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The most detailed Dominion market analysis so far ( BIG ! )

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Quince Dupree Gallente H A V O C Against ALL Authorities	Posted - 2009.12.01 22:11:00 - [391] Lets talk about this chomium moons I have about 6 towers up on them atm, are they gonna even break even on fuel?
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.12.01 22:17:00 - [392] Originally by: Quince Dupree Lets talk about this chomium moons I have about 6 towers up on them atm, are they gonna even break even on fuel? Chromium pretty much isn't going to change its level of demand... you'll be fine, just like before.
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2009.12.01 22:17:00 - [393] Originally by: Quince Dupree Lets talk about this chomium moons I have about 6 towers up on them atm, are they gonna even break even on fuel? What size tower are you using? Small definitely, large probably, but why would you use a large if you were just mining?
Quince Dupree Gallente H A V O C Against ALL Authorities	Posted - 2009.12.01 22:26:00 - [394] med towers I also have a few platium so i hope something works out :(
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.12.01 22:30:00 - [395] Edited by: Akita T on 01/12/2009 22:31:05 Chromium price should stabilize at roughly the same level (possibly a bit lower) it had near the peak alchemy usage time period - sylramic fiber usage was indeed cut PER PLATE, but plate usage in general and Caldari carbide usage in particular was drastically increased, so overall, about as much as used to go into alchemy should go now into additional T2 components. So, yes, unless your tower magically eats up well over 200 mil in fuel per month, you should still be able to make some semblance of revenue off of those moons even if all you have is a chromium extractor. Platinum price should actually increase heavily in Dominion, even above Chromium price. So no problems there either. _ We are recruiting \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper
Natasha Nikolaev	Posted - 2009.12.01 22:53:00 - [396] I'm at work, is anything interesting happening?
corestwo Goonfleet Investment Banking GoonSwarm	Posted - 2009.12.01 22:56:00 - [397] Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev I'm at work, is anything interesting happening? Neodymium & nanotransistors fairly stable at 17.2k and 3400 (last I checked); Technetium held at ~24000 and then people started selling it and undercutting in their typically idiotic fashion. When I logged out it was at about 19k.
Tesal	Posted - 2009.12.02 00:23:00 - [398] Tech sell orders have over a million units above 22k and 16 sell orders in the past day. Buy orders are held up by a single pre patch 256k unit blocking order at 17.8k per unit. Once that order clears the next level of support is at 11-12k. Oh god. Somebody better jump in and prop up the price. Hurry. Do it now. never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.12.02 00:39:00 - [399] Originally by: Tesal Tech sell orders have over a million units above 22k and 16 sell orders in the past day. Buy orders are held up by a single pre patch 256k unit blocking order at 17.8k per unit. Once that order clears the next level of support is at 11-12k. Oh god. Somebody better jump in and prop up the price. Hurry. Do it now. Ehm no? some of those 12.200 ones are mine Nothing to see here, Tech is just going down, it's normal market presures, there's no real demand for Tech it's all speculation!
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.12.02 02:03:00 - [400] Originally by: Tesal Tech sell orders [...] past day [...] Buy orders are held up by [...] the next level of support [...] Oh god [...] better jump in [...] You know as well as I do that prices this week and probably next week too will be completely chaotic, snapping both ways on a nearly daily basis, with total mayhem during the weekend(s). _ We are recruiting \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper

Melleia	Posted - 2009.12.02 02:48:00 - [401] By chance, has anyone had any problems with disappearing assets? I had a 24 hour sell order up and went to check it after the patch. It's off my Orders listing, my transaction history doesn't show that it sold, it's not in my hanger, nor is it in my deliveries. What the hell?
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.12.02 02:51:00 - [402] Originally by: Melleia I had a 24 hour sell order up and went to check it after the patch. It's off my Orders listing, my transaction history doesn't show that it sold, it's not in my hanger, nor is it in my deliveries. This is the expected behaviour of expired orders. The goods will appear in your hangar after the next downtime. _ We are recruiting \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper
Melleia	Posted - 2009.12.02 02:55:00 - [403] Originally by: Akita T Originally by: Melleia I had a 24 hour sell order up and went to check it after the patch. It's off my Orders listing, my transaction history doesn't show that it sold, it's not in my hanger, nor is it in my deliveries. This is the expected behaviour of expired orders. The goods will appear in your hangar after the next downtime. Well damnit...I was hoping to unload some Tech before prices dropped and buy when they did :( Oh well, it's a cycle, it'll happen again.
