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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.29 20:37:00 -
[331]
Edited by: Akita T on 29/11/2009 20:37:49
 Originally by: Turiel Demon
lol @ GD people not being allowed to talk about tech/neo 
"The less they know..."
P.S. Page 12 ? o.0
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hall vinal
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Posted - 2009.11.29 22:08:00 -
[332]
Originally by: Akita T
P.S. Page 12 ? o.0
it's a sign from god to forum ***** less :P
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.30 00:21:00 -
[333]
Tech
25 Sell orders in the past day (39 if you include trigger orders).
4 Buy orders, 3 of them at 11k in the past day. Substantial support is at 9.8k.
NEO
18 Sell orders, 21 if you include triggers.
11 buy orders at 14.5k.
This is a reasonable amount of support.
Looks like Neo will be higher than Tech shortly. Claims of a Tech shortage remain to be seen on the market. Neo is tightening though.
Dysp
14 sell orders in the past day set to drop from 52k to 41k.
16 buy orders in the past day laddering down quickly to 25k. It will probably level off at 20-30k and then adjust further after the patch based on demand.
Prom
24 sell orders with a widening spread, set to drop to 31k from 41k level.
18 buy orders laddering down to 25k. Probably settling in the 15-25k range and then adjust further after the patch based on demand.
never stop posting...with alts.
Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.30 00:53:00 -
[334]
From
Originally by: Tesal
Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
Originally by: Tesal
There is zero content to these posts, no technical data, just "this is up" or "buy this". This is not conducive to people buying into value, its conducive to ripping people off.
To
Originally by: Tesal
Tech...
NEO...
Dysp...
Prom...
in just 7 days.
I guess market will really explod after patch then?
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.30 03:31:00 -
[335]
Edited by: Tesal on 30/11/2009 03:32:44
Originally by: xylopia
From
Originally by: Tesal
Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
Originally by: Tesal
There is zero content to these posts, no technical data, just "this is up" or "buy this". This is not conducive to people buying into value, its conducive to ripping people off.
To
Originally by: Tesal
Tech...
NEO...
Dysp...
Prom...
in just 7 days.
I guess market will really explod after patch then?
Could be 2 weeks. Things will get goofy once the patch hits. That is what I think they are worth.
*edit
That is based on stocks on hand, and price supports in place and perceived value. Could change if someone decides to "alter" it. The market will win in the end though.
never stop posting...with alts.
Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 07:54:00 -
[336]
Originally by: Tesal
That is based on stocks on hand, and price supports in place and perceived value. Could change if someone decides to "alter" it. The market will win in the end though.
On the buyer side, prices are too high for non-speculators right now (dysprosium, promethium and all related materials haven't yet crashed far enough) to put up buy orders, and most of the speculators are either already heavily invested or pretty cautious before the patch actually hits considering the possible risks.
Most buy orders up right now are from speculators that don't mind taking some risks, with only very few orders from people that actually need it for reactions.
On the seller side, while some "mined technetium" owners could be already tempted to sell now if they need a quick buck, most of them (the ones with big piles anyway) are holding on for additional price increases, since their mentality is slightly different from that of most speculators. Speculators that bought it at a higher price and/or speculators certain the prices will rise even more won't unload yet.
Some sell orders right now are from smaller moon miners that managed to get some technetium extracted before the big names swooped in (with a massive fleet knocking the moons from under them) and are in need of urgent cash. Most of the sell orders however are from speculators that bought technetium cheaply and are uncertain about the future of the price.
On the stockpiles and potential supply side, things get tricky.
There is no clear data as to how much technetium is stockpiled on active accounts and accessible corp hangars (for all we know, there could be a year's usage worth of technetium available there OR EVEN MORE), which could delay the stabilization of prices for a very long time.
We are also uncertain about technetium moon counts, as there could be as little as 370 or (according to some people, not me) there could be as many as 800+ tech moons game-wide (with 370 being most likely a lot closer to the actual number than 800 or more).
WHY ? Well, we only have about 230 technetium moons confirmed, with a vast majority of them (197, so a little over 85% of the confirmed ones) concentrated in six reasonably well scouted Guristas/Caldari regions only. Those six regions were not completely scouted (there could be about 20 more moons in there), and there are three Guristas regions that weren't scouted much at all, but there could be as little as just 90 extra technetium moons in those three regions, and let's say 30 more game-wide, for a grand total of about 370 technetium moons overall.
