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So... PLEX prices

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Scout Ops Red Federation	Posted - 2010.03.22 18:22:00 - [1] PLEX cards are suddenly getting more and more expensive any particular reason?
Taram Caldar Blackwater USA Inc. Gentlemen's Club	Posted - 2010.03.22 18:42:00 - [2] People are stupid. Pretty much a fact of life. Market Alerts Mailing List
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.03.22 19:20:00 - [3] Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large numbers.. Amarr for Life
Carniflex StarHunt Systematic-Chaos	Posted - 2010.03.22 19:27:00 - [4] Originally by: Scout Ops PLEX cards are suddenly getting more and more expensive any particular reason? Market manipulation. It's only in Jita atm from few regions I looked at. You can get them approx 15 mil cheaper in other trade hubs (Amarr for example). Someone has dumped some isk on it and is trying to push PLEX in Jita to 300 or above. When lemmings follow he domps and someone else is left holding the bag. If timing is correct ;)
Breaker77 Gallente Reclamation Industries	Posted - 2010.03.22 19:41:00 - [5] Also don't forget that it's nearing summertime which means more people online as school gets closer to being out for the summer. More demand = higher prices.
Professor Leech Transmetropolitan	Posted - 2010.03.22 20:05:00 - [6] Demand is up or down and supply is up or down. I just ** my pants. Originally by:** Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
QuintusCodus	Posted - 2010.03.22 23:30:00 - [7] I blame the idiots in GTC market, lack of expertise as marketeers.
Professor Leech Transmetropolitan	Posted - 2010.03.23 00:16:00 - [8] Trending up over a period of three weeks isn't suddenly. Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
SetrakDark DarkCorp Holdings	Posted - 2010.03.23 00:52:00 - [9] Edited by: SetrakDark on 23/03/2010 00:53:00 Originally by: Professor Leech Trending up over a period of three weeks isn't suddenly. I like the cut of your jib. Pending the Wise and Venerable MD Council's (WVMDC) confirmation, I'd like to induct you into the MD Elite.
Professor Leech Transmetropolitan	Posted - 2010.03.23 02:06:00 - [10] If that means getting random convos, evemails and single shares from people that I don't know can I take another option? Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places

Kenz Rider J Club	Posted - 2010.03.23 02:24:00 - [11] Only disconcerting aspect is high bid/ask spreads in Jita, but that could just point to market inefficiency in adjusting to quick price moves. Bullish factors: Volume strong. Double bottom price formation over past several months. Trading at the top of volatility channel. Below long-term average price. Order book favored sellers as of yesterday but I haven't run my models on the book today. A quick visual analysis appears that this has reversed and the order book favors buyers. Market is probably short-term overbought which doesn't take a genius to figure out. Jita vs other hubs is meaningless. Jita is the largest market by a large margin for PLEX and there are many inefficient and disinterested players in the other hubs.
Brock Nelson Caldari Flux Technologies Inc SRS.	Posted - 2010.03.23 02:27:00 - [12] Originally by: SetrakDark Edited by: SetrakDark on 23/03/2010 00:53:00 Originally by: Professor Leech Trending up over a period of three weeks isn't suddenly. I like the cut of your jib. Pending the Wise and Venerable MD Council's (WVMDC) confirmation, I'd like to induct you into the MD Elite. SetrakDark, meet Companion Qube. Qube, meet SetrakDark Store \| Get SRS
Caldari 5 Amarr The Element Syndicate Hand That Feeds	Posted - 2010.03.23 02:31:00 - [13] Real World Economic Crisis!! People want more ISK for real life cash :)
Kenz Rider J Club	Posted - 2010.03.23 02:49:00 - [14] Very interesting, I just ran my model on the Jita order book and it's quite crazy how big the supply demand imbalance is right now. It's almost completely opposite how it was a month ago for example. The order book also appears very disorderly compared to how it normally looks. -Realistic buy orders outnumber sells 2.5:1. -Dispersion versus my regression model is very high compared to historical on both buys and sells. - Slope of buy and sells is slightly above average.
Clair Bear Ursine Research and Production	Posted - 2010.03.23 06:17:00 - [15] That, and I think the usual suspects in the Jita PLEX market have been sucked into League of Legends and SC2 beta for the past month. And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question?
OPX2	Posted - 2010.03.23 10:40:00 - [16] Surely they realize the current sell price is too high. According to EVE-Metrics, stock is moving at a hair over 270M mark. While buy orders in other regions are being filled instead of sell orders.
