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The most detailed Dominion market analysis so far ( BIG ! )

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Mahke Aeon Of Strife	Posted - 2009.11.27 21:14:00 - [301] Edited by: Mahke on 27/11/2009 21:17:05 Originally by: Turiel Demon Originally by: fmercury Edited by: fmercury on 27/11/2009 09:16:03 The price of tech/neo has increased 15-30x, but fullerides/fernite carbide haven't gone up by more than 50%, what gives? answered in-game If you don't mind, forward that to me too . Your posts are almost always insightful and I'd be interested in what you think about it. edit: nevermind, found your view on this on another forum.
EvilweaselSA Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm	Posted - 2009.11.27 22:00:00 - [302] because fernite carbide has nothing to do with tech or neo, for starters
YouGotRipped Ewigkeit	Posted - 2009.11.27 22:24:00 - [303] Originally by: Akita T Everybody else that read it most likely either went speechless and had nothing to add, or they're playing with the spreadsheets right now Or else! Black Sun Empire
EvilCheez	Posted - 2009.11.28 00:04:00 - [304] I am looking forward to Dominion day, and was wondering what I should be looking for when it hits. If there are any last minute nerfs/buffs will these definately be listed in the patch notes? Other than the obvious (Micro-processor bps), what items should I check up on?
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.11.28 10:34:00 - [305] Originally by: EvilCheez If there are any last minute nerfs/buffs will these definately be listed in the patch notes? I somehow doubt the patch notes will mention more than "an alchemy boost to *4 effectiveness" and "several adjustments to T2 component manufacture time and T2 ship manufacture required material amounts". _ We are recruiting \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.11.28 16:23:00 - [306] Originally by: Mahke nice things I have a fan Now then, to business: I've received information from a few people with access to moon maps of those regions of interest to the Tech debate. What it comes down to, as you all know, is the fewer Tech moons there are, the more rare it is, and the more likely it is to be the bottleneck. Now, from the information available it's possible to determine a likely and a maximum number of a given type of moon in the regions where we have no accurate count, and from this we can calculate the minimum, likely and maximum number in the whole galaxy. The numbers I have now indicate that at bare minimum there are 241 Tech moons. Most likely, there are around 307 tech moons. At an absolute maximum there are 357 tech moons. This produces the following two possible sets of data: First the MAX possible Tech, with probable Neo. And second the probable Tech with MAX Neo I have not included the MIN Neo and MAX Tech graph, though this is the only combination that puts Neo in the lead it is exceedingly unlikely to be the case. It puts Tech second at 92.8%. Note that I have extrapolated the numbers of the less important moons to the likely number that are present given the ratio of under-reporting in known regions that have had their accurate numbers revealed. Formula is roughly 'new value = old number + 0.5 x (newly known number - old number)' because we're missing information on roughly half of regions, hence why I've added about half of the under-reporting ratio the numbers suggest to the galaxy-wide mooncount. Now, see that even with Max tech moons (so least rarity, and exceedingly unlikely) it's still in the lead given the probable number of Neo moons, and the situation will likely be in between those two. That means that Tech is pretty much guaranteed to be the highest value moon bar CCP changes, but it is closer to the R64's than was previously expected. All in all, this is looking good, and probably a little more balanced between the moon minerals than we'd thought it would be. Given that CCP know exactly how many moons there are it wouldn't surprise me if they have gone for a balance point where they'll accept Tech having a slight lead, with the 3 big R64's following closely behind.
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.11.28 16:59:00 - [307] Originally by: Akita T Originally by: EvilCheez If there are any last minute nerfs/buffs will these definately be listed in the patch notes? I somehow doubt the patch notes will mention more than "an alchemy boost to *4 effectiveness" and "several adjustments to T2 component manufacture time and T2 ship manufacture required material amounts". I keep wondering what dev or devs are responsible for adjusting T2 production.
Count MonteCarlo Genos Occidere HYDRA RELOADED	Posted - 2009.11.28 17:01:00 - [308] Thanks for that post, I enjoy reading them, does this mean that the likely hood of technetium getting nerfed a lot lower than previously thought ?
