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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.17 11:23:00 -
[1]
 Originally by: Akita T
It could go either way for individual minerals depending on other factors I didn't bother to brush over with a fine-tooth comb.
The BASKET however will be going down for sure, down hard.
Originally by: Akita T
Or, even better, care to also add a little wager to go with it ? You know, the old "put your money where your mouth is" (and in the hands of a mutually trusted 3rd party) ? What about, hmm, say, 5 bil ISK, sounds decent enough for you ?
Please do not bother replying if you do not understand what the mineral basket is.
Any takers...?
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General klinkerhoffen
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Posted - 2010.05.17 11:45:00 -
[2]
Oops, I replied by accident.
What's a mineral basket? Do I put my minerals in it when I go shopping for minerals in my Hulk?
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Taram Caldar
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
Warped Aggression
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Posted - 2010.05.17 11:54:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Please do not bother replying if you do not understand what the mineral basket is.
Any takers...?
How big is the basket? Can you put apples in with it? Maybe some muffins? :)
Sorry... just absolutely couldn't resist ;)
Market Alerts Mailing List |
Jimmina
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Posted - 2010.05.17 12:00:00 -
[4]
New to Eve, but not new to commodity/currency trading. Is a mineral basket what I think it is?
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.17 12:03:00 -
[5]
You are all very funny.
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Jack Norris
Caldari
Flux Technologies Inc
SRS.
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Posted - 2010.05.17 12:13:00 -
[6]
Confirming that uppsy daisy is important by creating this thread
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.17 12:16:00 -
[7]
I've read the thread, send the 5 billion (both of you) if you are serious.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Tsang Chou
Tsang Chou Bonds
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Posted - 2010.05.17 13:00:00 -
[8]
We'll bite to the tune of 1.25b, provided you're willing to expand beyond the above single-investor buyout.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.17 13:35:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Akita T on 17/05/2010 13:45:14
__
Ah, somebody's been reading the thread over in S&I, I see (the one where they "try to guess" where zydrine will go or whatnot), where I claimed the "mineral basket" will most likely go down hard a short while after the Tyrannis expansion goes live (the one with the insurance payout changes, if you've been stuck under a rock lately and have no idea which one that is), and where Javajunky was "hard pressed to believe in a crash in the mineral market" due to the upcoming expansion.
Are there really are any takers to this sort of bet ?!?
I'm still more than willing to throw ISK into the mix, same way a lot of other people in MD probably would too, seeing how enough of the MD crowd also believe the mineral basket will be going down post-expansion.
We just have to see if there are any takers on the "no way will the mineral basket price go down" side of the bet (I kind of doubt that).
If there really are some people that want to part from their ISK this way, we'd only have to agree on what constitutes the bet as being won/lost (a specific day the bet's result will be decided and the value the mineral basket must be over/under to qualify as win/loss... and if we have any "draw" criteria or not), and how much the 3rd party gets to keep for handling the ISK.
___
If not delayed again, Tyrannis should go live on May 26 (and PI on June 8), so let's pick July 1st (2010) as "judgment day", this should be long enough for the transitional effects of the expansion to have subsided (~5 weeks past Tyrannis, ~3 weeks past PI).
For the "basket composition", let's use the perfect build material cost of a Raven.
For individual mineral price, let's use "The Forge" regional average on that day as displayed by the in-game order setting value.
As of a couple of minutes ago, the value of this particular basket calculated in this fashion was 71,383,363.88 ISK (minerals:2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74), which is ~65.64% of the platinum insurance payout of a Raven (which, by the way, sells for around 75.3 mil ISK in Jita, BELOW the 76.125 mil still-active "EIR breakeven" for a Raven).
If you have any other suggestions for picking a suitable mineral basket, please say so.
If the basket price goes under 50 mil ISK, I'd call that a resoundingly clear win for the "crash" crowd (over 30% drop compared to the already below-70%-of-baseprice level). If the basket price remains above 70 mil ISK, that would be a convincing enough win for the "no crash" crowd.
I'd call the midpoint of 60 mil ISK for the basket as "not clear enough to be decided", and 5 mil ISK on either side as a reasonable "margin of error".
So...
* under 55 mil - "yes minerals crash" side wins ;
* 55 to 65 mil - no clear winner/loser (postponed in one week increments until clear) ;
* over 65 mil - "no mineral crash" side wins.
Bets would be wired to the chosen 3rd party (or parties), which will only accept matching bets (i.e. person A bets X ISK on "no crash", person B has to bet the same X ISK on "yes crash").
As for the neutral 3rd party, I'd say 5% of the held ISK (10% of one side's bet) plus 1% for each postponed week should be somewhat sufficient motivation to bother.
___
P.S. I'm willing to match any number of bets up to a total of 5 bil ISK, me on the "yes crash" side.
I'm perfectly fine with Shar Tegral as 3rd party.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.05.17 13:52:00 -
[10]
Lets put it this way.. Anyone willing to bet on this is a fool, T has enough financial backing to effect the basket for a day or two, all she needs to do is set in motion whichever way she wants it to go June 29th which is a Tuesday, a low volume trade day. It's also known that during the week prices go down as there is not enough consumption compared to the weekend where all the players are playing.
The odds are actually against anyone betting they will go up.
Planetary Interaction will consume peoples time regardless of what they are doing, I would imagine for the first few weeks people are going to be tinkering or working out what is best. So people are just not going to PVPing as much, not as much faction wars (As if there was a lot anyway) and Miners can do it while they stare at roids all day. So the amount of minerals from mining WILL remain the same, but there would a noticeable lack of ship destruction. Which means a noticeable lack of ships being sold, which will result is a noticeable amount of minerals not being purchased.
Even with 20-30b in these conditions you could easily buy and list lower.
Remember, there is a formula for profit here as well. If I knew I was going to win a 5b, I could purchase 10b ISK worth of a product, knowing that I could realist it for a loss of say 4b. The result is 1B Profit.
Just keep that in mind, the odds are in T's favour, and with her ISK she could easily manipulate the market, and I wouldn't put it past her to manipulate the market running at a loss just large enough where winning the bet will result in a profit, after all I would do it too 
Amarr for Life |
My Postman
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Posted - 2010.05.17 13:54:00 -
[11]
Nobody with a clear mind would bet against you on this, dear Akita, but i¦ll go and watch this thread, maybe you¦ll go and hit some "fortune hunters".
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.17 14:01:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Akita T on 17/05/2010 14:04:21
Originally by: SencneS
with her ISK she could easily manipulate the market, and I wouldn't put it past her to manipulate the market running at a loss just large enough where winning the bet will result in a profit
5 bil is kind of peanuts, if by some freak random string of unique logic-shattering events I'd lose them (heck, make that 20 bil ISK if you want, it's still not too much of a loss to really hurt).
We could go Forge 5-day averages (eyestimated value read directly from the graph line position) so it's far more tamper-proof (and the 5 mil buffer value both ways should be enough to counter any eye-reading error biases).
Oh, and you severely underestimate my laziness 
Drawing up the post above was most of the effort I was willing to put into it already 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.17 14:25:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Uppsy Daisy on 17/05/2010 14:36:07
Excellent.
Shar Tegral is 3rd party then.
Anyone wishing to bet against Akita T, following her published definition of the 'Mineral Basket' (i.e. the Raven Mineral Basket), should send ISK to Shar Tegral and post here.
Once confirmed, Akita T will send the corresponding quantity also to Shar Tegral.
On Judgement Day, if the prices have gone down by Akita's definition she wins the pot. If not, the pot will be divided up such that all the others have doubled their money.
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.05.17 14:59:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Akita T
Oh, and you severely underestimate my laziness
Like a lot of things we draw very similar conclusions, I just keep mine to myself I believe the mineral basket is going to dive as well. You don't even need to bring math or theory to back it. Just look at it now, minerals WANT to become cheaper that is why they are priced at the low-end of the "invisible" CCP set barrier, instead of the high-end.
A lot of people are gambling on vanilla T1 loot drops are going to decrease mineral supply a lot.. I guess those are the ones that should gamble with you :)
Amarr for Life |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.17 15:27:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Akita T on 17/05/2010 15:29:23
_
Well, the structures also have some minerals in the BPOs now on SiSi, not just PI stuff as at the very start, so the crash might not be THAT dramatic as the worst case scenario imagined before... I wouldn't have excluded a "worst case scenario" crash to around ~25% of former platinum payout before, now around ~50% of former platinum seems still almost certain (pretty much where this bet's "win" condition is), noticeably down from the current ~65%.
They'd have to make more changes (and far more drastic ones) than what they already did to keep the basket stable anywhere near the current level.
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Excellent. Shar Tegral is 3rd party then.
Pending Shar's approval of the amended terms 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Proton Power
Amarr
Luck Yourself Into Isk
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Posted - 2010.05.17 16:14:00 -
[16]
LYII Can be the 3rd party to take these bets if you like.
+ Side says mineral basket will go over 65
- Side says mineral basket will go under 55
Anything in the middle is a hold until one of those 2 things happen.
I can take bets in increments of 100mil isk, and based on the % you bet on the winning side gives you the % of the winnings.
Let me know if this is good or not, do not send isk until I clearly state what remarks to use and what character to send isk to. Want to confirm from the major players we are doing this
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JASON W0RTHING
Nomad LLP
Wayfarer Stellar Initiative
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Posted - 2010.05.17 16:59:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Akita T
5 bil is kind of peanuts
I too, desire to one day consider 5 bil, "peanuts".
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Dariah Stardweller
Gallente
The Knights Who Say Pew
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Posted - 2010.05.17 17:07:00 -
[18]
I too, would one day be able to say sensible things about the development of prices on the market, as right now I'm pulling most of it out of my arse.
And I have no idea where mineral prices are headed but I can't wait till Tyrannis hits cuz either way, it should be interesting.
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.05.17 17:26:00 -
[19]
I can't believe that anyone who has seriously looked into this will think that the mineral basket will not crash.
The only question in my mind is how long it will take for the prices to get down that low. 5 weeks after Tyrannis... Well, I wouldn't be surprised if prices had only dropped 10% or so by then. Having said that, I wouldn't bet any significant amount of isk on it. 
--------------------------------------
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.17 17:50:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Ambo
5 weeks after Tyrannis... Well, I wouldn't be surprised if prices had only dropped 10% or so by then.
That would bring this particular basket down to ~64 mil, below the "undecided" threshold
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente
Silvermane Enterprises
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Posted - 2010.05.17 18:03:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Akita T
5 bil is kind of peanuts
Akita, can I haz some peanuts?
Kthx.
Regarding high-sec mining:
Originally by: AmarrettoDiAmarr
3-4 million ISK/hr is perhaps .15 0r .20 US$/hr; not quite prison wages and you are around less honest people.
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Lutz Major
Austriae Est Imperare Orbi Universo
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Posted - 2010.05.17 18:07:00 -
[22]
1 billion for Akita's side
Can someone provide a "barometer" of some sort?
If not - tell me and I'll set up something similiar.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.17 18:26:00 -
[23]
Yall know me, I'm game as long as terms are clear.
Just state the terms and leave that post unedited.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.17 18:27:00 -
[24]
Before taking any more bets for 'down' we need 20 bill bet on 'up' first, to balance it.
Methinks they will not materialise
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Kharass Al'Quam
Minmatar
Fleet of Doom
Phoenix Virtue
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Posted - 2010.05.17 18:59:00 -
[25]
Calling it now, it will go up after the patch.
The drone alloy changes and removing of tech1 battleships mods from loot table will make Trit and the mid end minerals sky rocket.
I think you guys under estimate how many minerals go into the market from loot refining.
And no i don't care that you will quote the mineral post from CCP two years ago.
You called Tech way off and you are calling the basket way off now.
try running a mission for a evening and see how many mins you get from refining the loot.
God is my Co-pilot |
Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.17 19:08:00 -
[26]
Money where your mouth is
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.05.17 19:53:00 -
[27]
Edited by: SencneS on 17/05/2010 19:53:55
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Before taking any more bets for 'down' we need 20 bill bet on 'up' first, to balance it.
Methinks they will not materialise
Not really, T is saying she'll take up to 20B ISK in "up" bets. She is saying "I'm the house saying I'm putting forth 20B that the market will crash, anyone can bet against me up to 20B worth."
Amarr for Life |
Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.17 20:15:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Lutz Major
1 billion for Akita's side
Can someone provide a "barometer" of some sort?
If not - tell me and I'll set up something similiar.
Yes. And this bet is 'for Akitas side'. 20 bill is already pledged for Akitas side. Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
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Posted - 2010.05.17 20:59:00 -
[29]
Originally by: SencneS
Lets put it this way.. Anyone willing to bet on this is a fool, T has enough financial backing to effect the basket for a day or two, all she needs to do is set in motion whichever way she wants it to go June 29th which is a Tuesday, a low volume trade day.
This is quite apart from people like me who might find that a titan order comes through and decide to buy 35bn isk worth of stuff on a Tuesday 
---
34.4:1 mineral compression |
Vilgan i'Lakin
Pirates and Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.17 22:28:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Vilgan i''Lakin on 17/05/2010 22:31:20
So can we bet that it will be in the "undecided" category? Betting that it will go up or stay even would be reta-rded imo, but I also don't personally think it will crash that quickly.
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Bel Arvardan
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Posted - 2010.05.18 02:24:00 -
[31]
It will crash after the second insurance payout adjustment. I would even bet money on it, but I dont trust anyone.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
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Posted - 2010.05.18 02:27:00 -
[32]
There is one possible solution to this challenge. Allow short selling MRDs.
Mineral Reserve Dollars (MRDs) are a measure of the mineral basket. It has been hovering around 0.92 ISK/MRD even with the Pyerite spike and most recent Nocxium volatility. If there is enough interest in people to short sell the mineral basket (MRDs), I could implement sort selling in the Exchange.
The procedure should be fairly straight forward and will only require a margin to implement.
Any takers?
Mineral Reserve Dollar (MRD) Currency Standard
18,000 MRD = 850 units Tritanium
+ 480 units Pyerite
+ 78 units Mexallon
+ 26 units Isogen
+ 20 units Nocxium
+ two units Zydrine
+ one unit Megacyte
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.18 08:47:00 -
[33]
No offense Block Ukx, but doesn't the ability to have shorts imply there are at least a few people that would be willing to take the corresponding longs ? Or, at least, if you don't want some sort of colossal fiscal meltdown on the "bank" side anyway... shorting profits always come packaged with the failures of the ones that took the longs you shorted, so to speak (I am aware it's not the correct terminology, but I hope you get the idea).
And just like this wager here, I fear there will be no takers, so you'd get exhausted working for a system nobody will actually get to use due to the difficulty in actually cashing out the shorts.
I might be wrong on this though, but I still can't see how people can make ISK if nobody else loses any ISK, and I'd hate the one that loses ISK to be your mineral bank itself
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Lutz Major
Austriae Est Imperare Orbi Universo
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Posted - 2010.05.18 08:53:00 -
[34]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.18 10:32:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
Answer the question. Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction? How would that work?
Somepeoplearejustdense.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.18 10:36:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
I personally never read into this thread as Uppsy Daisy intending to bet against me, just as Uppsy Daisy being curious if anybody would be stupid brave enough to take the bet.
So far, no takers have presented themselves yet.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Troll o'Ninetails
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Posted - 2010.05.18 10:44:00 -
[37]
Edited by: Troll o''Ninetails on 18/05/2010 10:46:29
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
I personally never read into this thread as Uppsy Daisy intending to bet against me, just as Uppsy Daisy being curious if anybody would be stupid brave enough to take the bet.
So far, no takers have presented themselves yet.
Careful, youre huge ego may implode and generate a black whole that swallows the universe.
X
♥ VOTE TROLL ♥ |
Celia Therone
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Posted - 2010.05.18 10:55:00 -
[38]
Originally by: Bel Arvardan
It will crash after the second insurance payout adjustment. I would even bet money on it, but I dont trust anyone.
Do we know how quickly/often the insurance re-factoring happens?
Does the first re-factor happen on patch day, or patch day+x?
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.18 10:57:00 -
[39]
Originally by: Akita T
I personally never read into this thread as Uppsy Daisy intending to bet against me, just as Uppsy Daisy being curious if anybody would be stupid brave enough to take the bet.
Tick
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Lutz Major
Austriae Est Imperare Orbi Universo
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Posted - 2010.05.18 11:32:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
Answer the question. Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction? How would that work?
Somepeoplearejustdense.
So your answer is: "I don't have the balls to bet against the mineral basket going down" or "I started this thread, but don't know why"?
As far as I can see, the stakes are/would be as follows
Mineral basket bet:
0b 6b
| | | |
| | | | 20b
| | | | 15b
| | | | 10b
| | |xxxx| 5b
------ ------
UP DOWN Where is your blind, Daisy?
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Dzil
Caldari
SafeHouse Investments of Tautology
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Posted - 2010.05.18 12:05:00 -
[41]
I don't understand why anyone would take this bet. If you have 5 billion isk, and you think minerals will skyrocket, why not just buy up mineral reserves? If you're right you still make bank, and if you're wrong you've still got something.
Dzil's Corp Sales - 200m |
Vilgan i'Lakin
Pirates and Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.18 12:52:00 -
[42]
Can make money if you are confident the prices will stay even though ;P
I suspect that there is not much overlap between the group of people who have so much isk that 5B is peanuts and the group of people who think mineral prices will go up. Fools are usually too easily parted from their money to amass that much wealth and keep it.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.18 12:59:00 -
[43]
Originally by: Bel Arvardan
I would even bet money on it, but I dont trust anyone.
I often wonder... do people really understand what they are saying when they say it? This for instance, speaks more of the speaker than any possible subject. Firstly, because it is bull****. Everyone trusts someone. Or, more correctly, only stark raving mad hermits living in a cave on the ass end of nowhere don't trust anyone. A person sitting comfortably in a house, maybe their own, typing on a computer their brief thoughts across the internet is, by definition, a member of society. Productive may be debatable, usually by their mothers, but still a member of society. You have to trust someone along the way to get to that point. (I trust that the power will be provided until my post is accepted. I trust that my ISP isn't modifying any packets so that my thoughts get there. I trust that my neighbor hasn't punched a hole in my gas line and is maniacally laughing at my imminent demise.) Secondly, the statement really says "I would do x but" which means, "I wouldn't do x I just don't have the balls to be honest about it". By using some lame ass excuse that "I don't trust anyone" the poster can claim more courage than he really has. See, in the poster's mind, anonymity removes any ethical or moral judgment in people - because anonymity removes it from him. So, in essence, he feels that he can say anything without anyone being able to call him on it. After all, who cares, we are all anonymous. But he still fears that someone will call him on it (guilty conscious) so he hedges his bets by stating he doesn't trust anyone. Must be hard going through the day wanting to have a set of balls but being to afraid to let them grow.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.18 13:01:00 -
[44]
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction?
How about you? At least you started this thread. Put 20 billions down or what did you had in mind originally?
Answer the question. Why take any more until there are some in the opposite direction? How would that work?
Somepeoplearejustdense.
So your answer is: "I don't have the balls to bet against the mineral basket going down" or "I started this thread, but don't know why"?
As far as I can see, the stakes are/would be as follows
Mineral basket bet:
0b 6b
| | | |
| | | | 20b
| | | | 15b
| | | | 10b
| | |xxxx| 5b
------ ------
UP DOWN Where is your blind, Daisy?
Q: I don't have the balls to bet against the mineral basket going down
A: Correct, and your point is? I never said I would bet. Show me.
Q: I started this thread, but don't know why
A: I started it in response to the thread Akita linked. Can you not read?
Q: Where is your blind, Daisy?
A: I don't know what you are talking about. Anyway, Akita pledged 20 not 5.
I still can't see the point in further bets on 'down' when no-one is betting up. You still don't get it do you?
