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ShadowRat	Posted - 2007.03.28 07:45:00 - [61] Edited by: ShadowRat on 28/03/2007 08:25:03 Ok - lets see some points: Quote: The formula for runs was already correctly* posted in this thread and looks nothing like the above. Try getting MaxRunsInputBP, MaxRunsOutputBP(no, the two are nearly never the same) and ActualRunsInputBPC in there. If correctly ... MaxRunsInputBP: that is nice, but what is MaxRUn for BPO? Yes bpc makes for max time in lab... but where? In station lab or pos? If you use 'standard station lab' BPC in your formula you got 100% but when you use from pos 133%. You must put another formula for pos bpc and some new modifiers :P, but why pos bpc must be trethed in onther way?This is little silly and too complicated in checking and implementing. bpc_output: round_down(base_runs/30)+decryptor_mod + little_lottery(after 1.4 patch) Is simply linear and continous function (without lottery). Easy to implement and there by only mistake in number '30' that is 'constans' number for all BPC (if?). Our job is found of what this number is. 30? 40? 80? But when you look at ppl's number they got more/less from 1run bpc 4 (1/30+4).... from 100run bpc 7 (100/30 +4).. from 300run 14 (300/30 +4)... You see? 30 is almost there... Good side: - no difference in ship/mod/rig/weapon.. etc BPC... Yes. Why there must be diference? When eve engine prevent you to make ship BPC more in run then modules... Simply less run input less you get. -simple Now 'little lotery' - that can be happen when you got next roll in luck and put you extra runs. The me and pe. If you can make any number (in theory) in me and pe constans modifier here can be huge... 30 is only example. Quote: Furthermore, most important comment, the whole formula has a max(1;formula) around it (that was missing from the formula post). There are no jobs failing cause of 0 runs. When you got 0 run BPC ... yes you faill. No you win :) but you got nothing... so you fail anyway. And you count this as 'bad luck' in succes_rate... but this is a different story. Quote:* About chance, i have a good guess about the formula and its wildly different from yours ;). I do need more statistics for any real hint of validity though. At the end anyone use own formula. More or less acurate. ----------------- Have nice day.
Qual Gallente Cornexant Research	Posted - 2007.03.28 11:04:00 - [62] Edited by: Qual on 28/03/2007 11:00:07 Originally by: ShadowRat ... Huh? The formula for number of resulting runs goes like this in its full glory: Runs = max(1;Round.Down(ActualRunsInputBPC/MaxRunsInputBPC*MaxRunsOutputBPC + DecryptorBonusRuns)) MaxRunsOutputBPC is 1 for Ships and Rigs and 10 for modules. Rest should explain itself. (NOTE I: MaxRunInputBPC is fixed for each blueprint type, and is the same no matter where you copy (station, outpost or POS). And we dont have to consider BPO's as you cant use BPO's for invention.) (NOTE II: There is no RANDOM or LOTTERY part in this formula. You get the smae results all the time.) As for ME and PE the formula is very simple: MEOutputBPC = -4 + DecryptorBonusME PEOutputBPC = -4 + DecryptorBonusPE (NOTE I: MEInputBPC and PEInputBPC does not enter into the formula, and thus have no effect on the result. -4 is a constant used instead by EVE.) "The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf
Aykido Gallente Lobster of Babel	Posted - 2007.03.28 11:27:00 - [63] Edited by: Aykido on 28/03/2007 11:37:04 Edited by: Aykido on 28/03/2007 11:24:46 Here is some data: Invention data (51 attempts) All jobs with relevant skills at level 4. All T1 BPCs used (me100/pe100/max runs: either 100 or 300 or 1000) 9 attempts: -Meta item level 3 -Decryptor (1,1 prob/-2me/+5pe/+2runs) = 4 failures & 5 successes (all resulting in 11runs/me-6/pe1 BPCs) >>> success rate 55,55% 14 attempts: -Meta iem level 4 -Decryptor (1,1 prob/-2me/+5pe/+2runs) = 3 failure and 11 successes (all resulting in 11runs/me-6/pe1 BPCs) >>> success rate 78,57% 3 attempts: -Meta item level 0 -Decryptor (1,3 prob/-3me/+2pe/+4runs) = 2 failures and 1 success (resulting in 14runs/me-7/pe-2 BPC) >>> success rate 33% 13 attempts: -Meta item level 2 -Decryptor (1,3 prob/-3me/+2pe/+4runs) = 5 failures and 8 successes (all resulting in 14runs/me-7/pe-2 BPC) >>> success rate 61,54% 6 attempts: -Meta item level 3 -Decryptor (1,3 prob/-3me/+2pe/+4runs) = 3 failures and 3 successes (all resulting in 14runs/me-7/pe-2 BPC) >>> success rate 50% 6 attempts: -Meta item level 4 -Decryptor (1,3 prob/-3me/+2pe/+4runs) = 6 successes (all resulting in 14runs/me-7/pe-2 BPC) >>> success rate 100% seems to correspond to the previous posters findings. except that I get 11 (not 12) runs when using a decryptor that should give 10+2 runs with a max run input BPC. Selling PERFECT PRINTS of 672 of the 728 seeded T1 BPOs: Ships, modules, rigs, drones, ammo, probes, components and capital mods, drones & ammo.
Meau	Posted - 2007.03.28 12:51:00 - [64] Edited by: Meau on 28/03/2007 12:55:20 @Aykido now thats some nice data :) starts number crunching Concerning runs, i nearly fully agree with qual. I just include a 1/10 factor and use actual maxrun numbers of the BPC type(f.e. 10 for T2 cruisers, not 1). Runs = max(1;Round.Down( (ActualRunsInputBPC/MaxRunsInputBPC) * (MaxRunsOutputBPC/10) + DecryptorBonusRuns)) To make it absolutely clear, lets consider Cruiser invention. Max runs of a T1 BPC is 15, of the T2 BPC 10. This is the max number of runs allowed if you copy from a BPO. Ergo: Outputruns = Max(1; Decryptorbonus + 0.1 * Inputsruns * 10/15) Leaving the decryptor part and the max aside the formula is thus Outputruns = Inputruns * 0,066666666... Inventing Modules there are for example modules with T1 Max runs on a BPC allowed of 450, T2 150. The simplest form is then Outputruns = Inputruns/30, yes. But thats not true for all modules(as far as i know) and also not for ships and rigs(and probably ammo and drones as soon as they enter invention). Thus the formula posted twice by qual is the only correct one(though i would the 1/10, as already mentioned ;P ), any simplification can only be done with a known fixed input and output item. Trying to express it in another way would be: You look how much percentage of max allowed runs does your input bpc have. A Maxrun has 100% of allowed max runs, easy. You then divide this by 10 => 10%. This is the percentage of max allowed runs on the output bpc that you get. F.e. if that number is 150, you get 10% * 150 = 15 runs + decryptor.
Hermes Massai Gallente Coreli Corporation Corelum Syndicate	Posted - 2007.03.28 14:27:00 - [65] Is it possible that the number of datacores needed is a factor in establishing the base success chance? Up to now, I seem to have better luck with items that require 1x2 datacores than with 2x2 items. Just a thought.
Khajit Smitty Minmatar MisFunk Inc.	Posted - 2007.03.28 15:01:00 - [66] hows does the max() function work in the above formulae? if max(a;b) then does it take the bigger of the two numbers?