Tagami Wasp Caldari Sarz'na Khumatari Ushra'Khan	Posted - 2009.11.28 17:25:00 - [309] Not bad. Anyway, my isk are not in tech, but I like the boost the rest of the basket gets.
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.11.28 17:33:00 - [310] Originally by: Count MonteCarlo Thanks for that post, I enjoy reading them, does this mean that the likely hood of technetium getting nerfed a lot lower than previously thought ? I actually think so yes, though the likelihood of a Tech nerf was already fairly limited. Compared to the situation before dominion this new situation (that is, probable tech and probable neo levels) has not just 2 immensely important moongoos with all others being sub-40%, but a wide range of important moongoo. We see Mercury, Hafnium, platinum, Chromium and Cadmium all rising to far more significant usage % than before. The three big R64's are all around 60-85%, and with their new less-than-top status, they will probably not see 100% productivity, raising their relative value. It's clear that this will create a very interesting market dynamic, as they rise and fall in relative prices, making alchemy more or less profitable for each of them over time, fluctuating as the 0.0 alliances take different space and moons fall and production levels change. Tech leads, and that may or may not be a good thing, but it doesn't lead by anything like such an extreme amount as prom/dysp did. I expect CPP, having the knowledge of exact moon numbers, will probably have plugged their own values into the equasion themselves, and I think we're getting ever closer to their numbers. Tech is a moongoo that is significantly present in low-sec, like Black Rise, unlike prom/dyspro, this means that unlike where Prom and Dyspro were 99% in titan-defended cyno-jammed systems there can be meaningful conflict over their possession that need not take years to plan and execute, nor does it need to rely on metagaming to see significant shifts in wealth-holders. As it stands right now, I would think it would be in CCP's best interests to leave their new balance as they have put it on Sisi. The dynamic is both superior to what it was before and very interesting in its regional distribution. They can change it pretty much at any time if it gets out of hand, but right now I honestly can't see any reason for them to change it.
Tagami Wasp Caldari Sarz'na Khumatari Ushra'Khan	Posted - 2009.11.28 21:45:00 - [311] To be honest I would not put it past them to seed in the future moongoo in exploration sites. If they do so, it will allow even better distribution.
Spectre Wraith Darwin Inc.	Posted - 2009.11.28 22:17:00 - [312] Yeah I'm sure we could expect moon mins, and perhaps to some degree ice, from their comet project.
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.11.28 22:46:00 - [313] Something like that would probably be the optimal method of adapting to the currently absolute limitation that moon count imposes on T2 production. As it is whatever CCP does there will ALWAYS be a bottleneck and though they may reduce the need for individual moongoo like they've done now with Prom/Dyspro we see that players positive charge at the next detected bottleneck with wild abandon, with perfectly valid logic behind their reasoning as it will become valuable.
Kanatta Jing	Posted - 2009.11.28 23:11:00 - [314] Patch notes kick out Chromium and Platinum as bottle necks. All hail our new Technetium overlords.
EvilCheez	Posted - 2009.11.28 23:22:00 - [315] Science and Industry * The Tech 2 ship component composition has been changed. Full details can be found in the blog by CCP Chronotis The streams must flow. * Manufacture time for some construction components (armor plates and microprocessors) has been reduced. * The volume of carbides (advanced materials) has been reduced to 0.01m3 from 0.05m3. * The quantity of Sylramic Fibers required to produce the armor plate construction material has been reduced to 10 per unit.