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Ephia
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Posted - 2010.05.18 13:03:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Dzil
I don't understand why anyone would take this bet. If you have 5 billion isk, and you think minerals will skyrocket, why not just buy up mineral reserves? If you're right you still make bank, and if you're wrong you've still got something.
Because mineral prices might not double?
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Joe Starbreaker
M. Corp
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Posted - 2010.05.18 18:40:00 -
[46]
I'm happy to hold the betting money as trusted 3rd party!
No seriously, it'd be a good way for me to build my credit.
...
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
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Posted - 2010.05.18 19:29:00 -
[47]
The Mineral Reserve is in a unique position because it already holds a large mineral stockpile. We do more than hold onto a mineral stockpile; we do mineral trades in the open market. Most investors are interested in gaining from mineral trading. Trading profits are passed to the investors.
Keep in mind that we are a bit different than your typical investment. We trade to multiply the stockpile rather than to gain ISK. Share dividends are the result of an increase in stockpile volume, not asset price.
Originally by: Akita T
No offense Block Ukx, but doesn't the ability to have shorts imply there are at least a few people that would be willing to take the corresponding longs?
No, thatÆs not how shorts work.
Remember, BSAC is just the broker in the short. You as the short seller will ôborrowö the MRDs from the reserve (the broker) and sell them at todayÆs price. Before cashing any profits you must close your position, meaning you will buy MRDs at a future price and return them to BSAC. BSAC will not inquire any ôlossö of physical assets (minerals), as the borrowed MRDs will be returned.
Originally by: Akita T
shorting profits always come packaged with the failures of the ones that took the longs you shorted, so to speak (I am aware it's not the correct terminology, but I hope you get the idea).
No, your profit is the price difference between shorting and closing your position times the number of MRD borrowed minus a small (~ 0.05 %) broker fee. The broker (BSAC) will not loose the assets as they are returned back at closing.
Originally by: Akita T
And just like this wager here, I fear there will be no takers, so you'd get exhausted working for a system nobody will actually get to use due to the difficulty in actually cashing out the shorts.
Again, I think BSAC is in a unique position to implement shorting in the Exchange. It will require some coding, but the foundation is already there. I might have to place some limits in the daily short/closing volumes, but I think we could work out a reasonable system for handling shorts.
Originally by: Akita T
I might be wrong on this though, but I still can't see how people can make ISK if nobody else loses any ISK, and I'd hate the one that loses ISK to be your mineral bank itself
You have to remember that in shorting the risk resides on the short seller, not the broker. Before short selling you must post a margin. If your margin does not cover the price swing (in case it goes up) you might be forced to close your position or increase your margin. Your gain is limited to the price of the MRD (assuming it goes to 0), but your loss could be unlimited. At anytime, bounded by some pre-established rules, the broker has the right to close your position.
People going long only loose ISK if they sell when the price is down. But if you are going long, why would you sell when the price is down? They can hold on to the asset as long as they want and still earn share dividends. Nobody can force you to sell your assets!
In the other hand, short sellers are borrowers, and they can be forced to close their position to meet a margin call at the worse of times. They donÆt earn any dividends on borrowed shares. DonÆt underestimate the risks associated with short selling.
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.05.19 07:06:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Block Ukx
Keep in mind that we are a bit different than your typical investment. We trade to multiply the stockpile rather than to gain ISK. Share dividends are the result of an increase in stockpile volume, not asset price.
Well, that's... unusual.
I suppose that if you're confident it could work, meh, you could give it a try... no pain, no gain.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.05.19 07:08:00 -
[49]
If I understand this right Block, you're saying that I would borrow MRDs from the mineral reserve and immediately sell them to someone else. (not the mineral reserve)
Later, I can then buy MRDs off the market and return the borrowed shares to the exchange.
To me, there is an obvious problem here - I need someone who is willing to buy the shares in the first place. As Akita says, and as this thread is proving, no one is willing to take that bet.
Unless... am I right in thinking that MRDs can be redeemed for their mineral value? i.e. I could borrow the MRDs, change them for in-game minerals, sell those on the in-game market, buy minerals at a later date, change whatever quantity was required back into MRDs and then return the borrowed MRDs.
If this is the case then I'd certainly give it a go.
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.05.19 07:17:00 -
[50]
Actually, I can't believe that would be allowed, people would just run off with the minerals.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
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Posted - 2010.05.19 11:04:00 -
[51]
Edited by: Block Ukx on 19/05/2010 11:05:05
Originally by: Ambo
If I understand this right Block, you're saying that I would borrow MRDs from the mineral reserve and immediately sell them to someone else. (not the mineral reserve)
No, when you go short, the amount of MRD borrowed is not sold to other players, instead I sell the equivalent minerals in the open market. While the balance of the sale is reflected in your account, you will not be allowed to withdraw ISK while holding a short position, you must post a margin, and you must close your position before withdrawing any ISK (or margin).
Originally by: Ambo
Later, I can then buy MRDs off the market and return the borrowed shares to the exchange.
There will be a different interface to close your position. At the close, I purchase the equivalent minerals of the market.
Originally by: Ambo
To me, there is an obvious problem here - I need someone who is willing to buy the shares in the first place. As Akita says, and as this thread is proving, no one is willing to take that bet.
No, all you are doing is borrowing the minerals I already have in reserve. You need to close your position before cashing out. So at the end I will end with the same amount of minerals I started with.
Originally by: Ambo
Unless... am I right in thinking that MRDs can be redeemed for their mineral value? i.e. I could borrow the MRDs, change them for in-game minerals, sell those on the in-game market, buy minerals at a later date, change whatever quantity was required back into MRDs and then return the borrowed MRDs.
That is basically my job. All you need to do is make a few clicks in the exchange.
Remember, first of all you need to post a margin, say 1.0 - 1.25 ISK/MRD (still open for debate), which would be held in a margin account. Once you close your position your margin is returned to your account and you can withdraw your profits.
Example:
ISK/MRDISKMRDshortMRDMarginBalance
0.93
0.92 1,000,000.00 1,000,000 (1,000,000) 920,000.00
MRD down
#1ISKMRDshort
0.85 920,000.00 (1,000,000) 1,000,000 1,070,000.00
0.84
At closing you earned 70,000 ISK
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Vilgan i'Lakin
Pirates and Ninjas
|
Posted - 2010.05.19 12:48:00 -
[52]
the exchange always struck me as something that exists because people want to replicate irl economic stuff in game for emotional reasons, not because it actually works well for eve.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
|
Posted - 2010.05.19 13:22:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Vilgan i'Lakin
the exchange always struck me as something that exists because people want to replicate irl economic stuff in game for emotional reasons, not because it actually works well for eve.
I think you need to know BSAC's four year history to understand the existence of the exchange. It is meeting a need that is not easily done ingame. Part of its existence is the unusual way we do share distributions on the Indices and BSAMR. The Exchange also acts as a third party to all share trades and allows real-time share trading (not possible ingame). Another example is short selling, which cannot be done in game, but could be implemented in the exchange.
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Durnin Stormbrow
|
Posted - 2010.05.19 19:40:00 -
[54]
Edited by: Durnin Stormbrow on 19/05/2010 19:40:52
Originally by: Block Ukx
No, when you go short, the amount of MRD borrowed is not sold to other players, instead I sell the equivalent minerals in the open market. While the balance of the sale is reflected in your account...
Maybe I'm not unserstanding exactly what your proposing, but if someone wants to short minerals, wouldn't it be simpler for them to simply sell their MRDs & take the cash?
If you had a guarenteed line of credit to cover the margin I would completely understand where your going; but this being a game, the margin is covered with cash, so why go to the trouble?
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.19 20:37:00 -
[55]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 17/05/2010 13:45:14
* under 55 mil - "yes minerals crash" side wins ;
* 55 to 65 mil - no clear winner/loser (postponed in one week increments until clear) ;
* over 65 mil - "no mineral crash" side wins.
I read the other thread Akita linked, and find this interesting. The above rules specify July 1st as 'judgement day'. I would actually like to place a wager in the 'no mineral crash' side, but propose that if the build cost is in the 55-65m range there be a finite period of time until the contest is considered a draw, as you reach a point (given a relatively small 10m variance) that market conditions outside the scope of this theory would influence prices.
Ideally there would be no postponements at all since the effects of a crash should be significant enough to appear within a 5 week period or it isn't really a crash, but a gradual decline.
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Zea Aestria
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Posted - 2010.05.19 20:40:00 -
[56]
Edited by: Zea Aestria on 19/05/2010 20:40:20
Originally by: Block Ukx
In the other hand, short sellers are borrowers, and they can be forced to close their position to meet a margin call at the worse of times. They donÆt earn any dividends on borrowed shares. DonÆt underestimate the risks associated with short selling.
In the real world, a short seller is obligated to pay any necessary dividends to whomever they borrowed the shares from (the lender is still entitled to dividends since they are considered to still own the shares - however the company pays dividends to whomever the borrower sold the shares to; thus, someone (the short seller) must come up with the dividends for the lender). How will dividends be handled for short sellers of the MRD?
edit for spelling
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
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Posted - 2010.05.19 21:08:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Durnin Stormbrow
Maybe I'm not unserstanding exactly what your proposing, but if someone wants to short minerals, wouldn't it be simpler for them to simply sell their MRDs & take the cash?
Yes, short selling can be confusing, and IÆm not an expert on the topic. In AkitaÆs case, he does not own any MRDs, so he couldnÆt sell any. Going short will be like letting his MRD balance go to negative. Eventually, he will need to buy MRDs to zero his MRD balance (closing his position).
Originally by: Zea Aestria
In the real world, a short seller is obligated to pay any necessary dividends to whomever they borrowed the shares from (the lender is still entitled to dividends since they are considered to still own the shares - however the company pays dividends to whomever the borrower sold the shares to; thus, someone (the short seller) must come up with the dividends for the lender). How will dividends be handled for short sellers of the MRD?
That could be handled within the Exchange code. However, MRDs are easier since they do not pay dividends.
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Charles37
|
Posted - 2010.05.20 03:42:00 -
[58]
Since no one else is willing to, I'll put 100mil up against AkitaT just for the hell of it.
Personally, I agree with the argument of this thread, that the mineral basket will go down. I've already sold off all the minerals I got from reprocessing my mission loot and I'm holding off on buying more minerals for my industrial activities because I think I'll come out ahead in the long run that way.
But, it's just a game. I make enough to pay for my accounts with PLEX and then some every month, and what's life if you don't live a little, if you don't take a risk once and a while? I know my bet is peanuts compared to what AkitaT is putting up, but it's what I feel comfortable playing with and willing to lose. Hopefully more people will place bets against her to make this more fun.
I agree to the terms laid out earlier in this thread (I'd prefer to use the Forge average just to make things simple and easy to determine) and I'll send my 100m to Shar Tegral in a bit.
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.20 04:44:00 -
[59]
Originally by: Charles37
Since no one else is willing to, I'll put 100mil up against AkitaT just for the hell of it.
As I mentioned in a previous post I'd like to put up some money as well, however I'm hoping Akita would consider revising allowing for a draw outcome so the funds are not held in perpetuity.
While I have the utmost respect for Akita I do not believe the basket will crash as significantly as he predicted. Most likely I suspect it will fall in between the two extremes and stay there. I can't, nor would I want to, match either the 5b or 20b figures but I would definitely be willing to put a few hundred million into the pot to make it interesting.
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Umega
Solis Mensa
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Posted - 2010.05.20 04:46:00 -
[60]
I just want to remind people.. cause for some reason this point is never brought up, probably because people are holding back to use it when Tyrannis hits..
T1 modules are not just used to be burnt down for minerals. They serve another purpose.
The varying magnitude of T2 modules is quite extensive.. and then on top of that is the volumn of each. And I think people quite under-estimate the numbers involved here. What is needed in the creation of T2 modules..
Point being, the near removal of T1 mods loot has a forked effect on minerals. No longer to be burnt down into minerals by mass amounts.. now they will swing the other way and be eating up minerals when people have to start producing them so T2 modules can continue to be manufactured.
I don't have a very concrete idea if such a swing is much of a counter weight to BS fraud mineral consumption to decide which Bet is safe with this 'arguement'. Just something I personally never see brought up.
----------------------------------------
-Treat the EVE Market like you're a pimp and it is your 'employee'.. freely fondle it as you wish and make it pay you for it- |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.05.20 14:36:00 -
[61]
Originally by: Charles37
Since no one else is willing to, I'll put 100mil up against AkitaT just for the hell of it. Personally, I agree with the argument of this thread[...]But, it's just a game.[...]Hopefully more people will place bets against her to make this more fun.
I agree to the terms laid out earlier in this thread (I'd prefer to use the Forge average just to make things simple and easy to determine) and I'll send my 100m to Shar Tegral in a bit.
As soon as Shar confirms it, I'm matching it.
Originally by: Tiruriku
As I mentioned in a previous post I'd like to put up some money as well, however I'm hoping Akita would consider revising allowing for a draw outcome so the funds are not held in perpetuity.
Well, I suppose if in 1 more month it's not below the threshold, it won't really get below... so, let's say, if by 1st of August 2010 it's not below 55 mil, the "no crash" also wins.
Let me re-post all of the terms in a post below that shall remain unedited
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.05.20 15:07:00 -
[62]
FINALIZED BETTING TERMS
The following assumes Tyrannis goes live on 26th of May 2010 (or at any time before 1st of June 2010).
If Tyrannis gets delayed more than one week, all dates below also move forward by the corresponding delay.
Betting closes on 31st of May 2010 (you can still commit your bet before 23:59:59 server time, but as soon as server time hits 00:00:00 June 1st, it's over).
You may place bets for either "yes crash" or "no crash".
You place a bet by announcing them in the forum (time of bet will be the timestamp of the LAST EDIT made to that post), and by subsequently wiring the ISK to a mutually agreed upon neutral 3rd party.
You must voice your concerns regarding this choice when placing your bet, otherwise it's assumed you agree to using the default 3rd party.
The default neutral 3rd party for this event is Shar Tegral.
The 3rd party reserves the right to retain 5% of the betting pool and an additional 1% for each starting week past the initial deadline for its services.
The "mineral basket" used will be the equivalent cost of the minerals needed for the perfect build needs of a Raven battleship as they were before (perfect build amounts should also remain the same after) Tyrannis.
The price of the minerals to be considered will be the average value for "The Forge" market as displayed in-game when you place an order.
The current basket value at this time is roughly around 71 mil ISK.
NOTE : if the price for any minerals on "judgment day" is noticeably (5%) above or below the 5-day average, the 5-day average will be used instead, to avoid as much as possible market manipulation attempts from influencing the bet's outcome, but only if somebody contests the outcome of the bet AND this correction would actually change the outcome.
Initial "Judgment Day" is 1st of July 2010.
If at this date, the basket is below 55 mil ISK, the "yes crash" side wins.
If at this date, the basket is above 65 mil ISK, the "no crash" side wins.
If no side wins at this date, the basket value is re-evaluated on a weekly basis, until it is either below 55 or above 65 mil ISK, in which case, the above rules apply at that date.
If by 1st of August 2010 neither side has won according to the above rules, the "no crash" side wins.
Winners will receive a maximum of 200% of their initial bet back (if we have a winner by 1st of July 2010 and the neutral 3rd party decides to not charge anything for its services) and a minimum of 180% of their initial bet (if the winning side is only decided by 1st of August and the 3rd party decides to keep the maximum permitted amount for its services).
___
NOTE : bet of "yes crash" totaling up to 20 bil ISK will be instantly accepted and subsequently matched on the "no crash" side by Akita T, and up to an additional 1 bil ISK by Lutz Major, pending confirmation from the 3rd party.
Any "yes crash" bets after the "yes crash" side's bets go above 21 bil ISK will have to find a willing "no crash" better to cover before being declared valid.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.20 15:13:00 -
[63]
P.S. And vice-versa (to the last phrase in the above post).
In other words, only matching bets will get wired to the 3rd party.
If, for instance, one side's total is just 300 mil ISK, the 3rd parties will only receive a grand total of 600 mil ISK, 300 mil from each side, in order of bet timestamp.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.20 15:49:00 -
[64]
Edited by: Uppsy Daisy on 20/05/2010 15:52:08
It would be rude of me not to participate, even if just for fun.
I'll chuck in 250 million against you Akita (thats 'No Crash').
Will wire to Shar Tegral this evening GMT.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.05.20 16:32:00 -
[65]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Could we also get some kind of regular 'Basket Price' updates posted here as well?
Not really needed.
Just look at Raven Jita sales prices and subtract a few mil ISK (~4 mil right now) and you'd be very close to the basket price.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.20 21:02:00 -
[66]
500m Sent to Shar Tegral for 'no crash'
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.21 05:35:00 -
[67]
Edited by: Tiruriku on 21/05/2010 05:37:23
Edited by: Tiruriku on 21/05/2010 05:35:59
Originally by: Akita T
NOTE : bet of "yes crash" totaling up to 20 bil ISK will be instantly accepted and subsequently matched on the "no crash" side by Akita T
btw - Needs to be reversed
Originally by: Akita T
P.S. And vice-versa (to the last phrase in the above post).
Edit: Sorry, missed this
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2010.05.21 21:51:00 -
[68]
nobody messes with akita t and gets away with it
SKUNK
(o)
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.22 11:16:00 -
[69]
So... any more victims willing participants ?
(P.S. Shar Tegral seems to be busy with something else for now with not much time for EVE, just give it some time, I bet a cash-deposit-confirmation post for the above people will be shortly forthcoming)
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.22 23:07:00 -
[70]
Sorry for the delays was out of town and my "sexy" updater went offline. I see that there were three bets placed:
2010-05-20 21:02:00
Tiruriku deposited 500,000,000.00 ISK into Shar Tegral's account akita bet - 'no crash'
2010-05-20 19:04:00
Uppsy Daisy deposited 250,000,000.00 ISK into Shar Tegral's account Akita T bet on market
2010-05-20 04:04:00
Charles37 deposited 100,000,000.00 ISK into Shar Tegral's account Betting against AkitaT on mineral Basket
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Charles37
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Posted - 2010.05.22 23:08:00 -
[71]
Thanks for the confirmation of the bets.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.22 23:19:00 -
[72]
First 3 bets matched, 850m wired.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Jan VanRijkdom
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Posted - 2010.05.23 14:36:00 -
[73]
Edited by: Jan VanRijkdom on 23/05/2010 14:36:17
Balderdash and poppycok, snicklefitz and nonsense, thats what I say!
No betting for me though.
This should be fun to watch. 
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.23 16:54:00 -
[74]
Thanks for the confirmation. Although I am fairly sure I will loose the money, at least it will provide me with a little excitement.
p.s. "Sexy" updater!? WTF!?
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.23 17:34:00 -
[75]
Edited by: Akita T on 23/05/2010 17:36:16
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
p.s. "Sexy" updater!? WTF!?
Name of a(n older) wallet app that works with the EVE API.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Seminole Sun
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Posted - 2010.05.24 03:39:00 -
[76]
I think a far more interesting bet would be the combined price of Isogen + Nocxium. I think EVERYONE agrees Nocxium will go up comparative to the other minerals and MOST people agree Isogen will too... What's unclear at this point is if they'll go up in real isk vs. where they are now or if it'll just be a relative increase.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.24 06:38:00 -
[77]
Originally by: Seminole Sun
I think a far more interesting bet would be the combined price of Isogen + Nocxium [...] up in real isk vs. where they are now or if it'll just be a relative increase.
Heh, that's a bet I'd never really make, as it's (at least for me) way too close to call.
I (try to) only make bets when I'm 90+% sure I know what will happen
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.25 05:27:00 -
[78]
Originally by: Akita T
So... any more victims willing participants ?
This is a shame really. This thread was created due to a lot of posters (none of which was me) responding negatively and ignorantly to Akita's figures and theories and his subsequent 'put your money where your mouth is' challenge. I've been reading Akita's posts for a while and do have some different theories of my own but dislike threads that have long since devolved beyond the point of a constructive conversation. A friendly gentlemens wager caught my attention and looked like a fun activity.
