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Bel Arvardan
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Posted - 2010.05.18 02:24:00 -
[31]
It will crash after the second insurance payout adjustment. I would even bet money on it, but I dont trust anyone.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
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Posted - 2010.05.18 02:27:00 -
[32]
There is one possible solution to this challenge. Allow short selling MRDs.
Mineral Reserve Dollars (MRDs) are a measure of the mineral basket. It has been hovering around 0.92 ISK/MRD even with the Pyerite spike and most recent Nocxium volatility. If there is enough interest in people to short sell the mineral basket (MRDs), I could implement sort selling in the Exchange.
The procedure should be fairly straight forward and will only require a margin to implement.
Any takers?
Mineral Reserve Dollar (MRD) Currency Standard
18,000 MRD = 850 units Tritanium
+ 480 units Pyerite
+ 78 units Mexallon
+ 26 units Isogen
+ 20 units Nocxium
+ two units Zydrine
+ one unit Megacyte
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.18 08:47:00 -
[33]
No offense Block Ukx, but doesn't the ability to have shorts imply there are at least a few people that would be willing to take the corresponding longs ? Or, at least, if you don't want some sort of colossal fiscal meltdown on the "bank" side anyway... shorting profits always come packaged with the failures of the ones that took the longs you shorted, so to speak (I am aware it's not the correct terminology, but I hope you get the idea).
And just like this wager here, I fear there will be no takers, so you'd get exhausted working for a system nobody will actually get to use due to the difficulty in actually cashing out the shorts.
I might be wrong on this though, but I still can't see how people can make ISK if nobody else loses any ISK, and I'd hate the one that loses ISK to be your mineral bank itself 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Lutz Major
Austriae Est Imperare Orbi Universo
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Posted - 2010.05.18 08:53:00 -
[34]
 Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.18 10:32:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
Answer the question. Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction? How would that work?
Somepeoplearejustdense.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.18 10:36:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
I personally never read into this thread as Uppsy Daisy intending to bet against me, just as Uppsy Daisy being curious if anybody would be stupid brave enough to take the bet.
So far, no takers have presented themselves yet.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Troll o'Ninetails
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Posted - 2010.05.18 10:44:00 -
[37]
Edited by: Troll o''Ninetails on 18/05/2010 10:46:29
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
I personally never read into this thread as Uppsy Daisy intending to bet against me, just as Uppsy Daisy being curious if anybody would be stupid brave enough to take the bet.
So far, no takers have presented themselves yet.
Careful, youre huge ego may implode and generate a black whole that swallows the universe.
X
♥ VOTE TROLL ♥ |
Celia Therone
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Posted - 2010.05.18 10:55:00 -
[38]
Originally by: Bel Arvardan
It will crash after the second insurance payout adjustment. I would even bet money on it, but I dont trust anyone.
Do we know how quickly/often the insurance re-factoring happens?
Does the first re-factor happen on patch day, or patch day+x?
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.18 10:57:00 -
[39]
Originally by: Akita T
I personally never read into this thread as Uppsy Daisy intending to bet against me, just as Uppsy Daisy being curious if anybody would be stupid brave enough to take the bet.
Tick
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Lutz Major
Austriae Est Imperare Orbi Universo
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Posted - 2010.05.18 11:32:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
Answer the question. Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction? How would that work?
Somepeoplearejustdense.
So your answer is: "I don't have the balls to bet against the mineral basket going down" or "I started this thread, but don't know why"?
As far as I can see, the stakes are/would be as follows
Mineral basket bet:
0b 6b
| | | |
| | | | 20b
| | | | 15b
| | | | 10b
| | |xxxx| 5b
------ ------
UP DOWN Where is your blind, Daisy?
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Dzil
Caldari
SafeHouse Investments of Tautology
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Posted - 2010.05.18 12:05:00 -
[41]
I don't understand why anyone would take this bet. If you have 5 billion isk, and you think minerals will skyrocket, why not just buy up mineral reserves? If you're right you still make bank, and if you're wrong you've still got something.
Dzil's Corp Sales - 200m |
Vilgan i'Lakin
Pirates and Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.18 12:52:00 -
[42]
Can make money if you are confident the prices will stay even though ;P
I suspect that there is not much overlap between the group of people who have so much isk that 5B is peanuts and the group of people who think mineral prices will go up. Fools are usually too easily parted from their money to amass that much wealth and keep it.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.18 12:59:00 -
[43]
Originally by: Bel Arvardan
I would even bet money on it, but I dont trust anyone.
