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The most detailed Dominion market analysis so far ( BIG ! )

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Vilgan Mazran Aperture Harmonics K162	Posted - 2010.09.25 16:41:00 - [1141] The big question when investing in tech is, imo, when will comets and/or some other major change effecting supply and demand hit. My guess is winter 2011 so as long as you get out before August 2011 you should be good ;P I don't actually feel confident enough in that to mess around in the tech market tho. Good chance there's another 40% or more to be made, but it'd be a major bummer if they switched some blueprints around at the last minute for this expansion (for example).
corestwo Goonfleet Investment Banking	Posted - 2010.09.25 23:51:00 - [1142] Originally by: Vilgan Mazran The big question when investing in tech is, imo, when will comets and/or some other major change effecting supply and demand hit. My guess is winter 2011 so as long as you get out before August 2011 you should be good ;P I don't actually feel confident enough in that to mess around in the tech market tho. Good chance there's another 40% or more to be made, but it'd be a major bummer if they switched some blueprints around at the last minute for this expansion (for example). Well it took them, what, five years to do anything about prom/dyspro? Less, I guess, but if they stay true to form its got awhile. ;) (They probably would react faster this time but time will tell)
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.11.27 08:50:00 - [1143] Edited by: Akita T on 27/11/2010 08:52:02 Originally by: Vilgan Mazran My guess is winter 2011 so as long as you get out before August 2011 you should be good ;P Well, CCP did say there's a second half to the "Christmas Surprise", but then again, something as big as introducing comets without any SiSi tests is quite unlikely, and it looks like for now Incarna has most of the spotlight anyway, so, for now, I'm willing to bet that IF comets ever come at all anymore, it won't be before the winter of 2012, minimum... P.S. ROFL, this thread has now broken the NUMBER OF VIEWS that the " Market Discussion Resource Thread " sticky has (100+k) _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2011.01.17 04:00:00 - [1144] Well, with some not so minor bumps and bruises, price of technetium seems to have ON AVERAGE almost linearly increased at a slightly lower rate than it's been increasing in the past two months or so from next to nothing since the patch (plus another few months or so before the patch, but that was mostly speculation noise) to almost 75k nowadays. Big bump right before and after the patch, speculation-driven surely, a big bruise a short while after in late January that recovered relatively quickly, two big "resistance to change" plateaus most of the spring and then in early summer, another noticeable bump upwards starting in late August and fading early October last year, then and back to near-linear in the past two months. All the while, JIta-traded volumes have been hovering around the 1 mil daily units mark for the past half year. Not quite at the 120k-ish I feared//predicted it could reach within as little as 9 months back before the patch (and before I realized just how large the technetium stockpiles could be), but still an impressive climb, and it might as well GET there or even go above it before this year is over if still nothing changes in the way moon minerals can be obtained. So, if CCP took more than a year off from the issue of moon minerals, with no peep about any of it, and with major efforts going towards Incursion and Incarna most of this entire year... who wants to bet how long it will take CCP to do anything about it ? _ Make ISK\|\|Build\|\|React\|\|1k papercuts _
Kaaii Caldari KaaiiNet Holding Executor Corp KAAII-NET	Posted - 2011.01.17 10:58:00 - [1145] I have 27 mil I stocked back in 2007-8 Can I help? According to Oveur, existing LSAA's already anchored will stay there. kieron Director of Community Relations,
StuRyan	Posted - 2011.01.17 11:39:00 - [1146] So uhm - whats the feeling about t2 atm?
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2011.01.17 13:45:00 - [1147] Quote: who wants to bet how long it will take CCP to do anything about it ? Why would CCP have to do anything about this? - Auditing & consulting When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
PinkFish	Posted - 2011.01.17 13:51:00 - [1148] Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Why would CCP have to do anything about this? Because they did several things about Dyspro. However, if historical action is evidence of current intent, they should start to consider action when we are above 150k.