It would have been nice to see some of Akita's more vocal opposition joining in, but it looks improbable at this point.
Shar - Thank you for participating as the 3rd party. If at any point you find that you will be unavailable to play this role I have no objection to Akita holding my funds, as there is no trust issue here as far as I'm concerned. (And getting ahead of the obvious joke, no I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that it would save time since he would get them anyways )
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.25 08:01:00 -
[79]
I agree.
Amazing how many are not prepared to back up their arguments with something solid.
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Makia III
Caldari
Cybernetic Innovations
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Posted - 2010.05.25 10:23:00 -
[80]
Nothing more solid then pixel money.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.25 16:20:00 -
[81]
Originally by: Makia III
Nothing more solid then pixel money.
Real-life money in the real-life banks is also mostly just pixel money too
You wouldn't laugh at that kind of pixel money though, would you ?
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Samroski
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Posted - 2010.05.25 18:14:00 -
[82]
I have no understanding of how the mineral basket works, and what is likely to happen :)
Still, this is the most entertaining thread in MD since Yi's scam (Yi?), thus I have sent 50m to Shar Tegral, betting on "no crash".
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.25 18:17:00 -
[83]
Originally by: Makia III
Nothing more solid then pixel money.
This is not exactly like gambling on a virtual casino with play money. To some extent you can consider ISK an analogue for real cash. It costs real money to pay for account fees each month and every penny you save by using plex instead of cash is real (non pixely) money you would otherwise not have had.
While, if successful enough, you could eventually reach a point where you have more ISK than you could convert to cash through savings (by offsetting fees during the lifespan of either the game or the player), at current plex prices Akita is betting up to $1000 US and my bet is about $25. Since I'm not yet paying for all my accounts with plex this could easily be considered a real $25 investment so it is literally putting your money on the line.
Pretty solid in my opinion.
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.05.25 18:26:00 -
[84]
Originally by: Samroski
I have no understanding of how the mineral basket works, and what is likely to happen :)
Still, this is the most entertaining thread in MD since Yi's scam (Yi?), thus I have sent 50m to Shar Tegral, betting on "no crash".
You can see this thread that lead to this one. I know Akita has posted a lot of information going back a long time. A quick search found this from a few years ago.
This isn't really a wager of whether minerals will go up or down in the patch, it is a wager on whether they will crash as there is a decent spread built into the rules.
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Samroski
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Posted - 2010.05.25 19:26:00 -
[85]
Originally by: Tiruriku
You can see this thread that lead to this one. I know Akita has posted a lot of information going back a long time. A quick search found this from a few years ago.
Thanks for the links. Possibly a little wiser after having read the above and Akita's more recent explanation.
My only hope is CCP now- who are likely to tweak things (probably in the 2nd patch after Tyrannis) to counter the impending crash :)
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.27 04:03:00 -
[86]
Originally by: Samroski
Still, this is the most entertaining thread in MD since Yi's scam (Yi?), thus I have sent 50m to Shar Tegral, betting on "no crash".
Confirming receipt of 50m, no crash.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.05.27 05:10:00 -
[87]
Matched 4th bet. 900 mil total so far. C'mon, you can do better than this guys and gals !
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Makro SSRI
Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2010.05.27 09:13:00 -
[88]
betting 500m on 'no crash'
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.27 09:39:00 -
[89]
This is starting to get interesting. Keep 'em coming!
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.27 10:11:00 -
[90]
Originally by: Makro SSRI
betting 500m on 'no crash'
Confirming receipt.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Celia Therone
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Posted - 2010.05.27 10:33:00 -
[91]
Have to say that having just started missioning after the patch... I've either been pretty unlucky or the missions are a lot further away now due to the load balancing fix. The weapons also seem to have been replaced by '1 Metal Scrap' each. I didn't notice extra tags to make up for the difference.
If I have to fly my salvager 4 jumps for the junk that I just found then I'm not going to bother.
Can't help wondering if mission loot (and thus reprocessing) isn't going to drop off a lot more than I thought when I first read about the nerf.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.27 10:40:00 -
[92]
Matched 5th bet. 1.4 bil so far total.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Seminole Sun
|
Posted - 2010.05.27 15:20:00 -
[93]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Seminole Sun
I think a far more interesting bet would be the combined price of Isogen + Nocxium [...] up in real isk vs. where they are now or if it'll just be a relative increase.
Heh, that's a bet I'd never really make, as it's (at least for me) way too close to call.
I (try to) only make bets when I'm 90+% sure I know what will happen
I'll bet you 1 isk for pride ;)
I say Nocx and Iso combined (straight Nocx + Iso price) is up 30 days from now ;)
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Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
|
Posted - 2010.05.27 16:23:00 -
[94]
I'll stake 100m for no crash.
ISK sent to Shar Tegral @ 16:22 Eve time.
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Rodarine
|
Posted - 2010.05.27 17:11:00 -
[95]
well it is all relative. Prices have already plummetted 15-30% already, so maybe they dont drop significantly off that. Triyt was 3.0 forever, now can be easilly gotten for 2.4. Pyer was 7.7, but for the most part was 7.5 everywhere, is now easilly gotten for 4.6. Iso was 56-57 depending on time of day, now it is 43. Mex was 29 and sometimes 30, now its 24.5 just about everywhere. Nocx has gone up slightly, but mostly on speculation I would say. But it was 90 for a long while and now is creeping up to 115 in some places.
So the prices have already crashed, whether or not they rebound is anyones guess. But I would say that even with summer coming they probably wont rebound to what we saw 6 weeks ago.
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Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
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Posted - 2010.05.28 12:01:00 -
[96]
Originally by: Llyandrian
I'll stake 100m for no crash.
ISK sent to Shar Tegral @ 16:22 Eve time.
Bumped for response/acknowledgement.
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Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.05.28 13:56:00 -
[97]
Originally by: Llyandrian
Bumped for response/acknowledgement.
Sorry about that wait. Yup, receipt on that isk.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Uppsy Daisy
|
Posted - 2010.05.29 10:03:00 -
[98]
Crosses fingers that everyone starts building massive amounts of the most mineral consuming items in the game, like Titans.
Or 0.0 outposts...
Who'd have predicted that Akita?
If only the BPO copy times weren't so long...
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.29 17:08:00 -
[99]
6th bet matched, 1.5 bil total.
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Crosses fingers that everyone starts building massive amounts of the most mineral consuming items in the game, like Titans. Or 0.0 outposts... Who'd have predicted that Akita?
Hehe, you wish
That is indeed one extremely unexpected development, which might turn my almost completely certain victory in a pretty tight race.
Quote:
If only the BPO copy times weren't so long...
...and if only they wouldn't have just removed the NPC orders that enabled infinite supplies of cheap components
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Uppsy Daisy
|
Posted - 2010.05.29 18:00:00 -
[100]
Originally by: Akita T
Hey, you can still bet against me, at least you have better odds now
I'm already in for a meagre 250mill and I'm not going any higher...
|
Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
|
Posted - 2010.05.29 23:20:00 -
[101]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Crosses fingers that everyone starts building massive amounts of the most mineral consuming items in the game, like Titans.
Confirming that I will be purchasing at least 7bn trit over the next couple of weeks if all goes to plan, and have purchased about 5bn of it already in the week or so prior to the patch
---
34.4:1 mineral compression |
Koronos
Interstellar eXodus
BricK sQuAD.
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Posted - 2010.05.30 04:10:00 -
[102]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Bel Arvardan
I would even bet money on it, but I dont trust anyone.
I often wonder... do people really understand what they are saying when they say it? This for instance, speaks more of the speaker than any possible subject. Firstly, because it is bull****. Everyone trusts someone. Or, more correctly, only stark raving mad hermits living in a cave on the ass end of nowhere don't trust anyone. A person sitting comfortably in a house, maybe their own, typing on a computer their brief thoughts across the internet is, by definition, a member of society. Productive may be debatable, usually by their mothers, but still a member of society. You have to trust someone along the way to get to that point. (I trust that the power will be provided until my post is accepted. I trust that my ISP isn't modifying any packets so that my thoughts get there. I trust that my neighbor hasn't punched a hole in my gas line and is maniacally laughing at my imminent demise.) Secondly, the statement really says "I would do x but" which means, "I wouldn't do x I just don't have the balls to be honest about it". By using some lame ass excuse that "I don't trust anyone" the poster can claim more courage than he really has. See, in the poster's mind, anonymity removes any ethical or moral judgment in people - because anonymity removes it from him. So, in essence, he feels that he can say anything without anyone being able to call him on it. After all, who cares, we are all anonymous. But he still fears that someone will call him on it (guilty conscious) so he hedges his bets by stating he doesn't trust anyone. Must be hard going through the day wanting to have a set of balls but being to afraid to let them grow.
Sorry for the derail, but that is an absolutely epic demolition. Have you considered taking your skills to CAOD?
Anyway, carry on, sweet thread.
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Jan VanRijkdom
|
Posted - 2010.05.30 05:03:00 -
[103]
Lol, look, another admirer of Shars fabled blasts of innocent bystanders who have given him no reason for his attack. That's the kind of prey he likes best .
He hasn't the balls to take on anyone who matches/surpasses his wit, as is evidenced by his cry for help to CCP mods and non replies to mine and others scathing replies to his caustic posts.
You're right tho, an absolute demolition.
Funny when I demolish him, he doesn't take it so well....
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.05.30 05:42:00 -
[104]
I suppose the recent sudden drop in battleship sales prices (and also overall mineral costs) won't help at all to make more people come forward and take the bet... but the promise of extra usage for outposts/supercaps might.
Oh well, betting is still open for almost 2 full days, so if you're going to get into the fun... do it soon.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.05.31 11:32:00 -
[105]
Edited by: Akita T on 31/05/2010 11:32:38
Barely over half a day left until betting closes !
Last chance to gamble your ISK in an epic fashion !
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Samroski
|
Posted - 2010.05.31 12:10:00 -
[106]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 31/05/2010 11:32:38
Barely over half a day left until betting closes !
Last chance to gamble your ISK in an epic fashion !
You've done too good a job convincing everybody about your predictions Akita :)
With all the countless discussions (there was obviously more than one point of view) about mineral prices/insurance fraud/mission loot nerf etc over the last 8-10 months, I thought there would be more people interested in this bet.
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laksmi2
|
Posted - 2010.05.31 14:10:00 -
[107]
maybe the actions of certain individuals shouldnt be discounted in all this just saying
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Uppsy Daisy
|
Posted - 2010.05.31 15:12:00 -
[108]
Originally by: laksmi2
maybe the actions of certain individuals shouldnt be discounted in all this just saying
Be less cryptic.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.01 00:32:00 -
[109]
And betting is closed already.
Out of the (up to) 20 bil put on the line, only 1.5 bil of opposing bets were made.
Oh well... now we wait and see
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Tiruriku
|
Posted - 2010.06.01 07:56:00 -
[110]
Originally by: Akita T
Out of the (up to) 20 bil put on the line, only 1.5 bil of opposing bets were made.
Originally by: laksmi2
maybe the actions of certain individuals shouldnt be discounted in all this just saying
I don't know Akita. Looks like laksmi2 has something to say. Maybe we'll see shar confirm she placed an 18.5b bid against you (Not something I'm willing to wager on, of course )
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.06.01 20:26:00 -
[111]
Just as I thought a mass buy up of minerals for outposts would save me......
They make T4 Planet Mats reprocess into Trit.
Here comes a mass trit-dump onto the markets.
Sigh....
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Ex Industrialist
|
Posted - 2010.06.02 05:10:00 -
[112]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Just as I thought a mass buy up of minerals for outposts would save me......
They make T4 Planet Mats reprocess into Trit.
Here comes a mass trit-dump onto the markets.
Sigh....
When did this happen?
We're mining planets for Trit now? Won't Chribba be unhappy his veld is now worthless...
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laksmi2
|
Posted - 2010.06.02 06:48:00 -
[113]
my apologies to the betters here.
before patch i decided to go against the trend and invest in 5 m glossy compound and 15 m lustering alloy. which were supposed to increase in value after the patch.
during the last days i have the minerals resulting from reprocessing mentioned materials placed on the jita market, additionally to my usual mineral turnover. there is the possebility that this has put the prices of some minerals under pressure, unforseable by most that decided to bet.
most of the mins are sold now and the influx of those rather large amounts of mins could stop pretty soon. of course there could be a new source incoming. i hope that my actions have not resulted in influencing the betting negatively.
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Rip Minner
Gallente
ARMITAGE Logistics Salvage and Industries
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Posted - 2010.06.02 08:09:00 -
[114]
Originally by: laksmi2
my apologies to the betters here.
before patch i decided to go against the trend and invest in 5 m glossy compound and 15 m lustering alloy. which were supposed to increase in value after the patch.
during the last days i have the minerals resulting from reprocessing mentioned materials placed on the jita market, additionally to my usual mineral turnover. there is the possebility that this has put the prices of some minerals under pressure, unforseable by most that decided to bet.
most of the mins are sold now and the influx of those rather large amounts of mins could stop pretty soon. of course there could be a new source incoming. i hope that my actions have not resulted in influencing the betting negatively.
No how could you for see an massive dump on the market lowering the cost lmao 
Is it a rock? Point a Lazer at it and profit. Is it a ship? Point a Lazer at it and profit. I dont realy see any differnces here. |
Yiulian
Boathouse Industries
New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.06.02 09:42:00 -
[115]
Originally by: laksmi2
my apologies to the betters here.
i hope that my actions have not resulted in influencing the betting negatively.
If you didn't do it on purpose to skew the results of the bet you have very little to apologize for imo.
Besides, the timespan for the bet is long enough for this not to influence it much anyway, regardless of whether it would to begin with.
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Dr Mitsubishi
|
Posted - 2010.06.02 09:52:00 -
[116]
 how to open teh mineral basket:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkWmE_c_qno
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.02 13:29:00 -
[117]
Originally by: Rip Minner
No how could you for see an massive dump on the market lowering the cost lmao
Let's not forget the opposites though :
* there allegedly are NPC buy orders for broken components at 25k ISK a piece, so trit can't fall (much) under 2.5
* the removal of widescreen options allegedly did affect a lot of mining bots (so that should be a severe drop in macro-mined ore, at least until the "opposing side" fixes/updates their stuff)
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Qoi
New Eden Warriors
|
Posted - 2010.06.02 13:51:00 -
[118]
Originally by: Akita T
* there allegedly are NPC buy orders for broken components at 25k ISK a piece, so trit can't fall (much) under 2.5
Yeah because you can produce broken components from tritanium 
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.02 13:59:00 -
[119]
Edited by: Akita T on 02/06/2010 14:00:31
Originally by: Qoi
Originally by: Akita T
* there allegedly are NPC buy orders for broken components at 25k ISK a piece, so trit can't fall (much) under 2.5
Yeah because you can produce broken components from tritanium
Re-read what you quoted and add "just because of the glut of broken components in circulation" at the end (which would normally be self-understood, given how the sentence started).
P.S. If it's still not clear, I was giving examples of things that could PREVENT OR DELAY the crash of the mineral basket (i.e. give some hope to those that bet against me).
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Qoi
New Eden Warriors
|
Posted - 2010.06.02 14:33:00 -
[120]
Edited by: Qoi on 02/06/2010 14:33:26
Originally by: Akita T
P.S. If it's still not clear, I was giving examples of things that could PREVENT OR DELAY the crash of the mineral basket (i.e. give some hope to those that bet against me).
If prices fall below 2.5 ISK/unit, people will just sell to the buy orders. In any other case, they will dump lots of tritanium on the market, bringing the tritanium price down until it's at 2.5 ISK/unit, accelerating the mineral crash. (Of course there is not enough tritanium in those broken stuff to really affect the market, but that's what you are implying.)
How will an influx of tritanium help the price stay up? Is there some reverse psychology thing i missed?
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.02 14:53:00 -
[121]
I said that the oversupply of tritanium from "broken P4" _won't_ cause trit to crash (much) below 2.5 thanks to NPC buy orders for broken P4s.
How's that any different from what you just said ?
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2010.06.02 14:57:00 -
[122]
Originally by: Akita T
I said that the oversupply of tritanium from "broken P4" _won't_ cause trit to crash (much) below 2.5 thanks to NPC buy orders for broken P4s.
How's that any different from what you just said ?
It will only be a temporary hold until all the broken P4 parts are sold as there is no other way to get them presently.
Might affect the market for the next week when finally all the slow people realise the parts aren't worth sh@t.
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Qoi
New Eden Warriors
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Posted - 2010.06.02 15:07:00 -
[123]
Originally by: Akita T
How's that any different from what you just said ?
Good Question actually. I should have looked at what you said exactly after i thought about it a second time 
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.06.02 19:13:00 -
[124]
Isn't it fascinating how many *totally* unexpected events are taking place that could potentially affect the price of the mineral basket that none of us could have predicted?
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Tiruriku
|
Posted - 2010.06.02 21:56:00 -
[125]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Isn't it fascinating how many *totally* unexpected events are taking place that could potentially affect the price of the mineral basket that none of us could have predicted?
It really is. So much is happening you never could have predicted. I went into this mostly for fun, pretty sure prices would go down, but thinking there was a decent chance they wouldn't drop enough to lose the bet. What I thought were decent odds were probably terrible and that became evident as soon as the insurance fraud folks started posting the numbers of the insane number of ships they had gone through. It blows your mind.
Betting against Akita doesn't seem like a good investment in the long run but given all that is going on, win or lose, this is sure a fun contest to watch and worth the buy-in.
I still wish at least one of the truly outspoken 'anti-crash' MD members would have put down some serious money. Especially someone from the huge anti-crash thread running along this one.
Regardless, I'm having a good time and learning quite a bit.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.03 19:28:00 -
[126]
Edited by: Akita T on 03/06/2010 19:34:28
17.05.2010 : 71,383,363 ISK (2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74)
29.05.2010 : 70,056,585 ISK (2.71/5.73/27.94/52.24/117.20/1,299.84/2,912.48)
03.06.2010 : 68,287,827 ISK (2.72/5.74/25.57/49.48/122.86/1,236.37/2,854.45)
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Tiruriku
|
Posted - 2010.06.03 21:12:00 -
[127]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 03/06/2010 19:34:28
17.05.2010 : 71,383,363 ISK (2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74)
29.05.2010 : 70,056,585 ISK (2.71/5.73/27.94/52.24/117.20/1,299.84/2,912.48)
03.06.2010 : 68,287,827 ISK (2.72/5.74/25.57/49.48/122.86/1,236.37/2,854.45)
Akita - Care to fine tune your predictions for July 1 based on post-patch analysis and the PI impact, perhaps guessing the build price as of July 1, just for fun?
I'm pretty sure it is going to fall between the 55-65m range but will be surprised if it manages to hit 55m so quickly.
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Cigney
Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2010.06.03 21:20:00 -
[128]
What I love about this bet is that its damn near a guaranteed win if it goes into the 55-65 range and HOLDS. Because then, at some interval, CCP will lower the insurance payout again (it auto-adjusts on some frequency I'm not particularly aware of), and it'll go down again.
I kinda wanted to say this the other day, but I didn't want to interfere with the bet before the closing period ended - and if I understood correctly, the closing period has ended. All of you who bet against Akira are ****ed. It only had to go down another 3M isk and then stabilize until the next insurance adjustment.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.03 21:33:00 -
[129]
Originally by: Cigney
What I love about this bet is that its damn near a guaranteed win
I know, right ? That's exactly what I was telling them !
I guess that's the reason why most people that actually did bet were either betting almost certain they'd lose but didn't mind, or were just hoping it won't go down fast enough.
Quote:
it auto-adjusts on some frequency I'm not particularly aware of
Rumourmill has it that (hang on to your shorts) the whole process is manually triggered by CCP at whatever interval they deem "right".
