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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.20 14:36:00 -
[61]
 Originally by: Charles37
Since no one else is willing to, I'll put 100mil up against AkitaT just for the hell of it. Personally, I agree with the argument of this thread[...]But, it's just a game.[...]Hopefully more people will place bets against her to make this more fun.
I agree to the terms laid out earlier in this thread (I'd prefer to use the Forge average just to make things simple and easy to determine) and I'll send my 100m to Shar Tegral in a bit.
As soon as Shar confirms it, I'm matching it.
Originally by: Tiruriku
As I mentioned in a previous post I'd like to put up some money as well, however I'm hoping Akita would consider revising allowing for a draw outcome so the funds are not held in perpetuity.
Well, I suppose if in 1 more month it's not below the threshold, it won't really get below... so, let's say, if by 1st of August 2010 it's not below 55 mil, the "no crash" also wins.
Let me re-post all of the terms in a post below that shall remain unedited 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.20 15:07:00 -
[62]
FINALIZED BETTING TERMS
The following assumes Tyrannis goes live on 26th of May 2010 (or at any time before 1st of June 2010).
If Tyrannis gets delayed more than one week, all dates below also move forward by the corresponding delay.
Betting closes on 31st of May 2010 (you can still commit your bet before 23:59:59 server time, but as soon as server time hits 00:00:00 June 1st, it's over).
You may place bets for either "yes crash" or "no crash".
You place a bet by announcing them in the forum (time of bet will be the timestamp of the LAST EDIT made to that post), and by subsequently wiring the ISK to a mutually agreed upon neutral 3rd party.
You must voice your concerns regarding this choice when placing your bet, otherwise it's assumed you agree to using the default 3rd party.
The default neutral 3rd party for this event is Shar Tegral.
The 3rd party reserves the right to retain 5% of the betting pool and an additional 1% for each starting week past the initial deadline for its services.
The "mineral basket" used will be the equivalent cost of the minerals needed for the perfect build needs of a Raven battleship as they were before (perfect build amounts should also remain the same after) Tyrannis.
The price of the minerals to be considered will be the average value for "The Forge" market as displayed in-game when you place an order.
The current basket value at this time is roughly around 71 mil ISK.
NOTE : if the price for any minerals on "judgment day" is noticeably (5%) above or below the 5-day average, the 5-day average will be used instead, to avoid as much as possible market manipulation attempts from influencing the bet's outcome, but only if somebody contests the outcome of the bet AND this correction would actually change the outcome.
Initial "Judgment Day" is 1st of July 2010.
If at this date, the basket is below 55 mil ISK, the "yes crash" side wins.
If at this date, the basket is above 65 mil ISK, the "no crash" side wins.
If no side wins at this date, the basket value is re-evaluated on a weekly basis, until it is either below 55 or above 65 mil ISK, in which case, the above rules apply at that date.
If by 1st of August 2010 neither side has won according to the above rules, the "no crash" side wins.
Winners will receive a maximum of 200% of their initial bet back (if we have a winner by 1st of July 2010 and the neutral 3rd party decides to not charge anything for its services) and a minimum of 180% of their initial bet (if the winning side is only decided by 1st of August and the 3rd party decides to keep the maximum permitted amount for its services).
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NOTE : bet of "yes crash" totaling up to 20 bil ISK will be instantly accepted and subsequently matched on the "no crash" side by Akita T, and up to an additional 1 bil ISK by Lutz Major, pending confirmation from the 3rd party.
Any "yes crash" bets after the "yes crash" side's bets go above 21 bil ISK will have to find a willing "no crash" better to cover before being declared valid.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.20 15:13:00 -
[63]
P.S. And vice-versa (to the last phrase in the above post).
In other words, only matching bets will get wired to the 3rd party.
If, for instance, one side's total is just 300 mil ISK, the 3rd parties will only receive a grand total of 600 mil ISK, 300 mil from each side, in order of bet timestamp.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.20 15:49:00 -
[64]
Edited by: Uppsy Daisy on 20/05/2010 15:52:08
It would be rude of me not to participate, even if just for fun.
I'll chuck in 250 million against you Akita (thats 'No Crash').
Will wire to Shar Tegral this evening GMT.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.20 16:32:00 -
[65]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Could we also get some kind of regular 'Basket Price' updates posted here as well?
Not really needed.
Just look at Raven Jita sales prices and subtract a few mil ISK (~4 mil right now) and you'd be very close to the basket price.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.20 21:02:00 -
[66]
500m Sent to Shar Tegral for 'no crash'
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.21 05:35:00 -
[67]
Edited by: Tiruriku on 21/05/2010 05:37:23
Edited by: Tiruriku on 21/05/2010 05:35:59
Originally by: Akita T
NOTE : bet of "yes crash" totaling up to 20 bil ISK will be instantly accepted and subsequently matched on the "no crash" side by Akita T
btw - Needs to be reversed
Originally by: Akita T
P.S. And vice-versa (to the last phrase in the above post).
Edit: Sorry, missed this
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2010.05.21 21:51:00 -
[68]
nobody messes with akita t and gets away with it
SKUNK
(o)
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.22 11:16:00 -
[69]
So... any more victims willing participants ?
