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Jerry Pepridge
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Posted - 2011.07.28 05:14:00 -
[1621]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis As you can see in my candlestick graph, the wax is going everywhere at the moment, but the wick still seems to be lit. The fluid patterns in the drippage signal a bullish longterm, but there is little indicator of short-term waxy build-up that could predict immidiate results. Given the silver inherently holding the candle aloft we can only assume that no matter what happens there will be players with shiny and lots of envious players without said shiny.
I will be holding a seminar on the something awful forums using this breakthrough TA methodology in the near future. You can also look forward to a subscription based website where I will offer private tutoring in my art, as well as a series of books entitled "What nobody will sell you because it's just too valuable." Expect book one to be in stores SoonÖ.
the man is a visionary.
you sir have been approved to troll these forums. _________________________________________________
Misty McGinnity Doesn't have an iPhone. |
TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.07.28 08:19:00 -
[1622]
Originally by: Clambumper June Are we looking at a slow rebound or are there indicators that this is being held up falsely? I noticed the price is going down a marginal 200 to 300 isk per day on average. The quantity outlet is still on par to the average. I also noticed that we are not looking at too many orders in the 102K range, but they constantly being replaced as they disappear. Once those are gone though there are very few in the 103K and up. Will we get to those orders or will prices continually on the small average we are seeing now?
FWIW :
I'll ungalantly refer to my own post 1568 (10 days old).
"Currently we are (imo) seeing a combination of expansion Tc tweak scare, panic selling & manipulation."
I think most of the tweak scare sellers are gone (for now). I think close to all panic sellers are gone.
This has stopped the rapid decline in Tc prices.
The manipulators are still in there and at it - I.e. all the constantly replaced sell orders (they are *cleverly*, aka slowly, cashing out now)
All of the above leads to a fairly steady price (for the moment)
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"But personally I think it'll start rebounding long before that - I could be wrong though. But only on the timing of it."
Turns out I *was* wrong - On the timing of it, that is. But doubly wrong, as I actually thought I was perhaps being a bit too optimistic (compared to everyone else it seemed). It has already rebounded (as in stopped the death spiral) at least a couple of weeks before I thought it would start to flatten out.
My conclusion is that the Tc stockpiles definitely are not what they used to be. Or, that the (large) stockholders have even more ice in their veins than I thought.
Ofc it's probably a combination of the two, but personally I've downgraded my "gut feeling" of how large the Tc stockpiles are out there.
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The upshot of all this is that (imo) Tc prices will reach old heights far faster than anyone thought (or at least posted here about).
Once the manipulators (or technically speculators now) are done cashing in, the growth of Tc prices will "return to normal" again.
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And dangnabbit... This is the 2nd time a slump has not gone all the way down to my personal "buy more stock" price point.
BIG Lottery |
Wyke Mossari
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.07.28 09:14:00 -
[1623]
Anybody (Especially VV) that is convinced by this Voodoo really needs to read some Taleb, Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan before you lose your shirt.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.28 10:41:00 -
[1624]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Anybody (Especially VV) that is convinced by this Voodoo really needs to read some Taleb, Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan before you lose your shirt.
I have read those texts, Black Swans only affect those who approach the profession without the basic safeguards every modern broker provides for free.
In fact you always setup the trade to cover the worst case scenario by using what's called money and risk management. Also, even in case price was completely random, all you have to do is to take your own medicine and read "Birds watching in lion country" where an approach to complete random pricing is teached.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.28 15:22:00 -
[1625]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha basic safeguards every modern broker provides for free.
Hahahahaha, no... oh **** are you serious?
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Also, even in case price was completely random, all you have to do is to take your own medicine and read "Birds watching in lion country" where an approach to complete random pricing is teached.
I am really curious to know how he defines "random." lol
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.07.28 17:52:00 -
[1626]
Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 28/07/2011 17:53:00
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Anybody (Especially VV) that is convinced by this Voodoo really needs to read some Taleb, Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan before you lose your shirt.
I have read those texts, Black Swans only affect those who approach the profession without the basic safeguards every modern broker provides for free.
In fact you always setup the trade to cover the worst case scenario by using what's called money and risk management. Also, even in case price was completely random, all you have to do is to take your own medicine and read "Birds watching in lion country" where an approach to complete random pricing is teached.
That seems to a vanity published eBook, do you really believe it carries any weight against the Black Swan?
The (London) Sunday Times called the Black Swan one of the dozen most important book of modern times. Taleb has been called one of the world's top intellectuals by a Nobel Laureate, lauded by the World Economic conference where he predicted the bankers were leading the world in the current financial predicament years before it happened. Freedman said the refutation of Taleb were 'unconvincing'. He debated the topic of randomness with Mandelbrot. Yes THE Mandelbrot.