It was second hand info by the time I heard it, so it might be wrong, but considering CCP's track record, I wouldn't be very surprised if it turns out to be true.
65 mil corresponds to a ~9% drop (needs to not happen by 1st of July), 55 mil corresponds to a ~23% drop (needs to not happen by 1st of August).
Insurances dropped ~35% already. I don't even think a second insurance drop is necessary for me to win by 1st of August, but hey, I'm not always right.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Tiruriku
|
Posted - 2010.06.03 21:38:00 -
[130]
Edited by: Tiruriku on 03/06/2010 21:44:23
Originally by: Cigney
What I love about this bet is that its damn near a guaranteed win if it goes into the 55-65 range and HOLDS.....
...All of you who bet against Akira are ****ed...
That is kind of the point of the bet. Those of us who bet against Akita believe believed that insurance prices aren't the sole determining factor in mineral prices and that as prices get lower supply will drop. I still don't think that dropping below 55m is a guarantee. Betting that mineral prices would go up would have been a little silly but this is really a bet of whether they'll drop below 55m by August 1 and that, at least in my possibly naive opinion, is not a sure thing.
There is a little emotion involved as well, I must admit. I trained a bunch of alts with 10m+ SP in mining only to watch mineral prices fall and fall, then retrained them to be L5 mission runners only to see that modified before I was even ready, so part of me keeps saying that surely CCP in a patch designed to help stabilize the mining profession would have some knowledge we don't and know that mineral prices won't possibly drop as low as 55m/raven by August.
I suppose that faith in CCP is what guarantees I will lose :) I'm only in for 500m and it is keeping me interested and learning more about the market.
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Cigney
What I love about this bet is that its damn near a guaranteed win
I know, right ? That's exactly what I was telling them !
Well, I'm listening NOW :)
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Andrea Griffin
|
Posted - 2010.06.03 21:45:00 -
[131]
Originally by: Cigney
All of you who bet against Akira are ****ed.
Isn't this always the case though? Akita should have been hired as Eve's economist. He's consistently the most insightful and knowledgeable person I have seen in MD.
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Charles37
|
Posted - 2010.06.04 01:18:00 -
[132]
Originally by: Tiruriku
Edited by: Tiruriku on 03/06/2010 21:44:23
Originally by: Cigney
What I love about this bet is that its damn near a guaranteed win if it goes into the 55-65 range and HOLDS.....
...All of you who bet against Akira are ****ed...
That is kind of the point of the bet. Those of us who bet against Akita believe believed that insurance prices aren't the sole determining factor in mineral prices and that as prices get lower supply will drop.
Speak for yourself; I put up my money to get the ball rolling/goad others into doing it and as a form of entertainment. I have no expectation of getting my money back, nor did I when I placed my bet. While insurance prices might not be the *only* determining factor in the price of the basket, I sure as hell believe it's the most important factor by a long shot, which is why I sold off all of my bulk minerals reserves from reprocessed loot about two weeks before patch day.
And I mean hey, if by some freak accident I do end up getting my money back and then some from AkitaT, then I'm certainly not going to complain.
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.06.04 03:48:00 -
[133]
Edited by: Tiruriku on 04/06/2010 03:50:50
Originally by: Charles37
Speak for yourself
My apologies Charles. My opinion is of course my own, I'll edit the post.
What I meant to say is that many of the people, while of course not all, who felt that there would not be a significant crash seemed to believe that the effects of insurance were overestimated in this situation, and that was the basis for an argument against a crash.
I don't believe anybody betting in this thread was actually betting that mineral prices were going to go up, only that they were either not going to drop below 55m in the time frame allotted or, in your case and Uppsy Daisy's for example, just to get things going and have some fun. There are people who seriously believed prices were going to go 'WAY up', and I didn't want to get included with that group as I only believed they wouldn't drop below 55m.
The point I was trying to make, in an attempt to save face I suppose, was that there were enough proposed changes (reduced mission mineral drops, drone reprocessing, etc) that, without knowing the sheer number of insured & destroyed ships, it was plausible to believe that prices would not drop ~23% in 2 months; the drop in supply would be equal to or similar to the demand reduction from insurance. Alternatively, prices would fall somewhat and even more miners would stop mining, reducing supply to equilibrium.
That of course appears to be a mistake; however, what was predicted to be a near overnight 23% drop has been a relatively slow 4.5% decline so, while still downward, has been less drastic than expected. I was becoming slightly frustrated at how frequently it was pointed out how obvious this outcome would be and felt the need to rationalize my analysis, even if the conclusion is incorrect.
Welcome to MD, I suppose 
Once again, my apologies for implying I was trying to represent your views.
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Dariah Stardweller
Gallente
Gung-Ho
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Posted - 2010.06.04 18:29:00 -
[134]
Originally by: Akita T
Rumourmill has it that (hang on to your shorts) the whole process is manually triggered by CCP at whatever moment they deem "right" or "needed".
It was second hand info by the time I heard it, so it might be wrong, but considering CCP's track record, I wouldn't be very surprised if it turns out to be true.
*shivers
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.04 23:37:00 -
[135]
17.05.2010 : 71,383,363 ISK (2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74)
29.05.2010 : 70,056,585 ISK (2.71/5.73/27.94/52.24/117.20/1,299.84/2,912.48)
03.06.2010 : 68,287,827 ISK (2.72/5.74/25.57/49.48/122.86/1,236.37/2,854.45)
04.06.2010 : 68,067,904 ISK (2.71/5.75/25.41/49.22/125.49/1,228.40/2,819.89)
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Liang Nuren
Parsec Flux
War.Pigs.
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Posted - 2010.06.08 22:33:00 -
[136]
I actually came hunting this thread down to ask why none of the minerals had gone down in price... but if trit is being held steady by the broken items, why aren't the other minerals falling even faster?
-Liang
--
Liang Nuren - Eve Forum ***** Extraordinaire |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.09 07:54:00 -
[137]
Originally by: Liang Nuren
I actually came hunting this thread down to ask why none of the minerals had gone down in price... but if trit is being held steady by the broken items, why aren't the other minerals falling even faster?
Enough forewarning plus inertia equals prolonged bumpy ride
Either ship prices need to fall down first for mineral prices to follow (most likely what will de eventually what drives prices down, but it's not happening yet, ship volumes dropped), or miners have to really start undercutting eachother as manufacturers start to refrain from manufacturing ; for ship prices to fall down people need to manufacture more ships than needed to start undercutting eachother significantly, which means miners won't need to undercut eachother too agressively. Overall, it will be a combination of both, with each party reluctant to shift prices... most manufacturers won't want to sell below what it cost them so they won't purchase a lot of materials in advance and sell only short batches, miners won't be too much in a hurry to sell leftover stockpiles at lowest prices, and so on and so forth, leading to short-term price increases as everybody is catching their breath.
Eventually, the trend resumes and it's going back down, then another stop, and another drop, and so on until a rough equilibrium is acheived.
I did expect all of this to go a bit faster, but I'm not too surprises it's "bidding its time".
Heck, for the past 3 days, prices have been slightly going upwards, and it probably won't be until tomorrow or the day after that they'll restart their plunge, stopping or going a tad bit up again by Sunday or Monday.
Pretty normal weekly cycles.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.06.09 10:51:00 -
[138]
Prices have turned the corner and will be rocketing upwards from now on.
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Ex Industrialist
|
Posted - 2010.06.09 14:15:00 -
[139]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Prices have turned the corner and will be rocketing upwards from now on.
LOl I wish. If that happens everyone I know with stockpiles of refinables will be refine and sell 'em, instead of waiting to see what happens next.
One factor you may have overlooked is people who blew up their insured ships, incl cap ships, for the insurance pre patch who are now in the market for replacements. Should keep demand up for a time.
I'm also forced to wonder if CCP actually looked at what was being refined, instead of guessing. I figured they just guessed at which modules were being refined based on mineral composition, what if they did something sophisticated and got a weekly snapshot of exactly what was reprocessed into minerals? That could have much more of an impact on mineral supply and prices than a generic "nerf BS drops"
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.09 15:22:00 -
[140]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
Prices have turned the corner and will be rocketing upwards from now on.
That's the spirit ! Hope dies last and stuff !
Just don't check back during the weekend, we wouldn't want morale down until Monday
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Charles37
|
Posted - 2010.06.11 21:12:00 -
[141]
I'm pretty surprised so far; I expected to have lost handily by this point in time, but it looks like I may end up having an unexpected infusion of cash come the first of July.
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Diomedes Calypso
|
Posted - 2010.06.11 21:57:00 -
[142]
looks like they're finally starting to crack today
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Uppsy Daisy
|
Posted - 2010.06.11 22:45:00 -
[143]
Edited by: Uppsy Daisy on 11/06/2010 22:44:49
Confirming it's just an illusion.
Hope springs eternal
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
|
Posted - 2010.06.11 23:35:00 -
[144]
It's been a busy few weeks- I've moved about a quarter of a trillion isk worth of minerals since the start of May. I suspect quite a lot of people are suddenly finding supercaps are just about affordable
---
34.4:1 mineral compression |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 01:54:00 -
[145]
Edited by: Akita T on 12/06/2010 01:58:16
_
People who thought it would be an overnight price adjustment haven't dealt with the market much
It was pretty obvious the price trajectory would be "lumpy", but on a downwards trend nevertheless
This stopped being a thread about whether or not prices would drop not long into the thread's life (since everybody with some ounce of brains decided they would eventually go down), and it became a "how long will it take prices to fall down to certain levels" bet instead.
It's more interesting this way anyway
Originally by: Charles37
I'm pretty surprised so far; I expected to have lost handily by this point in time, but it looks like I may end up having an unexpected infusion of cash come the first of July.
It only needs to fall ~2.3 mil more in the next ~3 weeks (it already fell ~4 mil in the first ~2 weeks) for it to go into up to 1-month overtime
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Diomedes Calypso
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 03:23:00 -
[146]
I'm seeing tritaneum at an bid ask of 2.43/2.51 in Jita with a The Forge average of 2.42 in the last few hours...
thats a pretty big move isn't it?
The raven is definitely begging to crack.. below the previous IER floor with market makers only willing to buy about 15 total above 65 million... with a 100 for sale in recent orders below 70 million... ..
Just watching it... enjoying to see what paths markets follow in their moves.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 04:11:00 -
[147]
Yeah, the value displayed as "regional average" is already reasonably-long-time-averaged and I suspect outlier-trimmed, so it takes a while for it to adjust to current transaction value.
I chose that as yardstick because it's not very easily manipulable for a long time (long enough to matter for this bet, I mean), and doesn't jerk around up and down too fast either (so it's easier to visualize).
By the end of today (Saturday) we should see the next big drop, and by tomorrow evening (Sunday) it should level off to some degree, only to take another plunge next weekend. Pretty normal, actually. Heh.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Afra Raven
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 06:53:00 -
[148]
I could be wrong but there is another string that could make the Minerals price fall even harder. Look at the Volume and prices of Large Meta 1+ Weapons, prices fall hard and are close to the refined Mineral worth.
Give it one or two more weeks and most Missionrunners will start to reprocess Meta 1-3 items causing more Minerals in the market. Although those Meta Items give less Minerals the sheer Volume will kill the market.
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raukosen
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 15:55:00 -
[149]
Originally by: Akita T
Either ship prices need to fall down first for mineral prices to follow
Ship prices are dropping a lot ffs!
At least BSes
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Capita List
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 16:32:00 -
[150]
Ship prices are actually still relatively high compared to where the minerals are dropping now. Ofcourse if you follow some retarted web listing rather than your own data, you might think those minerals are still afloat. lol
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Slavemaster
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 16:54:00 -
[151]
"Black Saturday" In the lords year....
Man, I am dumping all my minerals and now at a loss for some. Minerals are down 15% +- Just today.
Not gonna jump out of the Window yet thou ^^
I bet this is just the start, its gonna gonna be even worse.
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Malcanis
Caldari
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 18:47:00 -
[152]
15%? Jeez
Is now a good time to buy cheap carriers?
Malcanis' Law: Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of "new players", that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players. |
Diomedes Calypso
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 19:40:00 -
[153]
Edited by: Diomedes Calypso on 12/06/2010 19:45:04
I'm wondering if I should pull my standing order for a charon freighter... made some money day trading those in the FUD in the weeks before actual roll out of Tyranis.
Lowered it to 625 two weeks ago but I guess the pos-refining thing kep the cargohold components up.
Lowered it to 525 today but I'm worried..Might just drop it a bit more (only have it out there because I sold the carrier I actually use and it is sort of convenient to have one... although the orca does fine unless you're going to carry dozens of ships.. and this kind of price turmoil makes holding any inventory require quite a upside for the risk.
(that risk perception is what has been tightening ship supplies hence prices for the last 3 weeks up to yesterday... but if drakes start costing 12 million a pop to make.. people are going to start stamping some out.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2010.06.12 20:05:00 -
[154]
Originally by: Malcanis
15%? Jeez
Is now a good time to buy cheap carriers?
well if you're going to use it tomorrow, as a warrior its always a good day to die in valor!
but if you're talking about saving a few isk,
This isn't a blip down.. it is due (most agree..with exceptions of course) to the elimination of the eliminated unlimited right to sell ore (via ships) to NPCs by a tactic some reffered to as insurance fraud (I personally don't think the word insurance applies to what they call insurance...so neither does the word fraud). Thats now reffered to in short hand as IER (i forget what that was an accronym for)
Ships traded at that NPC guarnteed floor.. which in turn set a floor to a "basket of minerals" needed to produce the ships.
There was some tiny hope that the reduction of mission refined loot would make up for the ore used in intentionally destroyed ship.. or perhaps that miners would turn their time to PI etc.
But its been my opinion that the practices of IER were accelerating so that a temporary matching of supply reductions wouldn't stem the increasing flows of ore through large scale mining operations with single people controlling many accounts...and perhaps with some of that the word 'macroing" would apply. A massive crack-down on that activity could send prices up sharply...but my gut tells me that most of that mining isn't done by people in the RMT but by real players skirting the edges of what is and isn't a macro...who could alter their habbits slightly to comply if needed.
At some point...ore prices get so low even the numbers of those people will start to drop off and people will start blowing up bigger ships using more ore.. the bc the new cruiser.. the bs the new bc.. the carrier the new bs? 300 million isk carriers would mean a lot more ore consumtion...there will be some bottom to ore prices.. probably a bit higher than that.
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 20:57:00 -
[155]
Edited by: Akita T on 12/06/2010 21:05:50
___
Notes:
* dates are approximate, orientative - prices mentioned for a specific day (server-time-wise) could be from late afternoon, late night, or even a couple of hours past server midnight for the previous day
* prices mentioned (unless otherwise specified) are number displayed as "regional average" on the advanced buy order screen
~17.05.2010 : 71,383,363 ISK (2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74) - Monday, more than a week before patch
~29.05.2010 : 70,056,585 ISK (2.71/5.73/27.94/52.24/117.20/1,299.84/2,912.48) - Saturday, couple of days after patch
~03.06.2010 : 68,287,827 ISK (2.72/5.74/25.57/49.48/122.86/1,236.37/2,854.45) - Thursday, approx. a week after patch
~04.06.2010 : 68,067,904 ISK (2.71/5.75/25.41/49.22/125.49/1,228.40/2,819.89) - Friday
~05.06.2010 : 67,671,382 ISK (2.69/5.77/25.12/48.89/127.28/1,215.21/2,790.63) - Saturday
~06.06.2010 : 67,682,845 ISK (2.69/5.77/25.21/48.89/129.05/1,213.64/2,758.44) - Sunday
~07.06.2010 : 67,727,332 ISK (2.69/5.75/25.34/48.90/128.06/1,219.28/2,762.42) - Monday
~08.06.2010 : 67,870,319 ISK (2.69/5.76/25.60/48.95/128.26/1,223.30/2,744.85) - Tuesday
~09.06.2010 : 67,870,563 ISK (2.69/5.75/25.78/48.75/127.71/1,223.04/2,734.01) - Wednesday, officially 2 weeks post patch
~10.06.2010 : 67,660,797 ISK (2.68/5.70/25.78/48.95/126.41/1,220.54/2,730.98) - Thursday
~11.06.2010 : 67,313,466 ISK (2.66/5.68/25.68/48.95/125.53/1,216.67/2,705.67) - Friday
~12.06.2010 : 66,372,293 ISK (2.60/5.59/25.54/48.83/124.27/1,198.96/2,673.29) - Saturday
~12.06.2010 : 63,462,016 ISK (2.38/5.39/25.22/48.29/123.61/1,140.99/2,575.89) - Saturday evening Jita Sell order prices
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.06.12 21:31:00 -
[156]
lucky for some people that modules have began restoring their original price and minerals won't fall as fast as rock. still the trend will only be slowed a bit nothing else
knowledge is power |
Samroski
|
Posted - 2010.06.13 02:54:00 -
[157]
Originally by: Akita T
~12.06.2010 : 63,462,016 ISK (2.38/5.39/25.22/48.29/123.61/1,140.99/2,575.89)
Seeing the poor anti-akita response just before the betting deadline, I seriously thought of wagering more, just to make things more interesting. Glad I did not log on till it was too late :)
|
Celia Therone
|
Posted - 2010.06.13 03:32:00 -
[158]
Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the insurance fraud basket price is now?
|
Alice Celadon
|
Posted - 2010.06.13 04:57:00 -
[159]
49,563,243
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Diomedes Calypso
|
Posted - 2010.06.13 06:29:00 -
[160]
Gee, I realized that they had downgraded the insurance payout to a bakset of materials trailing cost (or I thought it was a trailing cost?).. but I looked up the drake and platinum insurance would pay out 24.46 and cost you 7.34 (net payout of 17 and change.
Thats the floor on the drake for now..not sure how often they are adjusting that pay out.. I was under the impression that they'd announce a schedual of updates or something.
|
Malcanis
Caldari
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
|
Posted - 2010.06.13 13:31:00 -
[161]
Originally by: Diomedes Calypso
Originally by: Malcanis
15%? Jeez
Is now a good time to buy cheap carriers?
well if you're going to use it tomorrow, as a warrior its always a good day to die in valor!
but if you're talking about saving a few isk,
This isn't a blip down.. it is due (most agree..with exceptions of course) to the elimination of the eliminated unlimited right to sell ore (via ships) to NPCs by a tactic some reffered to as insurance fraud (I personally don't think the word insurance applies to what they call insurance...so neither does the word fraud). Thats now reffered to in short hand as IER (i forget what that was an accronym for)
Ships traded at that NPC guarnteed floor.. which in turn set a floor to a "basket of minerals" needed to produce the ships.
There was some tiny hope that the reduction of mission refined loot would make up for the ore used in intentionally destroyed ship.. or perhaps that miners would turn their time to PI etc.
But its been my opinion that the practices of IER were accelerating so that a temporary matching of supply reductions wouldn't stem the increasing flows of ore through large scale mining operations with single people controlling many accounts...and perhaps with some of that the word 'macroing" would apply. A massive crack-down on that activity could send prices up sharply...but my gut tells me that most of that mining isn't done by people in the RMT but by real players skirting the edges of what is and isn't a macro...who could alter their habbits slightly to comply if needed.
At some point...ore prices get so low even the numbers of those people will start to drop off and people will start blowing up bigger ships using more ore.. the bc the new cruiser.. the bs the new bc.. the carrier the new bs? 300 million isk carriers would mean a lot more ore consumtion...there will be some bottom to ore prices.. probably a bit higher than that.
I dont need it to fight tomorrow. I'm buying a Nyx on the installment plan, as it were. If carriers are going to keep falling in price, I'll keep my ISK for now.
Malcanis' Law: Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of "new players", that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players. |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.13 23:34:00 -
[162]
Another half a mil lower for the average, and it's below the 65 mil "overtime" threshold already.
