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Commander Jameson 101
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Posted - 2011.05.16 09:50:00 -
[1411]
 Originally by: Weaselior
on a related note wtb erebus bpo
Erebus BPO For Sale
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.05.20 12:25:00 -
[1412]
looks like its about to jump again from 115k to 130k this weekend. Or am i wrong?  only a small ammount of orders between those 2 prices.
175k in 2 months 
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.20 13:29:00 -
[1413]
I've been hesitant to make any analysis because it's been so chaotic lately. I think what we're seeing right now is a lot of downward pressure across the board as the supercap arms race continues in the north, and alliances are depleting any and all reserves. I also believe we're in a transition phase where there is more raw technetium because all of the primary producers who were doing reactions with freshly-mined tech (morsus mihi and majesta especially) have been replaced by people who aren't yet secure enough to invest their time and isk in direct reactions (especially the venal tech, which is still a hot zone). Therefore, we are likely to see a spike in fullerides, followed later by a spike in tech as new secondary reactions go on line.
Long story short, the downward pressure is temporary, and when it does go up, it's going to go way up.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.20 15:11:00 -
[1414]
Originally by: Wabs
looks like its about to jump again from 115k to 130k this weekend. Or am i wrong? only a small ammount of orders between those 2 prices.
Still lots of stock up there, and we may continue to see big cash-ins like we have for the last week (500k, 300k, couple of 200k), so I definitely wouldn't get too excited for the weekend.
Originally by: Wabs
175k in 2 months
I think so. My guess is that in around 1-2 months we'll see a short peak to 175k-200k, followed by a long crash to 150-160k as everyone cashes in. Then those who held through the peak and crash will be able to cash in at the true peak of 225k+, wherever it is that t2 finally gets too expensive and people actually start buying other item types instead.
I'm getting nervous about moon material rebalances and anxious to get a titan and supercarrier, so I'll probably try to get out on the upcoming rise to 175kish. I'll try to get out like a week before the last spike at 160-165k pu hopefully. Then everyone with bigger balls than me can play chicken with each other and russian roulette with ccp. Too intense for my faint heart.
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2011.05.20 16:25:00 -
[1415]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Then everyone with bigger balls than me can play chicken with each other and russian roulette with ccp. Too intense for my faint heart.
Speaking of which...when this month is CSM6 summit actually happening?
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.20 16:39:00 -
[1416]
As we speak (type) I believe.
I did see a lot of NC and Goon tech for sale this week and they're basically running the CSM this year, maybe they know something we don't?
:tinfoil:
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Spectre Wraith
Darwin Inc.
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Posted - 2011.05.20 17:05:00 -
[1417]
Edited by: Spectre Wraith on 20/05/2011 17:12:07
Edited by: Spectre Wraith on 20/05/2011 17:11:34
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
As we speak (type) I believe.
I did see a lot of NC and Goon tech for sale this week and they're basically running the CSM this year, maybe they know something we don't?
:tinfoil:
1. The NC and Goons have always been selling off Tech. Not to mention the Econ stating no significant amounts were being stockpiled.
2. CCP don't generally react mildly to NDA info being acted upon ingame (pirate cruiser incident).
3. If the value were to drastically change and they knew it, I don't think the actions being taken up north would be the same. (NC wouldn't try to defend/would move, etc)
I wouldn't really tinfoil to much over someone selling their Tech when they use it to fund the SC arms race.
E - Any major reblancing I think would come in the form of comets in any immediate timeframe. I don't think they'd rebalance the T2 inputs so soon considering the time it took them to devalue Dysp/prom. Or, maybe come out of the blue and give Thullium a kick in the pants and surprise everyone.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.20 17:09:00 -
[1418]
unless that's what they want us to think....
:tinfoil:
:steel-lined bunker:
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.22 03:00:00 -
[1419]
Originally by: Spectre Wraith
Any major reblancing I think would come in the form of comets in any immediate timeframe.
Two words : Technetium alchemy.
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2011.05.22 07:41:00 -
[1420]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
I did see a lot of NC and Goon tech for sale this week and they're basically running the CSM this year, maybe they know something we don't?
:tinfoil:
not like they are preparing for an invasion or anything...
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.22 14:17:00 -
[1421]
Which would make a convenient cover...
:petroleum jelly:
(quit quoting me, I was joking)
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2011.05.23 00:38:00 -
[1422]
I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.23 01:31:00 -
[1423]
Edited by: Akita T on 23/05/2011 01:33:52
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev
I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
No, the hilarious part is that allegedly they still don't know exactly why tech is doing this, according to words spoken by the economist at the latest fanfest... if you are to take what he said at face value, that is.
