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William Alex
Viscosity
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Posted - 2007.09.12 18:40:00 -
[331]
Edited by: William Alex on 12/09/2007 18:40:51
 Originally by: William Alex
Would it be safe to say that's with 4-4-4 skills and no other modifiers?
Sorry Chruker I just read more of your results and it seems that you're getting a 40% success rate with 1-1-1.
I must say i'm a bit surprised at such a high success rate... it seems that skills don't really affect the outcome that much.
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Salvis Tallan
Gallente
The Shadow Order
SMASH Alliance
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Posted - 2007.09.12 20:30:00 -
[332]
I use... 0.5% per skill level for the data core skills and 1% per level for interface skill. The numbers I get actually match what you would expect when you look at all these numbers.
For example:
250mm Railgun II Blueprint
4 in all skills, with no meta item or decrypter
43.28% chance of success
Ishtar Blueprint
4 in all skills, no decrypter
21.64% chance
I looked at higher numbers for the percentages, but it would look good for, say a module, but then was not quite right for ships (based on information here and what we actually know to be true)
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Vladimir Tinakin
Caldari
Hadean Drive Yards
Archaean Cooperative
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Posted - 2007.09.13 14:20:00 -
[333]
Edited by: Vladimir Tinakin on 13/09/2007 14:21:11
As an update, CCP Chron has confirmed that all skills count towards invention success chance, and that the process does not suffer from a "Tactical Shield Manipulation"-like bug...and that we've been the proud beta-testing/trial users of the invention-as-market-supply system.
With T2 Battleships being in high demand once they arrive (one can only imagine) and ONLY available via (expensive!) invention, either a) it'll cost us 200M per ship to invent, or b) datacore availability as a whole will increase. Given the success reports on HACs, I can only imagine the failure strings on T2 Battleship invention...so the "best" option would probably be to not attempt unless you have max-skills.
Either that, or to be prepared to **** away a whole lotta datacores; IIRC, before they took the tab away battleships required 18 cores in each category.
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Adm Vladimir Tinakin
CFO
Hadean Drive Yards |
William Alex
Viscosity
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Posted - 2007.09.14 20:43:00 -
[334]
Look at it this way. If you happen to have the cashflow to invest in t2 battleship invention then it will be profitable.
What is the cashflow required? I'd probably recommend about 10bil, anyone who wants to disprove me go ahead, there's only room for one baseless claim in this comment!
I think anyone who invents for profit will understand what I mean.
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William Alex
Viscosity
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Posted - 2007.09.14 20:45:00 -
[335]
If it truely is 18 cores however, then I suppose the per run bpc cost will be roughly 55mil at the current market price.
I'm going to suppose build costs to be about 300mil but it could be higher. I don't see t2 battleships settling at below the 350mil marker but that's 100% speculation.
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Vladimir Tinakin
Caldari
Hadean Drive Yards
Archaean Cooperative
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Posted - 2007.09.17 14:31:00 -
[336]
Edited by: Vladimir Tinakin on 17/09/2007 14:32:15
Edited by: Vladimir Tinakin on 17/09/2007 14:31:36
Originally by: William Alex
If it truely is 18 cores however, then I suppose the per run bpc cost will be roughly 55mil at the current market price.
I'm going to suppose build costs to be about 300mil but it could be higher. I don't see t2 battleships settling at below the 350mil marker but that's 100% speculation.
Of course its all spec. However, the decryptor, the 36 cores (plus the bpc, but we'll discount that cost) at about 1M per core average, with 6-8 attempts per success on average (HAC/Command Cruiser level of success) is where I poofed up that 200M figure. The scary bit is that it could be on the low side, esp if you're "unlucky."
The post wasn't intended to "scare off" competition as much as it was to warn the more "Casual" inventors looking to maximize their chances. Avid Inventors know the risks and associated costs already--you guys don't need the heads up. 
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Adm Vladimir Tinakin
CFO
Hadean Drive Yards |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.09.17 15:42:00 -
[337]
Actually, if you look at the progression, you'd expect a 32-of-each-core need.
Depending on what kind of T1 BPC and/or decryptor you plan on using, you could get an invention cost of anywhere between 50 and 150 mil per run (getting at best, on average, with maxed-out skills around 1 run per job with best chance decryptor... plus minus 0.2 runs per job on average).
As for manufacture costs, somewhere between 250 and 350 mil per ship (T1 ship, assumed tier2, plus components).
