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Martosh Toma Gallente Fraction Investment	Posted - 2010.05.28 15:24:00 - [151] I really was expecting an eve rollback over this one. But with plexes and game time card transfers for isk they made it kind of impossible (or potentially very expensive) to do a rollback of the database. Some people already sunk their isk gains into plexes. As some might have felt what they were doing was not quite above board they may have taken measures to launder the gains as well. I am guessing that undoing this whole mess would already require a similar amount of work as was needed to sort out the whole pos exploid a while back. Shutting down the cluster for days in between these 2 patches (26th of may and 8th july) because of a mistake may not apeal to them for obvious reasons. Not to mention all the complaints form all the people that already calculated themselves to be rich now. I do not think recalculating the amounts of modulse used and produced is an option either. Many of the items referred to as pos fuels are also used in t2 production. Ajusting only the production amounts and requirements for the high end pos and outpost items would probebly not lead to the balance they sought for with the numbers they started this expansion with. Of course with such hurried ajustments on potentially many bpo's with loads and loads of expected and to be honest quite valid complaints also brings a huge risk of even more errors. Considering how widely know this is fixing it now is sort ofsuperfluous. What I expect to be the only option remaining is downplaying the importance of this failure and trying to do the seccond stage of delivery as soon as humainly possible. I Believe there is one more lagtest scheduled for this weekend. I suspect and predict that if no serious issues are raised at this test that by monday downtime at the latest the npc orders will dissapear and that this tuesday the seccond stage of tyrannis will be deployed making the outposts availeble for everyone.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2010.05.28 15:32:00 - [152] Originally by: Martosh Toma I really was expecting an eve rollback over this one. You know... I don't think I'd be too upset by this myself. Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame.
cosmoray Bella Vista Holdings Corp	Posted - 2010.05.28 16:46:00 - [153] Making quick cash out of this patch is like a ponzi scheme, get in early and get out quickly before the authorities drop the hammer. My PI: 100 REAA (@ 9 each) = 900M 100 cyno jammer (@ 7.2 each) = 720M 160 Cap Construction Parts (avge 5M each, some mine) = 800M 1 Large Caldari Tower BPO = 500M Total = 2920M 20 Large Caldari Towers in production Sold all other spare P4 modules = 720M Total spent = 2200M Caldari Tower each cost = 85M (not inc BPO) The market for P4 parts looks to have tanked badly in the last few hrs. Sterile conduits selling for around 1M (vs 2.5M 2 hrs ago). One of the big winners is those making cap construction parts, now selling for 15M each (production cost approx. 3.5M ISK)
Tavusii	Posted - 2010.05.28 17:07:00 - [154] Originally by: cosmoray Making quick cash out of this patch is like a ponzi scheme, get in early and get out quickly before the authorities drop the hammer. My PI: 100 REAA (@ 9 each) = 900M 100 cyno jammer (@ 7.2 each) = 720M 160 Cap Construction Parts (avge 5M each, some mine) = 800M 1 Large Caldari Tower BPO = 500M Total = 2920M 20 Large Caldari Towers in production Sold all other spare P4 modules = 720M Total spent = 2200M Caldari Tower each cost = 85M (not inc BPO) The market for P4 parts looks to have tanked badly in the last few hrs. Sterile conduits selling for around 1M (vs 2.5M 2 hrs ago). One of the big winners is those making cap construction parts, now selling for 15M each (production cost approx. 3.5M ISK) Now, notwithstanding the coming massive drop in pos prices, a quick visit with mr. calculator tells me that cosmoray just profited 5.5 billion on an investment of approx. 3 billion, or ~180% in several days. Any speculation as to the final settling point of a large pos as everyone and their momma tries to dump their **** before the hammer falls, or as people realize that they're going to need to hold their new pos' for up to a year before demand equalizes with this new supply?
Jan VanRijkdom	Posted - 2010.05.28 17:21:00 - [155] Edited by: Jan VanRijkdom on 28/05/2010 17:21:47 Cue '50s music and grainy radio broadcast with enthusiastic voice "With the advancing of this modern age, now every man, woman and child can afford to have their very own Player Owned Sation! It's not just for the nieghbours anymore..."
