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Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13519
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:18:00 -
[541] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:You have 3 questions, 1 station which is an assumption, and you are claiming I haven't answered your question. I'm claiming that you haven't answered my question because you haven't answered my question. And no, it's only one. I restate it slightly rephrased for rhetoric effect. I suppose you could try to separate the two, but then I'd like to hear a good explanation for how it's odd, but not a contradiction, or vice versa.
Anyway, here you go:
By your reckoning GÇö by saying that 100% chance of ship loss is not a risk GÇö one way to increase the risk for gankers is to make sure they lose less and earn more when they gank people. Doesn't that seem odd to you? Doesn't that seem like a contradiction: that lower losses and higher profits mean more risk?
Yes or no. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:27:00 -
[542] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:You have 3 questions, 1 station which is an assumption, and you are claiming I haven't answered your question. I'm claiming that you haven't answered my question because you haven't answered my question. And no, it's only one. I restate it slightly rephrased for rhetoric effect. I suppose you could try to separate the two, but then I'd like to hear a good explanation for how it's odd, but not a contradiction, or vice versa. Anyway, here you go: By your reckoning GÇö by saying that 100% chance of ship loss is not a risk GÇö one way to increase the risk for gankers is to make sure they lose less and earn more when they gank people. Doesn't that seem odd to you? Doesn't that seem like a contradiction: that lower losses and higher profits mean more risk? Yes or no.
To which? Here's something for you, as I know you like math.
Count the question marks. Is it more than 1? Yes or no? "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:29:00 -
[543] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:I don't have a need to kill anything and everything in my sights. Sometimes I have a different goal in mind. Such as transporting. Or exploring. Sometimes I do go on gank sprees though. Mind showing us some of these "gank sprees"? All I see, in hisec, appears to be circumventing concord. Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13519
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:32:00 -
[544] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:To which? To the one question in the post. The one I wanted to be so clear to you that I asked it twice.
A simple yes or no will do, thank you. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:33:00 -
[545] - Quote
Lord Zim wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:I don't have a need to kill anything and everything in my sights. Sometimes I have a different goal in mind. Such as transporting. Or exploring. Sometimes I do go on gank sprees though. Mind showing us some of these "gank sprees"? All I see, in hisec, appears to be circumventing concord.
Sure, it's in whatever system I'm in in highsec when I decide to shoot someone.
Feel free to visit minerbumping.com for a list of videos etc. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Dave Stark
2487
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:34:00 -
[546] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:To which? To the one question in the post. The one I wanted to be so clear to you that I asked it twice. A simple yes or no will do, thank you.
expecting murk to actually answer a question.
silly tippia. Maggie Thatcher. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:35:00 -
[547] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:To which? To the one question in the post. The one I wanted to be so clear to you that I asked it twice. A simple yes or no will do, thank you.
Question 1- Doesn't that seem odd to you? I think having to worry about risk assessment and piracy in highsec period is odd, yes. I also do not think highsec should be as powerful as it is, but I understand why it is.
Question 2- Doesn't that seem like a contradiction: As opposed to it being a contradiction... I don't give it enough thought. I simply do not care. I know the rules. If I shoot someone I'm not supposed to I forfeit my ship regardless of the outcome.
Question 3- that lower losses, and higher profits mean more risk? I think having to worry about risk assessment and piracy in highsec period is odd, yes. I also do not think highsec should be as powerful as it is, but I understand why it is. Repetitive answer, but still fits.
Which of those are the "one question"?
You can't even tell how many questions you ask? Seriously? I figured you were smarter than that. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:43:00 -
[548] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Sure, it's in whatever system I'm in in highsec when I decide to shoot someone.
Feel free to visit minerbumping.com for a list of videos etc. Not seeing any videos, and I don't believe that you're "james 315".
Murk Paradox wrote:ng to worry about risk assessment and piracy in highsec period is odd, yes. Hisec is high security, not perfect security. Worrying about risk assessment and piracy while in hisec seems perfectly acceptable and normal to me. If there hadn't been any need for risk assessment, then it wouldn't be called hisec, but perfsec. Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13521
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:44:00 -
[549] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:[Question 1- Doesn't that seem odd to you? I think having to worry about risk assessment and piracy in highsec period is odd, yes. That wasn't the question, though.
Quote:Question 2- Doesn't that seem like a contradiction: As opposed to it being a contradiction... GǪnor is that Gǣquestion 2.Gǥ
Quote:Question 3- that lower losses, and higher profits mean more risk? GǪand that is not Gǣquestion 3.Gǥ
Quote:I think having to worry about risk assessment and piracy in highsec period is odd, yes. That still wasn't the question.