Terrible Karma	Posted - 2009.11.28 23:23:00 - [316] Originally by: Kanatta Jing Patch notes kick out Chromium and Platinum as bottle necks. All hail our new Technetium overlords. But fear the stealth patch! Show of hands, who thinks CCP will try to fix the bottleneck for T2 minerals using the same method they used to "fix" the T3 bottleneck? \o/\o/\o/ o/\o \o o/ o/ o/ o/\o/ o/\o \o o/ (we all know little green men know best)
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.11.28 23:26:00 - [317] Pretty massive news from patch notes, though I am informed they have been out a few days already and I just wasn't told by anyone Quote: Science and Industry * The Tech 2 ship component composition has been changed. Full details can be found in the blog by CCP Chronotis The streams must flow. * Manufacture time for some construction components (armor plates and microprocessors) has been reduced. * The volume of carbides (advanced materials) has been reduced to 0.01m3 from 0.05m3. * The quantity of Sylramic Fibers required to produce the armor plate construction material has been reduced to 10 per unit. The previous changes and adjustments (sylramics) are named specifically, no changes to Technetium!
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.11.29 00:51:00 - [318] Edited by: Akita T on 29/11/2009 00:50:58 Originally by: Turiel Demon Pretty massive news from patch notes The only "news" (as in, stuff not already observed on SiSi and/or talked the hell out in this very thread since a while ago) is the carbide volume reduction. Everything else is exactly as feared/hoped. /me rubs hands... nice ISK, come to my wallet. _ We are recruiting \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper
EvilweaselSA Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm	Posted - 2009.11.29 01:06:00 - [319] ahahahahaha christ boy did they screw the pooch on this one tech will be worth more than dyspro ever was
EvilweaselSA Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm	Posted - 2009.11.29 01:14:00 - [320] Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 29/11/2009 00:50:58 Originally by: Turiel Demon Pretty massive news from patch notes The only "news" (as in, stuff not already observed on SiSi and/or talked the hell out in this very thread since a while ago) is the carbide volume reduction. Everything else is exactly as feared/hoped. /me rubs hands... nice ISK, come to my wallet. the carbide has been there the whole time, it made it so armor plates are no longer a compression technique but it's going to be great for transport savings, plus making carbide towers require much less attention
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.11.29 01:49:00 - [321] Edited by: Turiel Demon on 29/11/2009 01:49:49 I meant news as in 'there is no bad news' hehe, suppose that's a bit contradictory, but 'HEY GUYS MASSIVE LACK OF NEWS!' doesn't quite have the same ring to it EDIT: spelling
Eisonar	Posted - 2009.11.29 02:32:00 - [322] Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 29/11/2009 00:50:58 Originally by: Turiel Demon Pretty massive news from patch notes The only "news" (as in, stuff not already observed on SiSi and/or talked the hell out in this very thread since a while ago) is the carbide volume reduction. Everything else is exactly as feared/hoped. /me rubs hands... nice ISK, come to my wallet. /me can't wait for patchday. Only problem I'm having now is whether or not I should buy more... Hmmm...
Tesal	Posted - 2009.11.29 04:54:00 - [323] Originally by: EvilweaselSA ahahahahaha christ boy did they screw the pooch on this one tech will be worth more than dyspro ever was If it is a true bottleneck, then expect all the other moon minerals to crash hard. That includes dyspro, think 2-5k range for that, a bit better than a cadmium moon. Its value will be in the ice needed to react it, probably done in place as much as possible. Everything will all be in surplus and all go down the same way if this is true. I think there are still some fairly big unknowns in all of this, mainly confirmation on the number of moons and limits to the ability to double up moon mining and reactions on the same POS. That will force some market trading of raw moon minerals and act as a price support. Then there will be the final price restraint of the finished T2 product, I doubt the final product will increase in price, it is already at the most the market can take. We will see once the patch hits. People are pretty much frozen right now. never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist
