back up in a big way yet again. This should make it clear that the system is indeed broken. Such a shame CCP put in thousands of hours of work into t3 to have it turn out like this. Yes those mythical augmented drones were a failure but at least CCP didn't dump so much effort into making them. ;)
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Letrange
Minmatar
Chaosstorm Corporation
Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2009.05.12 04:57:00 -
[51]
Edited by: Letrange on 12/05/2009 04:58:19
/me wanders in to look at the T3 trolling
/me shakes his head
The buy in argument is worthless - it's less than T2
The random number god seems to be better than T2 and we've been dealing with that.
If you've been an idiot and reverse engineering with wrecked subsystem you deserve to get taken to the cleaners. End of story. The only wrecked items that are worth reverse engineering are the hulls - and that's because they use high sec datacores.
Of course the data cores are expensive - they drop in about the right quantity to use for reverse engineering all the malfunctioning that are droping - when you start using them on wrecked that makes a shortage of them for the malfunctioning jobs which drives the price up. Telling a "production guru" to stop doing something stupid when they haven't looked at the numbers is pointless though. As it stands it's the datacores that are the major part of the reverse engineering costs (look an hour of pos time is just not that expensive in proportion to the costs of the materials involved atm) so using them in reverse engineering attempts that have the most chance of failure is pretty stupid.
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Arushia
Nova Labs
New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.05.13 00:27:00 -
[52]
Originally by: Letrange
Edited by: Letrange on 12/05/2009 04:58:19
/me wanders in to look at the T3 trolling
/me shakes his head
The buy in argument is worthless - it's less than T2
The random number god seems to be better than T2 and we've been dealing with that.
Exactly which invention job costs 80m per attempt?
Were you inventing cloaks and recons back when the output was random?
Quote:
If you've been an idiot and reverse engineering with wrecked subsystem you deserve to get taken to the cleaners. End of story. The only wrecked items that are worth reverse engineering are the hulls - and that's because they use high sec datacores.
Did you read my post? All calculation were based off Malfunctioning relics. The only mention of wrecked relics was that they should never be used.
New Eden Research, where your research gets done! |
Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.05.13 02:48:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Arushia
Exactly which invention job costs 80m per attempt?
Were you inventing cloaks and recons back when the output was random?
Jump freighter invention. About 45 mil in datacores & decryptors, plus the freighter BPC. That's the only example I can think of. T2 battleship invention is around the same order of magnitude though.
But what does cost have to do with anything? I'd run invention jobs which cost a billion or ten a try if I had a reasonable expectation of RoI.
The guestimates of less around 7.5% success rate on t3 subsystem invention jobs is much worse than *any* t2 AFAIK though.
Quote:
Did you read my post? All calculation were based off Malfunctioning relics. The only mention of wrecked relics was that they should never be used.
And you could not be more right. I get a giggle out of the expectation that the entire t3 production chain will eventually be satisfied completely by freetards who enjoy being blown up regularly. No other industrial pursuit is predicated upon widespread freetardation in a PvP area.
Competition will NOT be increasing outside of the "I do this for fun only" industrialists. Who, with some luck, will not last long enough to get the skills and industrial backing to continue functioning.
Let me put it this way. If prices on t3 ships increased from the current 2.5B (for the primo version) to 7.5B it's almost certain we'd see an increase in w-space farming. What do you think will happen if the price *decreases* by the same factor of 3 to under a billion? I suspect all but the most egregious freetards would just go run level 2 missions in NPC 0.0 instead of gas mining for ~3 million/hour (after logistics and PvP losses).
The current pricing is a bargain. Unless CCP changes drop rates or requirements for construction you won't be seeing T3 cruisers at such low prices for long. Even 0.0 alliances running w-space forced labor camps won't bring prices down.
BTW, DigiComm: manufacturers do have quite a bit of risk. The risk of nerf (or nerf announcement) while product is in the cooker. The longer and more complex the pipeline, the higher the risk of the finished product being worth significantly less than the cost of materials. This risk is inordinately high with current T3, IMO.
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Arushia
Nova Labs
New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.05.13 03:12:00 -
[54]
Originally by: Clair Bear
Originally by: Arushia
Exactly which invention job costs 80m per attempt?
Were you inventing cloaks and recons back when the output was random?
Jump freighter invention. About 45 mil in datacores & decryptors, plus the freighter BPC. That's the only example I can think of. T2 battleship invention is around the same order of magnitude though.
D'oh! I forgot about Jump Freighters.
