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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.07.19 11:07:00 -
[241]
Might I actually win?!
Anyone care to speculate about the reasons for the prices moving as they are (i.e. up not down)?
1) Hulkageddon III 2) Mass buying of minerals for outposts following PI debacle 3) Miners got bored and went off to do something more interesting like PI (see what I did there?) 4) I bought all the mineral stocks just to win this bet 5) The reduction in mineral supply from loot drop changes outweighed the changes in consumption via insurance fraud (i.e. Cosmoray lied about how many ships he was suiciding and we all believed him) 6) An enormous secret war is going on somewhere that is consuming an astronomical amount of cap ships. 7) Something else I haven't thought of
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Llyandrian
Amarr Livestock Science Exchange
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Posted - 2010.07.19 11:25:00 -
[242]
It's certainly been a lot more exciting than I expected, even if I lose (though I don't think I will now) it's been worth it in entertainment value.
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Serra deZoltral
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Posted - 2010.07.19 11:36:00 -
[243]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
6) An enormous secret war is going on somewhere that is consuming an astronomical amount of cap ships.
like the 4 way FFA in insmother atm? not that secret :D
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laksmi2
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Posted - 2010.07.19 12:46:00 -
[244]
200 m trit per day is about one % of the trit traded in forge. so dont think the cap components have such a large impact. before patch 25% of the minerals i sold came from module recycling. this percentage is now below 5 % (guesstimate) other sources havent filled the gap completely yet.
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Llyandrian
Amarr Livestock Science Exchange
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Posted - 2010.07.19 13:07:00 -
[245]
Originally by: laksmi2 200 m trit per day is about one % of the trit traded in forge. so dont think the cap components have such a large impact. before patch 25% of the minerals i sold came from module recycling. this percentage is now below 5 % (guesstimate) other sources havent filled the gap completely yet.
My numbers put it around 0.5-0.7 % of jita volume, but it doesn't need to be a large percentage of the volume to have an impact. The very nature of supply demand pricing is the market is very close to equilibrium and takes very little to switch from one side of the tipping point to the other.
What matters is how does this effect the over all balance of supply. If the over supply was 1% it might slow down the decline. If the over supply was 0.1 % it would reverse the trend.
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Hulkageddon Jackpot
Amarr Hulkageddon Orphanage
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Posted - 2010.07.19 13:44:00 -
[246]
I dont really think my event has any noticable economic impact beyond what the speculators try to make of it.
Yes, 1700 exhumers and 29 orcas is a lot on a personal level, but on the market level it's not even a blip.
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Macvombat
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Posted - 2010.07.19 13:58:00 -
[247]
Originally by: Hulkageddon Jackpot I dont really think my event has any noticable economic impact beyond what the speculators try to make of it.
Yes, 1700 exhumers and 29 orcas is a lot on a personal level, but on the market level it's not even a blip.
Truth is though, that after the last one (back in january i think?) Hulk prices went to around 200 mill + - 10-20 dependent on location, wether that is speculation or just Hulk producers not being able to keep up i dont know. The Mac has arrived |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.19 14:54:00 -
[248]
Originally by: Macvombat Truth is though, that after the last one (back in january i think?) Hulk prices went to around 200 mill + - 10-20 dependent on location, wether that is speculation or just Hulk producers not being able to keep up i dont know.
That was because of a nasty shortage in reaction capability due to the component need changes, a gap that was since filled, and reaction profitability went back down to pre-Dominion levels, alongside advanced product and T2 component prices.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Umega
Solis Mensa
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Posted - 2010.07.20 07:49:00 -
[249]
Originally by: Hulkageddon Jackpot I dont really think my event has any noticable economic impact beyond what the speculators try to make of it.
Yes, 1700 exhumers and 29 orcas is a lot on a personal level, but on the market level it's not even a blip.
It obviously has some impact. Nothing massive, but certainly something.
Have to keep in mind several aspects of the event..
Yes the 1700 humers and 29 orcas, 800ish barges PLUS all the ships used to gank. The amount of minerals used up to make several thousand gank ships.. all of this while a signifcant percentage of minerals isn't being put into the market because either, miners ain't mining cause ships locked away for 9 days, and they bein' blown up.