I often wonder... do people really understand what they are saying when they say it? This for instance, speaks more of the speaker than any possible subject. Firstly, because it is bull****. Everyone trusts someone. Or, more correctly, only stark raving mad hermits living in a cave on the ass end of nowhere don't trust anyone. A person sitting comfortably in a house, maybe their own, typing on a computer their brief thoughts across the internet is, by definition, a member of society. Productive may be debatable, usually by their mothers, but still a member of society. You have to trust someone along the way to get to that point. (I trust that the power will be provided until my post is accepted. I trust that my ISP isn't modifying any packets so that my thoughts get there. I trust that my neighbor hasn't punched a hole in my gas line and is maniacally laughing at my imminent demise.) Secondly, the statement really says "I would do x but" which means, "I wouldn't do x I just don't have the balls to be honest about it". By using some lame ass excuse that "I don't trust anyone" the poster can claim more courage than he really has. See, in the poster's mind, anonymity removes any ethical or moral judgment in people - because anonymity removes it from him. So, in essence, he feels that he can say anything without anyone being able to call him on it. After all, who cares, we are all anonymous. But he still fears that someone will call him on it (guilty conscious) so he hedges his bets by stating he doesn't trust anyone. Must be hard going through the day wanting to have a set of balls but being to afraid to let them grow.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.18 13:01:00 -
[44]
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
Answer the question. Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction? How would that work?
Somepeoplearejustdense.
So your answer is: "I don't have the balls to bet against the mineral basket going down" or "I started this thread, but don't know why"?
As far as I can see, the stakes are/would be as follows
Mineral basket bet:
0b 6b
| | | |
| | | | 20b
| | | | 15b
| | | | 10b
| | |xxxx| 5b
------ ------
UP DOWN Where is your blind, Daisy?
Q: I don't have the balls to bet against the mineral basket going down
A: Correct, and your point is? I never said I would bet. Show me.
Q: I started this thread, but don't know why
A: I started it in response to the thread Akita linked. Can you not read?
Q: Where is your blind, Daisy?
A: I don't know what you are talking about. Anyway, Akita pledged 20 not 5.
I still can't see the point in further bets on 'down' when no-one is betting up. You still don't get it do you?
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Ephia
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Posted - 2010.05.18 13:03:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Dzil
I don't understand why anyone would take this bet. If you have 5 billion isk, and you think minerals will skyrocket, why not just buy up mineral reserves? If you're right you still make bank, and if you're wrong you've still got something.
Because mineral prices might not double?
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Joe Starbreaker
M. Corp
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Posted - 2010.05.18 18:40:00 -
[46]
I'm happy to hold the betting money as trusted 3rd party!
No seriously, it'd be a good way for me to build my credit.
...
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
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Posted - 2010.05.18 19:29:00 -
[47]
The Mineral Reserve is in a unique position because it already holds a large mineral stockpile. We do more than hold onto a mineral stockpile; we do mineral trades in the open market. Most investors are interested in gaining from mineral trading. Trading profits are passed to the investors.
Keep in mind that we are a bit different than your typical investment. We trade to multiply the stockpile rather than to gain ISK. Share dividends are the result of an increase in stockpile volume, not asset price.
Originally by: Akita T
No offense Block Ukx, but doesn't the ability to have shorts imply there are at least a few people that would be willing to take the corresponding longs?
No, thatÆs not how shorts work.
Remember, BSAC is just the broker in the short. You as the short seller will ôborrowö the MRDs from the reserve (the broker) and sell them at todayÆs price. Before cashing any profits you must close your position, meaning you will buy MRDs at a future price and return them to BSAC. BSAC will not inquire any ôlossö of physical assets (minerals), as the borrowed MRDs will be returned.
Originally by: Akita T
shorting profits always come packaged with the failures of the ones that took the longs you shorted, so to speak (I am aware it's not the correct terminology, but I hope you get the idea).
No, your profit is the price difference between shorting and closing your position times the number of MRD borrowed minus a small (~ 0.05 %) broker fee. The broker (BSAC) will not loose the assets as they are returned back at closing.
Originally by: Akita T
And just like this wager here, I fear there will be no takers, so you'd get exhausted working for a system nobody will actually get to use due to the difficulty in actually cashing out the shorts.
Again, I think BSAC is in a unique position to implement shorting in the Exchange. It will require some coding, but the foundation is already there. I might have to place some limits in the daily short/closing volumes, but I think we could work out a reasonable system for handling shorts.
Originally by: Akita T
I might be wrong on this though, but I still can't see how people can make ISK if nobody else loses any ISK, and I'd hate the one that loses ISK to be your mineral bank itself
You have to remember that in shorting the risk resides on the short seller, not the broker. Before short selling you must post a margin. If your margin does not cover the price swing (in case it goes up) you might be forced to close your position or increase your margin. Your gain is limited to the price of the MRD (assuming it goes to 0), but your loss could be unlimited. At anytime, bounded by some pre-established rules, the broker has the right to close your position.
People going long only loose ISK if they sell when the price is down. But if you are going long, why would you sell when the price is down? They can hold on to the asset as long as they want and still earn share dividends. Nobody can force you to sell your assets!
