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Lord Zim
2349
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Posted - 2013.04.08 21:23:00 -
[571] - Quote
The only one pretending the ship isn't a part of the risk calculation, is you. Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:24:00 -
[572] - Quote
How can you mitigate 100% ship loss?
You would have to win that payout first.
Horse before the cart and all that.
Take the losses, get a payout, INVEST the payout into future attempts. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13527
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:24:00 -
[573] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Ship loss being a cost of chancing a pay out is not an asinine idea. GǪand as luck would have it, no-one has claimed that it is.
What's asinine is to say that by reducing losses and increasing profits, you've increased the risk. You know, the thing you did by claiming that a guaranteed loss was the same as no risk, before you admitted that it was a rather silly position to hold.
Quote:How can you mitigate 100% ship loss? By adding a suitably large risk of loot to the equation. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:24:00 -
[574] - Quote
Lord Zim wrote:The only one pretending the ship isn't a part of the risk calculation, is you.
It's a cost ffs. You don't "risk" it as it doesn't come back. It's godamn fuel =P "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Ai Shun
922
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Posted - 2013.04.08 21:26:00 -
[575] - Quote
Lord Zim wrote:Ai Shun wrote:The probability is 1 though - there is no reduction possible; which to my mind makes it a meaningless part of the equation. The only risk I see is that you may not earn any ISK from the transaction. Admittedly, I'm doped up on flu medication so my brain is half functional at best  The risk is that the higher the isk cost, the higher the chance is that you won't make a profit or even get the isk back, for various reasons.
I can agree with that. I think the main point for me is - you do not risk your ship. That is a cost and it's going to happen - the whole 100% chance / 1p. You're risking the value of that ship against the payout and that is the bit that involves knowledge, RNG, understanding how you can mitigate the cost of losing that ship, the sec-hit, etc. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:27:00 -
[576] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:It's a cost ffs. You don't "risk" it as it doesn't come back. It's godamn fuel =P If you go and put a coin on a slot machine and pull the arm, what have you done? Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13527
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:27:00 -
[577] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:It's a cost ffs. It's a cost with a probability of occurring GÇö aka a risk.
Quote:You don't "risk" it as it doesn't come back. Things coming back are not a requirement for it being a risk. Oh, and we've already explained the risk of fuel.
Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:27:00 -
[578] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Ship loss being a cost of chancing a pay out is not an asinine idea. GǪand as luck would have it, no-one has claimed that it is. What's asinine is to say that by reducing losses and increasing profits, you've increased the risk. You know, the thing you did by claiming that a guaranteed loss was the same as no risk, before you admitted that it was a rather silly position to hold. Quote:How can you mitigate 100% ship loss? By adding a suitably large risk of loot to the equation.
As luck WOULD indeeeed have it, you did in fact insinuate that.
Quote:Indeed it is asinine, but it is also what you effectively say if you claim that guaranteed ship loss is not a risk.
Cost is not a risk. It's a cost!
Take PI for example.. you know it's going to cost fuel for it work and stay online. Doesn't matter what anyone does to it, or if it brings income or not. That's the RISK. That it will generate money.
What is NOT a risk, is that it will take fuel to run. That's a cost.
Just like losing your ship is a COST Paid to Concord in order to take a chance at getting a wreck and some loot.
The RISK involved in that, would be if you can get back to that wreck quick enough to scoop it before someone else RISKS a suspect flag to loot/scoot and dock up first.
But you still lose your ship no matter what. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Dave Stark
2493
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:28:00 -
[579] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Lord Zim wrote:The only one pretending the ship isn't a part of the risk calculation, is you. It's a cost ffs. You don't "risk" it as it doesn't come back. It's godamn fuel =P
Tippia wrote:Hint: Risk = Probability +ù Cost.
risk = 1 * cost
risk = cost.
cost is risk. Maggie Thatcher. |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13527
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:29:00 -
[580] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:[As luck WOULD indeeeed have it, you did in fact insinuate that. Nope. It was just you failing to read and comprehend entire clauses at once (much less in context).
Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |
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Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:32:00 -
[581] - Quote
Lord Zim wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:It's a cost ffs. You don't "risk" it as it doesn't come back. It's godamn fuel =P If you go and put a coin on a slot machine and pull the arm, what have you done?
You spent a coin. Regardless of outcome, that coin is gone.