Qual Gallente Cornexant Research	Posted - 2007.03.28 15:42:00 - [67] Originally by: Khajit Smitty hows does the max() function work in the above formulae? if max(a;b) then does it take the bigger of the two numbers? Correct. It enusres that a succes allways gives at least one run, which seems to be the case. "The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf
Qual Gallente Cornexant Research	Posted - 2007.03.28 16:08:00 - [68] Originally by: Meau Concerning runs, i nearly fully agree with qual. I just include a 1/10 factor and use actual maxrun numbers of the BPC type(f.e. 10 for T2 cruisers, not 1). Runs = max(1;Round.Down( (ActualRunsInputBPC/MaxRunsInputBPC) * (MaxRunsOutputBPC/10) + DecryptorBonusRuns)) Well... Does not really work with rigs and modules. Rigs bpc's can have 1000 runs. Modules usually around 300. That would result in much larger resulting runs using your formula. "The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf
CosmoTrader	Posted - 2007.03.28 19:07:00 - [69] How can I define meta item level?
Meau	Posted - 2007.03.28 21:07:00 - [70] Edited by: Meau on 28/03/2007 21:16:52 Originally by: Qual Originally by: Meau Concerning runs, i nearly fully agree with qual. I just include a 1/10 factor and use actual maxrun numbers of the BPC type(f.e. 10 for T2 cruisers, not 1). Runs = max(1;Round.Down( (ActualRunsInputBPC/MaxRunsInputBPC) * (MaxRunsOutputBPC/10) + DecryptorBonusRuns)) Well... Does not really work with rigs and modules. Rigs bpc's can have 1000 runs. Modules usually around 300. That would result in much larger resulting runs using your formula. For rigs, i think MaxRunsInputBPC = 1000, MaxRunsOutputBPC = 10. Thus the thing ends as: max(1; trunc(ActualRunsInputBpc/1000)(10/10) + Decryptorbonus)) = max(1; trunc(ActualRunsInputBpc/1000 + Decryptorbonus)) Ergo: You get one output run (+decryptor) for a maxrun input copy, same as with ships. You¦re with me? The basic truth to internalize is that Maxruns for T1 and corresponding T2 blueprints can and is wildly different in most cases(except for ships, where the are roughyl the same, i.e. 15 and 10). This introduces a factor between 2/3 and 1/100 into the formula. My alternative way to think about the formula, percentage of actual in respect to maximal possible input runs on the input bpc leading to output runs equaling 1/10 of that percentage of max possible output runs may also suit you better for grabbing the idea. * I calculated the ratio MaxRunsInputBPC/MaxRunsOutputBPC from low friction nozzle BPO/BPC info as 100/1. "Copy time"(meaning maxrun copies) divided by "Copy time(you per single copy)". As i was too lazy correcting exactly for skills, i have no absolute numbers, but if a T1 rig BPC has 1000 runs max(from my quick check could also be 1250 or something around that number), the T2 has 10. And yes, i double checked this calculation with different T2 BPOs which i own(no rigs, but ships, ammo, drones and modules), by starting a copy dialog and testing the allowed maxuns.
Meau	Posted - 2007.03.28 22:00:00 - [71] Edited by: Meau on 28/03/2007 21:59:04 Originally by: CosmoTrader How can I define meta item level? Metalevel can be found in the data dump for modules, and ranges from 0 to 4 for t1 modules(1 to 4 are the named versions of the item, better item, higher level). There is a web version of the data dump somewhere, but cant remember the adress right now, maybe someone else? :) Ships dont seem to have a meta-level(not even fleet issue ones), but im still putting T1 ships into my jobs, you never know ;P.