Heck, at this rate, if the current Jita sell order prices are a good indication of where the whole thing will settle in a few days (until next weekend's crash), it might even hit the "win" 55 mil level before the first deadline.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
stoicfaux
|
Posted - 2010.06.14 15:24:00 -
[163]
Originally by: Diomedes Calypso
Thats now reffered to in short hand as IER (i forget what that was an accronym for)
IER == Insurance Exchange Rate
-----
"Are you a sociopathic paranoid schizophrenic with accounting skills? We have the game for you!
-- Eve, the game of Alts, Economics, Machiavelli, and PvP"
|
Krathos Morpheus
Legion Infernal
|
Posted - 2010.06.14 17:07:00 -
[164]
Originally by: stoicfaux
Originally by: Diomedes Calypso
Thats now reffered to in short hand as IER (i forget what that was an accronym for)
IER == Insurance Exchange Rate
It is more commonly known as Insurance Fraud. It even appeared in official documents with this name (last QEN). And just in case anyone wants to argument about this not being fraud, it was not insurance in the first place, but subvention.
EVEwatch Sidebar soon
"It is the unofficial force ù the Jita irregulars. " |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2010.06.14 17:16:00 -
[165]
I wonder when (and if) CCP one day will suddenly wake up and discover they are marketing a "strong player based economy" game where in reality economy is exclusively driven by NPC artificial support price.
One year, they might start thinking that *maybe* adding those 4-5 massive mineral faucets in the last years was not the brightest idea ever, expecially when they did not add corresponding mineral sinks.
-
Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
Malcanis
Caldari
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
|
Posted - 2010.06.14 18:14:00 -
[166]
I am genuinely baffled that they did not use player created POS/POS mods as a mineral sink
Why, CCP, why?
Malcanis' Law: Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of "new players", that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players. |
Aurum Bellator
|
Posted - 2010.06.14 19:01:00 -
[167]
Originally by: Diomedes Calypso
Gee, I realized that they had downgraded the insurance payout to a bakset of materials trailing cost (or I thought it was a trailing cost?).. but I looked up the drake and platinum insurance would pay out 24.46 and cost you 7.34 (net payout of 17 and change.
Thats the floor on the drake for now..not sure how often they are adjusting that pay out.. I was under the impression that they'd announce a schedual of updates or something.
The insurance payout should now consistently be the isk value of the mineral cost of the ship, not factoring the premium paid up front. That means insurance will really be insurance - you won't ever be able to profit from insuring and blowing up ships because even though you get the full ship price back, you lose the premium.
I'm just glad my thread on the whole mineral price thing disappeared  it seems that I was wrong about prices going up lol
AUB
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.14 23:55:00 -
[168]
___
We're now officially in "overtime" as worst-case-for-me scenario
___
Notes:
* dates are approximate, orientative - prices mentioned for a specific day (server-time-wise) could be from late afternoon, late night, or even a couple of hours past server midnight for the previous day
* prices mentioned (unless otherwise specified) are number displayed as "regional average" on the advanced order screen
~17.05.2010 : 71,383,363 ISK (2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74) - Monday, more than a week before patch
~29.05.2010 : 70,056,585 ISK (2.71/5.73/27.94/52.24/117.20/1,299.84/2,912.48) - Saturday, couple of days after patch
~03.06.2010 : 68,287,827 ISK (2.72/5.74/25.57/49.48/122.86/1,236.37/2,854.45) - Thursday, approx. a week after patch
~04.06.2010 : 68,067,904 ISK (2.71/5.75/25.41/49.22/125.49/1,228.40/2,819.89) - Friday
~05.06.2010 : 67,671,382 ISK (2.69/5.77/25.12/48.89/127.28/1,215.21/2,790.63) - Saturday
~06.06.2010 : 67,682,845 ISK (2.69/5.77/25.21/48.89/129.05/1,213.64/2,758.44) - Sunday
~07.06.2010 : 67,727,332 ISK (2.69/5.75/25.34/48.90/128.06/1,219.28/2,762.42) - Monday
~08.06.2010 : 67,870,319 ISK (2.69/5.76/25.60/48.95/128.26/1,223.30/2,744.85) - Tuesday
~09.06.2010 : 67,870,563 ISK (2.69/5.75/25.78/48.75/127.71/1,223.04/2,734.01) - Wednesday, officially 2 weeks post patch
~10.06.2010 : 67,660,797 ISK (2.68/5.70/25.78/48.95/126.41/1,220.54/2,730.98) - Thursday
~11.06.2010 : 67,313,466 ISK (2.66/5.68/25.68/48.95/125.53/1,216.67/2,705.67) - Friday
~12.06.2010 : 66,372,293 ISK (2.60/5.59/25.54/48.83/124.27/1,198.96/2,673.29) - Saturday
~13.06.2010 : 65,483,419 ISK (2.54/5.53/25.44/48.73/123.66/1,177.88/2,631.44) - Sunday
~14.06.2010 : 64,621,095 ISK (2.50/5.44/25.29/48.65/122.65/1,159.98/2,564.12) - Monday
Separate from that system-generated regional average, the "trend indicator" data, Jita sell order prices :
~12.06.2010 : 63,462,016 ISK (2.38/5.39/25.22/48.29/123.61/1,140.99/2,575.89) - Saturday evening Jita SELL
~13.06.2010 : 62,825,902 ISK (2.40/5.22/25.26/48.64/122.38/1,108.00/2,462.00) - Sunday evening Jita SELL
~14.06.2010 : 62,713,011 ISK (2.39/5.23/25.44/48.36/120.23/1,109.99/2,435.94) - Monday evening Jita SELL
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2010.06.15 00:48:00 -
[169]
So anyone who followed general MD advice to liquidate ALL T1 ships and mods and is waiting to buy it back at a later date is laughing all the way to the bank.
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Verite Rendition
Caldari
F.R.E.E. Explorer
Initiative Mercenaries
|
Posted - 2010.06.15 10:46:00 -
[170]
This is a bit off-topic, but have you been keeping any records of T2/T3 prices Akita? Clearly the T1 market is deflating, but I'm curious what the ramifications are on T2 and T3 given that they have some - but very little - exposure to the T1 market.
----
FREE Explorer
Lead Megalomanic
EVE Null-Sec Player Influence Map
http://dl1.eve-files.com/media/corp/Veritefw/FWinf |
Andrea Griffin
|
Posted - 2010.06.15 14:34:00 -
[171]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
I wonder when (and if) CCP one day will suddenly wake up and discover they are marketing a "strong player based economy" game where in reality economy is exclusively driven by NPC artificial support price.
I wonder just how cheap these ships will become. Would I soon be able to buy a raven for 10 million isk? What about a Drake? How cheap will the frigates become? Eve has always had the capability to PvP on the cheap but this is getting silly (if potentially entertaining). Pretty soon we won't need insurance and maybe it can be removed entirely from the equation. Maybe this is what CCP is going for in the end? Lots of questions.
I'm thinking that it might be wise to just sell all my minerals now and buy them all back later.
All you people who bet against Akita... Shame on you.
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stoicfaux
|
Posted - 2010.06.15 15:13:00 -
[172]
Edited by: stoicfaux on 15/06/2010 15:13:28
Originally by: Andrea Griffin
I wonder just how cheap these ships will become. Would I soon be able to buy a raven for 10 million isk? What about a Drake? How cheap will the frigates become? Eve has always had the capability to PvP on the cheap but this is getting silly (if potentially entertaining).
If prices drop to ridiculous levels due to the NPC market being removed, where is the isk to buy things going to come from? Every transaction is taxed which means isk is being permanently removed from the economy. Aside from missioning and ratting, how is the isk to buy things being created?
I guess I'm asking: how big of an isk faucet do the NPC buy orders represent? And will shutting off the NPC market faucet cause the money supply to become tight? And since I'm not an economist, what happens when a money supply becomes tight?
-----
"Are you a sociopathic paranoid schizophrenic with accounting skills? We have the game for you!
-- Eve, the game of Alts, Economics, Machiavelli, and PvP"
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.15 16:08:00 -
[173]
Edited by: Akita T on 15/06/2010 16:09:22
Originally by: stoicfaux
If prices drop to ridiculous levels due to the NPC market being removed, where is the isk to buy things going to come from? Every transaction is taxed which means isk is being permanently removed from the economy. Aside from missioning and ratting, how is the isk to buy things being created?
I guess I'm asking: how big of an isk faucet do the NPC buy orders represent? And will shutting off the NPC market faucet cause the money supply to become tight? And since I'm not an economist, what happens when a money supply becomes tight?
Whoa there sparky, are you sure you're in the correct thread ? We're talking MINERALS here, stuff T1 ships and items get built from. Those stopped having NPC buy orders quite a good while ago.
Also, insurance will almost certainly always exist, and will always give out some ISK - the only goal was to make it NOT give out a comparable amount to the value of what was lost, but instead noticeably less.
And last but not least, the greatest ISK sources in the game are first and foremost NPC bounties from mission-running and ratting, so even if the amount of ISK streaming in from the insurance side gets a bit tighter, I seriously doubt you'll see any noticeable differences any time soon.
Originally by: Andrea Griffin
I wonder just how cheap these ships will become. Would I soon be able to buy a raven for 10 million isk? What about a Drake? How cheap will the frigates become? Eve has always had the capability to PvP on the cheap but this is getting silly (if potentially entertaining).
It might be getting cheaper to buy a brand new ship you never owned before...
...but it will be MORE EXPENSIVE TO LOSE IT
Yeah, that sounds counter-intuitive, but that's basically what will happen if insurance payouts will keep getting adjusted at least every now and then.
Originally by: Verite Rendition
This is a bit off-topic, but have you been keeping any records of T2/T3 prices Akita? Clearly the T1 market is deflating, but I'm curious what the ramifications are on T2 and T3 given that they have some - but very little - exposure to the T1 market.
Initially I wasn't even going to keep a record of the T1 market either, since "Raven Jita Sell Price" would have been a good enough approximate indicator too (if manufacture profit would go too high per unit, the need would get quite easily filled, so Raven Jita sell prices should be trailing behind mineral sell prices a bit time-wise, and be a more or less stable amount over the "Raven mineral basket" price). I only started keeping closer tabs on the minerals when people were going "hurr, hurr, slowdown of crash, hurr".
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Clurk Brodon
Yog-Sothoth Heavy Industries
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Posted - 2010.06.15 22:59:00 -
[174]
With T1 and meta items getting cheaper, we may see a drop in T2 demand.
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Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics
K162
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Posted - 2010.06.15 23:13:00 -
[175]
Edited by: Vilgan Mazran on 15/06/2010 23:13:06
Originally by: Verite Rendition
This is a bit off-topic, but have you been keeping any records of T2/T3 prices Akita? Clearly the T1 market is deflating, but I'm curious what the ramifications are on T2 and T3 given that they have some - but very little - exposure to the T1 market.
T3 prices are up a bit due to increased demand from the indirect marauder nerf. However, after demand increased, the nanoribbons/relics started rising as well negating most of the manufacturing profit. Main winner from the slight increase are those actually running sleeper sites, not the people making the T3 ships.
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Reiisha
Evolution
IT Alliance
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Posted - 2010.06.16 04:52:00 -
[176]
Indulge me, as a newbie to economy...
I've been following the thread for a while and while i understand the basics i'm wondering about a few things.
First, what exactly is the cause of the price drop? Minerals are not in unlimited supply as far as i understand - At least not as far as time is concerned. Given that ISK is (according to a QEN though) is flowing out just as much as it is flowing in, this means there *should* be a bottom to the prices.
Would a decrease of mining yield increase the prices? Longer spawn times?
Isn't it also a case that some people are trying to unload their mountains of minerals before they get worthless - or so they think, so the market has a temporary oversupply? The way i see it, it's possible that some ISK sellers have been gambling on certain development or just haven't put their stuff on the market fast enough, and now want to get rid of their stacks, creating the exact problem we're having now.
What if insurance only covered ~75% at platinum? Or 50, or only basic? Or why not simply not pay out insurance when the ship is self-destructed or shot by concord/navy? That last measure would make a lot of sense if you ask me.
"If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all"
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Sonk
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Posted - 2010.06.16 06:41:00 -
[177]
Minerals are in infinite supply in every practical way. There are so much asteroid belts that replenish every day that at the moment, even if every soul in EVE got into a hulk, there will never be a true scarcity of <insert ore> rocks floating in space. In essence, if you want <insert mineral> you can undock the hulk and go get it.
Also, minerals come from reprocessed loot and drones, they've been nerfed but it's still a supply that is truly infinite.
Moongoo (and thus T2) is a wholly different story, these mats come from moons, of which there are a definite quantity and no more. Add to this that the good moons are in sovereign space under the firm control of large alliances and the supply becomes very finite. If you want more <insert good/bottleneck> moongoo you're **** out of luck, there is no respawning/infinite supply of moons.
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Shaalira D'arc
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Posted - 2010.06.16 08:08:00 -
[178]
Hulkageddon III
Will it have a significant impact on the mineral basket?
Will it arrive in time to change the outcome of the bet? ("like 2 months tops" according to Helicity)
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Dariah Stardweller
Gallente
Gung-Ho
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Posted - 2010.06.16 10:50:00 -
[179]
Originally by: Akita T
It might be getting cheaper to buy a brand new ship you never owned before...
...but it will be MORE EXPENSIVE TO LOSE IT
Yeah, that sounds counter-intuitive, but that's basically what will happen if insurance payouts will keep getting adjusted at least every now and then.
Knowing CCP I suspect it will be a long, loooooong time till the next adjustment, if ever.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.16 11:14:00 -
[180]
Edited by: Akita T on 16/06/2010 11:15:52
Originally by: Dariah Stardweller
Originally by: Akita T
It might be getting cheaper to buy a brand new ship you never owned before but it will be MORE EXPENSIVE TO LOSE IT. Yeah, that sounds counter-intuitive, but that's basically what will happen if insurance payouts will keep getting adjusted at least every now and then.
Knowing CCP I suspect it will be a long, loooooong time till the next adjustment, if ever.
I suspect you are correct
Rumourmill tells that the insurance adjustment is a manually CCP triggered autocalculation process, not an automatic one.
Originally by: Reiisha
First, what exactly is the cause of the price drop? Minerals are not in unlimited supply as far as i understand - At least not as far as time is concerned. Given that ISK is (according to a QEN though) is flowing out just as much as it is flowing in, this means there *should* be a bottom to the prices.
Let me answer that with a quote from a completely different type of thread...
Originally by: Cathy Drall
When Tyrannis was released, CCP had changed some things that would need the bot/marco users to adjust their scripts. What I noticed is that the belts where I usually mine were (as good as) EMPTY. Even before the next DT hardly any asteroids were touched.
Four or five days later they started to reappear and now it's the same as always, all the belts are stripped bare in a matter of a hours.
The lowest opportunity cost considered acceptable by macro users is astonishingly low, so while there is a bottom to the prices of minerals (in form of bottom income miners are still willing to work for), it's sadly pretty damn low.
Quote:
Would a decrease of mining yield increase the prices? Longer spawn times?
The meta-loot nerf did decrease supply of minerals a bit, however the insurance adjustment also DECREASED demand for minerals by an even larger factor.
Anything that would decrease supply or increase demand for minerals will result in an increase in mineral prices and therefore increased miner revenue.
Quote:
Isn't it also a case that some people are trying to unload their mountains of minerals before they get worthless - or so they think, so the market has a temporary oversupply?
Prices never evolve overnight unless something radical happened (and the changes so far were not radical enough for that). It's possible that slight oversupply from people that dump falling stock is happening, however, there's no basis in believing the point where things will settle for will be above the current level... in fact, it looks like minerals will still be falling quite a bit more in the future, so if there is still anybody holding onto stocks, he'll get burned.
Quote:
What if insurance only covered ~75% at platinum? Or 50, or only basic?
Well, platinum already only covers 70% after you take into account the premium you have to pay. Basic insurance (no premium) covers 40%.
Or do you mean 75%-30=35% coverage ? That's already below the basic value now !
Then you have an even faster fall in mineral prices, that's all.
Quote:
Or why not simply not pay out insurance when the ship is self-destructed or shot by concord/navy? That last measure would make a lot of sense if you ask me.
It might make some sense gameplay-wise, but it does not help much for the purpose of stabilizing mineral prices, it actually has the exact opposite effect.
By not paying out insurance you're indireactly ending up decreasing mineral demand (as more people try to avoid that situation), while at the same time, people that want to "exploit" the insurance would only have to, say, get a few friends in Amarr boats in a friendly corp to wardec his corp, and have them keep blowing up his ships. Or maybe just use a POS, so you don't have to take up people's time.
You might as well remove insurance from any PvP activity whatsoever in that case, and that's also quite bad for mineral prices.
It's a no-win situation
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.16 12:12:00 -
[181]
Originally by: Shaalira D'arc
Hulkageddon III
Will it have a significant impact on the mineral basket?
Will it arrive in time to change the outcome of the bet? ("like 2 months tops" according to Helicity)
Unless an overwhelmingly high number of kills are made in 0.0/w-space, it won't matter much.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
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Posted - 2010.06.16 12:19:00 -
[182]
Originally by: Akita T
The lowest opportunity cost considered acceptable by macro users is astonishingly low, so while there is a bottom to the prices of minerals (in form of bottom income miners are still willing to work for), it's sadly pretty damn low.
Spot on. Assuming a high sec macro previously earned around 10m/hour that's about 230Million a day, 6.9 Billion a month more than enough to cover a plex costs of 300m. So a macro remains profitable as long at it earns >500k an hour. 1/20th of the current income.
If macro miners are the predominant cause of excess mineral supply the price floor is going to be shockingly low. Classic Gresham's law.
AIH my reason for taking the bet was the mineral requirements for capital construction parts for player built POS, which I expected to prop up the market long enough to win the bet.
The agonisingly slow delay in the removal of NPC POS seems to have burnt any chance of collecting.
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Agente
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Posted - 2010.06.16 12:20:00 -
[183]
The real problem here is the same that in real economy between developed economies and developing economies. If you are in Europe or America and pretend to compete with China in cost, you have already lost. And it is completelly independent of what we or CCP can do. The only reason for them to stop mining as much as possible is if the isk/hour---->dollar/hour falls under the real world cost so they stop farming.
Tldr: They will mine as much as possible while they still earn money, so prices will fall down.
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Cigney
Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2010.06.16 13:23:00 -
[184]
Originally by: Akita T
By not paying out insurance you're indireactly ending up decreasing mineral demand (as more people try to avoid that situation), while at the same time, people that want to "exploit" the insurance would only have to, say, get a few friends in Amarr boats in a friendly corp to wardec his corp, and have them keep blowing up his ships. Or maybe just use a POS, so you don't have to take up people's time.
One guy I know who was doing this had alts in competing FW corps and would get some LP by blowing up each other's ships.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.16 19:43:00 -
[185]
Late bet of 100m against me Linkage accepted directly (no 3rd party), this is to confirm receipt.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.17 23:55:00 -
[186]
Ouch, they keep on falling rapidly and it's not even the weekend yet
I might just actually win by the first deadline
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Tekota
legion industries ltd
Veni Vidi Vici Alliance
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Posted - 2010.06.20 10:00:00 -
[187]
Just out of curiosity, ran figures for this morning, unless I've got maths wrong (a possibility my wallet regularly atests to) are we possibly seeing a levelling out, or at least a slowing in the trend?
~20.06.2010 : 62,561,774 ISK (2.46/5.14/25.16/48.75/115.05/1,082.10/2,403.00) - Sunday (09:40 game time)
(prices taken from regional average on advanced order screen).
Note that at the time taken Isogen was subject to what could be a mini manipulation with cheapest Jita sell order at 53.85 (looks like someone spiked the graph, I'm guessing folks with unfiltered donchian & min/max see that as a sign of an upward trend).