Quote:Which of those are the "one question"? This one: By your reckoning GÇö by saying that 100% chance of ship loss is not a risk GÇö one way to increase the risk for gankers is to make sure they lose less and earn more when they gank people. Doesn't that seem odd to you? Doesn't that seem like a contradiction: that lower losses and higher profits mean more risk?
Yes or no.
Any further evasions or other stupidity will be interpreted in the only way it can: as a GÇ£yesGÇ¥; as you knowing full well that the ship loss represents a risk and that reducing that risk will not somehow actually increase the risk. Last chance. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:44:00 -
[550] - Quote
Lord Zim wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Sure, it's in whatever system I'm in in highsec when I decide to shoot someone.
Feel free to visit minerbumping.com for a list of videos etc. Not seeing any videos, and I don't believe that you're "james 315". Murk Paradox wrote:ng to worry about risk assessment and piracy in highsec period is odd, yes. Hisec is high security, not perfect security. Worrying about risk assessment and piracy while in hisec seems perfectly acceptable and normal to me. If there hadn't been any need for risk assessment, then it wouldn't be called hisec, but perfsec.
That would take the creative genius of the developers to determine. And as you don't think I'm James315 (I'm not), I do not think you are a developer either.
But if you do some more searching on his blog, I'm sure you'll find a link, or 3, to some highsec ganking.
Enjoy. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |
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Ai Shun
922
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:45:00 -
[551] - Quote
Tippia wrote:[quote=Murk Paradox]If you reject the notion that ship loss is a risk, then you tacitly agree that the best way to increase the risk for gankers is to make sure they lose less and earn more when they gank people. Doesn't that seem odd to you? Doesn't that seem like a contradiction: that lower losses, and higher profits mean more risk?
Ship loss is guaranteed; so that is a cost in the equation. A bit like buying your next card in a game of Hold'em. The benefit is calculated and the attack happens. Then things go over to chance as you may get a bad RNG; etc. and not pop what you're trying to kill. Of course knowledge changes the level of risk there, but there is still an element of chance. You're basically risking covering your costs and potentially making a profit; but you're never going to escape the fact that you paid for that card. That money is in the pot.
If you are going down the "lose less and earn more" path though you'd have to focus on a single event, wouldn't you? E.g. one encounter. You could increase risk by adding further punishment in the future. For (stupid) example:
There is a 1 in 10 chance that a CONCORD police captain decides you're the scum of the universe and instead of the normal security gains; you've got a personal CONCORD vendetta against you for 1d10 days.
That would be a risk where you had the potential to lose more; wouldn't it? Of course, not a part of the current system but I've not read enough to know if we're dealing in hypothetical world or in the current world only. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:50:00 -
[552] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Quote:Which of those are the "one question"? This one: By your reckoning GÇö by saying that 100% chance of ship loss is not a risk GÇö one way to increase the risk for gankers is to make sure they lose less and earn more when they gank people. Doesn't that seem odd to you? Doesn't that seem like a contradiction: that lower losses and higher profits mean more risk? Yes or no. Any further evasions or other stupidity will be interpreted in the only way it can: as a GÇ£yesGÇ¥; as you knowing full well that the ship loss represents a risk and that reducing that risk will not somehow actually increase the risk. Last chance.
You may interpret anything you are of a mind to, I don't much care =).
You can ask a direct single parted question, or you can accept what answers you have received. Up to you. You ask more than one question, you will get more than 1 answer. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:50:00 -
[553] - Quote
I didn't ask for "some hisec ganking", I asked for yours. But I'll just assume that there aren't any, then. vOv Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:54:00 -
[554] - Quote
Tippia, let me ask you something....
What's the risk factor in shooting someone in highsec that is based on chance?
You keep saying risk, like there's a chance you wouldn't lose your ship by shooting someone.
Are you insinuating that you can maybe get away without retribution from Concord? "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:55:00 -
[555] - Quote
Lord Zim wrote:I didn't ask for "some hisec ganking", I asked for yours. But I'll just assume that there aren't any, then. vOv
You seem to think they are different. Feel free to assume what you like. The answer is in the question. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13525
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:58:00 -
[556] - Quote
Ai Shun wrote:Ship loss is guaranteed; so that is a cost in the equation. No. The ship cost is the cost in the equation. The guarantee is the probability. Multiply the two together and you get the risk GÇö in this case the full value of the ship. So, naturally, if we reduce the probability, the risk will go down.
But what Murk is desperately trying to avoid admitting is that if we treat the guarantee as meaning there is no risk, we get the following contradiction: losing the full value of the ship is a lower risk than losing, say, half the value of the ship.
Quote:If you are going down the "lose less and earn more" path though you'd have to focus on a single event, wouldn't you? E.g. one encounter. You could increase risk by adding further punishment in the future. No, we're talking statistics here.
