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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.02 14:53:00 -
[121]
I said that the oversupply of tritanium from "broken P4" _won't_ cause trit to crash (much) below 2.5 thanks to NPC buy orders for broken P4s.
How's that any different from what you just said ? 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.06.02 14:57:00 -
[122]
 Originally by: Akita T
I said that the oversupply of tritanium from "broken P4" _won't_ cause trit to crash (much) below 2.5 thanks to NPC buy orders for broken P4s.
How's that any different from what you just said ?
It will only be a temporary hold until all the broken P4 parts are sold as there is no other way to get them presently.
Might affect the market for the next week when finally all the slow people realise the parts aren't worth sh@t.
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Qoi
New Eden Warriors
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Posted - 2010.06.02 15:07:00 -
[123]
Originally by: Akita T
How's that any different from what you just said ?
Good Question actually. I should have looked at what you said exactly after i thought about it a second time 
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.06.02 19:13:00 -
[124]
Isn't it fascinating how many *totally* unexpected events are taking place that could potentially affect the price of the mineral basket that none of us could have predicted?
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.06.02 21:56:00 -
[125]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Isn't it fascinating how many *totally* unexpected events are taking place that could potentially affect the price of the mineral basket that none of us could have predicted?
It really is. So much is happening you never could have predicted. I went into this mostly for fun, pretty sure prices would go down, but thinking there was a decent chance they wouldn't drop enough to lose the bet. What I thought were decent odds were probably terrible and that became evident as soon as the insurance fraud folks started posting the numbers of the insane number of ships they had gone through. It blows your mind.
Betting against Akita doesn't seem like a good investment in the long run but given all that is going on, win or lose, this is sure a fun contest to watch and worth the buy-in.
I still wish at least one of the truly outspoken 'anti-crash' MD members would have put down some serious money. Especially someone from the huge anti-crash thread running along this one.
Regardless, I'm having a good time and learning quite a bit.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.03 19:28:00 -
[126]
Edited by: Akita T on 03/06/2010 19:34:28
17.05.2010 : 71,383,363 ISK (2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74)
29.05.2010 : 70,056,585 ISK (2.71/5.73/27.94/52.24/117.20/1,299.84/2,912.48)
03.06.2010 : 68,287,827 ISK (2.72/5.74/25.57/49.48/122.86/1,236.37/2,854.45)
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.06.03 21:12:00 -
[127]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 03/06/2010 19:34:28
17.05.2010 : 71,383,363 ISK (2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74)
29.05.2010 : 70,056,585 ISK (2.71/5.73/27.94/52.24/117.20/1,299.84/2,912.48)
03.06.2010 : 68,287,827 ISK (2.72/5.74/25.57/49.48/122.86/1,236.37/2,854.45)
Akita - Care to fine tune your predictions for July 1 based on post-patch analysis and the PI impact, perhaps guessing the build price as of July 1, just for fun?
I'm pretty sure it is going to fall between the 55-65m range but will be surprised if it manages to hit 55m so quickly.
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Cigney
Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2010.06.03 21:20:00 -
[128]
What I love about this bet is that its damn near a guaranteed win if it goes into the 55-65 range and HOLDS. Because then, at some interval, CCP will lower the insurance payout again (it auto-adjusts on some frequency I'm not particularly aware of), and it'll go down again.
I kinda wanted to say this the other day, but I didn't want to interfere with the bet before the closing period ended - and if I understood correctly, the closing period has ended. All of you who bet against Akira are ****ed. It only had to go down another 3M isk and then stabilize until the next insurance adjustment.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.03 21:33:00 -
[129]
Originally by: Cigney
What I love about this bet is that its damn near a guaranteed win
I know, right ? That's exactly what I was telling them !
I guess that's the reason why most people that actually did bet were either betting almost certain they'd lose but didn't mind, or were just hoping it won't go down fast enough.
Quote:
it auto-adjusts on some frequency I'm not particularly aware of
Rumourmill has it that (hang on to your shorts) the whole process is manually triggered by CCP at whatever interval they deem "right".