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.20 19:17:00 -
[188]
The highends are not really recovering, just taking a break, and it's just the midends (the lowends a bit too) having a hickup, for now. How much of it is manipulation, and how much is actually miners getting too annoyed to mine, or some other reason, we just have to wait and see.
Short term, a lot of weird stuff can happen, and an up spike lasting a couple of days or even three while on a downwards slipping slope is nothing too unusual.
You just have to be patient and look at the longer duration trends as they happen.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.22 04:49:00 -
[189]
Edited by: Akita T on 22/06/2010 04:53:06
Hmm... if you look at all of it carefully, it almost looks like somebody's been desperately trying to prop up Megacyte in Jita for the past 4 days or so (most heavily the past two days), because orders there are consistently going up, while the regional average keeps slipping down.
In fact, same thing seems to be happening with most minerals, but it's most suspicious (or, you could say, even obvious) for Megacyte.
Tritanium and Mexallon might actually be going up due to natural causes.
Similar to yesterday, Jita buy/sell split is still quite big for minerals (and both noticeably above Forge), with 67,441,613 Jita sell and 65,138,194 Jita buy, while Forge average was 63,066,656.
This snapshot for Monday was actually taken Tuesday early morning - seems like Forge averages on Monday afternoon were a bit higher, at 63,430,237 (see two posts above)
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Dariah Stardweller
Gallente
Gung-Ho
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Posted - 2010.06.22 11:32:00 -
[190]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 22/06/2010 10:44:59
Hmm... if you look at all of it carefully, it almost looks like somebody's been desperately trying to prop up Megacyte in Jita for the past 4 days or so (most heavily the past two days), because orders there are consistently going up, while the regional average keeps slipping down. In fact, same thing seems to be happening with most minerals, but it's most suspicious (or, you could say, even obvious) for Megacyte.
Pyerite and Isogen in particular have HUGE volume spikes, like somebody cleaned up the market real good, and the Donchian channels of most minerals are going crazy.
Tritanium and Mexallon might actually be going up due to natural causes, though.
Similar to yesterday, Jita buy/sell split is still quite big for minerals (and both noticeably above Forge), with 67,441,613 Jita sell and 65,138,194 Jita buy, while Forge average was 63,066,656.
This snapshot for Monday was actually taken Tuesday early morning - seems like Forge averages on Monday afternoon were a bit higher, at 63,430,237 (see two posts above)
Somebody is sabotaging your bet, spending billions and billions just to prove you wrong :D
Now that would be a compliment really.
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.06.22 12:05:00 -
[191]
If the underlying market is on the way down I think it will take a truly stupendous amount of ISK to stop it.
Even in the short term.
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Darthion Illys
Amarr
Tyrans d'Or
Umbrella Chemical Inc
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Posted - 2010.06.22 13:09:00 -
[192]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 22/06/2010 10:44:59
Hmm... if you look at all of it carefully, it almost looks like somebody's been desperately trying to prop up Megacyte in Jita for the past 4 days or so (most heavily the past two days), because orders there are consistently going up, while the regional average keeps slipping down. In fact, same thing seems to be happening with most minerals, but it's most suspicious (or, you could say, even obvious) for Megacyte.
Pyerite and Isogen in particular have HUGE volume spikes, like somebody cleaned up the market real good, and the Donchian channels of most minerals are going crazy.
Tritanium and Mexallon might actually be going up due to natural causes, though.
Similar to yesterday, Jita buy/sell split is still quite big for minerals (and both noticeably above Forge), with 67,441,613 Jita sell and 65,138,194 Jita buy, while Forge average was 63,066,656.
This snapshot for Monday was actually taken Tuesday early morning - seems like Forge averages on Monday afternoon were a bit higher, at 63,430,237 (see two posts above)
I've done two manips on Pyerite a few days ago, since it was a quite decent profit opening.
The first one cleared out the buy orders, and the second one pushed the price up. Those were short term manips for decently sized monetary gains.
The thing is... unless you're willing to spend (and lose) dozens of billions worth of ISK, it's almost impossible to maintain a trend on the lower end minerals. Both Pyerite and Isogen has had the market, as a whole, forcing those prices up, and not individual speculators.
Several weeks before the launch of Tyrannis, I was sharing my opinion in regards to the future mineral prices, stating an immediate drop in mineral prices as stocks were dropped and downward hype still left its mark. However, following that short term drop, we would see a long term price increase. I still hope I'm correct in that, and until a few days ago, things were truly looking as if the prices would crash, and stay crashed.
The next few days will probably give us a very good indication of where the minerals are heading atm.
PS. Megacyte recently went down big time, for completely unknown reasons. If it's picking up again, that's probably quite reasonable.
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Rouge Drone
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Posted - 2010.06.22 15:16:00 -
[193]
I am picturing CCP's economist spinning in his office chair, high as a kite.
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laksmi2
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Posted - 2010.06.22 18:02:00 -
[194]
after the some patch speculation i ended up with about 5m mega, 45 mill zyd, 700m nocx, 700 mill iso and 5 b mex. those i managed to sell quite quickly, adding to the downward pressure on prices. effect of those sales has worn off for couple of weeks now though. i wouldnt wonder if prices would slowly stabilise. generally i think that you can not work longtime against the power of the market if u plan on making profit that is. u can manipulate short time or push the market into a direction where its headed anyway though. i am in the mineral business nearly 7 years now but i too have to work with what the market gives me as a trend at least longtime.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.22 22:30:00 -
[195]
Originally by: Dariah Stardweller
Somebody is sabotaging your bet, spending billions and billions just to prove you wrong :D
Now that would be a compliment really.
Nah, most likely just trying to make a quick buck and the end-effect is what can be seen.
There's still enough time to the first "pitstop" for things to stabilize (and it's still below "judgment delayed" threshold), and then another month for things to go where I thought they'd go.
Well, at least it makes watching the progress more exciting, since the delays might as well make the other side win afterall (would be hilarious if it keeps at around 56-57 mil near the end, hehe).
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.23 02:41:00 -
[196]
Edited by: Akita T on 23/06/2010 02:42:44
Reserved for Jita-focused end-of-day-r-soon-after price updates on this page. Main Forge updates on top of page.
22.06.2010
Forge avg: 63,756,892 ISK (2.55/5.16/26.16/50.02/115.66/1,062.59/2,389.57)
Jita buy o: 64,627,450 ISK (2.57/5.32/27.12/51.07/117.09/1,020.03/2,431.21)
Jita sell o: 67,514,919 ISK (2.65/5.48/28.34/53.32/126.51/1,097.75/2,566.45)
23.06.2010
-
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.28 01:17:00 -
[197]
That sure was one huge hop over the long downtime (wasn't there at the right time to "take a snapshot" so missed an extra day in the logs), looks like those that bet against me have a decent chance of not losing thanks to the timing, the average could actually barely hover over 65 mil during the judgment day (4 days to go).
Hooray, suspense
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Durnin Stormbrow
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Posted - 2010.06.28 15:08:00 -
[198]
Originally by: Akita T
That sure was one huge hop over the long downtime
The price spike should have been expected. There was a full day of factory slots chugging along while nothing was being harvested.
I expect that it's just a spike though. Since nothing was blown up during the same time period, I'm seeing a bit of surplus on the finished goods side of my local markets.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.28 18:12:00 -
[199]
Originally by: Durnin Stormbrow
The price spike should have been expected. [...] I expect that it's just a spike though.
In hindsight, it's obvious, given the duration of the downtime and its timing (effectively two nights and one day, and since evenings game time are usually the busiest times, you could even call it almost two business cycle days)...
...but who actually expected a more-than-a-day downtime without any actual code changes ?
Prepared for, sure, I always prepare for up to 2-3 days of non-usefulness for any larger downtime, but you still don't actually expect it to happen, heh.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Durnin Stormbrow
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Posted - 2010.06.28 18:45:00 -
[200]
Originally by: Akita T
...but who actually expected a more-than-a-day downtime...
Anyone that got burned by the RMR rollout. That one cost me dearly.
Now, if they say they're gonna empty the trash in the server room, I'm checking to be sure I'm covered.
Originally by: Akita T
Prepared for, sure, I always prepare for up to 2-3 days of non-usefulness for any larger downtime, but you still don't actually expect it to happen, heh.
I'm with you there. I was prepared for the outage, but I didn't position myself to profit from it.
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James Tritanius
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Posted - 2010.06.30 17:29:00 -
[201]
Looks like Akita would just barely squeeze through the first judgement day. Lucky bastard.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.06.30 17:59:00 -
[202]
Originally by: James Tritanius
Looks like Akita would just barely squeeze through the first judgement day. Lucky bastard.
Unlucky is how I'd say it. If not for the price spike, act of god like incident, Akita would clear the mark without any worries. Now, of course, some paint my get sc****d off.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
James Tritanius
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Posted - 2010.06.30 20:06:00 -
[203]
There is truth in what you say. It remains to be seen if the mineral basket would drop below 55mil by August 1st.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.30 20:18:00 -
[204]
Hey, it keeps things exciting with a chance to fail up to the last minute (you know, as opposed to a boring, clear-cut win since, like, forever).
Almost makes you think somebody is scripting all of this, eh ?
...just kidding.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.01 12:50:00 -
[205]
Snapshot shortly after downtime on July 1st 2010...
01.07.2010 (mid-day)
Forge avg:64,413,190 ISK (2.55/5.13/28.03/53.27/119.31/1,007.58/2,265.64)
Jita buy o:61,580,611 ISK (2.42/4.87/26.91/52.03/111.75/988.03/2,126.12)
Jita sell o:62,673,275 ISK (2.45/4.90/27.49/52.37/119.21/1,006.87/2,187.83)
Ayup, seems like we're pretty much almost certainly postponed for a while (at least a week).
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Darthion Illys
Amarr
Tyrans d'Or
Umbrella Chemical Inc
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Posted - 2010.07.01 14:13:00 -
[206]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: James Tritanius
Looks like Akita would just barely squeeze through the first judgement day. Lucky bastard.
Unlucky is how I'd say it. If not for the price spike, act of god like incident, Akita would clear the mark without any worries. Now, of course, some paint my get sc****d off.
Look. Your nose is brown.
I didn't know they ran exploration trips that far into Akita's crack.
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.07.01 18:00:00 -
[207]
Originally by: Akita T
Forge avg:64,413,190 ISK (2.55/5.13/28.03/53.27/119.31/1,007.58/2,265.64)
Exciting! I didn't think it would be so close
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.07.01 18:51:00 -
[208]
Originally by: Darthion Illys
Look. Your nose is brown. I didn't know they ran exploration trips that far into Akita's crack.
Well you've obviously used your tongue to clean the sweat from my sack. Also thank you for the grundle cleaning. Didn't know 1 isk would get me the full service. All thanks to your Momma for referring me to you. Mind, I'm the one holding the kitty on this betting thread so my opinion is pointless in the extreme. (Much like your own I might add). I'm just watching the race and, as you've made apparent, just making myself a flame target for m***ns.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Verite Rendition
Caldari
F.R.E.E. Explorer
The Initiative.
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Posted - 2010.07.02 01:24:00 -
[209]
Originally by: Tiruriku
Originally by: Akita T
Forge avg:64,413,190 ISK (2.55/5.13/28.03/53.27/119.31/1,007.58/2,265.64)
Exciting! I didn't think it would be so close
Indeed! I figured this was a shoe-in, but now I'm thinking I should have bet against Akita T.
So what happens next? The rules of the bet mention that it gets reevaluated weekly from here, but what's this about August 1st?
----
FREE Explorer
Lead Megalomanic
EVE Null-Sec Player Influence Map
http://dl1.eve-files.com/media/corp/Veritefw/FWinf |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.02 01:58:00 -
[210]
Originally by: Verite Rendition
So what happens next? The rules of the bet mention that it gets reevaluated weekly from here, but what's this about August 1st?
The terms kept getting altered to make it more likely for the opposition to win, since almost nobody was taking the bet (even so, very few did) : Linkage
Basically, the rules now are that if it doesn't drop to about 55 mil by the final deadline (1st of August), the opposition still wins.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Samroski
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Posted - 2010.07.02 12:21:00 -
[211]
I did not keep an eye on things for some days, though I had set up some mineral buy orders at reasonably low prices. They started getting filled up, and I thought Akita may have won.
But I am glad to see that we, the anti-Akita group, are still going strong and have a good chance of winning :)
I think you should concede defeat Akita. The mineral basket went down, but not enough.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.02 13:01:00 -
[212]
Edited by: Akita T on 02/07/2010 13:04:16
It dropped before ~8 mil in ~3 weeks, then it went up ~4 mil in ~1 week, dropped ~2 mil in ~5 days, it can still drop ~9 mil in the next 4 weeks... but it's going to be close.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Darthion Illys
Amarr
Tyrans d'Or
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Posted - 2010.07.02 17:37:00 -
[213]
Mineral prices are plummeting right now. But 9 mil in 4 weeks seems like a lot.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.02 18:25:00 -
[214]
Edited by: Akita T on 02/07/2010 18:35:24
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Continuing logs from previous page + some highlights
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17.05.2010 : 71,383,363 ISK (2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74) - Mon, ~1wk before patch
[...]
29.05.2010 : 70,056,585 ISK (2.71/5.73/27.94/52.24/117.20/1,299.84/2,912.48) - Sat
[...]
03.06.2010 : 68,287,827 ISK (2.72/5.74/25.57/49.48/122.86/1,236.37/2,854.45) - Thu, ~1wk post patch
[...]
09.06.2010 : 67,870,563 ISK (2.69/5.75/25.78/48.75/127.71/1,223.04/2,734.01) - Wed, ~2wk post patch
[...]
16.06.2010 : 63,188,935 ISK (2.43/5.26/25.13/48.55/120.79/1,126.05/2,485.03) - Wed, ~3wk post patch
[...]
22.06.2010 : 63,756,892 ISK (2.55/5.16/26.16/50.02/115.66/1,062.59/2,389.57) - Tue
[big downtime]
25.06.2010 : 66,098,659 ISK (2.63/5.30/27.73/52.87/120.95/1,061.49/2,495.37) - Fri
26.06.2010 : 66,056,240 ISK (2.62/5.33/28.11/52.74/121.42/1,043.03/2,463.41) - Sat
27.06.2010 : 65,515,035 ISK (2.58/5.30/27.93/53.16/122.83/1,030.96/2,418.11) - Sun
28.06.2010 : 65,383,133 ISK (2.58/5.25/28.06/54.07/121.78/1,018.35/2,379.68) - Mon
29.06.2010 : 65,005,036 ISK (2.58/5.20/28.03/53.60/121.42/1,011.96/2,309.74) - Tue
30.06.2010 : 64,824,287 ISK (2.57/5.18/28.06/53.63/121.37/1,008.12/2,284.77) - Wed, ~5wk post patch
01.07.2010 : 64,259,461 ISK (2.54/5.11/28.01/53.17/119.23/1,007.27/2,259.36) - Thu - JUDGMENT DAY 1
02.07.2010 : 63,929,831 ISK (2.52/5.05/27.94/53.06/119.91/1,006.14/2,245.93) - Fri
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.02 18:34:00 -
[215]
___
Recent Jita IV-4 "trends" vs Forge average:
___
25.06.2010
Forge avg: 66,098,659 ISK (2.63/5.30/27.73/52.87/120.95/1,061.49/2,495.37)
Jita buy o: 62,736,748 ISK (2.50/5.09/27.24/51.55/115.13/977.00/2,131.07)
Jita sell o: 64,689,756 ISK (2.54/5.17/27.96/52.76/122.00/1,025.97/2,336.97)
26.06.2010
Forge avg: 66,056,240 ISK (2.62/5.33/28.11/52.74/121.42/1,043.03/2,463.41)
Jita buy o: 63,556,238 ISK (2.50/5.10/27.62/51.23/119.89/999.52/2,290.00)
Jita sell o: 65,537,065 ISK (2.62/5.22/28.16/53.00/122.76/1,027.00/2,333.96)
27.06.2010
Forge avg: 65,515,035 ISK (2.58/5.30/27.93/53.16/122.83/1,030.96/2,418.11)
Jita buy o: 64,084,178 ISK (2.58/5.15/27.47/54.12/114.13/982.12/2,223.00)
Jita sell o: 65,771,009 ISK (2.61/5.18/27.97/58.86/117.00/1,020.78/2,331.99)
28.06.2010
Forge avg: 65,383,133 ISK (2.58/5.25/28.06/54.07/121.78/1,018.35/2,379.68)
Jita buy o: 62,406,920 ISK (2.52/4.49/27.95/52.89/117.08/978.31/2,172.20)
Jita sell o: 66,177,797 ISK (2.65/5.20/29.11/54.88/121.52/1,018.88/2,276.98)
29.06.2010
Forge avg: 65,005,036 ISK (2.58/5.20/28.03/53.60/121.42/1,011.96/2,309.74)
Jita buy o: 63,436,920 ISK (2.53/4.96/27.85/53.00/117.81/992.05/2,163.10)
Jita sell o: 64,616,291 ISK (2.58/5.04/28.33/53.63/121.06/1,016.99/2,195.99)
30.06.2010
Forge avg: 64,824,287 ISK (2.57/5.18/28.06/53.63/121.37/1,008.12/2,284.77)
Jita buy o: 61,000,187 ISK (2.43/4.81/26.41/50.52/111.00/980.04/2,105.00)
Jita sell o: 63,232,229 ISK (2.49/4.87/28.01/52.61/119.49/1,010.00/2,190.95)
01.07.2010
Forge avg: 64,259,461 ISK (2.54/5.11/28.01/53.17/119.23/1,007.27/2,259.36)
Jita buy o: 60,981,999 ISK (2.36/4.82/26.99/50.60/115.04/988.05/2,119.37)
Jita sell o: 62,518,558 ISK (2.44/4.84/27.41/51.98/118.74/1,006.88/2,246.74)
02.07.2010
Forge avg: 63,929,831 ISK (2.52/5.05/27.94/53.06/119.91/1,006.14/2,245.93)
Jita buy o: 61,132,939 ISK (2.43/4.73/26.55/50.30/114.01/979.29/2,176.06)
Jita sell o: 62,606,461 ISK (2.48/4.78/27.05/51.72/118.42/1,022.98/2,244.96)
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Vandoxarr
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Posted - 2010.07.03 00:29:00 -
[216]
Come on people, one of you 0.1 Bots in Jita churn this raw data into some kinda pretty xls graph that we can all goggle at.
Do eet
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.07.03 01:21:00 -
[217]
Originally by: Samroski
In retrospect I feel that the odds were stacked against you and that the terms were not entirely fair (for you). Strangely, hardly anyone bet against you. Having said that, my understanding of the market is still poor, and Eve is a strange game, which is not over yet :)
I think the odds actually slightly lean in Akita's favor a bit, but it is probably fairly close. Since it was a given that prices would drop there had to be some reason to make the bet and a generous spread was necessary to make it fair. Personally I would have done 50-60m instead of 55-65m as my range with anything between 50m-60m on August 1st considered a draw, but Akita made a good point that 'crash' really has to represent something major so his final betting terms were quite fair. (and more advantageous to make the bet)
It might look okay for the anti-akita folks now but I was sweating the first couple weeks! At least now it is interesting. I'm optimistic by 8/1 prices will be above 55m but it is going to be close. So much has happened the last month anything could have a significant impact.
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Tekota
legion industries ltd
Veni Vidi Vici Alliance
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Posted - 2010.07.03 01:29:00 -
[218]
Originally by: Vandoxarr
Come on people, one of you 0.1 Bots in Jita churn this raw data into some kinda pretty xls graph that we can all goggle at.
Do eet
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.03 15:23:00 -
[219]
Don't forget that starting July 9th Hulkageddon starts with prizes being offered to whoever kills the most hulks and/or mining ships in highsec.