Carniflex StarHunt Systematic-Chaos	Posted - 2010.03.23 10:46:00 - [17] Originally by: Kenz Rider Very interesting, I just ran my model on the Jita order book and it's quite crazy how big the supply demand imbalance is right now. It's almost completely opposite how it was a month ago for example. The order book also appears very disorderly compared to how it normally looks. -Realistic buy orders outnumber sells 2.5:1. -Dispersion versus my regression model is very high compared to historical on both buys and sells. - Slope of buy and sells is slightly above average. There is this trick with right skills where you have to put only a bit isk on line to post relatively high volume buy orders that get automatically removed as soon as someone tries to fulfill those. It is standard practice in market manipulation to use that trick to give appearance of huge demand - while those orders disappear as soon as someone tries to actually fulfill those. I'm sure there is some real offers also in the mix, but most of those are bogus. If you look at trade volume in PLEX (i.e. number of PLEX traded per day) it's the same as 3 weeks ago.
Power Sauce Kenzzoku	Posted - 2010.03.23 13:29:00 - [18] Originally by: Carniflex Originally by: Kenz Rider Very interesting, I just ran my model on the Jita order book and it's quite crazy how big the supply demand imbalance is right now. It's almost completely opposite how it was a month ago for example. The order book also appears very disorderly compared to how it normally looks. -Realistic buy orders outnumber sells 2.5:1. -Dispersion versus my regression model is very high compared to historical on both buys and sells. - Slope of buy and sells is slightly above average. There is this trick with right skills where you have to put only a bit isk on line to post relatively high volume buy orders that get automatically removed as soon as someone tries to fulfill those. It is standard practice in market manipulation to use that trick to give appearance of huge demand - while those orders disappear as soon as someone tries to actually fulfill those. I'm sure there is some real offers also in the mix, but most of those are bogus. If you look at trade volume in PLEX (i.e. number of PLEX traded per day) it's the same as 3 weeks ago. Tell us more about these mind readers.
volhar	Posted - 2010.03.23 13:48:00 - [19] No mind reading involved, you simply use margin trading and make sure you don't have enough money in your wallet to fill the order and it will dissapear as soon as someone tries to fill it. In theory of course, I'd never do such a thing :)
SetrakDark DarkCorp Holdings	Posted - 2010.03.23 15:30:00 - [20] Originally by: Professor Leech If that means getting random convos, evemails and single shares from people that I don't know can I take another option? It means fast space ships, faster space women, an all the free crash that you can snort.

Kenz Rider J Club	Posted - 2010.03.23 16:35:00 - [21] Originally by: Carniflex Originally by: Kenz Rider Very interesting, I just ran my model on the Jita order book and it's quite crazy how big the supply demand imbalance is right now. It's almost completely opposite how it was a month ago for example. The order book also appears very disorderly compared to how it normally looks. -Realistic buy orders outnumber sells 2.5:1. -Dispersion versus my regression model is very high compared to historical on both buys and sells. - Slope of buy and sells is slightly above average. There is this trick with right skills where you have to put only a bit isk on line to post relatively high volume buy orders that get automatically removed as soon as someone tries to fulfill those. It is standard practice in market manipulation to use that trick to give appearance of huge demand - while those orders disappear as soon as someone tries to actually fulfill those. I'm sure there is some real offers also in the mix, but most of those are bogus. If you look at trade volume in PLEX (i.e. number of PLEX traded per day) it's the same as 3 weeks ago. The volume of buy orders is not critical to the model. The volume of sell orders is. I take little stock in the volume of buy orders for the reason you posited -- and I have one analytical method to evaluate the problem with greater mathematical rigor. I pointed out the 2.5:1 ratio because it says something about the volume of sell orders and was simple to state. More important is the development of the market over time. I have the order book saved for many periods going back quite a long time and the order book as of yesterday was dramatically different than it usually is. Tangentially this discussion gets back to one of the key features of the market, which you are hinting at -- PLEX in my view is a buyer's market, meaning the majority of PLEX transactions are seller initiated. This changes how you look at volume in a microstructure model.
OPX2	Posted - 2010.03.24 05:43:00 - [22] The higher they go, the harder they fall.