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2011.01.17 18:54:00 - [1149] Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Quote: who wants to bet how long it will take CCP to do anything about it ? Why would CCP have to do anything about this? Because the justification behind the Dominion change was that it's bad to have a "big point income source" (in form of either promethium or dysprosium moons back then), so their stated goals were to "even out" the prices of moon minerals in such a way that multiple moongoos would be relatively valuable (valuable enough to deserve fighting over, anyway) but none of them TOO valuable. In the very short run (for about half a year tops), it sort of worked, but now, it's roughly halfway back to the old situation, just with the moongoos reversed. So, if you are to believe their initial claims as to why they changed anything, they would have to want to change stuff again soon. How soon after they realize they should do something and triggered by what price levels, that's a whole different story, however it's the story we actually care for _ Make ISK\|\|Build\|\|React\|\|1k papercuts _
corestwo Goonfleet Investment Banking	Posted - 2011.01.17 19:22:00 - [1150] From the perspective of "point income sources are bad" its even worse than it was now, since all the tech is in the northern regions.

SetrakDark DarkCorp Legion	Posted - 2011.01.17 19:29:00 - [1151] It looks like Neod's set for a bounce. I don't know the t2 production numbers behind its demand, but market supplies got cleaned out at the low 20s pu, and now it looks like it will settle around 30k pu, short term at least. Considering its regional distribution is pretty much the exact opposite of tech, if it continues to climb while tech continues to stagnate, then that might take off a lot of the pressure to rejig based on wealth concentration. Just my half-baked thought for the day.
RAW23	Posted - 2011.01.17 19:35:00 - [1152] Originally by: SetrakDark It looks like Neod's set for a bounce. I don't know the t2 production numbers behind its demand, but market supplies got cleaned out at the low 20s pu, and now it looks like it will settle around 30k pu, short term at least. Considering its regional distribution is pretty much the exact opposite of tech, if it continues to climb while tech continues to stagnate, then that might take off a lot of the pressure to rejig based on wealth concentration. Just my half-baked thought for the day. I would hardly say tech is stagnating . Seems pretty steady at 75 now and if Akita would just move his 500k order up a bit ...
SetrakDark DarkCorp Legion	Posted - 2011.01.17 19:42:00 - [1153] Originally by: RAW23 I would hardly say tech is stagnating . Seems pretty steady at 75 now and if Akita would just move his 500k order up a bit ... Fair enough. It's open to interpretation, but my language was definitely unjustifiably strong. To clarify, I personally think it will be sitting between 65k-75k pu for a long time. My guess is that every time it noses up to 75k, another few stockpiles will get cashed in, then we see the dip to the sixties and settling in low 70s again for another couple weeks or so, repeat ad nauseam.
PinkFish	Posted - 2011.01.17 20:03:00 - [1154] Originally by: SetrakDark Originally by: RAW23 I would hardly say tech is stagnating . Seems pretty steady at 75 now and if Akita would just move his 500k order up a bit ... Fair enough. It's open to interpretation, but my language was definitely unjustifiably strong. To clarify, I personally think it will be sitting between 65k-75k pu for a long time. My guess is that every time it noses up to 75k, another few stockpiles will get cashed in, then we see the dip to the sixties and settling in low 70s again for another couple weeks or so, repeat ad nauseam. ^ Also note that whenever tech takes a quick rise up a few K like it did last weekend traders who are ill suited for long term investing buy in thinking it will break out and they will see a good return. Then stocks get released and we have weeks of little traders slowly quitting their investment and taking a loss. Tech will drop again, we'll probably see mid 60s again before we break 75k on an upswing.
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2011.01.17 20:42:00 - [1155] Originally by: RAW23 Seems pretty steady at 75 now and if Akita would just move his 500k order up a bit ... Nu-uh, I like my EVE-Mon-based technetium price alert If wallet goes up much, tech just broke 75k _ Make ISK\|\|Build\|\|React\|\|1k papercuts _
Natasha Nikolaev	Posted - 2011.01.23 01:08:00 - [1156] Originally by: Akita T Originally by: RAW23 Seems pretty steady at 75 now and if Akita would just move his 500k order up a bit ... Nu-uh, I like my EVE-Mon-based technetium price alert If wallet goes up much, tech just broke 75k how about you move it to 85 and then you'll know when it has just broke 85.
