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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.24 00:22:00 -
[271]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
The amount of stock that is 'out there' at any given time may not be known, but the general level can be estimated at don't you think?
either your estimates are horribly low or you don't quite understand what it means that there's that much out there
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.24 01:13:00 -
[272]
Edited by: Turiel Demon on 24/11/2009 01:15:41
Originally by: EvilweaselSA
Originally by: Turiel Demon
The amount of stock that is 'out there' at any given time may not be known, but the general level can be estimated at don't you think?
either your estimates are horribly low or you don't quite understand what it means that there's that much out there
Quite possibly, but just to clarify I was talking about 'stock that can/will appear on the market in a timeframe that would influence the sales in this weekend'. I don't doubt there are massive stockpiles out around the eve universe, but they're not all relevant right now.
Originally by: EvilweaselSA
ok turiel demon, I hinted at this before, but why might someone want to dump neo now?
hint: neo speculation isn't risk-free, if there was more time to dominion I'd be selling right now but since there's only a week and ccp is clearly overloaded I'm not, why would that be
So, we disagree on where Neo is/would be going under certain circumstances, we both have our own lines of reasoning leading to our separate conclusions. Discussion over tbh.
Originally by: EvilweaselSA i have no complaints there's much better people to bounce ideas off in goonswarm
Just made me lol, sorry
Originally by: EvilweaselSA but man are you guys touchy at being called out when your predictions fall flat on their face
I don't see the failed prediction. Really, I don't.
As I read it the prediction goes 'event y will happen in time-frame x unless unlikely condition z is met' followed by condition z being met.
I can see where you're coming from because you have a different view on the likelihood of that condition, namely the big stock being dumped on the market, but I don't see any faulty prediction here.
This is bothering me because there's plenty of faulty prediction out there, I've made plenty, hell even concerning this I'd expected Neo to stabilize at 15 and I thought Technetium would stay at 8-10k throughout this week, those are wrong. I still think Tech will move up to 20K by the end of the week and that may well be wrong. But you're going after an 'oh hai guys market looks like this now!' post as if it were some kind of huge deal, while it was pretty much banter. Don't mess with our banter yo!
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.24 03:37:00 -
[273]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 23:30:35 Hey, I was trolling this thread! Go back to CAOD Goon.
On paper I made 100b isk after the patch.
*edit
Originally by: Turiel Demon [stuff]
Meh...what if you have half a million units? And what if 60 other people have half a million units? Where does that put that decision?
That's a good question, the answer lies partly in the units/day sold that you can see on the market history tab.
If you have half a million units, and there are 100K units on the market with 200K moving per day (not identical, but analogous to the situation we were talking about) then I'd wait and exploit the shortage.
If you have half a million units, and 60 other people have half a million units, it's pretty damn likely that more than 0.66% of the currently available stock waiting to be sold would be on the market - being sold - and so there would be more than 100K on the market. Indeed, if 200k was moving per day and there were 30m units unused out there I'd expect the price would be somewhere closer to 50isk/unit.
The amount of stock that is 'out there' at any given time may not be known, but the general level can be estimated at don't you think?
Thats exactly what I am saying, that only a tiny fraction is on the market now.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.24 17:24:00 -
[274]
Originally by: Tesal
Thats exactly what I am saying, that only a tiny fraction is on the market now.
You and the weasel both, apparently. It strikes me that were there gargantuan unused stockpiles lying around the common cupidity of the typical eve player would have caused more than just the occasional person to drop their few million units, considering the 400% rise in value over the last two months.
I can imagine if some alliances with sufficient hold over their member's previously minor moon mining ops have put an embargo on Neo and the similar rising moonmins for the time being, that could cause such stockpiles to build up; I don't know enough about alliance moon control to comment much on that, but I would certainly be interested to know if this has happened.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.24 19:27:00 -
[275]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal
Thats exactly what I am saying, that only a tiny fraction is on the market now.
You and the weasel both, apparently. It strikes me that were there gargantuan unused stockpiles lying around the common cupidity of the typical eve player would have caused more than just the occasional person to drop their few million units, considering the 400% rise in value over the last two months.
I can imagine if some alliances with sufficient hold over their member's previously minor moon mining ops have put an embargo on Neo and the similar rising moonmins for the time being, that could cause such stockpiles to build up; I don't know enough about alliance moon control to comment much on that, but I would certainly be interested to know if this has happened.
Maybe I am just talking trash to lower the price so I can buy in. You will have to decide what the truth is for yourself.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.24 22:58:00 -
[276]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal
Thats exactly what I am saying, that only a tiny fraction is on the market now.
You and the weasel both, apparently. It strikes me that were there gargantuan unused stockpiles lying around the common cupidity of the typical eve player would have caused more than just the occasional person to drop their few million units, considering the 400% rise in value over the last two months.