Kylar Renpurs	Posted - 2007.03.29 00:44:00 - [72] Just something which i'm not sure if people have investigated, but the more you invent something, the less likely it seems you'll have success it seems. Case example, i did three successful inventions in a row of an item. All had less and less favourable messages as output. I then successfully predicted the fourth attempt would fail. I waited a day, then sent off another attempt, the 5th was successful, but had the same success message as my 3rd attempt, which was the least favourable of the initial success attempts
Qual Gallente Cornexant Research	Posted - 2007.03.29 05:58:00 - [73] Originally by: Kylar Renpurs Just something which i'm not sure if people have investigated, but the more you invent something, the less likely it seems you'll have success it seems. Case example, i did three successful inventions in a row of an item. All had less and less favourable messages as output. I then successfully predicted the fourth attempt would fail. I waited a day, then sent off another attempt, the 5th was successful, but had the same success message as my 3rd attempt, which was the least favourable of the initial success attempts Considering my current information from TQ (sample base 50+) this is not true. The chance of invention is static, given the same input. "The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf
darkst0rm Caldari Insidious Existence Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate	Posted - 2007.03.29 06:25:00 - [74] Edited by: darkst0rm on 29/03/2007 06:21:48 I've had a look at the database export and from what I can tell all the warp disruptor's have a meta-level of 1. I'm not sure if this is outdated database but it sure makes inventing warp distruptor II alot harder. I thought faint should have meta-level 4, and fleeting should have meta-level 3. etc. Is there an easier or in-game method to check an item's meta-level.
Vladimir Tinakin Caldari Hadean Drive Yards Archaean Cooperative	Posted - 2007.03.29 06:57:00 - [75] Latest 4/3/3, no decryptor, with covetor, on SiSi tests: 8 fail, 1 success. It doesn't look like the covetor is adding much if anything to the job...which if the meta level is low (as would be indicated by data dumps) would be expected. Putting in more tests now. ----------------------------------------------- Adm Vladimir Tinakin CFO Hadean Drive Yards
Meau	Posted - 2007.03.29 08:50:00 - [76] Edited by: Meau on 29/03/2007 08:48:12 Originally by: darkst0rm Edited by: darkst0rm on 29/03/2007 06:21:48 I've had a look at the database export and from what I can tell all the warp disruptor's have a meta-level of 1. I'm not sure if this is outdated database but it sure makes inventing warp distruptor II alot harder. I thought faint should have meta-level 4, and fleeting should have meta-level 3. etc. Is there an easier or in-game method to check an item's meta-level. The same problem exists for i.e. 1mn MWDs, the highest metalevel available is 2. From the data i have this indeed gimps the invention success changes, which are below 50% with a 1.3er decryptor and good skills. This is in agreement(if any statement can be made with the available statistics) with the above posted chance for metalevel 2, but of course highly annoying.
Meau	Posted - 2007.03.29 09:04:00 - [77] Originally by: Vladimir Tinakin Latest 4/3/3, no decryptor, with covetor, on SiSi tests: 8 fail, 1 success. It doesn't look like the covetor is adding much if anything to the job...which if the meta level is low (as would be indicated by data dumps) would be expected. Putting in more tests now. I guess the meta-level, if existant for ships, is zero, so the effect of including a covetor should probably be not existant. As my input ships are cheaper(im not into hulks) im still superstitious enough to use T1 ships as base items, though. And btw, thanks for all the data :)
Nihila Caldari Lithuanians	Posted - 2007.03.29 11:15:00 - [78] Hello. Have good time studiinng this :). May someome correct me, is the max(1; trunc(ActualRunsInputBpc/1000 + Decryptorbonus)) <> 1+Decryptorbonus ? Regards.
Dominique Vasilkovsky Techmart Industries	Posted - 2007.03.29 11:37:00 - [79] Originally by: Meau Problems arise where less than 4 named versions exist. Tell me about it, Cloaking Device I has meta level 0. Which combined with one of the longest copy times for a max run BPC (just under 11 days in POS) makes it a pain to invent. Just to add some more fun on top it has the same invention time as a ship, 16h in POS compared to 1h45min for a reglar module. Who knows, maybe a dev will read my bug report and put it in line with the other modules out there. We're sorry, something happened.
Ricdic Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd	Posted - 2007.03.29 12:12:00 - [80] Yeh cloak has always seemed to be an exception to the T1 rule. Hell, we never even got the T1 bpo's seeded. Insured Research and Production Services
City Chick	Posted - 2007.03.29 12:14:00 - [81] Dont faction cloakes have a higer level ?