Grozen Caldari Titan Core	Posted - 2010.05.28 17:22:00 - [156] Originally by: Tavusii Originally by: cosmoray Making quick cash out of this patch is like a ponzi scheme, get in early and get out quickly before the authorities drop the hammer. My PI: 100 REAA (@ 9 each) = 900M 100 cyno jammer (@ 7.2 each) = 720M 160 Cap Construction Parts (avge 5M each, some mine) = 800M 1 Large Caldari Tower BPO = 500M Total = 2920M 20 Large Caldari Towers in production Sold all other spare P4 modules = 720M Total spent = 2200M Caldari Tower each cost = 85M (not inc BPO) The market for P4 parts looks to have tanked badly in the last few hrs. Sterile conduits selling for around 1M (vs 2.5M 2 hrs ago). One of the big winners is those making cap construction parts, now selling for 15M each (production cost approx. 3.5M ISK) Now, notwithstanding the coming massive drop in pos prices, a quick visit with mr. calculator tells me that cosmoray just profited 5.5 billion on an investment of approx. 3 billion, or ~180% in several days. Any speculation as to the final settling point of a large pos as everyone and their momma tries to dump their **** before the hammer falls, or as people realize that they're going to need to hold their new pos' for up to a year before demand equalizes with this new supply? Now if only there wasn't atleast 1k pos already in the oven he'd be able to sell it fast.But everyone is trying to cash out before ccp brings justice so my guess is its not gonna be funny when all those pos enter the market. knowledge is power
Catari Taga Centre Of Attention Rough Necks	Posted - 2010.05.28 18:05:00 - [157] Originally by: Grozen This means that most calculations about PI are wrong? No, that's damage control -- Originally by: Zeke Mobius I swear the catholic church was faster at admitting the earth was round than CCP at fixing stuff.
Alain Kinsella Minmatar	Posted - 2010.05.28 18:11:00 - [158] Hmm. A 'quick and dirty' fix to all of this could be to re-seed the Empire planets to have same resource levels as Null, maybe higher. Then lower it over 3-4 months (this is very easily shoehorned from a RP/Lore perspective). Nice little side effect of this would be to get more players addicted to the higher levels, and maybe tempt them towards Low and Null. Of course, they could also place a two-month ban on every account that held P4 materials during the time frame. As a DB person, I can envision the query easily enough, especially since they're not supposed to exist yet... Neither solution would surprise me, given past history. I definitely do not envy them whatever decision they eventually make. --A_K
Steve Celeste Caldari Inglorious-Basterds	Posted - 2010.05.28 18:29:00 - [159] That other GM correspondence got snipped from GD, any idea if they will actually do something to current PI materials?
Grozen Caldari Titan Core	Posted - 2010.05.28 18:36:00 - [160] It doesn't seem you understand what i posted.The output of PI is so large players have no idea.There are really great planets out there with tons of resources in them.A player with maxed planetary skills can catch up very easy to the situation. knowledge is power
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.05.28 18:48:00 - [161] POPCORN GRAB TIME NOW _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
Catari Taga Centre Of Attention Rough Necks	Posted - 2010.05.28 19:18:00 - [162] Originally by: Grozen It doesn't seem you understand what i posted.The output of PI is so large players have no idea.There are really great planets out there with tons of resources in them.A player with maxed planetary skills can catch up very easy to the situation. It doesn't seem you understand what you are talking about, if only planet output was increased then prices will tank even more. The problem was never of players not being able to catch up, the problem was always one of oversupply. -- Originally by: Zeke Mobius I swear the catholic church was faster at admitting the earth was round than CCP at fixing stuff.
Grozen Caldari Titan Core	Posted - 2010.05.28 19:24:00 - [163] Ok we'll talk again when the cc get seeded and i have some numbers to back me up. knowledge is power
Alain Kinsella Minmatar	Posted - 2010.05.28 19:31:00 - [164] Originally by: Grozen It doesn't seem you understand what i posted.The output of PI is so large players have no idea.There are really great planets out there with tons of resources in them.A player with maxed planetary skills can catch up very easy to the situation. I believe I understand enough; I spent a weekend with the final 'base' iteration on Sisi a couple weeks ago, and would be eager to get into it if they can reduce the clicks a bit (I did so much in 3 days it injured my wrist again which is why I liked mining so much). I only tested in Empire, as that is where most of the 'common' (or 'visible') PI will be occurring. To be blunt, if you want to produce P4 in Empire be ready to spend tons of time training (which I agree with you on). However, in about three days or so you can have all three of your character slots trained for four planets and the L4 CCs. This is more than enough to get basic P2 chains in Empire, and some P3 chains with a little work and/or a lot of importing. I did not test in Null, but would suspect that a standalone (partial or full import) P4 chain is doable with these skills. That's mostly due to less need for extractors in higher-output planets; You can then fit more in the planet chain. Which is why I suggested raising the Empire output for awhile. Folks will flood the market with relatively cheap (aka low-risk) P4 in short enough order. A ratio change to P4 (as suggested by Akita in the other thread) would be a reasonable tie-in to that actually. --A_K
Catari Taga Centre Of Attention Rough Necks	Posted - 2010.05.28 20:03:00 - [165] Originally by: Alain Kinsella PS - Catari, though I'm also concerned about oversupply, raising the output could also entice smaller/starter corps to be self-sufficient. In theory, you can now have a small group build and supply their own high-sec pos labs from scratch - just add standings (or none, if a WH is used). The only isk sink, to them, will be the BPOs and costs of PI usage. Yes, but that is exactly the problem, isn't it? If everybody is self-sufficient who is going to buy oversupply from the market? There needs to be an incentive to rather lay down the ISK than build it yourself.