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.12.02 14:08:00 - [404] Originally by: Melleia Oh well, it's a cycle, it'll happen again. Just make sure you don't flip your stock in the wrong part of each "cycle" Also, not so much cycles per se, but oscillations around an increasing price trend line. _ We are recruiting \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper
Dretzle Omega Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.12.02 14:20:00 - [405] Originally by: Melleia Oh well, it's a cycle, it'll happen again. "All this has happened before, and all this will happen again."
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.12.02 15:18:00 - [406] Poor Neodymium. Soooooo much stock out there, stockpiled in case it was the bottleneck. it'll all hit the markets over the next few months I expect - glad I could unload mine on 13-15k buy orders
Gella Darru	Posted - 2009.12.02 17:33:00 - [407] is it wrong of me to giggle at the people selling off their technetium at 19k isk because they are in such a hurry for a smallish profit?
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2009.12.02 17:53:00 - [408] Originally by: Gella Darru is it wrong of me to giggle at the people selling off their technetium at 19k isk because they are in such a hurry for a smallish profit? Yes, but not for the reason you think.
Kanatta Jing	Posted - 2009.12.02 18:47:00 - [409] Occures to me that a lot of market reserve will have to sell before market pressure will change sufficiently for minning behaviour to change enough to reach the Technetium bottle neck. Namely a small gold rush in each of these sufficient to prompt people to actually set up more POS's evaporite deposites Silicates chromium platinum Atmospheric Hydro Carbons Titanium Until more of all of these minerals is mined the demand for Tech is either artificial or simply wisely invested for a couple months down the road..
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.12.02 19:47:00 - [410] Originally by: Kanatta Jing And with the Market hub bub the Tech reserves will take a while to fully deplete. I'd say two to three months for a noticeably higher stable Technetium price, and anywhere from six to nine months for the prices to go REALLY high. _ We are recruiting \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper

Melleia	Posted - 2009.12.02 23:11:00 - [411] Originally by: Gella Darru is it wrong of me to giggle at the people selling off their technetium at 19k isk because they are in such a hurry for a smallish profit? Sold @ 22k p/u, and had a buy order @ 15k p/u, what's the problem? Make a ton of cash and keep my stockpile up at the same time \o/
Tesal	Posted - 2009.12.03 09:24:00 - [412] Originally by: Kanatta Jing Edited by: Kanatta Jing on 02/12/2009 19:12:03 Occures to me that a lot of market reserve will have to sell before market pressure will change sufficiently for minning behaviour to change enough to reach the Technetium bottle neck. Namely a small gold rush in each of these sufficient to prompt people to actually set up more POS's evaporite deposites Silicates chromium platinum Atmospheric Hydro Carbons Titanium Until more of all of these minerals is mined the demand for Tech is either artificial or simply wisely invested for a couple months down the road.. And with the Market hub bub the Tech reserves will take a while to fully deplete. Reaction POS can also mine, that is the biggest factor I think. The leftovers are sold on the market. Its a matter of optimization. In some cases there are moons with both materials needed for a basic reaction, but this is rare. Its the same ice cost to mine the material yourself or put up a silo in place of a miner, a miner is seen as "free" minerals by a lot of people who do reactions. If you run out of optimized moons and people start having to put dedicated mining POS up, "wasting" cpu and ice without doing reactions, that is when the costs go above 100 isk for these low ends. I think this is likely with all the carbides now as there are not enough well placed moons to be practical. Its a question of how many "free mineral" pos remain, that mine and don't do reactions, like death stars for staging POS with a token miner. Its also a matter of convenience and safety, is it better to spread your POS out over 20 systems, or create a giant farm covering 40 moons in one system with cyno jammers, the cyno jammers would reduce risk and thus cost. There are price levels at about 200 isk, 400 isk and 800 isk for profitably running a small POS per unit of minerals in 0.0. This is based on the cost of ice for a small POS compared to the abundance level of the material being mined. Sov gives an ice bonus. Those are rough values. Profit is in addition to that. This strongly influences the price levels and where people place their reaction towers. The price needs to be about 1000 isk for people to be willing to mine, this is why you see so many moon minerals all around the same price level. It also depends on how many people don't mine at all and simply throw some reactors on a POS they already have up and buy materials, in that case values will trend towards 800 isk I think. Cyno jammers become an important factor in this. Carbides low ends are a big unknown for me. There are simply too many factors for me to get an accurate picture. My gut says 300-600 isk range with some getting above 