It was second hand info by the time I heard it, so it might be wrong, but considering CCP's track record, I wouldn't be very surprised if it turns out to be true.
65 mil corresponds to a ~9% drop (needs to not happen by 1st of July), 55 mil corresponds to a ~23% drop (needs to not happen by 1st of August).
Insurances dropped ~35% already. I don't even think a second insurance drop is necessary for me to win by 1st of August, but hey, I'm not always right.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.06.03 21:38:00 -
[130]
Edited by: Tiruriku on 03/06/2010 21:44:23
Originally by: Cigney
What I love about this bet is that its damn near a guaranteed win if it goes into the 55-65 range and HOLDS.....
...All of you who bet against Akira are ****ed...
That is kind of the point of the bet. Those of us who bet against Akita believe believed that insurance prices aren't the sole determining factor in mineral prices and that as prices get lower supply will drop. I still don't think that dropping below 55m is a guarantee. Betting that mineral prices would go up would have been a little silly but this is really a bet of whether they'll drop below 55m by August 1 and that, at least in my possibly naive opinion, is not a sure thing.
There is a little emotion involved as well, I must admit. I trained a bunch of alts with 10m+ SP in mining only to watch mineral prices fall and fall, then retrained them to be L5 mission runners only to see that modified before I was even ready, so part of me keeps saying that surely CCP in a patch designed to help stabilize the mining profession would have some knowledge we don't and know that mineral prices won't possibly drop as low as 55m/raven by August.
I suppose that faith in CCP is what guarantees I will lose :) I'm only in for 500m and it is keeping me interested and learning more about the market.
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Cigney
What I love about this bet is that its damn near a guaranteed win
I know, right ? That's exactly what I was telling them !
Well, I'm listening NOW :)
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Andrea Griffin
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Posted - 2010.06.03 21:45:00 -
[131]
Originally by: Cigney
All of you who bet against Akira are ****ed.
Isn't this always the case though? Akita should have been hired as Eve's economist. He's consistently the most insightful and knowledgeable person I have seen in MD.
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.06.04 01:18:00 -
[132]
Originally by: Tiruriku
Edited by: Tiruriku on 03/06/2010 21:44:23
Originally by: Cigney
What I love about this bet is that its damn near a guaranteed win if it goes into the 55-65 range and HOLDS.....
...All of you who bet against Akira are ****ed...
That is kind of the point of the bet. Those of us who bet against Akita believe believed that insurance prices aren't the sole determining factor in mineral prices and that as prices get lower supply will drop.
Speak for yourself; I put up my money to get the ball rolling/goad others into doing it and as a form of entertainment. I have no expectation of getting my money back, nor did I when I placed my bet. While insurance prices might not be the *only* determining factor in the price of the basket, I sure as hell believe it's the most important factor by a long shot, which is why I sold off all of my bulk minerals reserves from reprocessed loot about two weeks before patch day.
And I mean hey, if by some freak accident I do end up getting my money back and then some from AkitaT, then I'm certainly not going to complain.
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.06.04 03:48:00 -
[133]
Edited by: Tiruriku on 04/06/2010 03:50:50
Originally by: Charles37
Speak for yourself
My apologies Charles. My opinion is of course my own, I'll edit the post.
What I meant to say is that many of the people, while of course not all, who felt that there would not be a significant crash seemed to believe that the effects of insurance were overestimated in this situation, and that was the basis for an argument against a crash.
I don't believe anybody betting in this thread was actually betting that mineral prices were going to go up, only that they were either not going to drop below 55m in the time frame allotted or, in your case and Uppsy Daisy's for example, just to get things going and have some fun. There are people who seriously believed prices were going to go 'WAY up', and I didn't want to get included with that group as I only believed they wouldn't drop below 55m.