Of course, the moon count could have been severely underreported, but there is no pertinent reason to assume the underreporting factor is THAT high - even an *1.5 correction would be pretty far-fetched in my opinion, let alone a *2.something as some people seem to imply would be "closer to reality".
Right now, the price level ONLY reflects a portion of the overall perceived future value of technetium (I say a portion because dysprosium and promethium still need to go down even more), and is not even remotely representative of the actual long-term equilibrium price.
For the price to even go ANYWHERE NEAR that equilibrium price, several things must happen:
* CCP needs to not fiddle with anything T2-related in the near future (at least 3 months, preferably longer)
* the (currently VERY HIGH) technetium/neodymium and related stocks need to get used up
* the (currently LOW) dysprosium/promethium and related stocks need to go up, significantly higher than the dropping tech/neo stockpiles
If any of the above conditions is not met, technetium (and neodymium) prices can't approach their long-term equilibrium level yet.
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xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.30 09:11:00 -
[337]
W/ CCP keeping their lips tight over how dreadful new t2 market looks, I can only guess they are saying 'buddy, I don't think so' or 'pal, we shall see' behind their closed vault door for whatever reason they are holding onto.
I was rather surprise to find out CCP actually gave the current change on sisi a go. Market fluctuation, massive stock @ 4-4 or somewhere out there, and etc are more than fully expected.
I was actually pointing out ppl accusing this thread of 'manipulation', 'stupid', 'no value' completely turned out to be ardent devotees singing the same hymn in even higher tone as patch day just b4 their nose.
Another awesome show right there.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:14:00 -
[338]
Allegedly (can't verify right now but will soon), CCP devs _have_ made a last-minute change : the nanotransistor reaction yields 3000 instead of 1500.
If true (and if only this change was made), this significantly reduces bottlenecks (which will translate into overall lower T2 prices and moon-mineral basket prices.
But it also _KILLS_ the relative value of neodymium (to barely ~52%), putting it behind (in the most likely scarcity order) technetium (still the main bottleneck at 100%), platinum (~79%), chromium (~78%), dysprosium (~73%) and promethium (~67%).
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:27:00 -
[339]
Just updated SiSi (damn you hidden patch files) and logged in.
False alarm, the reaction still yields the same 1500, NOT 3000.
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Stanfer
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:36:00 -
[340]
Originally by: Akita T
Just updated SiSi (damn you hidden patch files) and logged in.
False alarm, the reaction still yields the same 1500, NOT 3000.
Oh god, I logged in to cancel a market order for Neo and found that it had been filled :( Then I saw your update and cheered!
\o/
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22ww
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:40:00 -
[341]
I read that and nearly had a heart attack, especially as my sisi client isn't currently working. Thanks for checking that Akita, all it cost me were a few broker fees. |
Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:44:00 -
[342]
i have to give credit. seeding rumors when the majority of players are unable to check themselfs at sisi... seems like someone wanted to jump the tech train and intended to lower its price a little before doing that.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:10:00 -
[343]
All in ! Call ? 
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:10:00 -
[344]
Edited by: EvilCheez on 30/11/2009 14:11:32
Akita you really shouldn't let them get to you like that.......24K
I hope you weren't too rash
edit : I almost beat you back here
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22ww
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:14:00 -
[345]
Well Akita no one should ever accuse you of not beliveing what you post on the fourms. Well played for sticking with it and I think everyone whos reading this thread wishes you luck.
(Akita just single handedly pushed the sells on Technetium past 28k)
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:19:00 -
[346]
Since I'm giving it very good odds we'll see STEADY tech prices above 30k by New Year's Eve, 45k by early February and up to over 70k by early March (when my bond ends, and I doubt CCP would make a move before Tech reaches at least 80k or even 100k), from my viewpoint even purchasing at 30k would be borderline justifiable right now (hell, even 50k).
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:35:00 -
[347]
The rumour-monger is either laying it on very thick (and somewhat creatively) or the 80K tech level is more likely:
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1222878&page=1#4
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:43:00 -
[348]
Edited by: Akita T on 30/11/2009 14:45:38
Actually, I just re-did the calcs with the "3000 instead of 1500" and something funny popped up.