800 isk maybe. At about 1000 isk people will start putting up small POS to mine that material, so its a hard limit. Frankly though, some of these materials might not make it above 300 isk some might permanently rise above 800 isk, some might become unsellable in volume from these factors. Its a total crap shoot. There is also an interesting factor at play here now that is not much discussed. If low end prices rise, this will inflate T2 ship build costs greatly. This will prevent people from buying T2 as much, and reduce volume. This creates a downward pressure on high end moons. This is what is importantly different between pre-dominion moons and post dominion in my opinion. The underbelly of the moon mineral basket is not quite as worthless as it used to be and might be a price factor for the long term. For laughs revalue all R4, R8 to at least 1000 isk or so and see what you get on your spread sheet for build costs, then deduct the difference from high ends until it reaches the historical level for that item, or what is a tolerable price. This idea makes T2 prices much more complex and volatile if it is true. Maybe I am dead wrong though, and my info is old. Meh. Fun to think about though. never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.12.03 15:02:00 - [413] Edited by: Akita T on 03/12/2009 15:04:34 Originally by: Tesal Reaction POS can also mine, that is the biggest factor I think.[...]If you run out of optimized moons and people start having to put dedicated mining POS up, "wasting" cpu and ice without doing reactions, that is when the costs go above 100 isk for these low ends. I think this is likely with all the carbides now as there are not enough well placed moons to be practical. The current estimates are that there will be at least 9000 simple reactions running on POSes as a grand total EVE-wide, given estimated bottlenecks. The more simple reactions will exist on POSes cranking out underused simple reaction stuff, the lower the price goes, so I seriously doubt the number of simple reactions that will be run will be much higher than that. The LARGEST problems currently in that scenario are silicates and evaporite deposits, which would have to have roughly 1800 POSes involving evaporite/silicates combo reactions, roughly 900 involving silicates with something else and another 900 involving evaporite with something else... in the long run. In the short run, that number is actually much, much higher, since the new bottleneck materials have huge stockpiles that need to be first depleted before prices go up. Compared to that, BEFORE Dominion, we would have had only roughly 6000 simple reactions running, with 900 on silicate/evaporite pair, 400 additional on evaporite with something else and 600 on silicates with something else. Even long-term, the need for each roughly doubles, as you can see... still, long-term, there should be well over 15k moons of each type available (probably closer to 18k of each) as a grand total. So it's not so much a question of being able to find the proper "mine and react directly" moons, but the ability to find AND EXPLOIT them in a reasonable timeframe... many more than needed in the long run, because the short-term spikes are horribly high. _ We are recruiting \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper
Tesal	Posted - 2009.12.03 19:02:00 - [414] Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 03/12/2009 15:04:34 Originally by: Tesal Reaction POS can also mine, that is the biggest factor I think.[...]If you run out of optimized moons and people start having to put dedicated mining POS up, "wasting" cpu and ice without doing reactions, that is when the costs go above 100 isk for these low ends. I think this is likely with all the carbides now as there are not enough well placed moons to be practical. The current estimates are that there will be at least 9000 simple reactions running on POSes as a grand total EVE-wide, given estimated bottlenecks. The more simple reactions will exist on POSes cranking out underused simple reaction stuff, the lower the price goes, so I seriously doubt the number of simple reactions that will be run will be much higher than that. The LARGEST problems currently in that scenario are silicates and evaporite deposits, which would have to have roughly 1800 POSes involving evaporite/silicates combo reactions, roughly 900 involving silicates with something else and another 900 involving evaporite with something else... in the long run. In the short run, that number is actually much, much higher, since the new bottleneck materials have huge stockpiles that need to be first depleted before prices go up. Compared to that, BEFORE Dominion, we would have had only roughly 6000 simple reactions running, with 900 on silicate/evaporite pair, 400 additional on evaporite with something else and 600 on silicates with something else. Even long-term, the need for each roughly doubles, as you can see... still, long-term, there should be well over 15k moons of each type available (probably closer to 18k of each) as a grand total. So it's not so much a question of being able to find the proper "mine and react directly" moons, but the ability to find AND EXPLOIT them in a reasonable timeframe... many more than needed in the long run, because the short-term spikes are horribly high. I agree with this somewhat. Its an opportunity cost issue in my opinion. The more towers that get put up, the harder it is to get all the reactions towers also mining the necessary materials in the most efficient way. The more inefficient this becomes, the more people will rely on Jita for materials. In my mind there are clear thresholds for prices if people start going to Jita for materials (which they did not do much pre-Dominion except mostly to dump surplus on a saturated market). There certainly is no shortage of these moons though. But I think the days of picking up moon minerals for 35 isk per unit are probably over for the most part. Short term, meh...we shall see. never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist
