Tc's been sticking at 100K for awhile now.

Breakout to happen soon (within a week or two) - Is my purely guesstimated err.. guess.

Based on what? Obvious manipulation attempt is obvious.

or soonGäó!

Based on what? Obvious manipulation attempt is obvious.

However, this outcome depends on if this is just an exaggerated seasonal slump or if, in fact, Eve really is dying (exaggerating of course, but you know what I mean).

I don't think it's an _exaggerated_ seasonal slump - But just the usual seasonal slump *combined* with the lack of new content in the Incarna expansion to draw in new/old players (thus making it look like an exaggerated slump)

Too bad for trader wallets that you can't short in EVE, eh ?

To me, all of that spells a significant demand drop for T2 ships in general...
...which would be understandable given the user count drop EVE has been experiencing lately (and for those still around, a general "shooty" activity level drop).
I can't say I understand what the deal with Hulks might be though. Then again, haven't been around that much for the past 3 months or so.

The "back to school" bump has been muted due to generally falling numbers from incarna.

Tech and derivatives have been dominated by stockpiles being cashed in. Nano stockpiles may have run out, whereas fullerides and straight tech have not yet done so.

I doubt that. Nanos are dominated by reaction towers and many low sec POS owners switched to something else for 4 week ago, when the price for nanos crashed. The last 2 weeks were dominated by a shortage because of less POS reactions. This is repeating now.

No mention of a moon re-balance in the winter expansion.

To the Techmobile!

Seems Tc is back on track?

Been at 100k+ for a week now

This might have to do with the jump in JF demand since a lot of tech goes to capital capacitors for JFs.

Tech now at 121.8k a unit.

Tech now at 121.8k a unit.


Have fun.

Whee, panic modes, those are the awesomest !!!
Too bad I won't be much around during the holidays.

P.S. I hear the goons are marching in force into Branch reinforcing POSes left and right. I might be wrong though, it was just a few unconfirmed bits of news. Can somebody confirm that's the case ? If that's true, I fully expect tech to finally "go cartel" to a large enough degree and even break 200k before any tech nerf announcements are made. But that's just wild speculations.

So we're back to Tc related reactions losing isk again. Any explanations besides duping?

I don't see why there will be "panic and crashing".

People will still want T2 stuff right up until the minute that the new sourced materials start hitting the market. Far more likely is a slow decline as you get within a month of the change, then a slightly steeper decline as the new material actually starts hitting the market down to whatever target area ccp is aiming for, if they dont f it up.

It will all be very anti-climactic.

Ring mining...the death of techs sky limit? Will be fun to see the panic and crashing

Same reason most prices inflate or deflate drastically...the speculators either hoarding or dumping their stocks. Soon as the change is official, I can guarantee the price bursts. Surely some interesting days ahead for tech.

You're assuming people have speculative stockpiles. The price has risen 50% and nothing has come to market besides what would be coming out of moons. Even if there were, you're suggesting that people who are holding through the fastest rise in a year, will suddenly panic sell as a mechanic change they know is coming gets introduced?

You basically made an off-the-cuff remark without putting any thought into it or having any knowledge of the subject, and now you look a little silly.

Holding a mountain of Tech you bought at 135k i bet!

stuff

gibberish

Hmmm Tc about to go nuclear?

there are no speculative stockpiles of tech left, it's just common sense

You forget lazy people with way too much unused ISK.
I am pretty sure there's still at least several million units sitting in random bored people's hangars.
Granted, they might never actually see the market again, and the entire stockpiles might only last for a few weeks, but who knows.

Several million units is nothing at this point. More importantly though, there's no actively traded stockpiles to be dumped into spikes and the like, that would counteract what I can do to the market. If someone's got a million units in a hangar it's because they forgot about it and I can ignore it.

you really should just ignore akita T's pathological need to be right even if it means resorting to semantics and "nitpicking" just fyi

No one wants to stick out their neck with a brave guess at how it might go?

Akita?

I stuck mine out with the "going nuclear" one - Must be someone else at the bat now

No one wants to stick out their neck with a brave guess at how it might go? Akita?

That's a lot of words to say "It will go as high as we can damn well get it to go before CCP finally steps in".

The Largo Embargo is strong with the goons and friends..

All null mats will be going up up and away.. and then fall like a rock, not as ccp steps in, but as they will most likely be motivated to up prioritize some changes before others..

I don't see it as a bad thing. The moons are there to be taken. If people don't feel pressed enough to go there and fight for them it's because they don't want or don't deserve them enough.

Come on, you can't seriously expect the remaining 95% of EVE players to take the game as seriously as the goons do? We can't kill that which has no life

That's a lot of words to say "It will go as high as we can damn well get it to go before CCP finally steps in".

You can't have missed the "too complicated" bit in the post though :)
It was basically "I can't tell you for sure, but if you INSIST on an answer, here is my best GUESS for now, and what can happen to make that guess end up being wrong" (easily verifiable possible events).

Well, yes, the gist of it might have been that "it will go as high as possible until CCP stops it".
However, it contained some hints as to how high that max value might reasonably be so that internal OTEC "friendly" same-price time-of-placement competition would not make it self-destruct in the long run.
And a warning that this will probably make CCP act sooner.
Also it contained the reasoning behind what else might happen until that time that CCP decides to intervene (what else goes down and why plus a very rough estimate of about how much).

It sounds like you are saying that you think there is a point where in-game market manipulation will cause CCP to step in. Not just this specific instance, but in general. Where do you think that line is ?

Asking someone to predict CCP's actions based on the players is like asking someone to predict what God will do. In this context, God actually exists, but that doesn't make predicting Its actions any easier.

