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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1100
|
Posted - 2012.05.18 17:51:00 -
[121] - Quote
SetrakDark wrote:Just a matter of who cracks first, buyers or sellers. More like, who will crack first, and who second, buyers, sellers or CCP I'm thinking buyers first, CCP second http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
331
|
Posted - 2012.05.18 17:58:00 -
[122] - Quote
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if CCP takes the stance of "Well, we ****ed it up once before, but now we have ring mining in the pipeline and that'll shake it up, so lets just wait for that".
I guess not doing anything until ring mining would result in CCP cracking second though. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1100
|
Posted - 2012.05.18 18:04:00 -
[123] - Quote
corestwo wrote:I guess not doing anything until ring mining would result in CCP cracking second though. Bingo.
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
SetrakDark
DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium
7
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Posted - 2012.05.18 18:13:00 -
[124] - Quote
corestwo wrote:Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if CCP takes the stance of "Well, we ****ed it up once before, but now we have ring mining in the pipeline and that'll shake it up, so lets just wait for that".
I guess not doing anything until ring mining would result in CCP cracking second though.
Agreed.
I will admit nullsec is a little more tech crazy at 200k pu, but it's just an exaggeration of what we saw at 100k pu, not a fundamental difference. On the general economy side, there is nothing game-breaking about 200k or even 300k pu tech. People will pay for t2 stuff until the point that they won't, and then the price will stabilize.
There's just nothing that can happen that can make tech more "broken" than it already has been for over a year, so I highly doubt anything will happen to change CCP's established schedule for a t2 revamp. |
EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
30
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Posted - 2012.05.18 19:00:00 -
[125] - Quote
SetrakDark wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:like most t2 stuff is hilariously underpriced now the shock just keeps slowly rippling through and we're going to see a sudden shortage of t2 stuff in a little while That's exactly it. People all down the line say "**** it, I'm not paying for that", but they eventually will, at least at ~200k pu. Just a matter of who cracks first, buyers or sellers. Interesting times. it's actually making me consider just going **** it and reacting the stuff all the way down the line, so our attempts to jack the price don't get muffled by reactors |
Nomad I
University of Caille Gallente Federation
67
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Posted - 2012.05.19 08:43:00 -
[126] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:SetrakDark wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:like most t2 stuff is hilariously underpriced now the shock just keeps slowly rippling through and we're going to see a sudden shortage of t2 stuff in a little while That's exactly it. People all down the line say "**** it, I'm not paying for that", but they eventually will, at least at ~200k pu. Just a matter of who cracks first, buyers or sellers. Interesting times. it's actually making me consider just going **** it and reacting the stuff all the way down the line, so our attempts to jack the price don't get muffled by reactors
It's looking like the goons are getting f****** by one of the opponents. The price for Nanotransistors is at a level paying just the fuel costs. So even when you process the stuff self, the prices are down. I curious how long does it take before a crash sends tech to 160k |
Tobiaz
Spacerats
442
|
Posted - 2012.05.20 00:10:00 -
[127] - Quote
corestwo wrote:Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if CCP takes the stance of "Well, we ****ed it up once before, but now we have ring mining in the pipeline and that'll shake it up, so lets just wait for that".
I guess not doing anything until ring mining would result in CCP cracking second though. A pipeline several years long though.
A band-aid in the meantime would be adding moongoo to W-space moons. Not so much that it's actually worth fighting over, but enough to function as a pressure valve on OTEC shenanigans. So maybe give W-moons only 5% yield of K-moons in null or something.
Though I'll admit: I think OTEC is hilarious. Make Empire squirm, it will be magnificent. T2 mods are too common these days anyway, I'd wish CCP hadn't removed the level 5 skill requirements on them.
Year-old newbies flying T3 ships with full T2 fittings, all paid for with risk-free Incursions... it's just killing the achievement of player progression. No wonder even newer players complain getting bored, flying around in 'endgame' ships and mods. Operation WRITE DOWN ALL THE THINGS!!!-á Check out the list at http://bit.ly/wdatt Collecting and compiling all fixes and ideas for EVE. Looking for more editors! |
EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
70
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Posted - 2012.05.20 17:37:00 -
[128] - Quote
Nomad I wrote: It's looking like the goons are getting f****** by one of the opponents. The price for Nanotransistors is at a level paying just the fuel costs. So even when you process the stuff self, the prices are down. I curious how long does it take before a crash sends tech to 160k
yeah, hence why i want to be able to directly manipulate nano prices instead of having to deal with them as a muffling agent
issue is we haven't just ruined nano profitability we've made tons of t2 stuff unprofitable to make |
Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
3882
|
Posted - 2012.05.21 14:10:00 -
[129] - Quote
Tobiaz wrote:corestwo wrote:Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if CCP takes the stance of "Well, we ****ed it up once before, but now we have ring mining in the pipeline and that'll shake it up, so lets just wait for that".
