EVE Search - Akita T - 5 billion ISK wager on Mineral Basket Prices

All Channels

Market Discussions

Akita T - 5 billion ISK wager on Mineral Basket Prices

» Click here to find additional results for this topic using Google

Monitor this thread via RSS [?]

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 .. 12 :: one page
Author	Thread Statistics \| Show CCP posts - 0 post(s)
Uppsy Daisy	Posted - 2010.05.17 11:23:00 - [1] Originally by: Akita T It could go either way for individual minerals depending on other factors I didn't bother to brush over with a fine-tooth comb. The BASKET however will be going down for sure, down hard. Originally by: Akita T Or, even better, care to also add a little wager to go with it ? You know, the old "put your money where your mouth is" (and in the hands of a mutually trusted 3rd party) ? What about, hmm, say, 5 bil ISK, sounds decent enough for you ? Please do not bother replying if you do not understand what the mineral basket is. Any takers...?
General klinkerhoffen	Posted - 2010.05.17 11:45:00 - [2] Oops, I replied by accident. What's a mineral basket? Do I put my minerals in it when I go shopping for minerals in my Hulk?
Taram Caldar Royal Black Watch Highlanders Warped Aggression	Posted - 2010.05.17 11:54:00 - [3] Originally by: Uppsy Daisy Please do not bother replying if you do not understand what the mineral basket is. Any takers...? How big is the basket? Can you put apples in with it? Maybe some muffins? :) Sorry... just absolutely couldn't resist ;) Market Alerts Mailing List
Jimmina	Posted - 2010.05.17 12:00:00 - [4] New to Eve, but not new to commodity/currency trading. Is a mineral basket what I think it is?
Uppsy Daisy	Posted - 2010.05.17 12:03:00 - [5] You are all very funny.
Jack Norris Caldari Flux Technologies Inc SRS.	Posted - 2010.05.17 12:13:00 - [6] Confirming that uppsy daisy is important by creating this thread
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2010.05.17 12:16:00 - [7] I've read the thread, send the 5 billion (both of you) if you are serious. Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame.
Tsang Chou Tsang Chou Bonds	Posted - 2010.05.17 13:00:00 - [8] We'll bite to the tune of 1.25b, provided you're willing to expand beyond the above single-investor buyout.
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.05.17 13:35:00 - [9] Edited by: Akita T on 17/05/2010 13:45:14 __ Ah, somebody's been reading the thread over in S&I, I see (the one where they "try to guess" where zydrine will go or whatnot), where I claimed the "mineral basket" will most likely go down hard a short while after the Tyrannis expansion goes live (the one with the insurance payout changes, if you've been stuck under a rock lately and have no idea which one that is), and where Javajunky was "hard pressed to believe in a crash in the mineral market" due to the upcoming expansion. Are there really are any takers to this sort of bet ?!? I'm still more than willing to throw ISK into the mix, same way a lot of other people in MD probably would too, seeing how enough of the MD crowd also believe the mineral basket will be going down post-expansion. We just have to see if there are any takers on the "no way will the mineral basket price go down" side of the bet (I kind of doubt that). If there really are some people that want to part from their ISK this way, we'd only have to agree on what constitutes the bet as being won/lost (a specific day the bet's result will be decided and the value the mineral basket must be over/under to qualify as win/loss... and if we have any "draw" criteria or not), and how much the 3rd party gets to keep for handling the ISK. ___ If not delayed again, Tyrannis should go live on May 26 (and PI on June 8), so let's pick July 1st (2010) as "judgment day", this should be long enough for the transitional effects of the expansion to have subsided (~5 weeks past Tyrannis, ~3 weeks past PI). For the "basket composition", let's use the perfect build material cost of a Raven. For individual mineral price, let's use "The Forge" regional average on that day as displayed by the in-game order setting value. As of a couple of minutes ago, the value of this particular basket calculated in this fashion was 71,383,363.88 ISK (minerals:2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74), which is ~65.64% of the platinum insurance payout of a Raven (which, by the way, sells for around 75.3 mil ISK in Jita, BELOW the 76.125 mil still-active "EIR breakeven" for a Raven). If you have any other suggestions for picking a suitable mineral basket, please say so. If the basket price goes under 50 mil ISK, I'd call that a resoundingly clear win for the "crash" crowd (over 30% drop compared to the already below-70%-of-baseprice level). If the basket price remains above 70 mil ISK, that would be a convincing enough win for the "no crash" crowd. I'd call the midpoint of 60 mil ISK for the basket as "not clear enough to be decided", and 5 mil ISK on either side as a reasonable "margin of error". So... * under 55 mil - "yes minerals crash" side wins ; * 55 to 65 mil - no clear winner/loser (postponed in one week increments until clear) ; * over 65 mil - "no mineral crash" side wins. Bets would be wired to the chosen 3rd party (or parties), which will only accept matching bets (i.e. person A bets X ISK on "no crash", person B has to bet the same X ISK on "yes crash"). As for the neutral 3rd party, I'd say 5% of the held ISK (10% of one side's bet) plus 1% for each postponed week should be somewhat sufficient motivation to bother. ___ P.S. I'm willing to match any number of bets up to a total of 5 bil