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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.04 00:38:00 -
[421]
Edited by: Mahke on 04/12/2009 00:45:21
Originally by: Turiel Demon Tech and Plat and all their products are crashing now, they're following Neo down into oblivion. We were wrong, so... so wrong...
At this point I think it would be best if we all tried to sell our stocks. In fact, because of our faulty advice, I feel it is only fair if Akita, me, and others involved in this massive market deception take responsibility, bite the bullet and offer to buy Tech from you at 5k/unit. It's a lot more than you'll get by the end of the week, and you likely won't be able to offload much by then, just look how quickly Neo went south.
You wish people sell to you in bulk @ 5k
I got mostly out before the patch to guarentee my profits because I can't log in very much over the next few weeks to actively manage (and because I wanted to shift from heavy neo, light tech to heavy tech, low neo, but tech was too high for me to feel safe buying it from sells, and my buys got .01'ed to point of not filling), but, if it goes that low I will sink 5+bil into it without hesitation.
edit: caveat, havent logged in to check markets for a day or two so everything I say atm, giant grain of salt
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.04 00:48:00 -
[422]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Tech and Plat and all their products are crashing now, they're following Neo down into oblivion. We were wrong, so... so wrong...
At this point I think it would be best if we all tried to sell our stocks. In fact, because of our faulty advice, I feel it is only fair if Akita, me, and others involved in this massive market deception take responsibility, bite the bullet and offer to buy Tech from you at 5k/unit. It's a lot more than you'll get by the end of the week, and you likely won't be able to offload much by then, just look how quickly Neo went south.
You laugh now, you will cry later.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.04 01:47:00 -
[423]
Originally by: Tesal
Originally by: Turiel Demon silliness concerning Tech
You laugh now, you will cry later.
What's wrong with you? You seem genuinely upset by Tech doing well, for most of us who got on early enough it is genuinely impossible to lose ISK on it now with how much stock-recycling has already been possible.
Will we be disappointed if the profits only total a few tens of billions rather than hundreds? Sure, but I don't think tears will be forthcoming
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.04 02:03:00 -
[424]
Originally by: Turiel Demon I feel it is only fair if Akita, me, and others involved in this massive market deception take responsibility, bite the bullet and offer to buy Tech from you at 5k/unit
Being the overly generous guy that I am, I will buy tech back from the pour souls at a whopping 7.5K.
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Juliette Leblanc
Gallente Federal Navy Academy
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Posted - 2009.12.04 02:58:00 -
[425]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev I will buy tech back from the pour souls at a whopping 7.5K.
They would really be pouring it into your stock.
Originally by: CCP Prism X In New Eden, EVE wins you.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.04 07:13:00 -
[426]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal
Originally by: Turiel Demon silliness concerning Tech
You laugh now, you will cry later.
What's wrong with you? You seem genuinely upset by Tech doing well, for most of us who got on early enough it is genuinely impossible to lose ISK on it now with how much stock-recycling has already been possible.
Will we be disappointed if the profits only total a few tens of billions rather than hundreds? Sure, but I don't think tears will be forthcoming
What you talking about, I said it would be 10-15k.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.04 14:09:00 -
[427]
Technetium used to be the 3rd most valuable moon mineral before promethium/dysprosium spiked like hell roughly one year ago, then it became the 5th most valuable one... which means most 0.0 alliances would have been mining most of it and stockpiling large quantities for the past year or two.
Going from 60% usage with dysprosium as bottleneck to double the previous usage with it being the bottleneck certainly won't flip the prices instantly, since the stockpile is quite big - as soon as prices jump up a bit, enough people feel like liquidating some of their stocks, which keeps prices from going up more too fast. Almost the same reasoning for neodymium, just at a lower "intensity".
Right now, we are seeing insane T2 prices, which WON'T allow high consumption of moongoo. These high prices are due partially to the tech/neo derived components being already too high in price, while the prom/dysp ones nowhere down enough... and the dyspro/prom crash is a prerequisite for everything, and for that alone we'll have to wait a couple of weeks. Before we'll start seeing technetium at very high prices, we'll first be seeing T2 ships at insanely low prices, then slowly stabilizing. And we'll have to wait at least 2 months for that, maybe longer.
It could very well be half a year to 9 months before you see technetium at over 100k, and more than a year before it reaches insane prices. And all of that assuming CCP doesn't do anything about it before then, which they probably will. Still, 30k-50k per unit by February-March is nothing too unexpected.