I guess not doing anything until ring mining would result in CCP cracking second though. A pipeline several years long though. A band-aid in the meantime would be adding moongoo to W-space moons. Not so much that it's actually worth fighting over or putting POS on all moons in W-space, but enough to function as a pressure valve on OTEC shenanigans. So give W-moons only maybe 5% yield of K-moons in null or something? Though I'll admit: I think OTEC is hilarious. They'll have my blessing if they can make Empire squirm, it will be magnificent. T2 mods are too common these days anyway, I'd wish CCP hadn't removed the level 5 skill requirements on them. Year-old newbies flying T3 ships with full T2 fittings, all paid for with risk-free Incursions... it's just killing the achievement of player progression. No wonder even newer players complain getting bored, flying around in 'endgame' ships and mods.
I'm going to go ahead and guess that 0.0/low consume the lions share of T2 products.
Malcanis' Law: Any proposal justified on the basis that "it will benefit new players" is invariably to the greater advantage of older, richer players.
Things to do in EVE:-áhttp://swiftandbitter.com/eve/wtd/ |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1100
|
Posted - 2012.05.21 22:41:00 -
[130] - Quote
Spreadsheet (updated prices) : http://dl.eve-files.com/media/1205/EVE_reactions_v4f.zip Most important part image snapshot : http://dl.eve-files.com/media/1205/react220512.gif
Looks to me like fullerides are the best damn thing to react right now even with the current prices, hypersinaptic fibers second best, with nanotransistors and ferrogel nearly tied to 3rd place best things to react (ferrogel is slightly better, but not by very much).
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
338
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Posted - 2012.05.21 22:47:00 -
[131] - Quote
If I were to say, "wow, that isn't a whole lot of profit", I would be correct? |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1100
|
Posted - 2012.05.21 22:59:00 -
[132] - Quote
That's per tower. A fullerides chain would normally have 3 large gallente towers, or 2 large and 2 mediums. Not sure what the best sov fuel bonus is, but IIRC it's another -20%, right ? So a complete fullerides chain with best faction towers running in a max sov fuel bonus area would give you an extra 1.54 bil ISK/month compared to dumping all the materials on the market. Also, considering that you're probably not usually mining sylicates and hydrocarbons usually even if you probably can find those things quite easily in the area (but you'd be either making or importing carbon polymers anyway, so might as well pick a moon that has both and plop the first step tower on it, since a silo and a miner eat up the same CPU/grid anyway), that's actually 1.62 bil/month extra (yeah, negligible extra, but, eh).
So... YOU tell me... is it worth it or not ? ;) Probably not, but some might argue it is, at least for them. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1100
|
Posted - 2012.05.23 03:42:00 -
[133] - Quote
It's almost funny how people were clamoring to the idea that CCP will "save them" by "nerfing tech" in the Inferno expansion With another psychological hurdle down range, I guess the emerging cartel has now quite a bit of free time (until this autumn, the very least) to work their magic. Go, go, gadget technetium to 250k ! http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
340
|
Posted - 2012.05.23 05:08:00 -
[134] - Quote
Yeah, we can't push it all that much further right now until people accept the price and demand picks back up. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1100
|
Posted - 2012.05.23 05:14:00 -
[135] - Quote
Well, reacting tech is still decently profitable compared to reacting just about everything else, so I'd say prices were quite well accepted already with minimal reactor losses. Volumes of purchased T2 ships has not dropped significantly either, with a few exceptions that are not of much concern right now. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
Nomad I
University of Caille Gallente Federation
68
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 07:57:00 -
[136] - Quote
Akita T wrote:Go, go, gadget technetium to 250k !
Oh, look at this! Akita is going to be a bad goon copy. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
857
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 08:46:00 -
[137] - Quote
Little objection.
In order to make Tech go up, you have to sell less of it. Moons don't stop producing it though, so everybody in the cartel starts getting massive amounts of unsold stock.
Summer is coming, that is when demand drops and prices usually go down.
So, how are you going to convince all the cartel partecipants to not dump?