(P.S. Shar Tegral seems to be busy with something else for now with not much time for EVE, just give it some time, I bet a cash-deposit-confirmation post for the above people will be shortly forthcoming)
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.22 23:07:00 -
[70]
Sorry for the delays was out of town and my "sexy" updater went offline. I see that there were three bets placed:
2010-05-20 21:02:00
Tiruriku deposited 500,000,000.00 ISK into Shar Tegral's account akita bet - 'no crash'
2010-05-20 19:04:00
Uppsy Daisy deposited 250,000,000.00 ISK into Shar Tegral's account Akita T bet on market
2010-05-20 04:04:00
Charles37 deposited 100,000,000.00 ISK into Shar Tegral's account Betting against AkitaT on mineral Basket
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.05.22 23:08:00 -
[71]
Thanks for the confirmation of the bets.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.22 23:19:00 -
[72]
First 3 bets matched, 850m wired.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Jan VanRijkdom
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Posted - 2010.05.23 14:36:00 -
[73]
Edited by: Jan VanRijkdom on 23/05/2010 14:36:17
Balderdash and poppycok, snicklefitz and nonsense, thats what I say!
No betting for me though.
This should be fun to watch. 
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.23 16:54:00 -
[74]
Thanks for the confirmation. Although I am fairly sure I will loose the money, at least it will provide me with a little excitement.
p.s. "Sexy" updater!? WTF!?
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.23 17:34:00 -
[75]
Edited by: Akita T on 23/05/2010 17:36:16
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
p.s. "Sexy" updater!? WTF!?
Name of a(n older) wallet app that works with the EVE API.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Seminole Sun
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Posted - 2010.05.24 03:39:00 -
[76]
I think a far more interesting bet would be the combined price of Isogen + Nocxium. I think EVERYONE agrees Nocxium will go up comparative to the other minerals and MOST people agree Isogen will too... What's unclear at this point is if they'll go up in real isk vs. where they are now or if it'll just be a relative increase.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.24 06:38:00 -
[77]
Originally by: Seminole Sun
I think a far more interesting bet would be the combined price of Isogen + Nocxium [...] up in real isk vs. where they are now or if it'll just be a relative increase.
Heh, that's a bet I'd never really make, as it's (at least for me) way too close to call.
I (try to) only make bets when I'm 90+% sure I know what will happen 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.25 05:27:00 -
[78]
Originally by: Akita T
So... any more victims willing participants ?
This is a shame really. This thread was created due to a lot of posters (none of which was me) responding negatively and ignorantly to Akita's figures and theories and his subsequent 'put your money where your mouth is' challenge. I've been reading Akita's posts for a while and do have some different theories of my own but dislike threads that have long since devolved beyond the point of a constructive conversation. A friendly gentlemens wager caught my attention and looked like a fun activity.
It would have been nice to see some of Akita's more vocal opposition joining in, but it looks improbable at this point.
Shar - Thank you for participating as the 3rd party. If at any point you find that you will be unavailable to play this role I have no objection to Akita holding my funds, as there is no trust issue here as far as I'm concerned. (And getting ahead of the obvious joke, no I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that it would save time since he would get them anyways  )
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.25 08:01:00 -
[79]
I agree.
Amazing how many are not prepared to back up their arguments with something solid.
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Makia III
Caldari
Cybernetic Innovations
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Posted - 2010.05.25 10:23:00 -
[80]
Nothing more solid then pixel money.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.25 16:20:00 -
[81]
Originally by: Makia III
Nothing more solid then pixel money.
Real-life money in the real-life banks is also mostly just pixel money too
You wouldn't laugh at that kind of pixel money though, would you ?
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Samroski
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Posted - 2010.05.25 18:14:00 -
[82]
I have no understanding of how the mineral basket works, and what is likely to happen :)
Still, this is the most entertaining thread in MD since Yi's scam (Yi?), thus I have sent 50m to Shar Tegral, betting on "no crash".
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.25 18:17:00 -
[83]
Originally by: Makia III
Nothing more solid then pixel money.
This is not exactly like gambling on a virtual casino with play money. To some extent you can consider ISK an analogue for real cash. It costs real money to pay for account fees each month and every penny you save by using plex instead of cash is real (non pixely) money you would otherwise not have had.
While, if successful enough, you could eventually reach a point where you have more ISK than you could convert to cash through savings (by offsetting fees during the lifespan of either the game or the player), at current plex prices Akita is betting up to $1000 US and my bet is about $25. Since I'm not yet paying for all my accounts with plex this could easily be considered a real $25 investment so it is literally putting your money on the line.
Pretty solid in my opinion.
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.25 18:26:00 -
[84]
Originally by: Samroski
I have no understanding of how the mineral basket works, and what is likely to happen :)
Still, this is the most entertaining thread in MD since Yi's scam (Yi?), thus I have sent 50m to Shar Tegral, betting on "no crash".
You can see this thread that lead to this one. I know Akita has posted a lot of information going back a long time. A quick search found this from a few years ago.
This isn't really a wager of whether minerals will go up or down in the patch, it is a wager on whether they will crash as there is a decent spread built into the rules.
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Samroski
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Posted - 2010.05.25 19:26:00 -
[85]
Originally by: Tiruriku
You can see this thread that lead to this one. I know Akita has posted a lot of information going back a long time. A quick search found this from a few years ago.
Thanks for the links. Possibly a little wiser after having read the above and Akita's more recent explanation.
My only hope is CCP now- who are likely to tweak things (probably in the 2nd patch after Tyrannis) to counter the impending crash :)
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.27 04:03:00 -
[86]
Originally by: Samroski
Still, this is the most entertaining thread in MD since Yi's scam (Yi?), thus I have sent 50m to Shar Tegral, betting on "no crash".
Confirming receipt of 50m, no crash.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 05:10:00 -
[87]
Matched 4th bet. 900 mil total so far. C'mon, you can do better than this guys and gals !
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Makro SSRI
Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2010.05.27 09:13:00 -
[88]
betting 500m on 'no crash'
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.27 09:39:00 -
[89]
This is starting to get interesting. Keep 'em coming!
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.27 10:11:00 -
[90]
Originally by: Makro SSRI
betting 500m on 'no crash'
Confirming receipt.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
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