ShadowRat	Posted - 2007.03.29 12:38:00 - [82] Acording to inputs by ppl here succes rate formula can looks like this: succes_rate= (1+encryption.lev/10)(1+related_science1.lev/10)(1+related_science2.lev/10)(1+(meta_item.lev5+5)/10)modyfier_decryptor There is low skill weight.. so you put 1.01,1.02, ...1.05 at max lev for 3 skils... If item is put into invention you got 1.05,1.10,...1.25 modyfier at last from meta level of item. If there is no item this part is eqal to 1. Modyfier_decryptor is like we know, in example 1.3 for best descryptor. So best chance is: 1.051.051.051.251.3=> 88% if no item and decryptor 1.051.05*1.05=> 15%-16% Some ppl imputs in this thread: In order: encryptionscience Iscience IImeta_levdecryptorSUCCESmetaleverror_rangePPL_SUCCES_REPORTED 1.041.041.041.251.382.790447.178.50% 1.041.041.041.151.368.16716827.7061% 1.041.041.041.21.375.478784316.650% 1.041.041.041.251.382.7904416.6100% 1.041.041.041.051.353.543936033.333% 1.041.041.041.21.148.482048311.155.55% 1.011.011.011103.0301noitem9.142% 1.031.031.031.21.370.4654123472% 1.041.041.041.251.382.7904411.177% 1.041.041.041.251.382.790441080% As you see imputs are in range of this function +/- error range I wonder why dev put here 0.4 decryptor... This sugest another few more paramets that help to get succes rate. So.. use best items (if exist) and best decryptor.. :P ------------- Have Nice Day P.S. No point in max function :P If you got 0 BPC you fail :P
Khajit Smitty Minmatar MisFunk Inc.	Posted - 2007.03.29 14:48:00 - [83] Originally by: ShadowRat Acording to inputs by ppl here succes rate formula can looks like this: succes_rate= (1+encryption.lev/10)(1+related_science1.lev/10)(1+related_science2.lev/10)(1+(meta_item.lev5+5)/10)modyfier_decryptor There is low skill weight.. so you put 1.01,1.02, ...1.05 at max lev for 3 skils... If item is put into invention you got 1.05,1.10,...1.25 modyfier at last from meta level of item. If there is no item this part is eqal to 1. Modyfier_decryptor is like we know, in example 1.3 for best descryptor. So best chance is: 1.051.051.051.251.3=> 88% if no item and decryptor 1.051.05*1.05=> 15%-16% Some ppl imputs in this thread: In order: encryptionscience Iscience IImeta_levdecryptorSUCCESmetaleverror_rangePPL_SUCCES_REPORTED 1.041.041.041.251.382.790447.178.50% 1.041.041.041.151.368.16716827.7061% 1.041.041.041.21.375.478784316.650% 1.041.041.041.251.382.7904416.6100% 1.041.041.041.051.353.543936033.333% 1.041.041.041.21.148.482048311.155.55% 1.011.011.011103.0301noitem9.142% 1.031.031.031.21.370.4654123472% 1.041.041.041.251.382.7904411.177% 1.041.041.041.251.382.790441080% As you see imputs are in range of this function +/- error range I wonder why dev put here 0.4 decryptor... This sugest another few more paramets that help to get succes rate. So.. use best items (if exist) and best decryptor.. :P ------------- Have Nice Day P.S. No point in max function :P If you got 0 BPC you fail :P use bodmas, oh and dev's have stated that it is harder to invent ships compared to modules so there must be some variable somewhere that factors this in - and i dont think it relates to the meta level of the item.