ISK, me on the "yes crash" side. I'm perfectly fine with Shar Tegral as 3rd party. _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.05.17 13:52:00 - [10] Lets put it this way.. Anyone willing to bet on this is a fool, T has enough financial backing to effect the basket for a day or two, all she needs to do is set in motion whichever way she wants it to go June 29th which is a Tuesday, a low volume trade day. It's also known that during the week prices go down as there is not enough consumption compared to the weekend where all the players are playing. The odds are actually against anyone betting they will go up. Planetary Interaction will consume peoples time regardless of what they are doing, I would imagine for the first few weeks people are going to be tinkering or working out what is best. So people are just not going to PVPing as much, not as much faction wars (As if there was a lot anyway) and Miners can do it while they stare at roids all day. So the amount of minerals from mining WILL remain the same, but there would a noticeable lack of ship destruction. Which means a noticeable lack of ships being sold, which will result is a noticeable amount of minerals not being purchased. Even with 20-30b in these conditions you could easily buy and list lower. Remember, there is a formula for profit here as well. If I knew I was going to win a 5b, I could purchase 10b ISK worth of a product, knowing that I could realist it for a loss of say 4b. The result is 1B Profit. Just keep that in mind, the odds are in T's favour, and with her ISK she could easily manipulate the market, and I wouldn't put it past her to manipulate the market running at a loss just large enough where winning the bet will result in a profit, after all I would do it too Amarr for Life
My Postman	Posted - 2010.05.17 13:54:00 - [11] Nobody with a clear mind would bet against you on this, dear Akita, but i¦ll go and watch this thread, maybe you¦ll go and hit some "fortune hunters".
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.05.17 14:01:00 - [12] Edited by: Akita T on 17/05/2010 14:04:21 Originally by: SencneS with her ISK she could easily manipulate the market, and I wouldn't put it past her to manipulate the market running at a loss just large enough where winning the bet will result in a profit 5 bil is kind of peanuts, if by some freak random string of unique logic-shattering events I'd lose them (heck, make that 20 bil ISK if you want, it's still not too much of a loss to really hurt). We could go Forge 5-day averages (eyestimated value read directly from the graph line position) so it's far more tamper-proof (and the 5 mil buffer value both ways should be enough to counter any eye-reading error biases). Oh, and you severely underestimate my laziness Drawing up the post above was most of the effort I was willing to put into it already _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
Uppsy Daisy	Posted - 2010.05.17 14:25:00 - [13] Edited by: Uppsy Daisy on 17/05/2010 14:36:07 Excellent. Shar Tegral is 3rd party then. Anyone wishing to bet against Akita T, following her published definition of the 'Mineral Basket' (i.e. the Raven Mineral Basket), should send ISK to Shar Tegral and post here. Once confirmed, Akita T will send the corresponding quantity also to Shar Tegral. On Judgement Day, if the prices have gone down by Akita's definition she wins the pot. If not, the pot will be divided up such that all the others have doubled their money.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.05.17 14:59:00 - [14] Originally by: Akita T Oh, and you severely underestimate my laziness Like a lot of things we draw very similar conclusions, I just keep mine to myself I believe the mineral basket is going to dive as well. You don't even need to bring math or theory to back it. Just look at it now, minerals WANT to become cheaper that is why they are priced at the low-end of the "invisible" CCP set barrier, instead of the high-end. A lot of people are gambling on vanilla T1 loot drops are going to decrease mineral supply a lot.. I guess those are the ones that should gamble with you :) Amarr for Life
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.05.17 15:27:00 - [15] Edited by: Akita T on 17/05/2010 15:29:23 _ Well, the structures also have some minerals in the BPOs now on SiSi, not just PI stuff as at the very start, so the crash might not be THAT dramatic as the worst case scenario imagined before... I wouldn't have excluded a "worst case scenario" crash to around ~25% of former platinum payout before, now around ~50% of former platinum seems still almost certain (pretty much where this bet's "win" condition is), noticeably down from the current ~65%. They'd have to make more changes (and far more drastic ones) than what they already did to keep the basket stable anywhere near the current level. Originally by: Uppsy Daisy Excellent. Shar Tegral is 3rd party then. Pending Shar's approval of the amended terms _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
Proton Power Amarr Luck Yourself Into Isk	Posted - 2010.05.17 16:14:00 - [16] LYII Can be the 3rd party to take these bets if you like. + Side says mineral basket will go over 65 - Side says mineral basket will go under 55 Anything in the middle is a hold until one of those 2 things happen. I can take bets in increments of 100mil isk, and based on the % you bet on the winning side gives you the % of the winnings. Let me know if this is good or not, do not send isk until I clearly state what remarks to use and what character to send isk to. Want to confirm from the major players we are doing this