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Dr Bernard
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Posted - 2009.12.04 20:52:00 -
[428]
Edited by: Dr Bernard on 04/12/2009 20:55:29 Nice report - there is a bug though, you have Tungsten Carbide using Chromium instead of Platinum. This means the raw material usage % changes with Plat 12.3% and Chro 9.07%.
I picked this up after my own analysis. My figures were largely in agreement except I saw a slight shift away from rarity 64's towards commons.
My figures were based on an estimate of all T2 ship sales in Jita during 1 day. No accounting for modules. I assume perfect production using mostly T2 bpos, 25% invention (as per Q2 e-blog?).
I was most interested in moon counts required to support the daily demand to see how much pressure exists on null-sec moons. Here are the results...
Moon count - (total empire) - material % - raw material
275- (xx) - 5.11%Atmospheric gases 870- (xx) - 16.17%Evaporite deposits 286- (xx) - 5.30%Hydrocarbons 880- (xx) - 16.36%Silicates 191- (1039) - 3.55%Cobalt 121- (264) - 2.25%Scandium 211- (418) - 3.92%Titanium 139- (277) - 2.58%Tungsten 262- (328) - 4.86%Cadmium 194- (166) - 3.59%Vanadium 506- (225) - 9.40%Chromium 645- (270) - 11.99%Platinum 48- (112) - 0.89%Caesium 231- (34) - 4.28%Technetium 73- (60) - 1.35%Hafnium 164- (35) - 3.04%Mercury 75- (9) - 1.39%Promethium 61- (14) - 1.13%Dysprosium 145- (28) - 2.69%Neodymium 9- (14) - 0.16%Thulium
Edited for formatting |
Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.04 21:49:00 -
[429]
Originally by: Dr Bernard Edited by: Dr Bernard on 04/12/2009 21:23:58 Edited by: Dr Bernard on 04/12/2009 20:55:29 Nice report - there is a bug though, you have Tungsten Carbide using Chromium instead of Platinum. This means the raw material usage % changes with Plat 12.3% and Chro 9.07%.
Edit: my mistake you already corrected this - I didn't read the whole thread yet
I picked this up after my own analysis. My figures were largely in agreement except I saw a slight shift away from rarity 64's towards commons.
My figures were based on an estimate of all T2 ship sales in Jita during 1 day. No accounting for modules. I assume perfect production using mostly T2 bpos, 25% invention (as per Q2 e-blog?).
I was most interested in moon counts required to support the daily demand to see how much pressure exists on null-sec moons. Here are the results...
Moon count - (total empire) - material % - raw material
275- (xx) - 5.11%Atmospheric gases 870- (xx) - 16.17%Evaporite deposits 286- (xx) - 5.30%Hydrocarbons 880- (xx) - 16.36%Silicates 191- (1039) - 3.55%Cobalt 121- (264) - 2.25%Scandium 211- (418) - 3.92%Titanium 139- (277) - 2.58%Tungsten 262- (328) - 4.86%Cadmium 194- (166) - 3.59%Vanadium 506- (225) - 9.40%Chromium 645- (270) - 11.99%Platinum 48- (112) - 0.89%Caesium 231- (34) - 4.28%Technetium 73- (60) - 1.35%Hafnium 164- (35) - 3.04%Mercury 75- (9) - 1.39%Promethium 61- (14) - 1.13%Dysprosium 145- (28) - 2.69%Neodymium 9- (14) - 0.16%Thulium
Edited for formatting
Why not just use Dotlan?
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Dr Bernard
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Posted - 2009.12.04 21:55:00 -
[430]
I used Dotlan for the empire moon counts. The numbers here are estimates of the build requirement of all T2 ships in Jita on 1 day. Dotlan cannot provide this. My point was to validate all the data that Akita T has provided.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.04 22:59:00 -
[431]
Edited by: Tesal on 04/12/2009 23:00:55
Originally by: Dr Bernard I used Dotlan for the empire moon counts. The numbers here are estimates of the build requirement of all T2 ships in Jita on 1 day. Dotlan cannot provide this. My point was to validate all the data that Akita T has provided.
Empire moon counts are a smaller part of the pie, especially for low ends in determining the total value of a market. In 0.0 you can get an ice bonus with Sov which buffs R4, R8 and R16 a somewhat I understand. A significant portion of reactions are also done in 0.0. Plugging in empire moons really doesn't give you a full picture. If we had certainty on this, there would not be speculation and volatility would be greatly reduced. *On moon count demand and supply that is*
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Kalrand
Charles Ponzi School of Business GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.04 23:06:00 -
[432]
Originally by: Tesal Edited by: Tesal on 04/12/2009 23:00:55
Originally by: Dr Bernard I used Dotlan for the empire moon counts. The numbers here are estimates of the build requirement of all T2 ships in Jita on 1 day. Dotlan cannot provide this. My point was to validate all the data that Akita T has provided.