New Eden Research, where your research gets done! |
Tamahra
Danke fuer den Fisch
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Posted - 2009.05.13 08:11:00 -
[55]
Originally by: Trimutius III
U're wrong there is ISK in WH. Sleepers loot is:
Ancient Coordinates Database
Neural Network Analyzer
Sleeper Data Library
Sleeper Drone AI Nexus
This 4 things isn't needed for T3 production. Why they are there? U may sell them for ISK to NPC and get ISK from nowhere. So this things are instead of bounty. So u get:
Neural Network Analyzer = 50k isk
Sleeper Data Library = 200k isk
Ancient Coordinates Database = 1,5 mill isk
Sleeper Drone AI Nexus = 5 mill isk
Not enough ISK from wormholes??? Or really? Remember when u sell something to NPC ISK are coming from nowhere... So there is plenty ISK in W-space...
there is isk in anomalies, but not enough. if they doubled the value of the standard sleeper drops, then it might be worth doing the anomalies. as of now, since salvage drops are almost worth nothing, youll only have the drops as a revenue, and its just not enough. its 0.0 you know, and comes with a high risk.....
doing anomalies in wh-space is maybe 1/3 or 1/2 of the revenue i could get when im doing lvl 4 missions in high sec.
if the sleeper salvage was worth something, then it might be ok, but it isnt.
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Trimutius III
Legio Octae
Rebellion Alliance
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Posted - 2009.05.13 08:43:00 -
[56]
Originally by: Tamahra
there is isk in anomalies, but not enough. if they doubled the value of the standard sleeper drops, then it might be worth doing the anomalies. as of now, since salvage drops are almost worth nothing, youll only have the drops as a revenue, and its just not enough. its 0.0 you know, and comes with a high risk.....
doing anomalies in wh-space is maybe 1/3 or 1/2 of the revenue i could get when im doing lvl 4 missions in high sec.
if the sleeper salvage was worth something, then it might be ok, but it isnt.
I agree that there should be more ISK from 1st and 2nd W-spaces...
Because it take for me 20 minutes to do anomalies in 1-st and 2-nd W-spaces in a drake. And what do i get? About 3 mill from 1-st and 4-5 mill for 2nd... Plus possible salvage 8-10 millions if u are lucky (if not then 1-3 mill) and after time it would be even cheaper... in comparisson from 3rd W-spaces i get about 30 mill in same drake with salvage about 40 mill...
And it takes me 20 minutes to do 1-st or 2-nd anomalies and 30 minutes to do 3rd anomalies... So 1-st and 2-nd should be boosted and difference in ISK is up to 5-6 times... I think 1-st and 2-nd anomalies should be at least more isk-effective then 3-rd missions, though 3-rd anomalies are already more isk effective then 4-th missions...
P.S. I never tried 4-th and 5-th anomalies so don't have statistic for them...
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I am envoy from nowhere in nowhere. Nobody and nothing have sent me. And though it is impossible I exist ¬ Trimutius |
Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2009.05.13 10:09:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Clair Bear
The guestimates of less around 7.5% success rate on t3 subsystem invention jobs is much worse than *any* t2 AFAIK though.
It's nice being quoted, though the numbers had been made up and are only applicable to wrecked relict reverse engineering and their base chance if I remember correctly..
So I did some tables to look at it for several base chances and bring some hard data to the discussion:
1) actual status (4 subsystems per subsystem group)
2) future status (5 subsystems per subsystem group)
The results are the same though.. the cost of "wanted" subsystems RE-costs will be negatively influenced (the successfull ss's need to pay for the unsuccessfull and also unwanted BPC). And as you can see.. we're talking not small numbers here.. it's remarkable.
Forge '07 on Sale
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.05.13 15:05:00 -
[58]
Originally by: Tres Farmer
The results are the same though.. the cost of "wanted" subsystems RE-costs will be negatively influenced (the successfull ss's need to pay for the unsuccessfull and also unwanted BPC). And as you can see.. we're talking not small numbers here.. it's remarkable.
Interesting table. One thing we know about the random number generator used for invention is it's very "streaky." It is entirely possible to get a very long streak of a dozen unwanted subsystems. Which means it's way too risky to do this unless you are planning on running several thousand RE jobs.
Which means there must be a huge demand for T3 to support non-gamblers.
At the point of 5th subsystem anyone not planning on running at least a thousand RE jobs would be better off playing online poker and raising every hand hoping to suck out.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2009.05.13 16:04:00 -
[59]
Originally by: Clair Bear
Originally by: Tres Farmer
The results are the same though.. the cost of "wanted" subsystems RE-costs will be negatively influenced (the successfull ss's need to pay for the unsuccessfull and also unwanted BPC). And as you can see.. we're talking not small numbers here.. it's remarkable.
Interesting table. One thing we know about the random number generator used for invention is it's very "streaky." It is entirely possible to get a very long streak of a dozen unwanted subsystems. Which means it's way too risky to do this unless you are planning on running several thousand RE jobs. ...
Well.. add on top of that failure streaks and you get a nice picture.
Btw. I would like to point out the last row in each table.. it shows with 100% base chance for EVERY RE-job, that due to unbalanced module-stats, the cost for wanted modules have an inbuilt markup, which can't be avoided. Or spoken otherwise.. in worst case (4 bad subsystems in group, only one wanted) 80% of the sleeper stuff is simply wasted.