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2011.01.23 02:52:00 - [1157] Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev how about you move it to 85 and then you'll know when it has just broke 85. I'll put a new batch up at 80k when this one's gone, then another batch at 85k when the one at 80k is gone, and so on _ Make ISK\|\|Build\|\|React\|\|1k papercuts _
Capitalist P1g	Posted - 2011.01.25 23:36:00 - [1158] Edited by: Capitalist P1g on 25/01/2011 23:36:51 Originally by: PinkFish Tech will drop again, we'll probably see mid 60s again before we break 75k on an upswing. You were saying?
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2011.01.26 02:12:00 - [1159] Well, SOMEBODY was in a hurry. I don't expect it to last long though. But I'm very open to being pleasantly surprised. _ Make ISK\|\|Build\|\|React\|\|1k papercuts _
SetrakDark DarkCorp Legion	Posted - 2011.01.26 02:21:00 - [1160] ya, i wouldn't get too excited about something that's just going to end up right back in sell orders. I doubt people are buying now to hold long...not at 75k anyway.

Caldariftw123	Posted - 2011.01.26 02:25:00 - [1161] I bought it all, and then promptly jet canned it into a random solar system safe spot for fun. That's a lot of competition removed from the market and price should rocket!
PinkFish	Posted - 2011.01.26 16:48:00 - [1162] Originally by: Capitalist P1g Edited by: Capitalist P1g on 25/01/2011 23:36:51 Originally by: PinkFish Tech will drop again, we'll probably see mid 60s again before we break 75k on an upswing. You were saying? It did. I re-bought at 66-67k two days before it broke 75k.
StuRyan	Posted - 2011.01.27 11:17:00 - [1163] Edited by: StuRyan on 27/01/2011 11:17:48 Originally by: PinkFish Originally by: Capitalist P1g Edited by: Capitalist P1g on 25/01/2011 23:36:51 Originally by: PinkFish Tech will drop again, we'll probably see mid 60s again before we break 75k on an upswing. You were saying? It did. I re-bought at 66-67k two days before it broke 75k. Just my 2 cents but those who are lucky enough to cap a tech should make it their duty not to let these prices get out of hand.... e.g. to keep it at 75k reason being if its stable below the prices of Dyps before the patch, something to fight over - if prices get stupid then we may just be back to square 1, a complete overhaul of moon goo. Currently atm - yes the biggest NAP train holds them so grow some and come get em.
PinkFish	Posted - 2011.01.27 13:26:00 - [1164] Originally by: StuRyan Edited by: StuRyan on 27/01/2011 11:17:48 Originally by: PinkFish Originally by: Capitalist P1g Edited by: Capitalist P1g on 25/01/2011 23:36:51 Originally by: PinkFish Tech will drop again, we'll probably see mid 60s again before we break 75k on an upswing. You were saying? It did. I re-bought at 66-67k two days before it broke 75k. Just my 2 cents but those who are lucky enough to cap a tech should make it their duty not to let these prices get out of hand.... e.g. to keep it at 75k reason being if its stable below the prices of Dyps before the patch, something to fight over - if prices get stupid then we may just be back to square 1, a complete overhaul of moon goo. Currently atm - yes the biggest NAP train holds them so grow some and come get em. There are natural barriers to tech rising too fast in the psychology of stockpile holders. Tech will bounce off of the prices they decide to sell at. These prices are generally easy to predict. CCP will fix moon goo again regardless of what we do. This is good, as another major dynamic change will create another bottleneck for us to get rich on. Changes benefit the traders, while a stable system only benefits the largest alliances.
StuRyan	Posted - 2011.01.27 13:59:00 - [1165] Originally by: PinkFish There are natural barriers to tech rising too fast in the psychology of stockpile holders. Tech will bounce off of the prices they decide to sell at. These prices are generally easy to predict. CCP will fix moon goo again regardless of what we do. This is good, as another major dynamic change will create another bottleneck for us to get rich on. Changes benefit the traders, while a stable system only benefits the largest alliances. I would have to ask why does ccp need to do anything? It's creating conflict in the North of the game, I can now see why the south wasn't Chosen as the new bottleneck (its an area full of conflict itself). I am not saying they have it the worst becuase they still have a nice source of passive income.