I can imagine if some alliances with sufficient hold over their member's previously minor moon mining ops have put an embargo on Neo and the similar rising moonmins for the time being, that could cause such stockpiles to build up; I don't know enough about alliance moon control to comment much on that, but I would certainly be interested to know if this has happened.
people with moons tend to be actual spaceholding alliances and we have all been completely aware of what neo was going to do since that idiot csm leaked it everybody who is anybody is stockpiling it
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.24 23:31:00 -
[277]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA people with moons tend to be actual spaceholding alliances and we have all been completely aware of what neo was going to do since that idiot csm leaked it everybody who is anybody is stockpiling it
On the other hand, technetium has been in the public eye only since 3 weeks ago...
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We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.25 02:07:00 -
[278]
Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 25/11/2009 02:08:00
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: EvilweaselSA people with moons tend to be actual spaceholding alliances and we have all been completely aware of what neo was going to do since that idiot csm leaked it everybody who is anybody is stockpiling it
On the other hand, technetium has been in the public eye only since 3 weeks ago...
Right, though given how the CSM thing went down I'd imagine technetium was an unintended effect while balancing neo was intended. However you're correct people definitely haven't been stockpiling that for nearly as long so the amount of speculative stockpiles is probably a fraction of neo (plus, many people have suspected for a while neo and thulium would get buffed and have been mining and stockpiling it)
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.25 13:28:00 -
[279]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 25/11/2009 02:08:00
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: EvilweaselSA people with moons tend to be actual spaceholding alliances and we have all been completely aware of what neo was going to do since that idiot csm leaked it everybody who is anybody is stockpiling it
On the other hand, technetium has been in the public eye only since 3 weeks ago...
Right, though given how the CSM thing went down I'd imagine technetium was an unintended effect while balancing neo was intended. However you're correct people definitely haven't been stockpiling that for nearly as long so the amount of speculative stockpiles is probably a fraction of neo (plus, many people have suspected for a while neo and thulium would get buffed and have been mining and stockpiling it)
I feel really bad for poor little Thulium
Thanks for clearing up the reasoning btw, I don't have much of an idea on how moon-mining operations are centralised, I took it that minor mins like Neo would just be individually mined.
A while back we'd talked about the under-reporting of certain moon-minerals in Akita's first few models, and how that had then been taken that into account for the later models.
I actually adjusted the figures myself taking the under-reporting figures for those regions and applying them to the eve-wide moon list instead of just adding the unreported moons like Akita had which produced this:
Basically the same as Akita's with Tech way in the lead.
But while doing so realised that tech was not present in these regions, so the under-reporting value couldn't be calculated. I choose to take the average of the under-reporting factors of platinum and chromium as a rough estimate, which produced this:
A rather more balanced situation, with Neo being in the lead but by a far narrower relative margin
Even then, as we saw in the price difference between prom and dyspro, just a couple of % can already make a huge difference.
Hence, I have about equal stocks of Tech and Neo, and that seems a fairly safe bet to me
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.25 13:46:00 -
[280]
You posted the same image link twice...
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We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.25 16:51:00 -
[281]
Originally by: Akita T You posted the same image link twice...
So i did, serves me right for not checking
Correction edited in.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.25 22:06:00 -
[282]
Edited by: Akita T on 25/11/2009 22:13:04
Originally by: Turiel Demon I don't know if you'd explained it before, but could you tell me how the 'values adjusted for rarity' and the derived percentages etc. in your spreadsheets work?
Well, on one hand you have the total amounts used for each moon mineral (derived from number of items, then components, then reactions) ; on the other hand, you have the total (maximum potential) production capability of moons in EVE, based on estimated number of moons. Dividing the total used by the total exploitable results in a percentage of usage for that particular material in that particular market. We further extrapolate that usage ratios in other markets are similar (well, not quite, since in Amarr space you'll get slightly more Amarr ships and laser weapons used, but that only really influences carbide usage, so in other words only slight adjustments to chromium/cadmium/platinum/vanadium usage, and the inaccuracies in moon counts are much more likely higher than this particular approximation) - so we pick the HIGHEST usage rate out of all moon minerals so far to determine the major bottleneck (since production can't continue when all of that material is used up and all other moon minerals just "have to wait" unused partially), and then all others get adjusted accordingly. Simple, really
P.S. The "rarity autocalc" section is mostly "legacy data" from the earlier models (similar functionality but different approach), and only used for the alchemy calculations section right now (how much gets reacted into alchemy on average most likely, if at all - the closer the relative scarcity adjusted for individual rarity on material usage post-alchemy of the replacement mineral gets to that of the replaced material, the less gets reacted in alchemy - it's a guesstimation mostly, anyway).