In the other hand, short sellers are borrowers, and they can be forced to close their position to meet a margin call at the worse of times. They donÆt earn any dividends on borrowed shares. DonÆt underestimate the risks associated with short selling.
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.19 07:06:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Block Ukx
Keep in mind that we are a bit different than your typical investment. We trade to multiply the stockpile rather than to gain ISK. Share dividends are the result of an increase in stockpile volume, not asset price.
Well, that's... unusual.
I suppose that if you're confident it could work, meh, you could give it a try... no pain, no gain.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.05.19 07:08:00 -
[49]
If I understand this right Block, you're saying that I would borrow MRDs from the mineral reserve and immediately sell them to someone else. (not the mineral reserve)
Later, I can then buy MRDs off the market and return the borrowed shares to the exchange.
To me, there is an obvious problem here - I need someone who is willing to buy the shares in the first place. As Akita says, and as this thread is proving, no one is willing to take that bet.
Unless... am I right in thinking that MRDs can be redeemed for their mineral value? i.e. I could borrow the MRDs, change them for in-game minerals, sell those on the in-game market, buy minerals at a later date, change whatever quantity was required back into MRDs and then return the borrowed MRDs.
If this is the case then I'd certainly give it a go. 
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.05.19 07:17:00 -
[50]
Actually, I can't believe that would be allowed, people would just run off with the minerals.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
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Posted - 2010.05.19 11:04:00 -
[51]
Edited by: Block Ukx on 19/05/2010 11:05:05
Originally by: Ambo
If I understand this right Block, you're saying that I would borrow MRDs from the mineral reserve and immediately sell them to someone else. (not the mineral reserve)
No, when you go short, the amount of MRD borrowed is not sold to other players, instead I sell the equivalent minerals in the open market. While the balance of the sale is reflected in your account, you will not be allowed to withdraw ISK while holding a short position, you must post a margin, and you must close your position before withdrawing any ISK (or margin).
Originally by: Ambo
Later, I can then buy MRDs off the market and return the borrowed shares to the exchange.
There will be a different interface to close your position. At the close, I purchase the equivalent minerals of the market.
Originally by: Ambo
To me, there is an obvious problem here - I need someone who is willing to buy the shares in the first place. As Akita says, and as this thread is proving, no one is willing to take that bet.
No, all you are doing is borrowing the minerals I already have in reserve. You need to close your position before cashing out. So at the end I will end with the same amount of minerals I started with.
Originally by: Ambo
Unless... am I right in thinking that MRDs can be redeemed for their mineral value? i.e. I could borrow the MRDs, change them for in-game minerals, sell those on the in-game market, buy minerals at a later date, change whatever quantity was required back into MRDs and then return the borrowed MRDs.
That is basically my job. All you need to do is make a few clicks in the exchange.
Remember, first of all you need to post a margin, say 1.0 - 1.25 ISK/MRD (still open for debate), which would be held in a margin account. Once you close your position your margin is returned to your account and you can withdraw your profits.
Example:
ISK/MRDISKMRDshortMRDMarginBalance
0.93
0.92 1,000,000.00 1,000,000 (1,000,000) 920,000.00
MRD down
#1ISKMRDshort
0.85 920,000.00 (1,000,000) 1,000,000 1,070,000.00
0.84
At closing you earned 70,000 ISK
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Vilgan i'Lakin
Pirates and Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.19 12:48:00 -
[52]
the exchange always struck me as something that exists because people want to replicate irl economic stuff in game for emotional reasons, not because it actually works well for eve.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
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Posted - 2010.05.19 13:22:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Vilgan i'Lakin
the exchange always struck me as something that exists because people want to replicate irl economic stuff in game for emotional reasons, not because it actually works well for eve.
I think you need to know BSAC's four year history to understand the existence of the exchange. It is meeting a need that is not easily done ingame. Part of its existence is the unusual way we do share distributions on the Indices and BSAMR. The Exchange also acts as a third party to all share trades and allows real-time share trading (not possible ingame). Another example is short selling, which cannot be done in game, but could be implemented in the exchange.
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Durnin Stormbrow
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Posted - 2010.05.19 19:40:00 -
[54]
Edited by: Durnin Stormbrow on 19/05/2010 19:40:52
Originally by: Block Ukx
No, when you go short, the amount of MRD borrowed is not sold to other players, instead I sell the equivalent minerals in the open market. While the balance of the sale is reflected in your account...
Maybe I'm not unserstanding exactly what your proposing, but if someone wants to short minerals, wouldn't it be simpler for them to simply sell their MRDs & take the cash?
If you had a guarenteed line of credit to cover the margin I would completely understand where your going; but this being a game, the margin is covered with cash, so why go to the trouble?