So final price, around 400-500 mil per built ship from scratch.
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[CNVTF] is recruiting | Char creation guide | Stack-nerfing explained |
Titus Quintus
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Posted - 2007.09.17 15:43:00 -
[338]
Originally by: William Alex
Edited by: William Alex on 12/09/2007 18:40:51
Sorry Chruker I just read more of your results and it seems that you're getting a 40% success rate with 1-1-1.
40% with 1-1-1 and modules is absolutely in line with my own experimenting.
20% with 1-1-1 and ships is in line, too.
The base chance, as it stands in the database, of 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 for the different invention classes is as bullet proof as we can probably get it. The effect of meta-levels though, now that is a completely different issue...
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Mrs Amadeus
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Posted - 2007.09.18 19:46:00 -
[339]
Skill level (Encyption/DC1/DC2): 5/4/4
Interface (Ship/Tuner/Data): ship
Number of datacores from one group: 8
Decryptor (0.4x/0.8x/1.0x/1.1x/1.3x): 0.4x
Item meta level (0/1/2/3/4): none used
Attempts: 17
Successes: 0
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Benvie
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Posted - 2007.09.22 23:24:00 -
[340]
Skill level (Encyption/DC1/DC2): 3/3/2
Interface (Ship/Tuner/Data): data
Number of datacores from one group: 2
Decryptor (0.4x/0.8x/1.0x/1.1x/1.3x): none used
Item meta level (0/1/2/3/4): 3
Attempts: 100
Successes: 48
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SelanirO
Phoibe Enterprises
The Fifth Race
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Posted - 2007.09.23 15:55:00 -
[341]
Skill level (Encyption/DC1/DC2): 4/4/4
Interface (Ship/Tuner/Data): ship
Number of datacores from one group: 8
Decryptor (0.4x/0.8x/1.0x/1.1x/1.3x): 1.3x
Item meta level (0/1/2/3/4): -
Attempts: 12
Successes: 3
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Thomasina
Caldari
Grumman Shipyards
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Posted - 2007.09.23 21:16:00 -
[342]
In the early days of BS invention, I suspect there will be money to be made from selling max run BPCs. In fact I think I might get an alt to start churning out copies now - I have a couple of empty copy slots. 
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Vladimir Tinakin
Caldari
Hadean Drive Yards
Archaean Cooperative
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Posted - 2007.09.24 02:29:00 -
[343]
Best market will be for the +9 run decryptors, I think. The max-run bpcs will just grant +1 to the invention results...potentially not worth it to spend the extra 10-15M on a max run, especially if you're likely to burn through a half dozen+ to get one success.
A series of 1-runs coupled with a +9 should be more profitable in the long run.
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Adm Vladimir Tinakin
CFO
Hadean Drive Yards |
Qual
Gallente
Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.09.24 10:11:00 -
[344]
Originally by: Vladimir Tinakin
Best market will be for the +9 run decryptors, I think. The max-run bpcs will just grant +1 to the invention results...potentially not worth it to spend the extra 10-15M on a max run, especially if you're likely to burn through a half dozen+ to get one success.
A series of 1-runs coupled with a +9 should be more profitable in the long run.
The T2 Battleships market will probably be like T2 BC market was when that hit: That is pretty low demad in the beginning due to people still having to get the skills in place.
If you bet your fortune on T2 battleships beeing the next Hulk like item, you are aiming for you foot.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |
Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.09.24 11:23:00 -
[345]
Edited by: Kazuo Ishiguro on 24/09/2007 11:24:50
I'm not sure whether it'll be quite as slow as that; Racial Battleship V is the likely requirement, but thousands of people have already got it trained so that they can use capital ships. BC V is more of a dead end. Also, those people are likely to be quite wealthy 
EDIT: granted, if things like Recon Ships V or Covert Ops V are also needed, there'll be more of a delay...
I've asked Sara Dawn (of http://ineve.net) whether it would be possible to show how many pilots have BS V, including those who don't have carrier/dreadnought skills, but I haven't received a positive response yet.
My research services
Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats |
Qual
Gallente
Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.09.24 12:46:00 -
[346]
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro
Edited by: Kazuo Ishiguro on 24/09/2007 11:24:50
I'm not sure whether it'll be quite as slow as that; Racial Battleship V is the likely requirement, but thousands of people have already got it trained so that they can use capital ships. BC V is more of a dead end. Also, those people are likely to be quite wealthy
EDIT: granted, if things like Recon Ships V or Covert Ops V are also needed, there'll be more of a delay...