Forge '07 on Sale
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Shadow Reapers
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Posted - 2009.05.13 16:45:00 -
[60]
Well, the simple solution would be 'make the unwanted modules not suck' but that is of course far easier said than done...
Also, it has come to my attention that I'm really in need of a proper signature. |
Chi Quan
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.05.13 17:39:00 -
[61]
interesting read
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Ceterum censeo blasters need some tracking love |
Arushia
Nova Labs
New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.05.15 08:31:00 -
[62]
No love in the Apocrypha 1.2 patch?
New Eden Research, where your research gets done! |
Zostera
Minmatar
Honour Bound
Sc0rched Earth
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Posted - 2009.05.15 08:54:00 -
[63]
Edited by: Zostera on 15/05/2009 08:56:30
Edited by: Zostera on 15/05/2009 08:55:32
Originally by: DigitalCommunist
Edited by: DigitalCommunist on 08/05/2009 22:49:05
Originally by: Arushia
The ones getting rich from all this are probaly the same people who figured out how to run 10/10s with two people and some alts.
This may in fact be part of the problem. A few people have mentioned that it isn't the gas etc that is an issue, it is the component drops from high high level sleepers needed for reverse engineering.
As a PvP player I want to spend as little time as possible lurking around in PvE content, and maximise my time lurking about in a Recon. The way I currently achieve this is by running plex's with a small group of other players. We divide ourselves and all scout a couple of constellations, mark the 7/10 and higher, come back and run them all. Doing this one weekend out of the month covers my PvP losses and leaves my with a good margin of profit. It also has several advantages...
 Nobody is going to collapse the stargate and leave us searching for a route out 40 jumps from home.
We don't need to deploy a pos and live there. We usually have a safe alliance pos in system or 1 maybe 2 jumps away.
We don't need to worry about local.
The items we collect are of a stable market value and income is predictable.
We can clear 10/10's using just 4 ships max in a little under an hour.
Wormholes from a 0.0 PvP focused players(ok my)point of view just don't offer a significant increase in the time, risk and reward equation. The only reason I would want to run them is to gather materials myself to construct a T3 ship "cheaply", but I don't have/won't have any skills to do it because I am a PvP player. So if I want a T3 ship, I can run 10/10's and buy one.
I know the above isn't everyones point of view that lives in 0.0 as a PvP'er, but I hope it adds another perspective to the argument.
Zos
Vote Mazzilliu 09 CSM |
Halycon Gamma
Caldari
The Flying Tigers
United Front Alliance
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Posted - 2009.05.15 11:07:00 -
[64]
Why does everyone always assume the market will fix everything?
I mean sure, for most problems the market will self adjust and fix itself. Thats sort of the entire reason for having a market in the first place.
But if influences out of the control of the playerbase have an effect on the market, its not going to fix itself. It will get as close to balanced as it can, but it will still never get to where everyone thinks it should be.
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Arushia
Nova Labs
New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.05.22 10:31:00 -
[65]
Edited by: Arushia on 22/05/2009 10:31:35
Would a dev saying "we are/are not satisfied with the current state of T3 production" be too much to hope for?
New Eden Research, where your research gets done! |
ollobrains
Caldari State Inc.
People for Organised Peace
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Posted - 2009.05.23 11:04:00 -
[66]
once u find and get into a class 5 system they never connect to 00 or anywhere lese just other class 5 systems ive been stuck for 4 days collapsed 8 class 5 but i shant give up as far as the drops ccp likes grind put up with it
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DukeJoost1
The Last Solution Inc
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Posted - 2009.05.25 16:20:00 -
[67]
I agree fully with OP.
As this site shows http://www.katsucorporation.de/tools/tech3.htm
building a T3 ship requires 52 NIM and 40 MN, significantly more than the single of any of the other w-space cruiser loot.
They are therefore in high demand and lower supply, so the price rises significantly.
Similar with the w-space datacores and relics, they need to cheaper, so more need to spawn.
Why would we need 3 w-space datacores for each, why not just ONE ?
And of course we need selection of the BPC to RE, just as with invention.
ONLY after these issues have been addressed by CCP,
can the T3 market be interesting, profitable and fun.
Fly safe. |
Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2009.05.25 22:35:00 -
[68]
Originally by: DukeJoost1
...
Why would we need 3 w-space datacores for each, why not just ONE ? ...
T3 as it was announced a year ago was supposed to be available as frigs, cruisers and battleships, once it's commenced.
So Tac-Cruiser need 3 DCs per job.. that would imply that Tac-Frigs then use 1 DC per job and Tac-BS 6 DC per job..
On a site note here to (I mentioned it 2 weeks ago in the T3 sticky thread over in Sci&Indu forums).. CCP already did tweak Reverse Engineering somewhat as it increased the chance of one of the skills needed for RE by 100% in the Apoc 1.3 patch.
Forge '07 on Sale
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