The only definitive statement I'd be willing to make is that technetium will drop in price in the future and this drop in price will coincide with, at the very earliest, the announcement of a firm date for the introduction of ring mining.

Does anyone know what is the general assumed amount of Tech moons in the game ?

I can confirm that ncdot leadership channels have instructed their corps to not list for below 199kpu.

Why not 300k just for lulz ?

Looks like the bottom is ready to fall out of tech and derivatives.

Dominion market analysis : sky's the limit on technetium (long term) started by Akita T

I think this one deserves to stay alive

It doesn't matter where the tech is processed. In the end it's the total market value that gives you the profit. And when nanotransistors don't give an noticeable additional profit because of the tower and transport cost, moon goo owners will not do it.

Is the cartel already failing?

It's a standoff between buyers accepting the new price and sellers maintaining it. Theoretically it's easier for the smaller number of sellers to collude to fix the price, and so far they've managed to stay firm.

However, there is a lot of pressure building up in raw tech, and while time is on the side of the cartel, it does constantly wear away at their collusion. Buyers will eventually accept the new price, if the cartel doesn't crack first.

I have noticed somebody coming by to clear out the sells below 200k pu, so if you're a primary producer who needs quick cash, just list at 199999.99 instead of selling to a buy order, and whomever is keeping the price nice and tidy will scoop it up from you.

like most t2 stuff is hilariously underpriced now the shock just keeps slowly rippling through and we're going to see a sudden shortage of t2 stuff in a little while

Just a matter of who cracks first, buyers or sellers.

I guess not doing anything until ring mining would result in CCP cracking second though.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if CCP takes the stance of "Well, we ****ed it up once before, but now we have ring mining in the pipeline and that'll shake it up, so lets just wait for that".


I guess not doing anything until ring mining would result in CCP cracking second though.

That's exactly it. People all down the line say "**** it, I'm not paying for that", but they eventually will, at least at ~200k pu. Just a matter of who cracks first, buyers or sellers.

Interesting times.

it's actually making me consider just going **** it and reacting the stuff all the way down the line, so our attempts to jack the price don't get muffled by reactors

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if CCP takes the stance of "Well, we ****ed it up once before, but now we have ring mining in the pipeline and that'll shake it up, so lets just wait for that".

I guess not doing anything until ring mining would result in CCP cracking second though.

It's looking like the goons are getting f****** by one of the opponents. The price for Nanotransistors is at a level paying just the fuel costs. So even when you process the stuff self, the prices are down. I curious how long does it take before a crash sends tech to 160k

A pipeline several years long though.

A band-aid in the meantime would be adding moongoo to W-space moons. Not so much that it's actually worth fighting over or putting POS on all moons in W-space, but enough to function as a pressure valve on OTEC shenanigans. So give W-moons only maybe 5% yield of K-moons in null or something?

Though I'll admit: I think OTEC is hilarious. They'll have my blessing if they can make Empire squirm, it will be magnificent.

T2 mods are too common these days anyway, I'd wish CCP hadn't removed the level 5 skill requirements on them. Year-old newbies flying T3 ships with full T2 fittings, all paid for with risk-free Incursions... it's just killing the achievement of player progression.

No wonder even newer players complain getting bored, flying around in 'endgame' ships and mods.

Go, go, gadget technetium to 250k !

In order to make Tech go up, you have to sell less of it.

no one has yet put forth any kind of analysis to indicate that 80k, 100k, 150k, or 200k pu was the actual highest full capacity market-clearing price, though that obviously leaves it open to debate.

Little objection.

In order to make Tech go up, you have to sell less of it.
Moons don't stop producing it though, so everybody in the cartel starts getting massive amounts of unsold stock.

Summer is coming, that is when demand drops and prices usually go down.


So, how are you going to convince all the cartel partecipants to not dump?

How is it more profitable selling X units at 250k when you could sell X * 3 at 150k?

But this is what is so amusing about OTEC. They don't care about making more isk. They are sitting on 100's of trillions of isk. They literally don't know what to do with all their isk. You are assuming they are playing the same game as you, they are not. They are doing this to mess with the rest of eve.

Well, actually, going by late autumn 2009 (so, 3 years ago, when population levels were ever so slightly lower than today, but with less people T2-capable, and with ISK harder to earn, with GTC prices at about HALF of today's level, 280-300m/month) pre-dominion clearance levels, depending on exactly how many tech vs prom/dyspro moons there are (guesstimating a conservative number), shifting the bottleneck from a pair of minerals to a single mineral, assuming the market will accept AT LEAST similar prices (as opposed to higher, since ISK is easier to come by and more people are T2-capable due to passage of time), tech was very likely to reach at least 200k at the equilibrium point after stockpiles were gone BEFORE you take into account any of the other factors previously mentioned.
Also consider that while existing stockpiles are indeed low, they're not quite gone yet, and this cartel price-fixing action effectively shifts most of the leftover stockpiles from speculators and old owners into current owner hands.
All things considered, it would not be at all surprising if all newly extracted tech would still clear the market today even at 300k or maybe 350k once the full stockpile shift has happened and people resigned themselves to the new T2 ship price levels, if CCP does nothing until that point in time.

"The Sky is almost certainly not going to fall on you tomorrow, unless of course God wills it to fall, then the sky is most certainly falling.

IMO, the main reason tech is not even higher is exactly this, the specter of the possibility that CCP might "do something soon" to "fix" it.

Way to give yourself an out there

So, my dumb question was not that dumb after all, eh?

careful now, VV, go too hard and you might chafe.

Isn't it amazing how Technetium is religiously following trend lines I drawn months ago? (Feel free to check past charts).

I missed them VV but based on history I bet my sell patterns roughly match your graphs.