Edit : watch from around 45:25 to around 47:30. Edited link to jump you to the start of the relevant section.
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.05.23 08:29:00 -
[1424]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev
I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
If they did, would they say so?
There's not a single reason to emasculate every single market so it becomes a zero volatility flatness of boredom.
If Dr. Eyjo fiddled with markets like some interventists would do, then EvE would become completely fake and crap.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2011.05.24 00:07:00 -
[1425]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev
I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
If they did, would they say so?
There's not a single reason to emasculate every single market so it becomes a zero volatility flatness of boredom.
If Dr. Eyjo fiddled with markets like some interventists would do, then EvE would become completely fake and crap.
If you were CCP, with a dedicated economist, and you said, "look, we gonna fix yo moongoo problems, spread the wealth n sh*t" and instead just ended up replacing dysp/prom with technetium which will probably end up with an even higher share of the total moongoo value than dysp/prom had and of which a vast majority of moons are in the northern region, would you say anything? Probably not.
If you're implying they knew, believed it would end this way and purposely did it anyways I'm going to bet against you. As others have pointed out in various places, 0.0 systems w/o tech are pretty unattractive right now and that's a lot of 0.0. Not what CCP wanted/wants.
Market intervention is exactly what they did when they made the changes in dec '09, they just F'ed it up, which seems hard to do when you literally have all of the relevant data to make fairly accurate predictions. Predictions Akita and others made through educated guesswork.
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slickboy Danny
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Posted - 2011.05.28 22:32:00 -
[1426]
allrighty. I¦ve waited long enough. about to unload my stock, the maximum profit per day is closing in on me. it¦s been a fun ride! 
aint nothin' wrong with a lil bump 'n grind... |
oniplE
MeMento.
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Posted - 2011.05.28 23:34:00 -
[1427]
Edited by: oniplE on 28/05/2011 23:34:56
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 23/05/2011 01:37:12
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev
I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
No, the hilarious part is that allegedly they still don't know exactly why tech is doing this, according to words spoken by the economist at the latest fanfest... if you are to take what he said at face value, that is, it's obvious he's trying to not say too much but also appearing quite weird in the process, and he does claim it's not hoarding.
Edit : watch from around 45:25 to around 47:30. Edited link to jump you to the start of the relevant section.
He does know, he says they dont know of any other reason apart from insufficient supply, which is basically what's going on.
However, I very much doubt there's no hoarding going on. Many people invested in technetium and are holding on to it, i did the same.
I do think technetium is becoming a bit of a risk, although CCP is notoriously slow in balancing stuff like this, it is only a matter of time before they step in and introduce some tweaks. When they do, those people who have been hoarding the technetium will dump it on the market. It's a fire sale waiting to happen.
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Signature starts here |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.06.03 19:15:00 -
[1428]
Bit surprised we haven't had any comments here in a bit.
Market looks "interesting" atm 
Should be room for at least 3 or 4 semi-sized speculation posts
BIG Lottery |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.03 21:33:00 -
[1429]
It's too crazy to even speculate. My "guess" is that we have a continued dump of any and all stocks by current and past moon holders to fund the war combined with the new holders not yet setting up the reaction chains that the old holders had going. In the long run I'm bullish, as this just means more stockpile depletion at lower prices, but I'd also personally like it to spike sooner and lower because I'd like to get out due to nerf fears, as opposed to waiting for later and higher.
If you're bullish about the possibility of a nerf, then this glut of supply is great. However, the sooner you think a nerf will happen, the worse the current situation is. I think fullerides are actually the best buy right now, as those will spike long before tech does, so you can cash in and then gtfo.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.06.03 21:58:00 -
[1430]
This conflict should eventually make for a very nice "buy in" point indeed, with an even quicker recovery afterwards.
Again, granted, only if CCP does nothing to the T2 production chain before that has a chance to happen.
Then again, at this point, it looks doubtful they'd do anything about it this year - too busy with Incarna and various offshoots of it needed urgently that went far beyond their initial time estimates.
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2011.06.04 06:34:00 -
[1431]
Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 04/06/2011 06:38:10
Originally by: oniplE
He does know, he says they dont know of any other reason apart from insufficient supply, which is basically what's going on.
However, I very much doubt there's no hoarding going on. Many people invested in technetium and are holding on to it, i did the same.