How is it more profitable selling X units at 250k when you could sell X * 3 at 150k? Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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SetrakDark
DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium
17
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Posted - 2012.05.24 13:14:00 -
[138] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:In order to make Tech go up, you have to sell less of it.
not necessarily
for almost 2 years now the tech price has been determined by the daily extraction + existing stockpiles from when it wasn't being consumed at full capacity. as stockpiles have effectively dried up and general demand has risen significantly just in the last few months, we are now going through the process of determining the actual highest market-clearing price where output meets demand. the decline in t2 consumed all down the line is a just a temporary adjustment to the massive price shock, which should mellow over time. this is, of course, speculation, but no one has yet put forth any kind of analysis to indicate that 80k, 100k, 150k, or 200k pu was the actual highest full capacity market-clearing price, though that obviously leaves it open to debate.
all the cartel has done is try to guess and test where that point is collectively, instead of letting the market move to that point in a more meandering and organic process. they are, in essence, speculating on with their own primary product.
in the real world speculators would just sit down and do the fundamental analysis necessary to estimate where the market clearing price will be, but that doesn't appeal to the vast majority of people in a video game, so just setting prices and seeing what happens is far more fun.
my guess is the result will be a sort of market-driven/cartel-directed hybrid, where they will set a price, and then it will stabilize at 50-75% of the difference in price gain, repeated until the highest market-clearing price is eventually reached. where that price is, nobody has so far produced a compelling argument; and if they have made one, they probably won;t share it. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1100
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 13:45:00 -
[139] - Quote
SetrakDark wrote:no one has yet put forth any kind of analysis to indicate that 80k, 100k, 150k, or 200k pu was the actual highest full capacity market-clearing price, though that obviously leaves it open to debate. Well, actually, going by late autumn 2009 (so, 3 years ago, when population levels were ever so slightly lower than today, but with less people T2-capable, and with ISK harder to earn, with GTC prices at about HALF of today's level, 280-300m/month) pre-dominion clearance levels, depending on exactly how many tech vs prom/dyspro moons there are (guesstimating a conservative number), shifting the bottleneck from a pair of minerals to a single mineral, assuming the market will accept AT LEAST similar prices (as opposed to higher, since ISK is easier to come by and more people are T2-capable due to passage of time), tech was very likely to reach at least 200k at the equilibrium point after stockpiles were gone BEFORE you take into account any of the other factors previously mentioned. Also consider that while existing stockpiles are indeed low, they're not quite gone yet, and this cartel price-fixing action effectively shifts most of the leftover stockpiles from speculators and old owners into current owner hands. All things considered, it would not be at all surprising if all newly extracted tech would still clear the market today even at 300k or maybe 350k once the full stockpile shift has happened and people resigned themselves to the new T2 ship price levels, if CCP does nothing until that point in time. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
Andre Vauban
Quantum Cats Syndicate
19
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 13:57:00 -
[140] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Little objection.
In order to make Tech go up, you have to sell less of it. Moons don't stop producing it though, so everybody in the cartel starts getting massive amounts of unsold stock.
Summer is coming, that is when demand drops and prices usually go down.
So, how are you going to convince all the cartel partecipants to not dump?
How is it more profitable selling X units at 250k when you could sell X * 3 at 150k?
But this is what is so amusing about OTEC. They don't care about making more isk. They are sitting on 100's of trillions of isk. They literally don't know what to do with all their isk. You are assuming they are playing the same game as you, they are not. They are doing this to mess with the rest of eve. |
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SetrakDark
DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium
17
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 14:04:00 -
[141] - Quote
yup, i'm basing my actions on similar back-of-the-envelope analysis; it is a very convincing argument
i just wanted to point out that there is no basis from which to privilege any of the past temporarily stable price points over any other, in my mind they are all still far beneath the point where people will permanently decrease the amount of t2 stuff they buy. |
SetrakDark
DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium
17
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 14:08:00 -
[142] - Quote
Andre Vauban wrote:But this is what is so amusing about OTEC. They don't care about making more isk. They are sitting on 100's of trillions of isk. They literally don't know what to do with all their isk. You are assuming they are playing the same game as you, they are not. They are doing this to mess with the rest of eve.
not really. not only can it all be banked for a possible future where income like this can't be achieved, but you have many small holders who can make good use of every single penny they get right now (all the smaller cfc holders, evoke, nc., solar, raiden). Basically the only two entities with more isk than they know what to do with are PL and goons, so you can reliably apply the basic precepts of rational actor models to otec behaviour. |
King Aires
Coffee Sipper's Club Biggby Coffee Fan Club
3
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 14:11:00 -
[143] - Quote
Akita T wrote:SetrakDark wrote:no one has yet put forth any kind of analysis to indicate that 80k, 100k, 150k, or 200k pu was the actual highest full capacity market-clearing price, though that obviously leaves it open to debate. Well, actually, going by late autumn 2009 (so, 3 years ago, when population levels were ever so slightly lower than today, but with less people T2-capable, and with ISK harder to earn, with GTC prices at about HALF of today's level, 280-300m/month) pre-dominion clearance levels, depending on exactly how many tech vs prom/dyspro moons there are (guesstimating a conservative number), shifting the bottleneck from a pair of minerals to a single mineral, assuming the market will accept AT LEAST similar prices (as opposed to higher, since ISK is easier to come by and more people are T2-capable due to passage of time), tech was very likely to reach at least 200k at the equilibrium point after stockpiles were gone BEFORE you take into account any of the other factors previously mentioned. Also consider that while existing stockpiles are indeed low, they're not quite gone yet, and this cartel price-fixing action effectively shifts most of the leftover stockpiles from speculators and old owners into current owner hands. All things considered, it would not be at all surprising if all newly extracted tech would still clear the market today even at 300k or maybe 350k once the full stockpile shift has happened and people resigned themselves to the new T2 ship price levels, if CCP does nothing until that point in time.