JASON W0RTHING Nomad LLP Wayfarer Stellar Initiative	Posted - 2010.05.17 16:59:00 - [17] Originally by: Akita T 5 bil is kind of peanuts I too, desire to one day consider 5 bil, "peanuts".
Dariah Stardweller Gallente The Knights Who Say Pew	Posted - 2010.05.17 17:07:00 - [18] I too, would one day be able to say sensible things about the development of prices on the market, as right now I'm pulling most of it out of my arse. And I have no idea where mineral prices are headed but I can't wait till Tyrannis hits cuz either way, it should be interesting.
Ambo I've Got Nothing	Posted - 2010.05.17 17:26:00 - [19] I can't believe that anyone who has seriously looked into this will think that the mineral basket will not crash. The only question in my mind is how long it will take for the prices to get down that low. 5 weeks after Tyrannis... Well, I wouldn't be surprised if prices had only dropped 10% or so by then. Having said that, I wouldn't bet any significant amount of isk on it. --------------------------------------
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.05.17 17:50:00 - [20] Originally by: Ambo 5 weeks after Tyrannis... Well, I wouldn't be surprised if prices had only dropped 10% or so by then. That would bring this particular basket down to ~64 mil, below the "undecided" threshold _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
Dethmourne Silvermane Gallente Silvermane Enterprises	Posted - 2010.05.17 18:03:00 - [21] Originally by: Akita T 5 bil is kind of peanuts Akita, can I haz some peanuts? Kthx. Regarding high-sec mining: Originally by: AmarrettoDiAmarr 3-4 million ISK/hr is perhaps .15 0r .20 US$/hr; not quite prison wages and you are around less honest people.
Lutz Major Austriae Est Imperare Orbi Universo	Posted - 2010.05.17 18:07:00 - [22] 1 billion for Akita's side Can someone provide a "barometer" of some sort? If not - tell me and I'll set up something similiar.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2010.05.17 18:26:00 - [23] Yall know me, I'm game as long as terms are clear. Just state the terms and leave that post unedited. Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame.
Uppsy Daisy	Posted - 2010.05.17 18:27:00 - [24] Before taking any more bets for 'down' we need 20 bill bet on 'up' first, to balance it. Methinks they will not materialise
Kharass Al'Quam Minmatar Fleet of Doom Phoenix Virtue	Posted - 2010.05.17 18:59:00 - [25] Calling it now, it will go up after the patch. The drone alloy changes and removing of tech1 battleships mods from loot table will make Trit and the mid end minerals sky rocket. I think you guys under estimate how many minerals go into the market from loot refining. And no i don't care that you will quote the mineral post from CCP two years ago. You called Tech way off and you are calling the basket way off now. try running a mission for a evening and see how many mins you get from refining the loot. God is my Co-pilot
Uppsy Daisy	Posted - 2010.05.17 19:08:00 - [26] Money where your mouth is
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.05.17 19:53:00 - [27] Edited by: SencneS on 17/05/2010 19:53:55 Originally by: Uppsy Daisy Before taking any more bets for 'down' we need 20 bill bet on 'up' first, to balance it. Methinks they will not materialise Not really, T is saying she'll take up to 20B ISK in "up" bets. She is saying "I'm the house saying I'm putting forth 20B that the market will crash, anyone can bet against me up to 20B worth." Amarr for Life
Uppsy Daisy	Posted - 2010.05.17 20:15:00 - [28] Originally by: Lutz Major 1 billion for Akita's side Can someone provide a "barometer" of some sort? If not - tell me and I'll set up something similiar. Yes. And this bet is 'for Akitas side'. 20 bill is already pledged for Akitas side. Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
Kazuo Ishiguro House of Marbles	Posted - 2010.05.17 20:59:00 - [29] Originally by: SencneS Lets put it this way.. Anyone willing to bet on this is a fool, T has enough financial backing to effect the basket for a day or two, all she needs to do is set in motion whichever way she wants it to go June 29th which is a Tuesday, a low volume trade day. This is quite apart from people like me who might find that a titan order comes through and decide to buy 35bn isk worth of stuff on a Tuesday --- 34.4:1 mineral compression
Vilgan i'Lakin Pirates and Ninjas	Posted - 2010.05.17 22:28:00 - [30] Edited by: Vilgan i''Lakin on 17/05/2010 22:31:20 So can we bet that it will be in the "undecided" category? Betting that it will go up or stay even would be reta-rded imo, but I also don't personally think it will crash that quickly.

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 .. 12 :: one page
First page \| Previous page \| Next page \| Last page

COPYRIGHT NOTICE
EVE Online, the EVE logo, EVE and all associated logos and designs are the intellectual property of CCP hf. All artwork, screenshots, characters, vehicles, storylines, world facts or other recognizable features of the intellectual property relating to these trademarks are likewise the intellectual property of CCP hf. EVE Online and the EVE logo are the registered trademarks of CCP hf. All rights are reserved worldwide. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. CCP hf. has granted permission to EVE-Search.com to use EVE Online and all associated logos and designs for promotional and information purposes on its website but does not endorse, and is not in any way affiliated with, EVE-Search.com. CCP is in no way responsible for the content on or functioning of this website, nor can it be liable for any damage arising from the use of this website.