"I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:33:00 -
[582] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:[As luck WOULD indeeeed have it, you did in fact insinuate that. Nope. It was just you failing to read and comprehend entire clauses at once (much less in context).
Your quote, your words. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:34:00 -
[583] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Lord Zim wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:It's a cost ffs. You don't "risk" it as it doesn't come back. It's godamn fuel =P If you go and put a coin on a slot machine and pull the arm, what have you done? You spent a coin. Regardless of outcome, that coin is gone. You risk that coin, for the hope that you'll win. The alternative is to not risk that coin. Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:35:00 -
[584] - Quote
Dave Stark wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Lord Zim wrote:The only one pretending the ship isn't a part of the risk calculation, is you. It's a cost ffs. You don't "risk" it as it doesn't come back. It's godamn fuel =P Tippia wrote:Hint: Risk = Probability +ù Cost.
risk = 1 * cost risk = cost. cost is risk.
Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.
"I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13527
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:37:00 -
[585] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Your quote, your words. GǪand at no point do those words contain the insinuation, and you're free to search for a quote that does. I'll have to warn you, though: it'll keep you from posting for a very very long timeGǪ
Quote:Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Nope. Risk implies a probability and a cost. That is all. These days, it doesn't even imply that GÇ£costGÇ¥ is something bad. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:40:00 -
[586] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Your quote, your words. GǪand at no point do those words contain the insinuation, and you're free to search for a quote that does. I'll have to warn you, though: it'll keep you from posting for a very very long timeGǪ
Ai Shun wrote:Okay, that is a better phrasing of it. The probability is 1 though - there is no reduction possible; which to my mind makes it a meaningless part of the equation. The only risk I see is that you may not earn any ISK from the transaction. The ability to reduce it doesn't matter much. It would be exactly as impossible to reduce if it was a hard-coded 50% rather than 100%. What we can do, though, is mitigate it, usually by counterbalancing it with a decent-size risk of a flipping great payout from all the loot we'll be able to scoop (btw, that risk has the exact same GǣissueGǥ: a hard-coded, unalterable probability of 50%GǪ or some such, I'm not sure they've ever actually released the number).
Quote:That would be asinine. I did not read that into anything that Murk wrote; rather - it seems to be a viewpoint somebody is trying to paint him with against what is common sense. Indeed it is asinine, but it is also what you effectively say if you claim that guaranteed ship loss is not a risk.[/quote]
Challenge accepted.
Now, about that threat? "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Dave Stark
2494
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:43:00 -
[587] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.
actual point of the discussion aside.
i love how you use the dictionary definition of a word when it suits, and random implications associated with a word when the actual use of the word goes against you. Maggie Thatcher. |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13527
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:43:00 -
[588] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:[Challenge accepted. Ok. Good luck.
Quote:Now, about that threat? Well, you can't be posting if you're going to go through the entire forum (including archives) for a quote that doesn't exist, now can you?
Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:44:00 -
[589] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Now, about that threat? Which threat? Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:46:00 -
[590] - Quote
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk
Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an undesirable outcome). The notion implies that a choice having an influence on the outcome sometimes exists (or existed). Potential losses themselves may also be called "risks". Any human endeavor carries some risk, but some are much more risky than others.
Risk can be defined in six different ways
1. A probability or threat of damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action.
2.Finance: The probability that an actual return on an investment will be lower than the expected return. Financial risk is divided into the following categories: Basic risk, Capital risk, Country risk, Default risk, Delivery risk, Economic risk, Exchange rate risk, Interest rate risk, Liquidity risk, Operations risk, Payment system risk, Political risk, Refinancing risk, Reinvestment risk, Settlement risk, Sovereign risk, and Underwriting risk.
3. Food industry: The possibility that due to a certain hazard in food there will be an negative effect to a certain magnitude.
4. Insurance: A situation where the probability of a variable (such as burning down of a building) is known but when a mode of occurrence or the actual value of the occurrence (whether the fire will occur at a particular property) is not. A risk is not an uncertainty (where neither the probability nor the mode of occurrence is known), a peril (cause of loss), or a hazard (something that makes the occurrence of a peril more likely or more severe).
5. Securities trading: The probability of a loss or drop in value. Trading risk is divided into two general categories: (1) Systemic risk affects all securities in the same class and is linked to the overall capital-market system and therefore cannot be eliminated by diversification. Also called market risk. (2) Nonsystematic[clarification needed] risk is any risk that isn't market-related or is not systemic. Also called nonmarket risk, extra-market risk, or unsystemic risk.