Insufficient supply and insufficient supply reaching the market are two different things. The former causing prices to rise...anyone could tell you that. The latter is what the doc was talking about, and Akita was referring to, and that's what the doc can't answer. By saying they didn't see signs of hoarding he wasn't saying no one is stockpiling tech, just that no entity(s) is stockpiling to the point that it's the cause of the price rocketing. Think De Beers and diamonds.
My personal feeling is that they won't likely change T2 production again until they can answer that question and they decide the answer they get is it's due to poor balance. Otherwise I'd say they're more likely to just change moon distributions so the north doesn't have all the cheddar.
Of course if poor balance isn't the answer or they never figure out the answer and tech ends up above 200K and it's pure craziness, they will eventually change it anyways. But I don't see that being much of a possibility until next Spring/Summer expansion for the same reason given by Akita: they've already got more than enough on their plate for winter.
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TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.06.04 18:48:00 -
[1432]
Edited by: TornSoul on 04/06/2011 18:49:05
Personally I think it's stock dumping we are seeing. People starting to be nervous about a nerf in the next patch, that isn't that far off.
When I glanced at the market the other day there was something like 5-7 200K+ sell orders there.
That's stock being dumped imo.
One tech-moon yields about 70K/month - So one 200K stack is 3 tech moons for a month (round numbers)
I just don't see the war having had time to have that effect yet (new owners dumping as they got no reactions going yet)
Ofc, some of the old holders might have been stockpiling - and are now dumping. I won't rule that out. But my feel is that their issue is not so much ISK as it's manpower...
So - My bet is on nerf scared dumpers
BIG Lottery |
Black Madness
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Posted - 2011.06.04 19:33:00 -
[1433]
There was a huge sell order, of 1.2 M units.
After few minutes, it disappered and was split into several 100K units sell orders.
Then those orders began to roll downwards, taking down lemmings :) (it all began around 123K p/u price).
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.06.04 19:44:00 -
[1434]
3.2 million units have sold in the last 2.5 days. 4 million for 3.5 days. A few x00K unit orders left and then back down to the x0K orders. Not sure how long they will last at the going rate, but I have to agree with Akita T that we saw some dumping, but in the long term sky is the limit. GO TECH!
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.06.04 23:59:00 -
[1435]
One of the mass dumps was actually raiden., not the NC. They were the ones who were tremendously unsubtle, putting up ~1.4m units in identical stacks put up seconds apart.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.05 00:32:00 -
[1436]
Originally by: Weaselior
One of the mass dumps was actually raiden., not the NC. They were the ones who were tremendously unsubtle, putting up ~1.4m units in identical stacks put up seconds apart.
Just about to write this. Confirmed.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.06.05 00:49:00 -
[1437]
Not really up to date with 0.0 politics, but this "Raiden." alliance looks like a fairly new one and somehow fighting against both NC and DRF ? Or did I get something wrong ? Maybe something changed recently ?
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.05 00:53:00 -
[1438]
They're the useful remnants of IT alliance that allied with WN as the key non-mercenary antagonists (protagonists?) for the early northern invasion. They are DRF-aligned because WN is DRF-aligned.
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Khanid Voltar
Night's Dawn Investment Fund
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Posted - 2011.06.08 22:26:00 -
[1439]
From this post 52 on this thread:
Originally by: CCP Greyscale
Is technetium working as intended?
>> Technetium is is fairly urgent need of a nerf. That said, the reasons why it's like that are fairly well-understood internally - if you sit down and really look at the current T2 production tree (like we did when we last looked at moon minerals), you'll eventually see that it's really damn hard to solve this problem without extensive restructuring in a very messy manner. That said, we know we have to bite the bullet and make that mess at some point in the near future. (And yes, we were obviously aware that this was going to be a production bottleneck when we made the change, and no, it's not been anything like as bad as the doomsday predictions that were floating around at the time.)
KV
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Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.06.08 22:59:00 -
[1440]
Originally by: CCP Greyscale
Is technetium working as intended?
>> Technetium is is fairly urgent need of a nerf. That said, the reasons why it's like that are fairly well-understood internally - if you sit down and really look at the current T2 production tree (like we did when we last looked at moon minerals), you'll eventually see that it's really damn hard to solve this problem without extensive restructuring in a very messy manner. That said, we know we have to bite the bullet and make that mess at some point in the near future. (And yes, we were obviously aware that this was going to be a production bottleneck when we made the change, and no, it's not been anything like as bad as the doomsday predictions that were floating around at the time.)
How very funny. On the one side they say that they want large incentives in 0.0 so that people have something valuable to fight over. On the other side they say that it is not good to have valuable stuff in 0.0.
MAKE UP YOUR MIND!  |
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