I've asked Sara Dawn (of http://ineve.net) whether it would be possible to show how many pilots have BS V, including those who don't have carrier/dreadnought skills, but I haven't received a positive response yet.
Well the black ops ship will most likely require more skills than just to actual ship skills to be used (Black Ops Jump gate module etc.)
On top of that I expect them to have at least two if not three lvl 5 requirements to fly. (After all the faction ships require 2 x 8 lvl 5 ranks to fly. Cant see the T2 ships takeing less.)
But history have proven that new ship types based on skill not allready needed have a slow start. (Interceptors where nearly unsellable for 6 months. HAC's also took a long time to really take off. Others like logistics and Cover ops ships just had other thing turning them into slow movers from the start.)
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |
Vladimir Tinakin
Caldari
Hadean Drive Yards
Archaean Cooperative
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Posted - 2007.09.24 14:32:00 -
[347]
Outside of the "trophy" market, yeah, I can see a 2-3 month "ramping up" of sales. Without knowing the reqs, this really is pure spec.
The point about racial BS 5 is a good one though--with Eve becoming Capitals Online that skill is not as rare as it once was. All other T2 ships require a "neutral" skill that itself is a prereq for the next big ship size...
So the cv ops ship will likely require Recon at 4-5 as a prereq for itself. Not sure if the "baby jump generator" will be a prereq for the ship itself, however--most ships that use specialized equipment have far more modest requirements to sit in them, and you just train the skills to use the toys afterwards. (see: siege module, industrial core, fighters)
Also, since they'll be purely invention-created, you don't have people sitting on BPOs churning them out hoping for a market to materialize while hitting the saturation point early. These things will be hard to get for a long time.
Its all wait-n-see at this point, but if the ships were to be profitable, it would be in the mass production. People will buy them...its just a question of how fast they'll move.
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Adm Vladimir Tinakin
CFO
Hadean Drive Yards |
Benvie
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Posted - 2007.09.25 05:16:00 -
[348]
Skill level (Encyption/DC1/DC2): 3/3/2
Interface (Ship/Tuner/Data): data
Number of datacores from one group: 2
Decryptor (0.4x/0.8x/1.0x/1.1x/1.3x): none used
Item meta level (0/1/2/3/4): 0
Attempts: 160
Successes: 72
My success rate for this batch and last batch is much higher than expected. With a meta level 3 my expected success was a little over 40%, actual out of 100 was 48%. Expected success rate with no meta item was a little under 34%, actual success rate over 160 trials was 45%. Maybe I'm just lucky? 
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Jeemor
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Posted - 2007.09.28 05:00:00 -
[349]
Has anyone noticed a greater failure rate recently?
150 Inventions - all with Stolen Formulas
Skils at 5/5/5
I'm getting an average of 3% success. Down from 43% success last month when my skills were 4/4/5.
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Trak Cranker
Serenity Inc
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Posted - 2007.09.28 09:13:00 -
[350]
Originally by: Benvie
Maybe I'm just lucky?
Think you have been. An not even exceedingly so. I would expect you to land around 43-45% on those numbers.
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Trak Cranker
Serenity Inc
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Posted - 2007.09.28 09:14:00 -
[351]
Originally by: Jeemor
Has anyone noticed a greater failure rate recently?
150 Inventions - all with Stolen Formulas
Skils at 5/5/5
I'm getting an average of 3% success. Down from 43% success last month when my skills were 4/4/5.
Inventing what?
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Aykido
Gallente
Lobster of Babel
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Posted - 2007.09.28 15:20:00 -
[352]
Ok How come ammo invention only yields 1 run.
I used a 1500 run Iridum M (thought the decryptors were too expensive to warrant their use).
Got only one success from 3 jobs, but I guess it was slightly more likely that I'd get 2 success from only 3 jobs.
Result was a single run Javelin M! 
I was certain ammo would follow mods and result would be 10 runs.
I guess that concludes my attempts at ammo invention ....
Selling PERFECT PRINTS of every seeded T1 BPO: modules, rigs, drones, ammo and ships (4 ships missing), and most capital modules too! Selling any INVENTED T2 BPC by order! Can build also! |
minmof
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Posted - 2007.10.02 23:17:00 -
[353]
for what i've seen, and i kinda have seen a lot of invented items, i came to conclusions that i could even bet on them, but i might be as wrong as a mindless person trying to think.
so far i have my skills level for everything i invent at 4, planning to bring them to 5 because of some reasons i'll point.