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.26 02:11:00 -
[283]
Someone went on a spree
Technetium - 27k neodymium - 20k
High volume on carbides |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.26 02:17:00 -
[284]
Originally by: EvilCheez Someone went on a spree
Technetium - 27k neodymium - 20k
High volume on carbides
Indeed, wouldn't surprise me if exactly the same thing happened as did last time Tech spiked though - people falling over themselves to cash-out starting a stampede downwards from the new level, only to end up lower than it was before. We are a good bit closer to Dominion than last time though (I think it was the 13th?) so it'll be interesting to see what happens. |
Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.26 02:21:00 -
[285]
i bet my 2 waffles that tech will be in the 10 to 12k range by tomorrow morning. |
Juliette Leblanc
Gallente Federal Navy Academy
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Posted - 2009.11.26 06:19:00 -
[286]
Not sure if this is why, but yesterday this thread was "mentioned" on Kugu_su_en's board (cannot put the full name in because it's still censored, lol) where a huge lot of 0.0 people hang for political updates. Quote: And now for something completely different....
Technetium. I'm glad people approach EVE with the same optimism they might when buying lottery tickets or betting at the track.
Shout out to Akita T and the rest of that merry band of manipulators whom aren't quite so visible.
This may have brought some extra buyers from "the other kind of PvP" camp (the one you play with only 2 to 8 guns at a time, in groups).
Meanwhile both tech and neo are beginning to see small buy orders hanging at 15k, with the real support still in the 10k region and lowest sells still in the 20k+.
Originally by: CCP Prism X In New Eden, EVE wins you.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.26 07:19:00 -
[287]
Originally by: Julian Koll i bet my 2 waffles that tech will be in the 10 to 12k range by tomorrow morning.
Highly unlikely. Buy orders for both Neodymium and Technetium are plodding along merrily above 10k now, so it seems those days are over.
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Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.26 08:07:00 -
[288]
Edited by: xylopia on 26/11/2009 08:08:46 It's only a couple of days away from Dominion, (actually next Tuesday) so here comes what I made. I wrote this sheet based on "Aaron Nielsen" work ( thanks to him for sharing.) about two months ago when ppl were crazy on sylamic fibers. I only collected t2 ship data from TQ and Sisi over a weekend, and transaction # from jita (forge region) from 07/01/09~07/14/09 to have very conservative value ( when ferrogel price was it's highest point). Plus no alchemy was taken into account. So it might prone to error but it turns out to be decent after all.
*All comp ME is perfect, and ship ME is 0 except marauders. (-1)
Anyway, since Akita has throughly gone over all the gists of the patch, there isn't much to find from my sheet, except,
1) adjusted value percentage of advanced material 2) adjusted value percentage of raw material ( actually you want to look at akita's work for this one. although the end result is very close to his, I just simply used CCP's base price and adjusted rarity value to come up w/ the final adj value %. His work actually digs deeper to find out even bottlenecks.) *You can call me slacker 2) Each t2 ship's component, advanced material, processed material, raw material break down, b4/after dominion, so you know what price would be like for your favorite ones after the patch.
here it comes http://dl.eve-files.com/media/corp/xylopia/Dominion_T2_Ship_Build_Material.zip
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.26 08:16:00 -
[289]
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Julian Koll i bet my 2 waffles that tech will be in the 10 to 12k range by tomorrow morning.
Highly unlikely. Buy orders for both Neodymium and Technetium are plodding along merrily above 10k now, so it seems those days are over.
Someone just jumped in and bought stuff up to jack the price, cleared the Tech sell orders to 23.5k with 10.1k buy support, and cleared Neo to 17k and put in a blocking order in the buy side at 15k with 10.1k support below that. Transparent manipulation in my opinion. I don't think this price level is rational myself given the stocks out there, and the probability that Tech moons are under counted.
In my opinion, Tech/Neo, best case scenario acts like Cadmium with the introduction of Alchemy. Its a good 6 month climb to the top, assuming everything people are saying is true, and I am assuming its not true.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.26 08:30:00 -
[290]
http://www.eveonline.com/externalLink.aspx?l=http%3A%2F%2Fdl%2Eeve%2Dfiles%2Ecom%2Fmedia%2Fcorp%2Fxylopia%2FDominion%5FT2%5FShip%5FBuild%5FMaterial%2Ezip
sorry, I'm a little confused. Was I supposed to enter data and where? I'm getting mostly "#NAME?" in almost every field.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.26 09:50:00 -
[291]
Originally by: Tesal Transparent manipulation in my opinion. I don't think this price level is rational myself given the stocks out there, and the probability that Tech moons are under counted.
Somehow you guys seem to believe that if you term something a "manipulation", then it's not really happening, as if the market we see on our screen is not the actual market, but a derivate market in a tangential, manipulated universe.