Caldariftw123	Posted - 2011.01.27 14:03:00 - [1166] Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 27/01/2011 14:03:54 Originally by: StuRyan Originally by: PinkFish There are natural barriers to tech rising too fast in the psychology of stockpile holders. Tech will bounce off of the prices they decide to sell at. These prices are generally easy to predict. CCP will fix moon goo again regardless of what we do. This is good, as another major dynamic change will create another bottleneck for us to get rich on. Changes benefit the traders, while a stable system only benefits the largest alliances. I would have to ask why does ccp need to do anything? It's creating conflict in the North of the game, I can now see why the south wasn't Chosen as the new bottleneck (its an area full of conflict itself). I am not saying they have it the worst becuase they still have a nice source of passive income. Because they want dynamic, moving conflict. Half of 0.0 is empty because it's not worth keeping. Distribute wealth all over and it a) might put an end to massive power blocs and let smaller corps/alliances carve out a piece and b) spread the conflict zones for those big alliances that CAN hold together large amounts of space that aren't concentrated around specific hotzones.
StuRyan	Posted - 2011.01.27 14:24:00 - [1167] Edited by: StuRyan on 27/01/2011 14:23:53 Originally by: Caldariftw123 Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 27/01/2011 14:03:54 Originally by: StuRyan Originally by: PinkFish There are natural barriers to tech rising too fast in the psychology of stockpile holders. Tech will bounce off of the prices they decide to sell at. These prices are generally easy to predict. CCP will fix moon goo again regardless of what we do. This is good, as another major dynamic change will create another bottleneck for us to get rich on. Changes benefit the traders, while a stable system only benefits the largest alliances. I would have to ask why does ccp need to do anything? It's creating conflict in the North of the game, I can now see why the south wasn't Chosen as the new bottleneck (its an area full of conflict itself). I am not saying they have it the worst becuase they still have a nice source of passive income. Because they want dynamic, moving conflict. Half of 0.0 is empty because it's not worth keeping. Distribute wealth all over and it a) might put an end to massive power blocs and let smaller corps/alliances carve out a piece and b) spread the conflict zones for those big alliances that CAN hold together large amounts of space that aren't concentrated around specific hotzones. Distribute wealth and you get nothing to fight over.
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2011.01.28 09:13:00 - [1168] Since I'll be away on another vacation with limited or perhaps even no internet connectivity for about a week starting in a few hours, I left a "gift of technetium" on the market yet again Enjoy the 1 mil units of technetium at 85k a piece, and the tiny bonus of 2 mil nanotransistors at 5k Wondering how much (if any) will sell until the end of the next weekend, when I'll almost surely be back... _ Make ISK\|\|Build\|\|React\|\|1k papercuts _
Gnulpie Minmatar Miner Tech	Posted - 2011.01.28 09:20:00 - [1169] Technetium price is at the moment purely driven by speculators and not by demand. Why? Because the products like platinum technite and to a much lesser degree fluxed condensates are a lot cheaper than their components. If there would be a high demand from manufacturers then especially the PT would be bought off already a good while ago.
Akita T Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2011.01.28 13:02:00 - [1170] More like nanotransistors and fullerides instead of platinum technite, but yeah, you're generally right... right now, this huge bump in technetium is most likely somebody who wants to make a quick buck manipulating it upwards. However, it might just be that the increased price level for technetium sticks (since just about everybody realized that the prediction I made over a year ago is more or less right on the money), and in a few days you might also see platinum technite going up, and by the end of the other week, nano//full might also jump up accordingly. Of course, it could correct itself and end up hovering around 75k for another while with PT/nano/full just barely going up. I guess we'll have to wait and see how long it takes for everything to go up noticeably (because the only sure thing is, they will go up if CCP doesn't change something again soon). _ Make ISK\|\|Build\|\|React\|\|1k papercuts _



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