Empire moon counts are a smaller part of the pie, especially for low ends in determining the total value of a market. In 0.0 you can get an ice bonus with Sov which buffs R4, R8 and R16 a somewhat I understand. A significant portion of reactions are also done in 0.0. Plugging in empire moons really doesn't give you a full picture. If we had certainty on this, there would not be speculation and volatility would be greatly reduced. *On moon count demand and supply that is*
R4's and R8's are rarely profitable to mine alone. Many R16s aren't. Until recently some R64's weren't.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.04 23:10:00 -
[433]
Originally by: Kalrand R4's and R8's are rarely profitable to mine alone. Many R16s aren't. Until recently some R64's weren't.
Thulium still isn't, and won't be, as its usage was lowered (as if it wouldn't have been low enough already).
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.04 23:41:00 -
[434]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Kalrand R4's and R8's are rarely profitable to mine alone. Many R16s aren't. Until recently some R64's weren't.
Thulium still isn't, and won't be, as its usage was lowered (as if it wouldn't have been low enough already).
Out of curiosity, was the thulium price prior to the pre-dominion chaos reflecting of use versus effort mining/supply or purely set by people stockpiling massive quantities in the hope that maybe someday somehow it would get used more.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.04 23:42:00 -
[435]
Thulium was traded in very small amounts, price was erratic, and prior to the first announcements on Dominion it barely ever broke past 2000 per unit.
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Kalrand
Charles Ponzi School of Business GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.04 23:49:00 -
[436]
I think Thulium is still in the ~1600 range. Which is profitable to mine.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.05 02:02:00 -
[437]
Originally by: Kalrand I think Thulium is still in the ~1600 range. Which is profitable to mine.
Yeah, but not very profitable... roughly 115 mil/month minus POS fuel costs, on top of the initial structure cost and risks to get attacked, not really that great.
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We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.05 02:03:00 -
[438]
Never mind the fact that it'll be down to 1000/unit again within a month, probably lower.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.07 16:15:00 -
[439]
Question: Why is titanium carbide moving faster than the other 3 races of plates?
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Jalum Krayal
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Posted - 2009.12.07 18:28:00 -
[440]
Originally by: BlondieBC Question: Why is titanium carbide moving faster than the other 3 races of plates?
My guess: Titanium Diborite is the Caldari racial plate, and so more demand to build Golems than the other Marauders, for instance.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.08 01:16:00 -
[441]
You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2009.12.08 02:44:00 -
[442]
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
So when do you post your "how i did it" thread?
SKUNK (o)
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.08 03:23:00 -
[443]
Originally by: Le Skunk So when do you post your "how i did it" thread?
Well, the prerequisite would be having done it first, no ?
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We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.08 05:45:00 -
[444]
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
Its not as high as I'd like it to be, but even now its still at 4x the price it was when I cleaned out Jita after reading that devblog.
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Count MonteCarlo
Genos Occidere HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2009.12.08 08:25:00 -
[445]
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
He also bought Thulium so my guess is that he got very limited information from CCP which most likely implied that the other r64's were getting boosted while the others nerfed, or something like that
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Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel.
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Posted - 2009.12.08 08:56:00 -
[446]
Originally by: BlondieBC Question: Why is titanium carbide moving faster than the other 3 races of plates?
I didn't want to do this but...
BECAUSE OF FALCON.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.08 09:38:00 -
[447]
Originally by: Count MonteCarlo
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
He also bought Thulium so my guess is that he got very limited information from CCP which most likely implied that the other r64's were getting boosted while the others nerfed, or something like that
To be fair, even simply hearing "Neodymium is getting buffed" would be (and was!) enough to get me to buy Thulium, just on the logically sound hedge that if you're going to buff one nigh worthless R64, you'd buff another.
In hindsight, I should have had on my "think like CCP" hat, but hey. At least I still sold it at a not-loss.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.09 17:37:00 -
[448]
Well... it's been quite a day for Tech and Neo both so far, wonder if plat will spike too
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SunGod RA
Endless Destruction
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Posted - 2009.12.09 21:28:00 -
[449]
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
'tis funny, but not as funny as those who panic-sold below 10k =P _
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Melleia
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Posted - 2009.12.09 23:00:00 -
[450]
Originally by: SunGod RA
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
'tis funny, but not as funny as those who panic-sold below 10k =P
I'm not complaining :) Im making a killing off them.
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