While just a small blip in EVE, it's still something to consider as some people simply won't mine for the entire week.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.06 00:03:00 -
[220]
Then again, most people will keep on mining, completely oblivious to the fact there is such a thing as "Hulkageddon" (otherwise who would get killed in it anyway), and some will have to re-buy Hulks (or maybe even just Covetors) and either sell some unsold stocks of minerals/ore at a less attractive price, or mine that much more to recoup the losses.
Overall, previous Hulkageddons had only minimal impact on mineral prices overall, so it just might still be a wash either way. The largest fluctuations will most likely come from speculators trying to anticipate price shifts (and ending up switching money between them) rather than actual supply/demand action.
Oh well, who knows, a lot of things could happen, which only makes watching things unfold more exciting
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.07.06 00:44:00 -
[221]
Originally by: Akita T
The largest fluctuations will most likely come from speculators trying to anticipate price shifts (and ending up switching money between them) rather than actual supply/demand action.
On this topic I would love to know how much of the trade volume in PI products over the last few weeks has been between traders vying with each other as the markets shifted up and down. It could make for an interesting discussion in the QEN and seems like it would be relatively easy to gather data for. I don't know how the EVE item database works, but I imagine you'd be able to have a script cull out trades on PI items where the item was bought and sold in the same station without ever being shifted around.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.06 01:21:00 -
[222]
That doesn't really have to do with the topic at hand, but feel free to make a thread about it, could be interesting.
Still, problem is, when was the last time they took any serious suggestions from us about what to talk in the QENs ?
So it would most likely be ultimately pointless.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.07.06 15:03:00 -
[223]
I don't expect hulkageddon to have a significant impact on this contest. Many macro's run in .7, .8, .9 systems where it is harder to gank and IMO that represents a majority of mineral supply. Additionally Hulkageddon 2 only killed around 1200 ships and that was when IER made those ships free. I wouldn't be surprised if some people were blowing up their own insured barges to win the hulkageddon prizes. Now that is no longer the case.
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mental maverick
Duty.
Duty. Private Security
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Posted - 2010.07.07 22:17:00 -
[224]
As Akita said the QEN seldom discuss anything really interesting or useful to the market community that isn't already common knowledge. Besides, if it turns out that there is a very small part of PI-mats traded coming from actual production, I doubt CCP would advertise that.
On topic then: last hulkageddon didn't have a noticeable effect on minerals but did have an effect on hulk prices. But take a look in C&P sections of the forums. The event is growing every time so who knows, this time around they might manage to make an impact on the mineral prices. Even if its just notable and very short lived, I'd say that that would be quite the accomplishment on the Hulkageddon participants part
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James Tritanius
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Posted - 2010.07.10 05:03:00 -
[225]
Hulkageddon 3 started. Let's see if Akita's predictions about it not (majorly) influencing mineral prices is correct.
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.07.10 11:38:00 -
[226]
Oddly enough, Hulkageddon may save Akita's butt. Speculation-driven price surges in EVE are followed by vicious supply-flood crashes -- doubly so in the mineral market where the producers have a reaction lag of about a week.
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.07.10 23:10:00 -
[227]
09.10.2010
Forge Avg: 62,685,861 ISK (2.49/4.85/28.38/53.30/122.24/984.84/2175.10)
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2010.07.13 18:50:00 -
[228]
@ tekota
I wasn't the guy asking for it but thanks for the graph.
I like tables too but seeing the graph's make it really easy to grok.
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.07.13 20:28:00 -
[229]
09.13.2010
Forge Avg: 63,786,021 ISK (2.50/4.80/29.33/56.55/122.37/992.12/2281.09)
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James Tritanius
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Posted - 2010.07.14 05:21:00 -
[230]
Originally by: Charles37
09.13.2010
Forge Avg: 63,786,021 ISK (2.50/4.80/29.33/56.55/122.37/992.12/2281.09)
Are you a fortune teller?
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.14 10:09:00 -
[231]
Linkage
No idea if it's purely from speculators or actual Hulkageddon effect, but damn, not looking very good for me right now, eh ?
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Vasaczk
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Posted - 2010.07.14 21:54:00 -
[232]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 14/07/2010 13:28:17
Graphs linkage
No idea if it's purely from speculators or actual Hulkageddon effect, but damn, not looking very good for me right now, eh ?
Heh, I bet some speculators are kicking themselves now. Turns out with Hulk+Speculation it was actually a pretty sound bet >.<
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James Tritanius
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Posted - 2010.07.14 23:42:00 -
[233]
Tomorrow is another judgement day, but I doubt the basket price will go over 65mil. We may just have to wait until August 1st.
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Acorn FB
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Posted - 2010.07.15 15:05:00 -
[234]
Hulkagedden and wars may have a much larger effect than in prior periods since the existance of IER caused a near infinite demand for minerals at the point blowing up your ships for insurance became profitable. This means there was always excess minerals on the market to what is actually required for actual game use. When the price exceeded the IER market basket price those minerals filled in the holes and kept the prices from rising to high. (and assuming people blew up fewer ships for a few weeks)
Now if mineral supply spikes downward (hulkageddon) or demand spikes up (big war), we may see larger price fluctations since there is no large amount of slack in the supply market.
During times of peace we should see a slow fall in prices as miners enter the market to replace the past wars shortfall, until the point some miners stop working and the market stabilizes. (macros will always provide some supply)
short version : Prices will find a level, but massive swings maybe in our future.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.16 13:51:00 -
[235]
Added Raven actual daily average trade price to the graph
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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James Tritanius
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Posted - 2010.07.16 15:18:00 -
[236]
So, Akita, what are your predictions for the next two weeks? Do you think the price will drop to under 55mil before August 1st?
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.16 17:46:00 -
[237]
I say it will keep going up until the 18th (end of Hulkageddon III) then start another sharp drop
Now... no idea if it will go back down to 55 mil in time
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.16 23:42:00 -
[238]
Edited by: Akita T on 16/07/2010 23:46:29
Hmm, looks like ship reprocessin' time again, just like in 20-22 June
P.S. Here's the latest XLS file tracking everything (plus graph) in case anybody is interested.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
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Posted - 2010.07.17 12:29:00 -
[239]
I bought another 60bn isk worth of assorted minerals over the last couple of days.
Just saying
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34.4:1 mineral compression |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.17 12:46:00 -
[240]
Damn you, Salazar !
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.07.19 11:07:00 -
[241]
Might I actually win?!
Anyone care to speculate about the reasons for the prices moving as they are (i.e. up not down)?
1) Hulkageddon III
2) Mass buying of minerals for outposts following PI debacle
3) Miners got bored and went off to do something more interesting like PI (see what I did there?)
4) I bought all the mineral stocks just to win this bet
5) The reduction in mineral supply from loot drop changes outweighed the changes in consumption via insurance fraud (i.e. Cosmoray lied about how many ships he was suiciding and we all believed him)
6) An enormous secret war is going on somewhere that is consuming an astronomical amount of cap ships.
7) Something else I haven't thought of
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Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
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Posted - 2010.07.19 11:25:00 -
[242]
It's certainly been a lot more exciting than I expected, even if I lose (though I don't think I will now) it's been worth it in entertainment value.
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Serra deZoltral
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Posted - 2010.07.19 11:36:00 -
[243]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
6) An enormous secret war is going on somewhere that is consuming an astronomical amount of cap ships.
like the 4 way FFA in insmother atm? not that secret :D
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laksmi2
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Posted - 2010.07.19 12:46:00 -
[244]
200 m trit per day is about one % of the trit traded in forge. so dont think the cap components have such a large impact. before patch 25% of the minerals i sold came from module recycling. this percentage is now below 5 % (guesstimate) other sources havent filled the gap completely yet.
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Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
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Posted - 2010.07.19 13:07:00 -
[245]
Originally by: laksmi2
200 m trit per day is about one % of the trit traded in forge. so dont think the cap components have such a large impact. before patch 25% of the minerals i sold came from module recycling. this percentage is now below 5 % (guesstimate) other sources havent filled the gap completely yet.
My numbers put it around 0.5-0.7 % of jita volume, but it doesn't need to be a large percentage of the volume to have an impact. The very nature of supply demand pricing is the market is very close to equilibrium and takes very little to switch from one side of the tipping point to the other.
What matters is how does this effect the over all balance of supply. If the over supply was 1% it might slow down the decline. If the over supply was 0.1 % it would reverse the trend.
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Hulkageddon Jackpot
Amarr
Hulkageddon Orphanage
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Posted - 2010.07.19 13:44:00 -
[246]
I dont really think my event has any noticable economic impact beyond what the speculators try to make of it.
Yes, 1700 exhumers and 29 orcas is a lot on a personal level, but on the market level it's not even a blip.
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Macvombat
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Posted - 2010.07.19 13:58:00 -
[247]
Originally by: Hulkageddon Jackpot
I dont really think my event has any noticable economic impact beyond what the speculators try to make of it.
Yes, 1700 exhumers and 29 orcas is a lot on a personal level, but on the market level it's not even a blip.
Truth is though, that after the last one (back in january i think?) Hulk prices went to around 200 mill + - 10-20 dependent on location, wether that is speculation or just Hulk producers not being able to keep up i dont know.
The Mac has arrived |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.19 14:54:00 -
[248]
Originally by: Macvombat
Truth is though, that after the last one (back in january i think?) Hulk prices went to around 200 mill + - 10-20 dependent on location, wether that is speculation or just Hulk producers not being able to keep up i dont know.
That was because of a nasty shortage in reaction capability due to the component need changes, a gap that was since filled, and reaction profitability went back down to pre-Dominion levels, alongside advanced product and T2 component prices.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Umega
Solis Mensa
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Posted - 2010.07.20 07:49:00 -
[249]
Originally by: Hulkageddon Jackpot
I dont really think my event has any noticable economic impact beyond what the speculators try to make of it.
Yes, 1700 exhumers and 29 orcas is a lot on a personal level, but on the market level it's not even a blip.
It obviously has some impact. Nothing massive, but certainly something.
Have to keep in mind several aspects of the event..
Yes the 1700 humers and 29 orcas, 800ish barges PLUS all the ships used to gank. The amount of minerals used up to make several thousand gank ships.. all of this while a signifcant percentage of minerals isn't being put into the market because either, miners ain't mining cause ships locked away for 9 days, and they bein' blown up.
Also.. highsec miners tend to turn mission runners for the week. Mod melting ain't quite what it used to be, so the crutch that took place previous geddon's isn't happening at the precentage it did then during this one.
And hopefully several dozen (I hope more, but I'll be pessimistic) macros got exposed, reported, and banned. Hardly much of anything, but always good n helpful long term. Everything adds up.
Not too mention number of failed ganks (yeah, I got a couple ), still creating mineral removal. All this, again.. without as much mod melting influence as before. The tiny little pebble turned into a slightly bigger rock thrown into the market pond this time around.
----------------------------------------
-Treat the EVE Market like you're a pimp and it is your 'employee'.. freely fondle it as you wish and make it pay you for it- |
Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:13:00 -
[250]
Originally by: Akita T
17.07.2010 : 65,220,498 ISK (2.49/4.81/30.52/58.32/123.89/1,001.12/2,264.71) - Sat
18.07.2010 : 65,797,973 ISK (2.49/4.79/31.28/59.95/124.68/1,004.46/2,271.13) - Sun (last day of Hulkageddon-III)
19.07.2010 : 66,333,980 ISK (2.50/4.77/31.80/60.53/128.50/1,006.92/2,294.26) - Mon
3 days above 65m, looks like this next judgement day (tommorow?) could be the last.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 05:11:00 -
[251]
End of 20 july graph.
Judgement days are Thursdays (1, 8, 15, 22, 29), and data is gathered by late Thursdays // early Fridays near server date change.
But yeah, thanks to a lot of practically unforeseeable factors working together, it sure does look like it will be a loss for me by that time... since it's next to impossible for the moving average to go down enough by then.
Good news for those few that did bet against me
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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pmchem
Minmatar
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.21 05:55:00 -
[252]
Looking forward to the post-judgment day mineral drop when all the people betting against you can de-leverage their manipulation investments.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:14:00 -
[253]
Originally by: pmchem
Looking forward to the post-judgment day mineral drop when all the people betting against you can de-leverage their manipulation investments.
It would make very little sense to pull off such a large-scale manipulation in order to win some negligible amounts of ISK from a bet (the grand total bet was only 1.6 bil).
I seriously doubt the fact this bet was live had much to do with the mineral price evolution.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Samroski
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:25:00 -
[254]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: pmchem
Looking forward to the post-judgment day mineral drop when all the people betting against you can de-leverage their manipulation investments.
It would make very little sense to pull off such a large-scale manipulation in order to win some negligible amounts of ISK from a bet (the grand total bet was only 1.6 bil).
I seriously doubt the fact this bet was live had much to do with the mineral price evolution.
You are underestimating the forum anti-Akita sentiment :)
The powers-that-be will not openly bet against you, but will invest trillions to rub your nose in the dust; to undermine your prophetic influence on the market.
Looking forward to the crash, post-judgement :)
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:29:00 -
[255]
Ain't that a nice conspiracy theory you have there...
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Casmy Blue
Gallente
Power and Water
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:34:00 -
[256]
Originally by: Samroski
You are underestimating the forum anti-Akita sentiment :)
The powers-that-be will not openly bet against you, but will invest trillions to rub your nose in the dust; to undermine your prophetic influence on the market.
It's hard to be this delusional, so I can only assume you're not in that "anti-Akita" sentiment considering how highly you apparently regard her influence on the market.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:41:00 -
[257]
Edited by: Akita T on 21/07/2010 11:41:35
My bet would be he's joking, but that translates poorly in forum-written posts.
P.S. The two smileys "could be" a hint
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Casmy Blue
Gallente
Power and Water
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 11:51:00 -
[258]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 21/07/2010 11:41:35
My bet would be he's joking, but that translates poorly in forum-written posts.
P.S. The two smileys "could be" a hint
I will make a snarky-sounding comment here in the spirit of the thread indicating that if you're betting he's kidding, he must be dead serious.
>_>
|
zz01shagsme
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 12:16:00 -
[259]
So hows it looking for insurance fraud? are we back up and running yet?
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 13:02:00 -
[260]
Originally by: zz01shagsme
So hows it looking for insurance fraud? are we back up and running yet?
Not even close, and extremely unlikely to get there any time soon.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Zea Aestria
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 14:45:00 -
[261]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: zz01shagsme
So hows it looking for insurance fraud? are we back up and running yet?
Not even close, and extremely unlikely to get there any time soon.
Last I heard (shortly after the deployment of Tyrannis), ~53m ISK was the level at which it would be profitable to acquire a Raven for IER. Anyone have better data than this?
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 15:14:00 -
[262]
Originally by: Zea Aestria
Last I heard (shortly after the deployment of Tyrannis), ~53m ISK was the level at which it would be profitable to acquire a Raven for IER. Anyone have better data than this?
That's about right. But then again, before the change, a Raven's IER was a bit over 76 mil, yet it was selling for around 75 mil, and the minerals were worth only about 71 mil, so you would need to have the mineral basket hover somewhere around 48 mil ISK for a while WITHOUT CCP making yet another insurance payout adjustment before IER becomes fashionable again.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Casmy Blue
Gallente
Power and Water
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 15:16:00 -
[263]
Edited by: Casmy Blue on 21/07/2010 15:17:13
Raven insurance payout, last I checked, was 70.8m.
So, you could start blowing them up now and technically you'd be ahead if the mineral basket + insurance was below 70m. 55ish seemed right.
I'm sure there are more enterprising things in which to invest 65m in minerals, or wherever the current basket is.
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Uppsy Daisy
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 16:06:00 -
[264]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 21/07/2010 11:41:35
My bet would be he's joking, but that translates poorly in forum-written posts.
P.S. The two smileys "could be" a hint
I think you're right. So far as I'm concerned, my total wealth is about 10 billion, only about 3 is available.
I cannot influence prices to any extent.
And hey! I like Akita!
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 16:37:00 -
[265]
Edited by: Akita T on 21/07/2010 16:39:59
Originally by: Casmy Blue
Raven insurance payout, last I checked, was 70.8m.
So, you could start blowing them up now and technically you'd be ahead if the mineral basket + insurance was below 70m.
For a ~70.8 payout you'd have to pay roughly ~21.2 premium, and overall back ~49.6
You'd expect a bare minimum of 1 mil profit for your explodey troubles, and another 1 mil profit for the manufacture markup (otherwise it's almost not worth bothering, there are times when Ravens sell even for 4 mil manufacture markup)... so the total mineral cost would have to be somewhere below ~47.6 for this to be worth doing.
If the minerals are worth close to or more than ~50 mil, you're actually losing money if you try to do this, even if you take into account the best possible salvage and assume no markup for manufacture and your exploding troubles.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Tiruriku
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 17:19:00 -
[266]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
And hey! I like Akita!
The real winner here has got to be Uppsy Daisy. Brilliant strategy, I must say
1. Kept a post authored by you on the MD front page for over two months with nearly 30k views, great rep building
2. Won (or will likely win) money but only bet against Akita to get things rolling and 'just for fun' as not to make any enemies
3. Use any anti-akita sentiment to get the deep pockets to influence prices
I joke of course.
Could an Uppsy Daisy IPO dealing with mineral speculation be next?
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laksmi2
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 18:56:00 -
[267]
hey mr ishiguro stop buying my shop empty. others want some tasty stuff too.
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 19:27:00 -
[268]
Originally by: laksmi2
hey mr ishiguro stop buying my shop empty. others want some tasty stuff too.
Out of curiosity, how many times has this happened so far? I tend to lose track when I keep buying out the bottom 10-15 orders for most highends.
---
34.4:1 mineral compression |
laksmi2
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 19:54:00 -
[269]
could be i wanted to create some panic and interest in my products. :-) on the other hand i get concerned when sellorder volume goes into the double digit numbers.
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Induc
Amarr
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 20:59:00 -
[270]
I haven't really been following this thread, but I got a question.
I read somewhere that the base mineral cost calculation had to be manually triggered by CCP. So the question is, has the insurance payouts been adjusting due to falling minerals prices or are they still at the same level as right after the Tyrannis launch?
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Charles37
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 21:25:00 -
[271]
Originally by: Induc
I haven't really been following this thread, but I got a question.
I read somewhere that the base mineral cost calculation had to be manually triggered by CCP. So the question is, has the insurance payouts been adjusting due to falling minerals prices or are they still at the same level as right after the Tyrannis launch?
I don't believe CCP ever stated if it was manual adjustments or automatic adjustments every x days/weeks, just that insurance rates would be tied to the market. I haven't been keeping track of insurance prices, but if anyone has the data it would be interesting to see.
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gallentealt
|
Posted - 2010.07.22 00:38:00 -
[272]
Is this where you got the idea?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Simon
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Alice Celadon
|
Posted - 2010.07.22 00:42:00 -
[273]
The real shocker here that I don't see any of the big names touting is that CCP MAY HAVE GOTTEN INDUSTRY BALANCE RIGHT THIS TIME.
The ingrained MD mantras "miners think minerals are free and mining macros will always saturate the market down to insurance levels" may no longer apply with the Meta0 nerf and a careful rebalance undertaken with enough data and planning involved. I await the new MD platitudes with baited mouse clicks.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.22 02:05:00 -
[274]
Edited by: Akita T on 22/07/2010 02:05:31
_
They might have gotten it right ?
I seriously doubt it.
Slightly less wrong, maybe, but right... nah.
Well, let's count'em all... all the changes made by CCP and other things that happened that worked on mineral prices and the mining profession:
* DRASTICALLY lowered insurance payouts (no more IER demand),
* widescreen changes that forced quite a few macros/bots to malfunction, but they'll rebound eventually if they haven't already (less supply),
* meta 0 rebalance that made quite a few mission-runners change their loot/salvage patterns (but you never know how things will eventually settle),
* additional lowends added to some 0.0 ores making 0.0 slightly less reliable on empire-obtained resources and decreasing the need to export highends (but full effect is still to be seen),
* capship-capable pilots attracted by cheaper capitals (increasing demand) PLUS allegedly some recent massive wars breaking out (ramping up capship demand even more),
* and last but not least the recent Hulkageddon that while running worked on both the supply and the demand side of things (less supply due to dead barges and miners avoiding mining, more demand for the ganker ships).