Mantra Achura Majesta Empire	Posted - 2009.12.03 21:55:00 - [415] Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 30/11/2009 08:07:10 We are also uncertain about technetium moon counts, as there could be as little as 370 or (according to some people, not me) there could be as many as 800+ tech moons game-wide (with 370 being most likely a lot closer to the actual number than 800 or more). WHY ? Well, we only have about 230 technetium moons confirmed, with a vast majority of them (197, so a little over 85% of the confirmed ones) concentrated in six reasonably well scouted Guristas/Caldari regions only. Those six regions were not completely scouted (there could be about 20 more moons in there), and there are three Guristas regions that weren't scouted much at all, but there could be as little as just 90 extra technetium moons in those three regions, and let's say 30 more game-wide, for a grand total of about 370 technetium moons overall. Of course, the moon count could have been severely underreported, but there is no pertinent reason to assume the underreporting factor is THAT high - even an 1.5 correction would be pretty far-fetched in my opinion, let alone a 2.something as some people seem to imply would be "closer to reality". Did anybody re-scan moons and could confirm changes on numbers of moon types? Are there any reports evil CCCP engineers added additional Tech moons inside the game?
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2009.12.03 22:08:00 - [416] Originally by: Mantra Achura Did anybody re-scan moons and could confirm changes on numbers of moon types? Are there any reports evil CCCP engineers added additional Tech moons inside the game? A systematic re-scanning would take months if not years. If there are more Tech moons to be had, locals will find them first and then you will see the effect on the market.
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.12.03 23:10:00 - [417] Edited by: Akita T on 03/12/2009 23:11:05 Originally by: Mantra Achura Are there any reports evil CCCP engineers added additional Tech moons inside the game? If they would have bothered modifying moons, they could have dropped this whole change process and simply added more dysprosium/promethium somewhere instead. So no, I do not believe there are any NEW technetium moons. The only possibility would have been old technetium moons nobody scanned yet (or didn't want to make public). _ We are recruiting \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper
The Slagh	Posted - 2009.12.03 23:56:00 - [418] Edited by: The Slagh on 03/12/2009 23:57:28 Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 03/12/2009 23:11:05 Originally by: Mantra Achura Are there any reports evil CCCP engineers added additional Tech moons inside the game? If they would have bothered modifying moons, they could have dropped this whole change process and simply added more dysprosium/promethium somewhere instead. So no, I do not believe there are any NEW technetium moons. The only possibility would have been old technetium moons nobody scanned yet (or didn't want to make public). Nobody would withhold any Tech scans they did unless it was less than two months ago though. Also everybody panic about Tech.
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.12.04 00:16:00 - [419] Tech and Plat and all their products are crashing now, they're following Neo down into oblivion. We were wrong, so... so wrong... At this point I think it would be best if we all tried to sell our stocks. In fact, because of our faulty advice, I feel it is only fair if Akita, me, and others involved in this massive market deception take responsibility, bite the bullet and offer to buy Tech from you at 5k/unit. It's a lot more than you'll get by the end of the week, and you likely won't be able to offload much by then, just look how quickly Neo went south.
EvilCheez	Posted - 2009.12.04 00:36:00 - [420] Quote: Tech and Plat and all their products are crashing now, they're following Neo down into oblivion. We were wrong, so... so wrong... At this point I think it would be best if we all tried to sell our stocks. In fact, because of our faulty advice, I feel it is only fair if Akita, me, and others involved in this massive market deception take responsibility, bite the bullet and offer to buy Tech from you at 5k/unit. It's a lot more than you'll get by the end of the week, and you likely won't be able to offload much by then, just look how quickly Neo went south. Damn decent of you..... damn decent. Btw it takes 3 nano reaction poses to keep a single component assembly array pumping out microprocessors.



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