Also.. highsec miners tend to turn mission runners for the week. Mod melting ain't quite what it used to be, so the crutch that took place previous geddon's isn't happening at the precentage it did then during this one.
And hopefully several dozen (I hope more, but I'll be pessimistic) macros got exposed, reported, and banned. Hardly much of anything, but always good n helpful long term. Everything adds up.
Not too mention number of failed ganks (yeah, I got a couple ), still creating mineral removal. All this, again.. without as much mod melting influence as before. The tiny little pebble turned into a slightly bigger rock thrown into the market pond this time around.
---------------------------------------- -Treat the EVE Market like you're a pimp and it is your 'employee'.. freely fondle it as you wish and make it pay you for it- |
Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:13:00 -
[250]
Originally by: Akita T
17.07.2010 : 65,220,498 ISK (2.49/4.81/30.52/58.32/123.89/1,001.12/2,264.71) - Sat 18.07.2010 : 65,797,973 ISK (2.49/4.79/31.28/59.95/124.68/1,004.46/2,271.13) - Sun (last day of Hulkageddon-III) 19.07.2010 : 66,333,980 ISK (2.50/4.77/31.80/60.53/128.50/1,006.92/2,294.26) - Mon
3 days above 65m, looks like this next judgement day (tommorow?) could be the last.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 05:11:00 -
[251]
End of 20 july graph. Judgement days are Thursdays (1, 8, 15, 22, 29), and data is gathered by late Thursdays // early Fridays near server date change. But yeah, thanks to a lot of practically unforeseeable factors working together, it sure does look like it will be a loss for me by that time... since it's next to impossible for the moving average to go down enough by then.
Good news for those few that did bet against me
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.21 05:55:00 -
[252]
Looking forward to the post-judgment day mineral drop when all the people betting against you can de-leverage their manipulation investments.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:14:00 -
[253]
Originally by: pmchem Looking forward to the post-judgment day mineral drop when all the people betting against you can de-leverage their manipulation investments.
It would make very little sense to pull off such a large-scale manipulation in order to win some negligible amounts of ISK from a bet (the grand total bet was only 1.6 bil). I seriously doubt the fact this bet was live had much to do with the mineral price evolution.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Samroski
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:25:00 -
[254]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: pmchem Looking forward to the post-judgment day mineral drop when all the people betting against you can de-leverage their manipulation investments.
It would make very little sense to pull off such a large-scale manipulation in order to win some negligible amounts of ISK from a bet (the grand total bet was only 1.6 bil). I seriously doubt the fact this bet was live had much to do with the mineral price evolution.
You are underestimating the forum anti-Akita sentiment :)
The powers-that-be will not openly bet against you, but will invest trillions to rub your nose in the dust; to undermine your prophetic influence on the market.
Looking forward to the crash, post-judgement :)
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:29:00 -
[255]
Ain't that a nice conspiracy theory you have there...
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Casmy Blue
Gallente Power and Water
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:34:00 -
[256]
Originally by: Samroski
You are underestimating the forum anti-Akita sentiment :)
The powers-that-be will not openly bet against you, but will invest trillions to rub your nose in the dust; to undermine your prophetic influence on the market.
It's hard to be this delusional, so I can only assume you're not in that "anti-Akita" sentiment considering how highly you apparently regard her influence on the market.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:41:00 -
[257]
Edited by: Akita T on 21/07/2010 11:41:35
My bet would be he's joking, but that translates poorly in forum-written posts. P.S. The two smileys "could be" a hint
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Casmy Blue
Gallente Power and Water
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Posted - 2010.07.21 11:51:00 -
[258]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 21/07/2010 11:41:35
My bet would be he's joking, but that translates poorly in forum-written posts. P.S. The two smileys "could be" a hint
I will make a snarky-sounding comment here in the spirit of the thread indicating that if you're betting he's kidding, he must be dead serious.
>_>
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zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.07.21 12:16:00 -
[259]
So hows it looking for insurance fraud? are we back up and running yet?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 13:02:00 -
[260]
Originally by: zz01shagsme So hows it looking for insurance fraud? are we back up and running yet?