The point I was trying to make, in an attempt to save face I suppose, was that there were enough proposed changes (reduced mission mineral drops, drone reprocessing, etc) that, without knowing the sheer number of insured & destroyed ships, it was plausible to believe that prices would not drop ~23% in 2 months; the drop in supply would be equal to or similar to the demand reduction from insurance. Alternatively, prices would fall somewhat and even more miners would stop mining, reducing supply to equilibrium.
That of course appears to be a mistake; however, what was predicted to be a near overnight 23% drop has been a relatively slow 4.5% decline so, while still downward, has been less drastic than expected. I was becoming slightly frustrated at how frequently it was pointed out how obvious this outcome would be and felt the need to rationalize my analysis, even if the conclusion is incorrect.
Welcome to MD, I suppose 
Once again, my apologies for implying I was trying to represent your views.
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Dariah Stardweller
Gallente
Gung-Ho
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Posted - 2010.06.04 18:29:00 -
[134]
Originally by: Akita T
Rumourmill has it that (hang on to your shorts) the whole process is manually triggered by CCP at whatever moment they deem "right" or "needed".
It was second hand info by the time I heard it, so it might be wrong, but considering CCP's track record, I wouldn't be very surprised if it turns out to be true.
*shivers
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.04 23:37:00 -
[135]
17.05.2010 : 71,383,363 ISK (2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74)
29.05.2010 : 70,056,585 ISK (2.71/5.73/27.94/52.24/117.20/1,299.84/2,912.48)
03.06.2010 : 68,287,827 ISK (2.72/5.74/25.57/49.48/122.86/1,236.37/2,854.45)
04.06.2010 : 68,067,904 ISK (2.71/5.75/25.41/49.22/125.49/1,228.40/2,819.89)
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Liang Nuren
Parsec Flux
War.Pigs.
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Posted - 2010.06.08 22:33:00 -
[136]
I actually came hunting this thread down to ask why none of the minerals had gone down in price... but if trit is being held steady by the broken items, why aren't the other minerals falling even faster?
-Liang
--
Liang Nuren - Eve Forum ***** Extraordinaire |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.09 07:54:00 -
[137]
Originally by: Liang Nuren
I actually came hunting this thread down to ask why none of the minerals had gone down in price... but if trit is being held steady by the broken items, why aren't the other minerals falling even faster?
Enough forewarning plus inertia equals prolonged bumpy ride 
Either ship prices need to fall down first for mineral prices to follow (most likely what will de eventually what drives prices down, but it's not happening yet, ship volumes dropped), or miners have to really start undercutting eachother as manufacturers start to refrain from manufacturing ; for ship prices to fall down people need to manufacture more ships than needed to start undercutting eachother significantly, which means miners won't need to undercut eachother too agressively. Overall, it will be a combination of both, with each party reluctant to shift prices... most manufacturers won't want to sell below what it cost them so they won't purchase a lot of materials in advance and sell only short batches, miners won't be too much in a hurry to sell leftover stockpiles at lowest prices, and so on and so forth, leading to short-term price increases as everybody is catching their breath.
Eventually, the trend resumes and it's going back down, then another stop, and another drop, and so on until a rough equilibrium is acheived.
I did expect all of this to go a bit faster, but I'm not too surprises it's "bidding its time".
Heck, for the past 3 days, prices have been slightly going upwards, and it probably won't be until tomorrow or the day after that they'll restart their plunge, stopping or going a tad bit up again by Sunday or Monday.
Pretty normal weekly cycles.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.06.09 10:51:00 -
[138]
Prices have turned the corner and will be rocketing upwards from now on.
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Ex Industrialist
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Posted - 2010.06.09 14:15:00 -
[139]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Prices have turned the corner and will be rocketing upwards from now on.
LOl I wish. If that happens everyone I know with stockpiles of refinables will be refine and sell 'em, instead of waiting to see what happens next.
One factor you may have overlooked is people who blew up their insured ships, incl cap ships, for the insurance pre patch who are now in the market for replacements. Should keep demand up for a time.