Dariah Stardweller Gallente Gung-Ho	Posted - 2010.03.24 08:35:00 - [23] 325 million in Lonetrek atm
Rosenoern	Posted - 2010.03.24 09:11:00 - [24] Originally by: Caldari 5 Real World Economic Crisis!! People want more ISK for real life cash :) omfg.... EVE = Real Life :D
Carniflex StarHunt Systematic-Chaos	Posted - 2010.03.24 12:41:00 - [25] Originally by: Kenz Rider The volume of buy orders is not critical to the model. The volume of sell orders is. I take little stock in the volume of buy orders for the reason you posited -- and I have one analytical method to evaluate the problem with greater mathematical rigor. I pointed out the 2.5:1 ratio because it says something about the volume of sell orders and was simple to state. More important is the development of the market over time. I have the order book saved for many periods going back quite a long time and the order book as of yesterday was dramatically different than it usually is. Tangentially this discussion gets back to one of the key features of the market, which you are hinting at -- PLEX in my view is a buyer's market, meaning the majority of PLEX transactions are seller initiated. This changes how you look at volume in a microstructure model. Hehe. Too long words in the mix for me. I'm in physics, not in economy. However when looking at number of transactions per day in Jita I do not see no increased demand for PLEX as number of transactions seems to be same as before the spike. Then again I'm not involved in this little spike so PLEX price spiking in Jita leaves me relatively emotionless. I'm just saying that this seems like the usual manipulation, as in other regions price is remaining relatively stable (or was still few days ago) and volumes traded are the same. Markets are like balloon of air in my eyes. You can put gas molecules into it and apparent size depends on the temperature of that gas. Currently it seems that number of molecules is stable in the balloon but someone is heating it a bit making the balloon expand. Then again this is very simplified picture of it ofc.
Kenz Rider J Club	Posted - 2010.03.24 16:51:00 - [26] Originally by: Carniflex Hehe. Too long words in the mix for me. I'm in physics, not in economy. However when looking at number of transactions per day in Jita I do not see no increased demand for PLEX as number of transactions seems to be same as before the spike. Then again I'm not involved in this little spike so PLEX price spiking in Jita leaves me relatively emotionless. I'm just saying that this seems like the usual manipulation, as in other regions price is remaining relatively stable (or was still few days ago) and volumes traded are the same. Markets are like balloon of air in my eyes. You can put gas molecules into it and apparent size depends on the temperature of that gas. Currently it seems that number of molecules is stable in the balloon but someone is heating it a bit making the balloon expand. Then again this is very simplified picture of it ofc. In this case a smaller bubble is correlated with higher ISK prices of dollars (game time). If looking at it this way makes you uncomfortable then take the inverse: higher dollar prices of ISK is correlated with a larger bubble. Is it more fair to say this a dollar crash or an ISK bubble? That is another way to look at the issue. Volume in real life markets and the PLEX market is VERY tricky and is oft misunderstood. What matters more than volume is what is called "signed order flow" There can be 100 seller initiated transactions and 100 volume, 100 buyer initiated transactions and 100 volume, or somewhere in between; for example 50 buyer and 50 seller initiated transactions and 100 volume. In the first case prices tend to go down, in the second they go up -- but volume is still 100 in both cases. In markets where 100 people want to sell but there are only 80 buyers, well that's not when prices go down, that's when they crash.
Clair Bear Ursine Research and Production	Posted - 2010.03.24 19:00:00 - [27] PLEX prices always drift up a month or two ahead of an expansion (people getting their armies of alts ready), and slowly drift down after the expansion is actually released. Now is as good a time as any to soak up the available (and mostly inelastic) supply and manipulate the prices up. And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question?
Professor Leech Transmetropolitan	Posted - 2010.03.24 19:37:00 - [28] There's nothing to see here, move along. Don't even look at the graph. Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
Viral Goddess	Posted - 2010.03.26 23:35:00 - [29] Anecdotal evidence I already noticed is a lot of people I know have been buying more PLEX for isk off the market lately than I ever have seen before, and being away from empire the method they buy it is to ask someone with a Jita alt to buy one and contract it over to them. They don't ask for someone to fly around empire for them and find a better price, they ask for someone to buy one in Jita. More people buying PLEX using isk to pay for their account(s) and people away from empire not shopping around but instead relying on whatever market price in Jita being ok I think are the driving factors behind both the imbalance between Jita and other hub PLEX prices and the rising price. But again this is all anecdotal, but a tread I was thinking about the other day even before reading this thread.
Scout Ops Red Federation	Posted - 2010.04.16 01:41:00 - [30] it's not stopping... lol 310m and going up



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