Not even close, and extremely unlikely to get there any time soon. _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Zea Aestria
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Posted - 2010.07.21 14:45:00 -
[261]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: zz01shagsme So hows it looking for insurance fraud? are we back up and running yet?
Not even close, and extremely unlikely to get there any time soon.
Last I heard (shortly after the deployment of Tyrannis), ~53m ISK was the level at which it would be profitable to acquire a Raven for IER. Anyone have better data than this?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 15:14:00 -
[262]
Originally by: Zea Aestria Last I heard (shortly after the deployment of Tyrannis), ~53m ISK was the level at which it would be profitable to acquire a Raven for IER. Anyone have better data than this?
That's about right. But then again, before the change, a Raven's IER was a bit over 76 mil, yet it was selling for around 75 mil, and the minerals were worth only about 71 mil, so you would need to have the mineral basket hover somewhere around 48 mil ISK for a while WITHOUT CCP making yet another insurance payout adjustment before IER becomes fashionable again.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Casmy Blue
Gallente Power and Water
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Posted - 2010.07.21 15:16:00 -
[263]
Edited by: Casmy Blue on 21/07/2010 15:17:13 Raven insurance payout, last I checked, was 70.8m.
So, you could start blowing them up now and technically you'd be ahead if the mineral basket + insurance was below 70m. 55ish seemed right.
I'm sure there are more enterprising things in which to invest 65m in minerals, or wherever the current basket is.
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Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.07.21 16:06:00 -
[264]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 21/07/2010 11:41:35
My bet would be he's joking, but that translates poorly in forum-written posts. P.S. The two smileys "could be" a hint
I think you're right. So far as I'm concerned, my total wealth is about 10 billion, only about 3 is available.
I cannot influence prices to any extent.
And hey! I like Akita!
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.21 16:37:00 -
[265]
Edited by: Akita T on 21/07/2010 16:39:59
Originally by: Casmy Blue Raven insurance payout, last I checked, was 70.8m. So, you could start blowing them up now and technically you'd be ahead if the mineral basket + insurance was below 70m.
For a ~70.8 payout you'd have to pay roughly ~21.2 premium, and overall back ~49.6 You'd expect a bare minimum of 1 mil profit for your explodey troubles, and another 1 mil profit for the manufacture markup (otherwise it's almost not worth bothering, there are times when Ravens sell even for 4 mil manufacture markup)... so the total mineral cost would have to be somewhere below ~47.6 for this to be worth doing. If the minerals are worth close to or more than ~50 mil, you're actually losing money if you try to do this, even if you take into account the best possible salvage and assume no markup for manufacture and your exploding troubles.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.07.21 17:19:00 -
[266]
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy
And hey! I like Akita!
The real winner here has got to be Uppsy Daisy. Brilliant strategy, I must say
1. Kept a post authored by you on the MD front page for over two months with nearly 30k views, great rep building 2. Won (or will likely win) money but only bet against Akita to get things rolling and 'just for fun' as not to make any enemies 3. Use any anti-akita sentiment to get the deep pockets to influence prices
I joke of course.
Could an Uppsy Daisy IPO dealing with mineral speculation be next?
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laksmi2
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Posted - 2010.07.21 18:56:00 -
[267]
hey mr ishiguro stop buying my shop empty. others want some tasty stuff too.
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
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Posted - 2010.07.21 19:27:00 -
[268]
Originally by: laksmi2 hey mr ishiguro stop buying my shop empty. others want some tasty stuff too.
Out of curiosity, how many times has this happened so far? I tend to lose track when I keep buying out the bottom 10-15 orders for most highends. --- 34.4:1 mineral compression |
laksmi2
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Posted - 2010.07.21 19:54:00 -
[269]
could be i wanted to create some panic and interest in my products. :-) on the other hand i get concerned when sellorder volume goes into the double digit numbers.
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Induc
Amarr
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Posted - 2010.07.21 20:59:00 -
[270]
I haven't really been following this thread, but I got a question. I read somewhere that the base mineral cost calculation had to be manually triggered by CCP. So the question is, has the insurance payouts been adjusting due to falling minerals prices or are they still at the same level as right after the Tyrannis launch?
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