With this I mean to say that it is supply and demand that decides the prices, and while a) you must realise that orders put up for manipulation purposes are also demand, b) massive amounts that people hold in stock are not supply if those people do not unload them on the market. Many of those with stocks may have a higher bar than 20k for when they wish to sell, and others are oblivious to what is going on.
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Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.26 11:34:00 -
[292]
Originally by: EvilCheez sorry, I'm a little confused. Was I supposed to enter data and where? I'm getting mostly "#NAME?" in almost every field.
My bad. I've updated to excel 97 format and added Gif image version. You might need to lower down your macro security to medium and enable macro.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.26 13:02:00 -
[293]
I was just taking a look at the dotlan numbers, trying to figure out at what end of the under-reporting spectrum it lies, i.e. are there less than 500 total moons for a bottleneck at Tech, or are there over 600 for the bottleneck to be Neo. So bear with me here:
Geminate is a region that only has 6% of the moons on dotalan, but of those that are known about 1/3 are Tech. Now, with a total of I think about 700 moons as many as 200 could theoretically/statistically be Technetium, and the same goes for Fade.
Pure-blind, Venal, Deklein and Vale of the Silent however all have 75-100% maps and only venal has 74 Tech moons, with the others having between 25-40 each. In fact... there are NO regions with more than 80 of any one kind of R32, which Tech is.
This indicates to me that the four 'low report %' regions with Tech - Fade, Geminate, Great Wildlands, Tenal - can at an absolute maximum have another 320 Tech moons, which is just about enough to equalise it with Neodymium.
Anyone with access to more detailed moon-mapping projects of these regions please help us with this if it's not too super sikrit.
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Verite Rendition
Caldari F.R.E.E. Explorer Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.11.26 14:42:00 -
[294]
Originally by: Turiel Demon I was just taking a look at the dotlan numbers, trying to figure out at what end of the under-reporting spectrum it lies, i.e. are there less than 500 total moons for a bottleneck at Tech, or are there over 600 for the bottleneck to be Neo. So bear with me here:
Geminate is a region that only has 6% of the moons on dotalan, but of those that are known about 1/3 are Tech. Now, with a total of I think about 700 moons as many as 200 could theoretically/statistically be Technetium, and the same goes for Fade.
Pure-blind, Venal, Deklein and Vale of the Silent however all have 75-100% maps and only venal has 74 Tech moons, with the others having between 25-40 each. In fact... there are NO regions with more than 80 of any one kind of R32, which Tech is.
This indicates to me that the four 'low report %' regions with Tech - Fade, Geminate, Great Wildlands, Tenal - can at an absolute maximum have another 320 Tech moons, which is just about enough to equalise it with Neodymium.
Anyone with access to more detailed moon-mapping projects of these regions please help us with this if it's not too super sikrit.
There are 9 Technetium moons in Fade. I'm not going to tell you how many there are in Geminate, but it's not nearly as big as you'd assume. ---- FREE Explorer Lead Megalomanic EVE Null-Sec Player Influence Map http://dl1.eve-files.com/media/corp/Veritefw/FWinf |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.26 15:17:00 -
[295]
Originally by: Akita T Just wait until the patch actually hits... THEN we'll see some nifty chaos.
Absolutely right!
One way or the other
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killa mutha
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Posted - 2009.11.26 18:57:00 -
[296]
Edited by: killa mutha on 26/11/2009 18:59:56 I have no interest in mining these moons but,I do have a interest in pewpewing the guys that do mine then. What do you guys think these moons will average out at after patch hits and the major manipulation is done, and ofcouse the giant stock piles of of the former worthless moon gold
Should i start getting warp ins on cobalt and vanadium moons
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.26 21:31:00 -
[297]
Originally by: Juliette Leblanc Not sure if this is why, but yesterday this thread was "mentioned" on Kugu_su_en's board (cannot put the full name in because it's still censored, lol) where a huge lot of 0.0 people hang for political updates. Quote: Technetium. I'm glad people approach EVE with the same optimism they might when buying lottery tickets or betting at the track. Shout out to Akita T and the rest of that merry band of manipulators whom aren't quite so visible.
I can only LOL at that.
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We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Tornicks
Caldari Maelstrom Crew
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Posted - 2009.11.27 00:57:00 -
[298]
Is there some kind of analysis over the prediction of the Tritanium price in Dominion in any thread? I searched some threads but haven't found such. Would be grateful for help.
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fmercury
Club Bear HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2009.11.27 09:16:00 -
[299]
Edited by: fmercury on 27/11/2009 09:16:03 The price of tech/neo has increased 15-30x, but fullerides/fernite carbide haven't gone up by more than 50%, what gives?
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.27 11:18:00 -
[300]
Originally by: fmercury Edited by: fmercury on 27/11/2009 09:16:03 The price of tech/neo has increased 15-30x, but fullerides/fernite carbide haven't gone up by more than 50%, what gives?
answered in-game
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