Again, assuming the odd GÇ£non-riskGÇ¥ interpretation of 100% loss, over 10 ganks, you'd lose 10 ships. To add more risk (more than GÇ£noneGÇ¥), we reduce the probability to only 50% so that there is a risk, and over 10 ganks, you'd lose 5 ships. By losing fewer ships and thus earning bigger profits, you apparently risk more because you have GÇ£a riskGÇ¥ rather than GÇ£no riskGÇ¥. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:58:00 -
[557] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Tippia, let me ask you something....
What's the risk factor in shooting someone in highsec that is based on chance?
You keep saying risk, like there's a chance you wouldn't lose your ship by shooting someone.
Are you insinuating that you can maybe get away without retribution from Concord? Losing your ship's a certainty, the risk is whether or not 1) the ships tankier than you expect 2) the cargo is valuable enough 3) enough of the cargo actually drops Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Dave Stark
2490
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 20:59:00 -
[558] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Tippia, let me ask you something....
What's the risk factor in shooting someone in highsec that is based on chance?
You keep saying risk, like there's a chance you wouldn't lose your ship by shooting someone.
Are you insinuating that you can maybe get away without retribution from Concord?
you're ignoring the fact that probability of 1 is still a probability. Maggie Thatcher. |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13525
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:00:00 -
[559] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Tippia wrote:Quote:Which of those are the "one question"? This one: By your reckoning GÇö by saying that 100% chance of ship loss is not a risk GÇö one way to increase the risk for gankers is to make sure they lose less and earn more when they gank people. Doesn't that seem odd to you? Doesn't that seem like a contradiction: that lower losses and higher profits mean more risk? Yes or no. Any further evasions or other stupidity will be interpreted in the only way it can: as a GÇ£yesGÇ¥; as you knowing full well that the ship loss represents a risk and that reducing that risk will not somehow actually increase the risk. Last chance. You may interpret anything you are of a mind to, I don't much care =).
You can ask a direct single parted question, or you can accept what answers you have received. Up to you. You ask more than one question, you will get more than 1 answer.Yes Good, then that's settled.
You agree that the whole notion that 100% chance of ship loss = no risk is nonsense.
Murk Paradox wrote:What's the risk factor in shooting someone in highsec that is based on chance? The risk factors are: Probability: 1 Cost: the value of your ship.
Quote:You keep saying risk, like there's a chance you wouldn't lose your ship by shooting someone. No. I keep saying risk as if there is a probability of ship loss. There is. The probability is 1.
Risk = probability +ù cost. As a result, the risk is the value of your ship.
GǪof course, that's for the attack itself. We'll then have to add in the risks for loot. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:01:00 -
[560] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Ai Shun wrote:Ship loss is guaranteed; so that is a cost in the equation. No. The ship cost is the cost in the equation. The guarantee is the probability. Multiply the two together and you get the risk GÇö in this case the full value of the ship. So, naturally, if we reduce the probability, the risk will go down. But what Murk is desperately trying to avoid admitting is that if we treat the guarantee as meaning there is no risk, we get the following contradiction: losing the full value of the ship is a lower risk than losing, say, half the value of the ship. Quote:If you are going down the "lose less and earn more" path though you'd have to focus on a single event, wouldn't you? E.g. one encounter. You could increase risk by adding further punishment in the future. No, we're talking statistics here. Again, assuming the odd GÇ£non-riskGÇ¥ interpretation of 100% loss, over 10 ganks, you'd lose 10 ships. To add more risk (more than GÇ£noneGÇ¥), we reduce the probability to only 50% so that there is a risk, and over 10 ganks, you'd lose 5 ships. By losing fewer ships and thus earning bigger profits, you apparently risk more because you have GÇ£a riskGÇ¥ rather than GÇ£no riskGÇ¥.
So what happens if I use a destroyer I got as a reward to gank someone in highsec? What did I risk? a security hit? a free ship? All known as cost already and calculated. Those WILL happen the second I pull the trigger. There is no gamble, only calculation.
Beyond that it does not matter what COULD happen, the fact remains I will lose my ship to Concord whether my victim loses anything, or nothing.
Period.
WTF "half" of a ship would I lose? The bottom half? The front half? Concord will take it all in a firey ball. The risk would be IF I could regain any of the lost loot in my own wreck, which would have been written off as loss before I even began, and any salvage from that point would be a bonus, not a risk.
Assume 100% loss and you will never be disappointed. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |
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Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:05:00 -
[561] - Quote
Dave Stark wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Tippia, let me ask you something....
What's the risk factor in shooting someone in highsec that is based on chance?
You keep saying risk, like there's a chance you wouldn't lose your ship by shooting someone.