Grozen Caldari Titan Core	Posted - 2010.05.28 20:11:00 - [166] They have yet to reveal more parts of PI do not forget its going to be linked to DUST.If there are alot of dust players how are we going to meet the demand for DUST goods if we're not self-sufficient? knowledge is power
Catari Taga Centre Of Attention Rough Necks	Posted - 2010.05.28 20:22:00 - [167] Originally by: Grozen They have yet to reveal more parts of PI do not forget its going to be linked to DUST.If there are alot of dust players how are we going to meet the demand for DUST goods if we're not self-sufficient? Lol, well let me just say that's assuming an awful lot, and considering DUST is 2-3 expansions away it's pretty irrelevant to everything happening now. -- Originally by: Zeke Mobius I swear the catholic church was faster at admitting the earth was round than CCP at fixing stuff.
Grozen Caldari Titan Core	Posted - 2010.05.28 20:29:00 - [168] Its not irrelevant because some of the DUST structures/vehicles may require insane amount of PI materials so if we haven't stocked enough of them and if we don't have enough on the markets at good price we won't be able to cope with the demand regardless how big the DUST population is. Its pretty much pointless to worry about supply atm i say we can look at it again when PI gets fully developed. knowledge is power
Cergorach Amarr The Helix Foundation	Posted - 2010.05.28 21:06:00 - [169] Originally by: Grozen Its not irrelevant because some of the DUST structures/vehicles may require insane amount of PI materials so if we haven't stocked enough of them and if we don't have enough on the markets at good price we won't be able to cope with the demand regardless how big the DUST population is. THAT is nothing more then speculation, we don't know if we can even interact with Dusk beyond contracts and isk.
mental maverick Duty. Duty. Private Security	Posted - 2010.05.28 21:20:00 - [170] I dont think i agree with you Grozen. Dust is way too far off to be speculating on what that is going to do to help PI in the comming months. Increasing the supply from planets and making every POS blueprint require more materials could have been a good fix if there where only big stocks of P4 materials. The big problem are all the outposts and POS mods allready in construction that were constructed with the cheap P4s gotten from cyno jammers. There are probably months of supplys out there allready (going by the Forge market graphs). Since P4s cant be reprocessed into anything else and used for other stuff, like nanite paste for example, those POSes will remain POSes. Even if they will bring a loss people will still sell them to get atleast some isk back, since there is no other way to get rid of them. This would still make POS mods dirt cheap. It might shave off a few months worth of supply but in no way is it a "fix".
Di Mulle	Posted - 2010.05.28 21:20:00 - [171] Edited by: Di Mulle on 28/05/2010 21:21:27 Originally by: Grozen They have yet to reveal more parts of PI do not forget its going to be linked to DUST.If there are alot of dust players how are we going to meet the demand for DUST goods if we're not self-sufficient? When I see talks about "production for Dust", I want to say this: I don't care about their demands, I care what they will pay for these demands with ? Originally by: Grozen Its not irrelevant because some of the DUST structures/vehicles may require insane amount of PI materials so if we haven't stocked enough of them and if we don't have enough on the markets at good price we won't be able to cope with the demand regardless how big the DUST population is. Again, where Dusters are gonna get insane amounts of ISK to pay for "insane amount of PI material" ? You are going to provide them for free ?
Panjho	Posted - 2010.05.29 00:44:00 - [172] Let's talk long term damage control. I'm shocked there isn't an emergency cutoff for NPC goods. This could have happened anytime, not just with PI. When an NPC good is mispriced, naturally, players will jump all over it. There should be a volume cutoff which halts NPC trades when the volume traded in a region exceeds the normal volume by a factor of 10x. If such a cutoff existed, it would have limited the damage in this case by a lot. Current 3-day Forge volume: REAA: 743 3695 7262 MHA: 67 1429 1084 CSJ: 1557 13934 0* If there was a cutoff in place this would have been: REAA: 10 10 10 (based on normal volume of 1/day) MHA: 67 500 500 (based on normal volume of 50/day) CSJ: 10 10 10 (based on normal volume of 1/day) *: Misreporting by the in-game price history table
Xylopia Gallente Center for Advanced Studies	Posted - 2010.05.29 00:53:00 - [173] Originally by: Grozen blah. I cannot help but point out that you seem trying too darn hard to represent/delegate CCP at this matter from the very beginning. Hmmm... let me guess, mister. Are you not milking this fatty cash cow just because you want to stand on high moral ground by not partaking this awesome endeavor? .....oh...so... you're mad! So be it then. I'll be a dirty moron and be richer than you! muhahahahaha!