That is all nice, but average daily users is dead flat with aug-dec 2009 with jan-mar 2012 at just over 32k. Also T3 ships were only introduced a few short summer months before the Tech bottleneck. Also the FOTM is tier 3 BC's and T3 ships.
I really think you overestimate the average man's willingness to pay for T2 prices in pvp. If the price of T2 goes too high, no one will pvp with them, then there is little ship loss. I think VV is right in that to keep the price this high the "cartel" is going to have to sit on a crap load of Tech. Maybe that is their plan, to crash the market back to 10k when everyone else is planning on astronomical increases?! |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1100
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 14:20:00 -
[144] - Quote
Daily users is indeed at very similar levels, but as I mentioned, GTC/PLEX prices today are nearly double due to the fact ISK is easier to come by (incursions, PI, better ship loadouts, all agents easier to access and giving higher rewards) and the average "ISK earner" SP has gone up (alongside their expertise level). If anything, that is a strong indicator (not a guarantee, true) that people could accept actual T2 prices nearly double the previous levels if the tier3 BCs and T3 ships would not be an alternative at all at those price ranges. These are not a sufficiently good alternative at the old price ranges to justify an noteworthy usage volume shift from T2 ships to those others IMO, so price ranges are likely to go up at least a bit compared to back then, and with the old price ranges, tech at 200k is fairly certain to be the bottom stable price, not the top one. Again, not a certainty, but reasonable assumption. In case CCP does not do anything soon, of course. IMO, the main reason tech is not even higher is exactly this, the specter of the possibility that CCP might "do something soon" to "fix" it. In fact, it's only a matter of when and how much, not if. We're pretty sure CCP has something in the pipeline for it (ring mining, for instance). We just don't know when it will go live and how easy will it be to get the bottleneck stuff (vs non-bottleneck stuff). http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
King Aires
Coffee Sipper's Club Biggby Coffee Fan Club
3
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 17:26:00 -
[145] - Quote
Akita T wrote:"The Sky is almost certainly not going to fall on you tomorrow, unless of course God wills it to fall, then the sky is most certainly falling.
Way to give yourself an out there
btw, the price of Plex has only changed from its all time low in september 2009 of 275mil. For most of 2009 it was between 350 and 450mil and during fanfest it was spiking from manipulation.
So I don't see how your Plex is high = Tech can skyrocket theory works when the price of plex is not that out of line.
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Llyandrian
Livestock Science Exchange
64
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 17:31:00 -
[146] - Quote
Seen a nice boost in T3 demand recently, perhaps this is the explanation. |
TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
76
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 20:24:00 -
[147] - Quote
Akita T wrote: IMO, the main reason tech is not even higher is exactly this, the specter of the possibility that CCP might "do something soon" to "fix" it.
I have fond memories about the Tc "crash" when this was first announced. Tc dropped some 20%-25% in 5 days or so. Massive panic selling.
Oh btw, that was back when Tc was just breaking through 100K
And look at it today
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SetrakDark
DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium
17
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Posted - 2012.05.24 21:48:00 -
[148] - Quote
I agree with Akita about the long run. T2 ships are just too integral to a lot of success in anything beyond small gangs, and price in Eve is generally not a huge issue. I'd be willing to buy up to 250k if I thought people were similarly ready to accept that price, after that point I'd need to see or do some fundamental analysis about t2 demand before I was willing to risk any more bets on the price.
That said, the current run up came at a particularly bad time and all signs point to an imminent collapse of the price over the short term. I am very excited because catching falling knives is one of the most thrilling elements of the market game. Best of luck to everyone. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1100
|
Posted - 2012.05.24 23:30:00 -
[149] - Quote
King Aires wrote:Akita T wrote:"The Sky is almost certainly not going to fall on you tomorrow, unless of course God wills it to fall, then the sky is most certainly falling. Way to give yourself an out there More like "there are good odds that the sky will not fall in the next 4 months, but there's a decent chance it will fall in about 6 months, and it eventually has to fall either way ; we also don't know what the damage will be when it falls". But generally, yea, what you said. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
954
|
Posted - 2012.05.27 00:12:00 -
[150] - Quote
So, my dumb question was not that dumb after all, eh? Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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