Vodun Viziam	Posted - 2009.11.29 09:27:00 - [324] Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 23/11/2009 16:12:35 EDITS : p2#40 - v2 p4#94 - v3 p4#111 - v3b p5#132 - v3c p9#253 - v3d This is the most detailed PUBLIC AND COMPLETELY VERIFIABLE Dominion market analysis so far. Well, at least as far as I know, anyway... and you don't have to take my word for anything I say below, check and double-check, maybe I actually made some mistakes. For those interested in getting the full work data, it's available for download in Excel97 and Excel2007 formats below : http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/EVE_Dominion_Office1997.zip (~0.7 MB) http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/EVE_Dominion_Office2007.zip (~ 12 MB) NOTES ON DOWNLOADS * the Excel2007 files contain a lot of additional data, and in case any more changes appear on SiSi, they are very easily updated * the Excel97 files can still update some data (including alchemy ratios and market amounts), but the formatting is a bit uglier * the screenshots that will be posted below are all taken from the Excel2007 version ALCHEMY ADJUSTMENTS Now, I did also include in the very end one section on alchemy, and that needs a bit of additional explanation. First off, it's next to impossible to determine the exact alchemy usage, because it depends on too many different factors. Basically, right now, the breakeven point (where you make no money but you lose no money) in alchemy is for price of replacement material ("low_ISK") = price of replaced material ("high_ISK") / the alchemy replacement rate (used to be 20, in dominion it's 5) - one hour's worth of medium tower fuel (used to be 100k or thereabouts) * (alchemyrate-1)/100. At the new alchemy rate and the old fuel costs, that means when low_ISK = (high_ISK/5) - 4000 ISK. Obviously, you want to make a profit or else there's no point in doing alchemy at all, so the price of the "low" material would have to be a bit below break-even value for you to start doing that. Instead of doing countless calculations, I have implemented a simplified (and therefore not entirely accurate, but then again, what is) system to very roughly estimate the alchemy reactions being done. All you have to do is set a ROUGH price multiplier between low_ISK and high_ISK (the pairings are easily visible and you'll figure which is which) - basically, it makes YOU take a more or less informed guess as to what the maximum price ratios could be between the moon mineral pairs where people would consider starting to do alchemy. The closer the number is to the alchemy rate, the more likely it is alchemy would start registering as profitable on that particular pair, and the rest is auto-estimated from there (amounts used, time spent, adjusted scarcities, etc). It's by no means fool-proof, but if you play around with those "trigger price ratios", you will see that the overall result is pretty robust and close enough to what actually happens. WHAT IS BEING ANALYZED The entire monthly trade of one region is broken down by T2 components, then by moon minerals used in the production of the components. Without knowing which and how many of the items are being sold directly to a customer by manufacturers, moved through a daytrader first, or resold by a previous customer, we have no choice but to assume the traded values are representative of the manufacture process (at least as far as ratios are concerned). Then, the same analysis is made using modified build amounts now live on SiSi, which may or may not be the final Dominion values. Finally, the differences between the current stuation and the upcoming Dominion situation are compared, with emphasis on percentual differences... since the amounts will undoubtedly change a lot after the patch (I'm giving some minor spoilers here - prices will generally go down and volumes up). Get a life!! ---
Kanatta Jing	Posted - 2009.11.29 09:56:00 - [325] Hey, Can't you see where trying to monger some fear here to exploit the market to our ends?
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.11.29 12:06:00 - [326] Originally by: Vodun Get a life!! Get some appreciation for the hard work someone put into giving you the opportunity to make more ISK.
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2009.11.29 15:27:00 - [327] Originally by: Vodun Get a life!! Get a brain !?! _ We are recruiting \| Beginer's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper
Johanna Outeston Gallente District 4 Provisions	Posted - 2009.11.29 16:35:00 - [328] Edited by: Johanna Outeston on 29/11/2009 16:37:27 Geez, give T some slack, she made A LOT Of poeple get some deeper pockets probably, well time to buy up my t2 component materials for the next 2 or 3 months. Thanks for all of the hard work!
Frecator Dementa Caldari	Posted - 2009.11.29 18:20:00 - [329] Originally by: Johanna Outeston Edited by: Johanna Outeston on 29/11/2009 16:37:27 Geez, give T some slack, he made A LOT Of poeple get some deeper pockets probably, well time to buy up my t2 component materials for the next 2 or 3 months. Thanks for all of the hard work! fixxd' ----------------------- forum ate my post again
Turiel Demon Minmatar Blue Republic	Posted - 2009.11.29 19:29:00 - [330] lol @ GD people not being allowed to talk about tech/neo

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