BEFORE Dominion, the bottleneck was dysprosium at roughly 58% of estimated total extraction potential used in the sample.
AFTER Dominion, WITH the 3000-per-batch nanotransistors, the bottleneck is still technetium, and that at an estimated ~410 total tech moon count (230 on 56% coverage flat distribution of uncharted area, which is actually more generous than the more likely 370 count).
And that at *drum roll* almost 49% of estimated total extraction potential for the very same sample.
With 370 moons total, that's roughly 54% of potential extraction total.
Bottom line, the basket level drop won't be nearly as severe as I initially feared (noticeably less than half was feared, 20%-30% drop maximum actually expected now) in case the 1500->3000 change DOES actually happen, and technetium is still poised to suck in the vast majority of ISK into it, even if there's slightly less total ISK to go around per item (not MUCH less, just slightly less).
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Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:49:00 -
[349]
Originally by: Akita T
EVEN IF the rumours of the alleged 1500->3000 nanotransistors reaction would actually be true
Those rumours are totally nonsense and a weak attempt at market manipulation. A couple of refutations to that rumour are already posted.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:54:00 -
[350]
Oops, there goes tech again...
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Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:58:00 -
[351]
Originally by: Akita T
Since I'm giving it very good odds we'll see STEADY tech prices above 30k by New Year's Eve, 45k by early February and up to over 70k by early March ...
From my viewpoint even purchasing at 30k would be borderline justifiable right now (hell, even 50k).
Interesting enough is that the composite material based on Technetium like PT is still pretty cheap.
Any explanations for that?
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.30 15:05:00 -
[352]
Originally by: Gnulpie
Interesting enough is that the composite material based on Technetium like PT is still pretty cheap.
Any explanations for that?
Until 5 seconds ago 
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Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
Mihoko Nakahara
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Posted - 2009.11.30 15:30:00 -
[353]
Just tested Simon's reaction on Sisi.
Looks like it's legit :(
Not as bad as he predicted though, which is good.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 15:46:00 -
[354]
I just ran MY numbers. You know, the personal numbers as I just ran out of liquid ISK (barely scraping the barrel at only a few bil ISK liquid). For the bond and stuff.
Even if I sell my technetium stocks at 5k per unit (yes, I said 5k, not 50k per unit), at the current market sell order levels for everything else in stock (so only the rest of the items), after fees, upon returning the appropriate amounts plus bond bonus to everybody who loaned me some cash, I still end up with a (tiny) net profit compared to the point I started at.
Heh. A lot of work would have been for nothing, but then again, what if I sell them at 75k or more per unit ?
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.30 16:22:00 -
[355]
Ive still have what I consider quite a bit of PT, but I'm still half hoping the rumor will be confirmed just to see this thing go to 20 pages by patchtime
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 16:35:00 -
[356]
At this point I'm too tired to actually set up a POS, load up the reaction then wait and see the actual results.
It would be nice if some other (reasonably trustworthy due to reputation) parties could either confirm or deny this in some way (heck, if they responded to his petition request, I guess they could answer somebody else's petition about it too - or just go the standard way and actually run the reaction).
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Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 16:53:00 -
[357]
Originally by: Akita T
It would be nice if some other (reasonably trustworthy due to reputation) parties could either confirm or deny this in some way
Currently Sisi is down for (unscheduled) downtime. So it might take a bit. |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2009.11.30 17:07:00 -
[358]
Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch.
If true, I wonder what "other" surprises slipped unnoticed past the patchnotes team.
Also, if true, I am rather shocked they bothered changing a reaction instead of doing it the same way they already did it before, by altering component counts and manufacture times... or, rather said, annoyed that they didn't just do that for all reactions in the first place while leaving the components alone.
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.30 17:30:00 -
[359]
sisi's patched and there is no change to the actual reaction blueprint, and I highly doubt the description on the details page is seperate from the actual values, it would be easier to program it to pull those directly from the real values
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.30 17:45:00 -
[360]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA
sisi's patched and there is no change to the actual reaction blueprint, and I highly doubt the description on the details page is seperate from the actual values, it would be easier to program it to pull those directly from the real values
Yah, it was a hoax. Was nice for tech to be slightly lower while it lasted - there really are a lot of jittery people around so close to patch - but meh, not really significant.
Roll on the ISK train, I suppose.
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