Merouk Baas Gallente	Posted - 2010.05.29 01:09:00 - [174] Originally by: Panjho There should be a volume cutoff which halts NPC trades when the volume traded in a region exceeds the normal volume by a factor of 10x. How exactly do they calculate or decide what's "normal" volume? How does that formula deal with players manipulating the volume numbers via player-to-player trades? What if a savvy trader makes sure to trade 10 of his REAA's per day to his alt, thereby trigerring the NPC cutoff?
Alice Celadon	Posted - 2010.05.29 01:21:00 - [175] Guys, cool it. There are dozens of ways CCP could have prevented this. Inability to formulate ways to prevent mass CSJ, REAA reprocessing was not CCP's failing. Their failing was not identifying the problem beforehand. What's more interesting at this point is to speculate what possible fixes could be at hand. 10xin 10xout (ahem, which I would self-aggrandizingly point out I first suggested in this thread) seems like a good option. ... However I predict CCP's solution will be to do nothing. Anything else would require more coding and bug testing. If this is the case on the eve of June 8th, even I will dump a few decabillion isk into this machine.
Panjho	Posted - 2010.05.29 02:40:00 - [176] Originally by: Merouk Baas Originally by: Panjho There should be a volume cutoff which halts NPC trades when the volume traded in a region exceeds the normal volume by a factor of 10x. How exactly do they calculate or decide what's "normal" volume? Since this is intended to be an emergency system it doesn't have to be a tight bound on normal volume. Even at 100x, the cutoff would have prevented 97.4% of the anomalous REAA trades (300 vs. 11700).
Merouk Baas Gallente	Posted - 2010.05.29 04:38:00 - [177] No, but, I mean, do you expect a dev-person to go through each commodity and manually set a limit? There's thousands of them. Because otherwise any sort of moving average formula can be meta-gamed by players. You have the benefit of hindsight, knowing that REAA's specifically are the problem. Had they known that ahead of time, the issue wouldn't have happened.
Steve Thomas Minmatar	Posted - 2010.05.29 04:51:00 - [178] Edited by: Steve Thomas on 29/05/2010 04:53:13 Originally by: Merouk Baas No, but, I mean, do you expect a dev-person to go through each commodity and manually set a limit? There's thousands of them. Because otherwise any sort of moving average formula can be meta-gamed by players. You have the benefit of hindsight, knowing that REAA's specifically are the problem. Had they known that ahead of time, the issue wouldn't have happened. hes talking about an automated trade limmit, the system would bascialy "know" based on (say) a 100 day moveing average what the normal and peak volume "should" be Originally by: Alice Celadon Their failing was not identifying the problem beforehand. you left off the word Again at the end of that sentance . . . . . . . . a (Long) Guide to Pi
Jessica Verne	Posted - 2010.05.29 07:07:00 - [179] It wouldn't take a massive rollback to 'fix' this exploit. Its actually pretty simple: #1 Cancel all manufacturing jobs involving any of the newly producible items (Control towers, sov structures, etc.) #2 Remove all NPC sell orders for pos modules #3 Remove all Tier 4 PI goods (from market, player/corp hangers,etc) Fairly simple, and you'd be at a point where only people who have delivered the tower/etc they were baking have an advantage-- Its not hard to find these people, they have all delivered manufacturing jobs recently that are not possible through valid in-game (intended) mechanics. I think we can all agree that without this type of rollback, PI will be pre nerfed so bad no one will seriously want to even waste their time.
Panjho	Posted - 2010.05.29 07:34:00 - [180] Originally by: Merouk Baas No, but, I mean, do you expect a dev-person to go through each commodity and manually set a limit? There's thousands of them. Because otherwise any sort of moving average formula can be meta-gamed by players. You have the benefit of hindsight, knowing that REAA's specifically are the problem. Had they known that ahead of time, the issue wouldn't have happened. The system would be automatic and applied to all NPC goods; no foresight is needed. I don't care, and neither should you, if someone can meta-game an emergency cutoff. In case you haven't noticed, people are meta-gaming the system right now. The point of the emergency cutoff is not to regulate the economy. It's there to give CCP time to react to mistakes. We don't need a permanent, foolproof solution. We just need a speed bump. A 30-day moving average which triggers a cutoff at 100x volume would have given CCP the time to defuse this economic bomb.

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