Are you insinuating that you can maybe get away without retribution from Concord? you're ignoring the fact that probability of 1 is still a probability.
100% is complete. You aren't risking it if you already know there is 0% chance of saving it.
I've never seen Concord miss. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:08:00 -
[562] - Quote
So we've moved on from ignoring the fact concord works as a hisec protector, and on to ignoring what the actual risk in ganking is?
Okay, then. Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Ai Shun
922
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:11:00 -
[563] - Quote
Tippia wrote:No. The ship cost is the cost in the equation. The guarantee is the probability. Multiply the two together and you get the risk GÇö in this case the full value of the ship. So, naturally, if we reduce the probability, the risk will go down.
Okay, that is a better phrasing of it. The probability is 1 though - there is no reduction possible; which to my mind makes it a meaningless part of the equation. The only risk I see is that you may not earn any ISK from the transaction. Admittedly, I'm doped up on flu medication so my brain is half functional at best 
Tippia wrote:To add more risk (more than GÇ£noneGÇ¥), we reduce the probability to only 50% so that there is a risk, and over 10 ganks, you'd lose 5 ships. By losing fewer ships and thus earning bigger profits, you apparently risk more because you have GÇ£a riskGÇ¥ rather than GÇ£no riskGÇ¥.
That would be asinine. I did not read that into anything that Murk wrote; rather - it seems to be a viewpoint somebody is trying to paint him with against what is common sense. |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13527
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:11:00 -
[564] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:So what happens if I use a destroyer I got as a reward to gank someone in highsec? What did I risk? A destroyer. Its fittings (a separate risk calculation). If you want to see it as a cost, your sec rating.
Quote:100% is complete. You aren't risking it if you already know there is 0% chance of saving it. 100% means you have a risk equal to the value of the ship. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Dave Stark
2491
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:12:00 -
[565] - Quote
Lord Zim wrote:So we've moved on from ignoring the fact concord works as a hisec protector, and on to ignoring what the actual risk in ganking is?
Okay, then.
casually ignoring a fact when it gets in the way of murk's point is the way it works when you're conversing with him. Maggie Thatcher. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:14:00 -
[566] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:So what happens if I use a destroyer I got as a reward to gank someone in highsec? What did I risk? A destroyer. Its fittings (a separate risk calculation). If you want to see it as a cost, your sec rating. Quote:100% is complete. You aren't risking it if you already know there is 0% chance of saving it. 100% means you have a risk equal to the value of the ship.
100% means no chance of any other outcome. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:17:00 -
[567] - Quote
Dave Stark wrote:Lord Zim wrote:So we've moved on from ignoring the fact concord works as a hisec protector, and on to ignoring what the actual risk in ganking is?
Okay, then. casually ignoring a fact when it gets in the way of murk's point is the way it works when you're conversing with him.
I have no problem addressing anything you might bring up. Feel free to ask away.
This is a risk vs reward conversation, I merely brought it back on point.
You have until 5p central btw.
And please try to keep the flaming/trolling to a minimum if you can manage it. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:18:00 -
[568] - Quote
Ai Shun wrote:The probability is 1 though - there is no reduction possible; which to my mind makes it a meaningless part of the equation. The only risk I see is that you may not earn any ISK from the transaction. Admittedly, I'm doped up on flu medication so my brain is half functional at best  The risk is that the higher the isk cost, the higher the chance is that you won't make a profit or even get the isk back, for various reasons. Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13527
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:18:00 -
[569] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:100% means no chance of any other outcome. GǪwhich means that the risk is the full value of the cost.
Ai Shun wrote:Okay, that is a better phrasing of it. The probability is 1 though - there is no reduction possible; which to my mind makes it a meaningless part of the equation. The only risk I see is that you may not earn any ISK from the transaction. The ability to reduce it doesn't matter much. It would be exactly as impossible to reduce if it was a hard-coded 50% rather than 100%. What we can do, though, is mitigate it, usually by counterbalancing it with a decent-size risk of a flipping great payout from all the loot we'll be able to scoop (btw, that risk has the exact same GǣissueGǥ: a hard-coded, unalterable probability of 50%GǪ or some such, I'm not sure they've ever actually released the number).
Quote:That would be asinine. I did not read that into anything that Murk wrote; rather - it seems to be a viewpoint somebody is trying to paint him with against what is common sense. Indeed it is asinine, but it is also what you effectively say if you claim that guaranteed ship loss is not a risk. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:21:00 -
[570] - Quote
Ship loss being a cost of chancing a pay out is not an asinine idea.
You already know you aren't walking away from your wreck unscathed. To pretend otherwise is asinine.
But atleast you admit to being asinine. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |
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