6. Workplace: Product of the consequence and probability of a hazardous event or phenomenon. For example, the risk of developing cancer is estimated as the incremental probability of developing cancer over a lifetime as a result of exposure to potential carcinogens (cancer-causing substances).
I underlined the parts you seem focused on, and italicized the parts I'm focusing on. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |
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Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13527
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:46:00 -
[591] - Quote
Lord Zim wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Now, about that threat? Which threat? I'm guessing that he's talking about my warning him that he's going to spend an awful amount of time if he wants to find a quote that doesn't exist.
Quote:I underlined the parts you seem focused on Seem Gëá is. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:47:00 -
[592] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Lord Zim wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Now, about that threat? Which threat? I'm guessing that he's talking about my warning him that he's going to spend an awful amount of time if he wants to find a quote that doesn't exist.
Or the one I already posted. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:47:00 -
[593] - Quote
Dave Stark wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.
actual point of the discussion aside. i love how you use the dictionary definition of a word when it suits, and random implications associated with a word when the actual use of the word goes against you.
You mean when it's apparent that I need to use a fact to cite my reasoning? Yes, it's called a debate. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
13527
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:48:00 -
[594] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Or the one I already posted. GǪwhich doesn't contain the implication you're looking for. Vote Malcanis for CSM8. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:50:00 -
[595] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Tippia wrote:Lord Zim wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Now, about that threat? Which threat? I'm guessing that he's talking about my warning him that he's going to spend an awful amount of time if he wants to find a quote that doesn't exist. Or the one I already posted. You must be seeing things.
Also, this just in: gamblers don't take risks. Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Dave Stark
2494
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:50:00 -
[596] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Dave Stark wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.
actual point of the discussion aside. i love how you use the dictionary definition of a word when it suits, and random implications associated with a word when the actual use of the word goes against you. You mean when it's apparent that I need to use a fact to cite my reasoning? Yes, it's called a debate.
no i mean by sidestepping an issue when it's obvious you're wrong.
don't mistake this for me having a go or anything, i think you're an excellent troll. Maggie Thatcher. |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:50:00 -
[597] - Quote
And based on that factual find of "risk" cost of ship loss when known is going to be 100% loss, cannot be defined by risk, but as cost. Expecting any other outcome is foolhardy. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Lord Zim
2349
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:51:00 -
[598] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:And based on that factual find of "risk" cost of ship loss when known is going to be 100% loss, cannot be defined by risk, but as cost. Expecting any other outcome is foolhardy. Gamblers putting money on the table or in the machine, according to your definition, aren't taking risks. Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home. RIP Vile Rat |

Murk Paradox
Red Tsunami
300
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:51:00 -
[599] - Quote
Dave Stark wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Dave Stark wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.
actual point of the discussion aside. i love how you use the dictionary definition of a word when it suits, and random implications associated with a word when the actual use of the word goes against you. You mean when it's apparent that I need to use a fact to cite my reasoning? Yes, it's called a debate. no i mean by sidestepping an issue when it's obvious you're wrong. don't mistake this for me having a go or anything, i think you're an excellent troll.
Finally someone noticed I only post when I'm at work =P
Doesn't make me wrong however. "I say tomato, you say tomaCCP BAN ALL TOMATOES THEY ARE HARASSING ME I WANT TOMATO FREE HIGHSEC."-á -TheGunslinger42 Proud enforcer of the Code, see [url]http://www.minerbumping.com[/url]-á for details. |

Dave Stark
2495
|
Posted - 2013.04.08 21:53:00 -
[600] - Quote
Murk Paradox wrote:Dave Stark wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Dave Stark wrote:Murk Paradox wrote:Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.
actual point of the discussion aside. i love how you use the dictionary definition of a word when it suits, and random implications associated with a word when the actual use of the word goes against you. You mean when it's apparent that I need to use a fact to cite my reasoning? Yes, it's called a debate. no i mean by sidestepping an issue when it's obvious you're wrong. don't mistake this for me having a go or anything, i think you're an excellent troll. Finally someone noticed I only post when I'm at work =P Doesn't make me wrong however.
oh i noticed a while ago, the multiboxing/eula thread. hours of fun arguing with you. enjoyable, thoroughly. Maggie Thatcher. |
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