1)a .1% or an addition of a metalevel 1 item changes the course of invention by a lot. (the % is there just to point that a single .1% changes the course of the invention.)
1.1)I've gone thru 0/40 in ships invention with the best runs decryptor (symbiotic figures), this one also gives the worst succeed chance, or i've done better with test reports, but never got more than 2 succeeds at 1 time imput, this leads me to belive in #2
2)I belive that the % taken in account could be over 100 invention jobs made, why? well.
2.1) i've had days where i have invented 60-90% of 7 jobs being made, (these jobs are usually the ones that you can make in 1+ hours) in the same day with different hours, i've gone thru 0/7, and then 1/7, 2/7 0/7 etch, but they are never the same, i haven't write all my results for the days, but this is what leads me to think that % of an invention job is counted over 100 attempts.all of these jobs have been done with the same formula, same BPC, same decryptors or no decryptors, or same metalevel item or none at all.
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Ol' Delsai
Caldari
Aeden
Tau Ceti Federation
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Posted - 2007.10.03 20:44:00 -
[354]
Skill level (Encyption/DC1/DC2): 3/3/3
Interface (Ship/Tuner/Data): ship
Number of datacores from one group: 8
Decryptor (0.4x/0.8x/1.0x/1.1x/1.3x): 0.4x
Item meta level (0/1/2/3/4): -
Attempts: 20
Successes: 6 (5 in a row)
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Twobits PieCake
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Posted - 2007.10.03 21:44:00 -
[355]
Originally by: Ol' Delsai
Skill level (Encyption/DC1/DC2): 3/3/3
Interface (Ship/Tuner/Data): ship
Number of datacores from one group: 8
Decryptor (0.4x/0.8x/1.0x/1.1x/1.3x): 0.4x
Item meta level (0/1/2/3/4): -
Attempts: 20
Successes: 6 (5 in a row)
Nice average, dude
equivalent of 75% success rate w/o the decryptor modifier.
This data crushed my inventional backbone tbh
bastages....
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.10.03 21:48:00 -
[356]
Originally by: Trak Cranker
Originally by: Jeemor
Has anyone noticed a greater failure rate recently?
150 Inventions - all with Stolen Formulas
Skils at 5/5/5
I'm getting an average of 3% success. Down from 43% success last month when my skills were 4/4/5.
Inventing what?
I would bet Hulks.
_
Caldari N.V.T.F. is recruiting... |
LaughAdactyl
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Posted - 2007.10.04 01:27:00 -
[357]
Edited by: LaughAdactyl on 04/10/2007 01:28:51
Edited by: LaughAdactyl on 04/10/2007 01:27:17
Originally by: Jeemor
Has anyone noticed a greater failure rate recently?
150 Inventions - all with Stolen Formulas
Skils at 5/5/5
I'm getting an average of 3% success. Down from 43% success last month when my skills were 4/4/5.
yeah my success rates have been crappy lately, i have 5 for all my skills, i last ran 10 celestis BPCs (runs 15, ME 30, PI 10) with test reports at a POS (which is sposed to get me a bonus to chances of success) and with a celestis base item of all of them i got a 2 run arazu BPC, most of my inventions have been failing lately
edit: also did a 5 celestis BPC invent job (same stats as above) and used the .4 multiplier decryptor, and all 5 jobs failed |
Qual
Gallente
Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.10.04 06:06:00 -
[358]
Oh noes! Another lvl 5 sucks conspiracy theroy.
Tinfoilhattery.
When invention started I had 5 in all skills. I have been doing very well for myself doing invention, with avarage slightly above whats been reported in different threads like this one. As one would expect! (Yes, my sample is indeed large enough to be statistical significant! And then some..)
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |
J3ST3R
Gallente
Dark Light Inc
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Posted - 2007.10.05 21:36:00 -
[359]
Success rates with ships are always going to be low,
As for invention success rates I would say I'm around 75-85% for modules and I'm generally doing stuff I have the skills very high in.
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Dwai Attic
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Posted - 2007.10.06 14:17:00 -
[360]
Originally by: J3ST3R
Success rates with ships are always going to be low,
As for invention success rates I would say I'm around 75-85% for modules and I'm generally doing stuff I have the skills very high in.
Meta item? Decryptor?
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