Bambi	Posted - 2007.03.29 15:12:00 - [84] Going back a long time I read somewhere that the base chance for success on modules was in the region of 40% and it was 20% for ships. Sorry if this throws excement into the circular ventilation system
Meau	Posted - 2007.03.29 16:32:00 - [85] Edited by: Meau on 29/03/2007 16:32:44 Originally by: ShadowRat P.S. No point in max function :P If you got 0 BPC you fail :P If you use a 1 run ship bpc without any decryptor you get 1 output run. If you use a maxrun ship bpc without any decryptor you get 1 output run(with the same success chance as above). If you use a 1 run bpc and a +1 run decryptor you get 1 output run(Yes, same number of runs as above). If you use a 1 run bpc and a +4 run decryptor you get 4 output runs. And so on... Care to explain? Anyway, this is my last try, i dont care if you still dont get it, your problem :)
Meau	Posted - 2007.03.29 16:51:00 - [86] Edited by: Meau on 29/03/2007 16:54:28 Originally by: Bambi Going back a long time I read somewhere that the base chance for success on modules was in the region of 40% and it was 20% for ships. Sorry if this throws excement into the circular ventilation system If i plug all my data into my best formula candidate i get something like basechance 35% for modules and 15% for ships. My expectation was also 40% and 20%, but maybe im still doing something wrong, statistics is too low or they lowered it after last patch(as some people claim). So no problem, thanks ;)
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries	Posted - 2007.03.29 17:07:00 - [87] So I've been following this thread a while as I have a vested interest in invention (as well as two months of planned training time dependent on the results here). Hopefully I'll be able to add some hard data to this thread soon. In the meantime, however, I thought I'd throw out some thoughts I had on the success formula. My familiarity with other reverse engineered CCP forumlae leads me to believe that the formula we are looking for will be something like: (Base Chance) x (1+Skill1x0.05) x (1+Skill2x0.05) x (1+Skill3x0.05) x MetaMod x Decryptor The big question mark then is the base chance and how the meta-item affects the outcome. I'd originally been operating under the assumption that the base chance was around 10-15% for ships and 30-35% for modules, but then I had an interesting thought. What if we accept the 20% and 40% base chances previously mentioned and instead look at the meta-item as a penalty reduction? If we assume that a job with no meta item gives you a 25% penalty (CCP loves their 5% after all) and that each meta-level of an item reduces that by 5% then we end up very close to the numbers we're seeing. --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Paxton Industries is recruiting.
Meau	Posted - 2007.03.29 17:11:00 - [88] Edited by: Meau on 29/03/2007 17:08:48 Originally by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale Stuff All power to you! My brain hurts after answering the other formula post ;), so i welcome a fresh breeze. I fully agree that currently using a meta-level as penalty reduction factor looks most promising.
Vladimir Tinakin Caldari Hadean Drive Yards Archaean Cooperative	Posted - 2007.03.29 17:33:00 - [89] Interesting twist to it...now that I think about it, that does seem to have promise. However, that also implies that there is a limit to the returns--so using a faction or officer item (if you were psychotic) would be overshooting the metamod penalty...unless maybe its a fixed penalty--or negative percentage--reduced by the meta level, with the possibility of breaking into the positive percentages (turning it into a bonus)? Testing that would be difficult at best...are faction items even seeded on Singularity? Still, this would imply that ship invention is still Borked due to the lack of meta for ships. ----------------------------------------------- Adm Vladimir Tinakin CFO Hadean Drive Yards
Lena Carebear	Posted - 2007.03.29 17:43:00 - [90] there is somethin unexceptet in invention ... mabe a stealth nerf ... maybe aother factor that no one knows i personaly have done over 150 - 200 module ivention jobs 2-3 days bevore there was a channge i think after 1.4 nothing change it mut be 2-3 days bevore bevore i have a sucess rate of 80-90 % with skills lvl4 and meta lvl 4 item. now i have with the same system a rate of 33-40 % this shows after many inventions not just after a couple jobs so please dont answer " no luck " so in my opinion there are 3 possible things 1. Stealth nerf 2. sucess factor lowers the more invention jobs started 3. sucess factor dynamical changed by ccp

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