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.19 20:37:00 -
[55]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 17/05/2010 13:45:14
* under 55 mil - "yes minerals crash" side wins ;
* 55 to 65 mil - no clear winner/loser (postponed in one week increments until clear) ;
* over 65 mil - "no mineral crash" side wins.
I read the other thread Akita linked, and find this interesting. The above rules specify July 1st as 'judgement day'. I would actually like to place a wager in the 'no mineral crash' side, but propose that if the build cost is in the 55-65m range there be a finite period of time until the contest is considered a draw, as you reach a point (given a relatively small 10m variance) that market conditions outside the scope of this theory would influence prices.
Ideally there would be no postponements at all since the effects of a crash should be significant enough to appear within a 5 week period or it isn't really a crash, but a gradual decline.
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Zea Aestria
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Posted - 2010.05.19 20:40:00 -
[56]
Edited by: Zea Aestria on 19/05/2010 20:40:20
Originally by: Block Ukx
In the other hand, short sellers are borrowers, and they can be forced to close their position to meet a margin call at the worse of times. They donÆt earn any dividends on borrowed shares. DonÆt underestimate the risks associated with short selling.
In the real world, a short seller is obligated to pay any necessary dividends to whomever they borrowed the shares from (the lender is still entitled to dividends since they are considered to still own the shares - however the company pays dividends to whomever the borrower sold the shares to; thus, someone (the short seller) must come up with the dividends for the lender). How will dividends be handled for short sellers of the MRD?
edit for spelling
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
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Posted - 2010.05.19 21:08:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Durnin Stormbrow
Maybe I'm not unserstanding exactly what your proposing, but if someone wants to short minerals, wouldn't it be simpler for them to simply sell their MRDs & take the cash?
Yes, short selling can be confusing, and IÆm not an expert on the topic. In AkitaÆs case, he does not own any MRDs, so he couldnÆt sell any. Going short will be like letting his MRD balance go to negative. Eventually, he will need to buy MRDs to zero his MRD balance (closing his position).
Originally by: Zea Aestria
In the real world, a short seller is obligated to pay any necessary dividends to whomever they borrowed the shares from (the lender is still entitled to dividends since they are considered to still own the shares - however the company pays dividends to whomever the borrower sold the shares to; thus, someone (the short seller) must come up with the dividends for the lender). How will dividends be handled for short sellers of the MRD?
That could be handled within the Exchange code. However, MRDs are easier since they do not pay dividends.
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Charles37
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Posted - 2010.05.20 03:42:00 -
[58]
Since no one else is willing to, I'll put 100mil up against AkitaT just for the hell of it.
Personally, I agree with the argument of this thread, that the mineral basket will go down. I've already sold off all the minerals I got from reprocessing my mission loot and I'm holding off on buying more minerals for my industrial activities because I think I'll come out ahead in the long run that way.
But, it's just a game. I make enough to pay for my accounts with PLEX and then some every month, and what's life if you don't live a little, if you don't take a risk once and a while? I know my bet is peanuts compared to what AkitaT is putting up, but it's what I feel comfortable playing with and willing to lose. Hopefully more people will place bets against her to make this more fun.
I agree to the terms laid out earlier in this thread (I'd prefer to use the Forge average just to make things simple and easy to determine) and I'll send my 100m to Shar Tegral in a bit.
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.20 04:44:00 -
[59]
Originally by: Charles37
Since no one else is willing to, I'll put 100mil up against AkitaT just for the hell of it.
As I mentioned in a previous post I'd like to put up some money as well, however I'm hoping Akita would consider revising allowing for a draw outcome so the funds are not held in perpetuity.
While I have the utmost respect for Akita I do not believe the basket will crash as significantly as he predicted. Most likely I suspect it will fall in between the two extremes and stay there. I can't, nor would I want to, match either the 5b or 20b figures but I would definitely be willing to put a few hundred million into the pot to make it interesting.
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Umega
Solis Mensa
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Posted - 2010.05.20 04:46:00 -
[60]
I just want to remind people.. cause for some reason this point is never brought up, probably because people are holding back to use it when Tyrannis hits..
T1 modules are not just used to be burnt down for minerals. They serve another purpose.
The varying magnitude of T2 modules is quite extensive.. and then on top of that is the volumn of each. And I think people quite under-estimate the numbers involved here. What is needed in the creation of T2 modules..
Point being, the near removal of T1 mods loot has a forked effect on minerals. No longer to be burnt down into minerals by mass amounts.. now they will swing the other way and be eating up minerals when people have to start producing them so T2 modules can continue to be manufactured.
I don't have a very concrete idea if such a swing is much of a counter weight to BS fraud mineral consumption to decide which Bet is safe with this 'arguement'. Just something I personally never see brought up.
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-Treat the EVE Market like you're a pimp and it is your 'employee'.. freely fondle it as you wish and make it pay you for it- |
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