I'm also forced to wonder if CCP actually looked at what was being refined, instead of guessing. I figured they just guessed at which modules were being refined based on mineral composition, what if they did something sophisticated and got a weekly snapshot of exactly what was reprocessed into minerals? That could have much more of an impact on mineral supply and prices than a generic "nerf BS drops"
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.09 15:22:00 -
[140]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Prices have turned the corner and will be rocketing upwards from now on.
That's the spirit ! Hope dies last and stuff !
Just don't check back during the weekend, we wouldn't want morale down until Monday 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.06.11 21:12:00 -
[141]
I'm pretty surprised so far; I expected to have lost handily by this point in time, but it looks like I may end up having an unexpected infusion of cash come the first of July.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2010.06.11 21:57:00 -
[142]
looks like they're finally starting to crack today
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.06.11 22:45:00 -
[143]
Edited by: Uppsy Daisy on 11/06/2010 22:44:49
Confirming it's just an illusion.
Hope springs eternal
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
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Posted - 2010.06.11 23:35:00 -
[144]
It's been a busy few weeks- I've moved about a quarter of a trillion isk worth of minerals since the start of May. I suspect quite a lot of people are suddenly finding supercaps are just about affordable 
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34.4:1 mineral compression |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.12 01:54:00 -
[145]
Edited by: Akita T on 12/06/2010 01:58:16
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People who thought it would be an overnight price adjustment haven't dealt with the market much
It was pretty obvious the price trajectory would be "lumpy", but on a downwards trend nevertheless 
This stopped being a thread about whether or not prices would drop not long into the thread's life (since everybody with some ounce of brains decided they would eventually go down), and it became a "how long will it take prices to fall down to certain levels" bet instead.
It's more interesting this way anyway
Originally by: Charles37
I'm pretty surprised so far; I expected to have lost handily by this point in time, but it looks like I may end up having an unexpected infusion of cash come the first of July.
It only needs to fall ~2.3 mil more in the next ~3 weeks (it already fell ~4 mil in the first ~2 weeks) for it to go into up to 1-month overtime 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2010.06.12 03:23:00 -
[146]
I'm seeing tritaneum at an bid ask of 2.43/2.51 in Jita with a The Forge average of 2.42 in the last few hours...
thats a pretty big move isn't it?
The raven is definitely begging to crack.. below the previous IER floor with market makers only willing to buy about 15 total above 65 million... with a 100 for sale in recent orders below 70 million... ..
Just watching it... enjoying to see what paths markets follow in their moves.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.12 04:11:00 -
[147]
Yeah, the value displayed as "regional average" is already reasonably-long-time-averaged and I suspect outlier-trimmed, so it takes a while for it to adjust to current transaction value.
I chose that as yardstick because it's not very easily manipulable for a long time (long enough to matter for this bet, I mean), and doesn't jerk around up and down too fast either (so it's easier to visualize).
By the end of today (Saturday) we should see the next big drop, and by tomorrow evening (Sunday) it should level off to some degree, only to take another plunge next weekend. Pretty normal, actually. Heh.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Afra Raven
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Posted - 2010.06.12 06:53:00 -
[148]
I could be wrong but there is another string that could make the Minerals price fall even harder. Look at the Volume and prices of Large Meta 1+ Weapons, prices fall hard and are close to the refined Mineral worth.
Give it one or two more weeks and most Missionrunners will start to reprocess Meta 1-3 items causing more Minerals in the market. Although those Meta Items give less Minerals the sheer Volume will kill the market.
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raukosen
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Posted - 2010.06.12 15:55:00 -
[149]
Originally by: Akita T
Either ship prices need to fall down first for mineral prices to follow
Ship prices are dropping a lot ffs!
At least BSes
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Capita List
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Posted - 2010.06.12 16:32:00 -
[150]
Ship prices are actually still relatively high compared to where the minerals are dropping now. Ofcourse if you follow some retarted web listing rather than your own data, you might think those minerals are still afloat. lol
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