Oh, and let's not forget, the hottest part of the summer is almost always the part where activity levels drop EVE-wide thanks to the end of the school/university study year and vacation season.
Until shortly before Hulkageddon-III, things were heading pretty much in the "trending towards new IER breakeven" direction, then they rebounded. While H3 alone is doubtful to have had this effect, some of the latter mentioned things most likely had a hand in it all.
While I am almost certain I will lose the bet in less than 24h thanks to mineral prices rebounding above the "undecided" level before the final deadline, I am also still pretty confident they will eventually end up near the new IER breakeven... not so confident on the timeline though.
Well, one thing did come out of this though : it looks like lowsec ores might actually have a chance to become slightly more valuable than highsec ores again.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.22 02:34:00 -
[275]
Edited by: Akita T on 22/07/2010 02:37:14
21 July data :
Mineral basket graphs
NEW : Relative mineral values graph (for Raven perfect build)
21jul XLS
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
James Tritanius
|
Posted - 2010.07.22 05:16:00 -
[276]
It doesn't really look good for Akita...
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.22 07:23:00 -
[277]
It's that damn pesky Mexallon's fault
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Uppsy Daisy
|
Posted - 2010.07.22 08:35:00 -
[278]
Originally by: Tiruriku
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
And hey! I like Akita!
The real winner here has got to be Uppsy Daisy. Brilliant strategy, I must say
1. Kept a post authored by you on the MD front page for over two months with nearly 30k views, great rep building
2. Won (or will likely win) money but only bet against Akita to get things rolling and 'just for fun' as not to make any enemies
3. Use any anti-akita sentiment to get the deep pockets to influence prices
I joke of course.
Could an Uppsy Daisy IPO dealing with mineral speculation be next?
Mwahahahahaaa! I am in fact an evil genius.
|
Miss AmarrPriceCheck
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 01:21:00 -
[279]
So, is this over? And what's everyone's pet theory as to why Mex and only Mex is spiking so hard?
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Alice Celadon
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 02:17:00 -
[280]
Akita, your response had a lot of "eventually" and "we'll see how that settles" in it. That's all well and good, but the confidence with which you made your mineral basket bets over the time span of a month belies the truth: EVE markets react and correct swiftly.
When you have 100k+ operators with nearly perfect material transport, industrial flexibility, and monetary liquidity it should be expected.
I don't like CCP getting it right anymore that you do. Whatever will I whine and cluck my tongue about now? But seriously at some point in the next few months it's going to become undeniable that the Era of the IER Floor is over.
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 02:33:00 -
[281]
22.07.2010 : 67,416,291 ISK (2.49/4.67/33.63/58.78/137.16/1,041.82/2,375.73) - Thu - JD4 - BET LOST
Originally by: Alice Celadon
But seriously at some point in the next few months it's going to become undeniable that the Era of the IER Floor is over.
The era of IER floor was over before the Tyrannis patch went live, from the moment they announced adjustable insurance payouts. It was never really something under doubt.
Quote:
Akita, your response had a lot of "eventually" and "we'll see how that settles" in it. That's all well and good, but the confidence with which you made your mineral basket bets over the time span of a month belies the truth: EVE markets react and correct swiftly.
My initial point was that prices will drop to near whatever the IER was right after Tyrannis went live, and by that I still stand. Then in this thread it was revised to include a loose timeline and some trigger values, to make the bet more attractive. After nobody took that either, it was revised again to include even harsher rules and time constraints, and finally just a few people took it.
I might have lost this bet according to the terms agreed upon in this thread, but I still believe this rebound in mineral prices won't last very long.
My response obviously had to have a lot of "eventually" in it because, well, I have no idea when the boys fighting with them loads of capships are going to settle down a little, I have no idea how long it will take from miners scared off by Hulkageddon to get back to mining, and no idea how many bot-users CCP banned recently and how long they'll need to get back on track... to name but the strongest probable influences on recent mineral prices.
P.S. Also, what the heck, Mexallon
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 04:30:00 -
[282]
Akita T eve-mailed me about his/her loss on this bet. I'll get started making a list of all those who put in and get them there stake and winnings back in the next day or two.
Minus a 25% handler's fee right?
/joke.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
James Tritanius
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 04:46:00 -
[283]
HOORAY!
/dances
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Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 04:52:00 -
[284]
Here's the list:
Person Bet Transferred
Charles37 100,000,000.00 200,000,000.00
Uppsy Daisy 250,000,000.00 500,000,000.00
Tiruriku 500,000,000.00 1,000,000,000.00
Samroski 50,000,000.00 100,000,000.00
Makro SSRI 500,000,000.00 1,000,000,000.00
Llyandrian 100,000,000.00 200,000,000.00
Congrats to the winners, congrats to everyone who participated in the thread.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Charles37
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 05:19:00 -
[285]
Confirming that I received 200m isk from Shar.
It's been a fun run, and while I do think that circumstance (and maybe a few anti Akita individuals) conspired to make the bet work out in favor of the 'no crash' group I think it spawned some interesting discussions and was an enjoyable, or at the very least entertaining, experience not for only those involved but many of the other posters on the board as well.
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altinateee
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 06:41:00 -
[286]
One thing about market calls in general, or two,
1) The easiest way to look like an expert is to be bearish
2) Be a constant bear and one day you will "eventually" be correct, and all will hail you
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Uppsy Daisy
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 08:00:00 -
[287]
Edited by: Uppsy Daisy on 23/07/2010 08:00:41
Originally by: Akita T
My initial point was that prices will drop to near whatever the IER was right after Tyrannis went live, and by that I still stand. Then in this thread it was revised to include a loose timeline and some trigger values, to make the bet more attractive. After nobody took that either, it was revised again to include even harsher rules and time constraints, and finally just a few people took it.
I might have lost this bet according to the terms agreed upon in this thread, but I still believe this rebound in mineral prices won't last very long.
My response obviously had to have a lot of "eventually" in it because, well, I have no idea when the boys fighting with them loads of capships are going to settle down a little, I have no idea how long it will take from miners scared off by Hulkageddon to get back to mining, and no idea how many bot-users CCP banned recently and how long they'll need to get back on track... to name but the strongest probable influences on recent mineral prices.
P.S. Also, what the heck, Mexallon
I must say, I am extremely surprised (and grateful) to be on the receiving end of this. I don't really feel like I deserve anything, being such a n00b in this forum.
Anyway, on to my Mineral Bond IPO now... 
(Thanks also to Shar Tegral)
|
James Tritanius
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 14:57:00 -
[288]
Posting to confirm that I have received 200,000,000 bet rewards from Akita himself.
|
Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 15:05:00 -
[289]
Originally by: altinateee
Drivel
How does your liver taste? I only wonder as your envy is showing.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 18:27:00 -
[290]
Confirming settlement recieved.
|
pmchem
Minmatar
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.23 23:52:00 -
[291]
Originally by: pmchem
Looking forward to the post-judgment day mineral drop when all the people betting against you can de-leverage their manipulation investments.
And, here it comes. Looking at the price histories of minerals, every single one has either dropped or is holding steady the past 2 days. If that continues through the weekend it'd be pretty telling, since weekends are often high demand.
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Samroski
|
Posted - 2010.07.24 12:39:00 -
[292]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Here's the list:
Person Bet Transferred
Samroski 50,000,000.00 100,000,000.00
Congrats to the winners, congrats to everyone who participated in the thread.
Received. Thanks.
My previous comments on the anti-akita forum sentiment were purely in jest :)
I do think Akita influences the forums. How much one man can influence the Eve market is debatable.
I believe there are multiple influences on the market, some of which may not be obvious or quantifiable. Thus, I felt relatively secure while placing my bet. Still amazed why many did not, especially when Akita stacked the odds against himself.
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Tiruriku
|
Posted - 2010.07.25 03:46:00 -
[293]
Confirming receipt.
Thank you to shar for acting as third party and especially for waiving your fee.
Thank you to Uppsy Daisy for getting the thread going, it was fun.
And thank you to Akita for doing all the actual work, e.g. posting and graphing daily updates so nobody else had to.
|
Dr Nefarius
|
Posted - 2010.07.25 10:29:00 -
[294]
Edited by: Dr Nefarius on 25/07/2010 10:31:32
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1352113
Could perhaps this small buyorder on capitals have had some notable effect on the minerals price? If someone started buying up minerals in the forge for mineral compression to this order, would it be enough to hold up the market for a while?
ed: too lazy to check the mineral cost with new values, but I'd guess it's over 500 b in minerals for that order.
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Molic Blackbird
|
Posted - 2010.07.25 16:50:00 -
[295]
Originally by: Akita T
My initial point was that prices will drop to near whatever the IER was right after Tyrannis went live, and by that I still stand.
I'll put up a 5b ISK bet that the Raven basket price hasn't reach the 55m ISK mark on Oct 1st.
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
|
Posted - 2010.07.25 23:20:00 -
[296]
nobody messes with Akita T and gets away with it!
SKUNK
(o)
|
Melina Havlock
Yusheng Industries Ltd
|
Posted - 2010.07.26 00:57:00 -
[297]
Congrats to the winners, was keeping my eye on this thread a bit.
Would love to see more public wagers like this TBH
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Uppsy Daisy
|
Posted - 2010.07.26 07:48:00 -
[298]
Happy to put up 500 million (double or quits) on another wager, this one has been interesting!
Future mineral basket prices or maybe PI materials spring to mind as potential ones to go for..
Would be nice to see one of the other vocal forum gurus backing it..
|
Andrea Griffin
|
Posted - 2010.07.27 19:35:00 -
[299]
Originally by: Le Skunk
nobody messes with Akita T and gets away with it!
SKUNK
QFT.
Also, this has been a very interesting ride with some great discussion. I learned a lot from this thread. Thanks everyone!
Fix Rockets in '08 '09 2010 2011 2012?! |
Heimer
Minmatar
Republic University
|
Posted - 2010.07.28 06:29:00 -
[300]
Wait.... mineral prices have rebounded? *tries to find piles of minerals in a dusty hangar....*
( ) <- planet (not to scale) áááááá --EhonVonnre |
Amarr Citizen 155
Nordar Innovations.
|
Posted - 2010.07.28 06:55:00 -
[301]
Looks like I can now pull that 200b out of mex. Get ready for a crash.
-----------------/finger
I only post on MD when I'm too drunk too give a ****. |
Kharass Al'Quam
Minmatar
Fleet of Doom
Phoenix Virtue
|
Posted - 2010.08.20 16:09:00 -
[302]
I might not be a market guru that write many words, but i sure like being right.
God is my Co-pilot |
Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
|
Posted - 2010.08.20 17:39:00 -
[303]
I bet the sun will go down this evening, and it will go down hard with a red glow.
I make no bets about it coming up again tomorrow.
--
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.08.20 18:39:00 -
[304]
Edited by: Akita T on 20/08/2010 18:40:35
Originally by: Kharass Al'Quam
I might not be a market guru that write many words, but i sure like being right.
...and everything is propped up by mainly just Mexallon, while the market is still highly unstable.
Oh, well, one can't always be completely right.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
|
Posted - 2010.08.20 19:43:00 -
[305]
Originally by: Akita T
...and everything is propped up by mainly just Mexallon, while the market is still highly unstable.
Oh, well, one can't always be completely right.
When Chribba says, "Veldspar is Veldspar" does one believe him, because it is a simple truth to believe. The man then knows his rocks.
You make stupid predictions, pulled out of thin air and based on a lucky hunch, ready to put it down with an even stupider comment should it be wrong. Only God knows what you know.
--
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.08.20 20:28:00 -
[306]
If you say so...
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
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Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
|
Posted - 2010.08.20 20:55:00 -
[307]
Originally by: Akita T
If you say so...
If?!
Someone just stole Akita's account! She never uses the word "If", ever!
--
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.08.20 21:22:00 -
[308]
Right...
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Zorn Baderdash
|
Posted - 2010.08.20 23:22:00 -
[309]
I for one, admire the balls to bet like this.
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Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.08.21 00:32:00 -
[310]
Originally by: Zorn Baderdash
I for one, admire the balls to bet like this.
And now you understand all the envy... errr... trolling.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes
Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves;
Aptitude and intellect are needless here;
'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
|
Posted - 2010.08.21 08:39:00 -
[311]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
And now you understand all the envy... errr... trolling.
Technically is betting the same as trolling.
Only those with too much ISKs, or with ISKs ready to lose or not knowing what to with it otherwise, are no different from people, who open their mouths for no particular reason.
--
|
Londo Cebb
|
Posted - 2010.08.21 09:37:00 -
[312]
Originally by: Whitehound
Originally by: Shar Tegral
And now you understand all the envy... errr... trolling.
Technically is betting the same as trolling.
Only those with too much ISKs, or with ISKs ready to lose or not knowing what to with it otherwise, are no different from people, who open their mouths for no particular reason.
There is one difference. When betting you have the possibility of winning, when trolling you always lose.
|
Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
|
Posted - 2010.08.21 11:44:00 -
[313]
Edited by: Whitehound on 21/08/2010 11:48:19
Originally by: Londo Cebb
There is one difference. When betting you have the possibility of winning, when trolling you always lose.
Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't a troll the one who always wins?
--
|
Quantessa
DRACONIAN COVENANT
|
Posted - 2010.08.21 13:15:00 -
[314]
What are you even talking about Whitehound? Trolling is not the same as betting. Walk into a betting shop and ask to place a troll on a horse running in the 3.15 at Haymarket and they won't know what you're talking about.
This thread has been an interesting look at the way the market develops in Eve. It has been educational. It seems to imply that the market lands softer than people generally expect, implying in turn that stockpiles are larger than people figure. Of course other factors played a part too.
This was not a troll thread because for those of us who followed it there was interesting information about Eve market economics.
|
Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
|
Posted - 2010.08.21 16:57:00 -
[315]
Originally by: Quantessa
What are you even talking about Whitehound? Trolling is not the same as betting.
Trolling is not identical to betting, but that is not what I said.
--
|
Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
|
Posted - 2010.08.21 20:46:00 -
[316]
Someone is lacking humour, and deleted my bet about the sun going down hard and with a red glow. That is too bad.
So now I bet ... the same or another, possibly humourless person will disregard my latest comment as a discussion of moderation.
--
|
Quantessa
DRACONIAN COVENANT
|
Posted - 2010.08.21 23:47:00 -
[317]
Erm, it's not technically humour if you're the only person who laughs.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.08.22 00:49:00 -
[318]
Well, he feels hurt by the thought people are making bets against possible outcomes of a very complex system, and also about the existence of T2 BPOs. He's sensitive like that. We better not upset him and let him finish his warm milk, then go to bed clutching his safety blanket.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
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Posted - 2010.08.22 07:16:00 -
[319]
Edited by: Whitehound on 22/08/2010 07:19:22
Originally by: Quantessa
Erm, it's not technically humour if you're the only person who laughs.
And: it also counts as humour when it is only you who is not laughing.
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Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
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Posted - 2010.08.22 07:19:00 -
[320]
Edited by: Whitehound on 22/08/2010 07:23:27
Originally by: Akita T
Well, he feels hurt by the thought people are making bets against possible outcomes of a very complex system, and also about the existence of T2 BPOs. He's sensitive like that. We better not upset him and let him finish his warm milk, then go to bed clutching his safety blanket.
No, I do not feel hurt. For one am I disgusted by the length of this thread over a pointless bet, and secondly is it stupid to argue in all seriousness about it.
Are you saying the Earth's rotation is not a complex system?
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Malcanis
Caldari
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
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Posted - 2010.08.22 07:43:00 -
[321]
Originally by: Whitehound
Edited by: Whitehound on 22/08/2010 07:23:27
Originally by: Akita T
Well, he feels hurt by the thought people are making bets against possible outcomes of a very complex system, and also about the existence of T2 BPOs. He's sensitive like that. We better not upset him and let him finish his warm milk, then go to bed clutching his safety blanket.
No, I do not feel hurt. For one am I disgusted by the length of this thread over a pointless bet, and secondly is it stupid to argue in all seriousness about it.
Are you saying the Earth's rotation is not a complex system?
Not too disgusted to do more than anyone else to keep it alive and growing though...
Malcanis' Law: Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of "new players", that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players. |
Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
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Posted - 2010.08.22 07:59:00 -
[322]
Originally by: Malcanis
Not too disgusted to do more than anyone else to keep it alive and growing though...
I am not the topic. The topic is, still, a bet.
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Estel Arador
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Posted - 2010.08.22 09:50:00 -
[323]
At this point I'd like to bet 1B isk that Whitehound likes to hear himself talk just a little bit too much. Any takers?
Free jumpclone service|1092 stations! |
Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
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Posted - 2010.08.22 10:00:00 -
[324]
Originally by: Estel Arador
At this point I'd like to bet 1B isk that Whitehound likes to hear himself talk just a little bit too much. Any takers?
Am I allowed to take part in the bet, too, or am I just the subject of your trolling?
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Hitail
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Posted - 2010.08.22 12:58:00 -
[325]
Is the Whitehound Corporation recruiting? |
Whitehound
The Whitehound Corporation
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Posted - 2010.08.22 13:28:00 -
[326]
Originally by: Hitail
Is the Whitehound Corporation recruiting?
It is open for those who know what they are doing. Make sure you have read the recruitment thread before you apply.
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.09.20 16:33:00 -
[327]
Anyone interested in where the basket price is now?
Would you have won that bet in the long term Akita?
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Tasko Pal
Aliastra
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Posted - 2010.10.09 04:35:00 -
[328]
I happen to be interested in the end of stable insurance and thought it might be worth resurrecting this thread. Using average prices for the Forge region, I get 67 mil for the raven basket. Looks like the decline in the low ends (mex on down) was countered by high ends, particularly nocxium, zydrine, and mega.
The related rokh market is extraordinarily stable. There's almost no variation in trade price (in the Forge) over the past year.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2010.11.27 16:34:00 -
[329]
Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 27/11/2010 16:36:05
Originally by: Akita T
22.07.2010 : 67,416,291 ISK (2.49/4.67/33.63/58.78/137.16/1,041.82/2,375.73) - Thu - JD4 - BET LOST
I find it interesting to note that in this thread the mineral basket price is 69,674,746.85, when this bet was lost with Akita T it was the above mentioned 67,416,291 - but if you take into account the massive spike of Nocxium (Does anyone know why this mineral spiked? I will look into it shortly but would be nice to see other people's opinions) that pretty much doubled the cost of the Nocxium used in the build the Raven mineral basket price is actually 64,758,573.43. As some minerals drop, some others rise, perhaps insurance had less of an effect on the 'basket' than people thought?
Looks like Akita T's reasoning for suspecting a decline was pretty good to me, but a) didn't take enough other factors into account and b) the Mex rise was unexpected/manipulated at the time of the actual bet .. oops.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2011.01.06 04:14:00 -
[330]
whats the current basket price ? (anyone have an easy link for something close to that?)
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Veliria
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Posted - 2011.01.06 08:15:00 -
[331]
One thing I've noticed is that while Zydrine (and Megacyte as well) are going down, Nocxium has finally returned to a meaningful price.
Means Pyro and low-sec ores are no longer the most worthless ores around.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.01.06 12:36:00 -
[332]
Originally by: Veliria
One thing I've noticed is that while Zydrine (and Megacyte as well) are going down, Nocxium has finally returned to a meaningful price.
Means Pyro and low-sec ores are no longer the most worthless ores around.
Not sure why you say 'returned to a meaninful price' when it's basically at a 1 year high?
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