I do not think you have grasped the point Taleb is making.
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Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.28 18:54:00 -
[1627]
I think you'll find VV's take on what constitutes a healthy academic approach to economics is loose at best. He has a very dogmatic viewpoint of his present methodology and I don't think any logical arguments are going to win him over. Sufficed to say i'm sure he'll just chock it up to our "loosing," mentality and inability to read into those laborious graphs his mentors have spawned over the years.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.07.28 18:59:00 -
[1628]
Guys please...
Lets not get this wonderful thread locked - it's way way off-topic... One or two (or even a handful of) posts here and there doesn't hurt (imo), but page upon page... is the way to locked-doom...
BIG Lottery |
Darth Tickles
Origin. Black Legion.
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Posted - 2011.07.28 19:02:00 -
[1629]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis I think you'll find VV's take on what constitutes a healthy academic approach to economics is loose at best. He has a very dogmatic viewpoint of his present methodology and I don't think any logical arguments are going to win him over. Sufficed to say i'm sure he'll just chock it up to our "loosing," mentality and inability to read into those laborious graphs his mentors have spawned over the years.
Only The Initiated can grasp the full majesty of The Secret Knowledge.
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2011.07.28 19:07:00 -
[1630]
Continue please, all of you. This is better than EVE itself, had posted this forum link to my friends, we laugh for days. Some may even install the client, just to see what's this game all about.
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Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.28 23:52:00 -
[1631]
I believe this is the part where I declare victory over the dragon VV.
GF o7o7
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.29 09:09:00 -
[1632]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 29/07/2011 09:12:34
Originally by: Wyke Mossari That seems to a vanity published eBook, do you really believe it carries any weight against the Black Swan?
The (London) Sunday Times called the Black Swan one of the dozen most important book of modern times. Taleb has been called one of the world's top intellectuals by a Nobel Laureate, lauded by the World Economic conference where he predicted the bankers were leading the world in the current financial predicament years before it happened. Freedman said the refutation of Taleb were 'unconvincing'. He debated the topic of randomness with Mandelbrot. Yes THE Mandelbrot.
I do not think you have grasped the point Taleb is making.
It's not a vanity e-book, in fact the first edition(s) were not meant to be e-books at all. Also, vanity e-books don't tend to last more than one edition. Like Taleb's work, BWILC has been considered quite "out of the conventions" as well.
I don't have particular objections (if any) vs Taleb, but bringing his texts in this argument is irrelevant. We are not talking about things that could go wrong, because a proper trade setup has provision for the "all stars aligned bad => total loss" scenario. In the worst case I lose 2% of my worker account. And so?
Originally by: Darth Tickles
Only The Initiated can grasp the full majesty of The Secret Knowledge.
No, it's as easy to grasp as is working with wood to make forniture. Like wood working once you get it, then you have to put in a lot of practice. Still, the secret knowledge involves hard things like "buy low, sell high", "if today there are many sellers don't buy" and that's it.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.29 09:38:00 -
[1633]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis I believe this is the part where I declare victory over the dragon VV.
GF o7o7
This is the part where I post the last update to my RL trade.
In your honor, I posted the trade conclusion over there, both in Italian and English so everyone can see.
For the laziest, here's how it went:
Finally, since the concept seems to have wooooshed again and again, many of the posted works are not "just" graphs. Some (like me) indeed have to use a separate, non graphical broker platform to send the actual orders, so they post graphs done on their other (graphical) platform. But others are using an integrated graphs + orders setup platform showing graphs like this one where it's possible to see the order number and the operation performed (buy or sell) and also the stop loss (dashed line above the sale). Therefore they are not just examples, it's visible trades being started some days ago and showing where the market went afterwards.
Anyway I am off buying a new TV for my sister's birthday, and that TV has been kindly "gifted" to me by the markets. Cya
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
OllieNorth
Gallente R-K Industries
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Posted - 2011.07.29 17:32:00 -
[1634]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Anybody (Especially VV) that is convinced by this Voodoo really needs to read some Taleb, Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan before you lose your shirt.
What do Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman making out (as hot as it is) have to do with tech?!
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Darth Tickles
Origin. Black Legion.
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Posted - 2011.07.29 18:21:00 -
[1635]
Originally by: OllieNorth What do Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman making out (as hot as it is) have to do with tech?!
They both give me a hardon?
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.08.22 13:42:00 -
[1636]
so it looks like its finally going over 100k again... Took a lot longer than expected! all going a lot slower than the predictions but its not crashing down like the dooms day ppl in here expected... still curious to see where it go's from here!
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.08.22 19:24:00 -
[1637]
As i said......
Back over 100k by September i said. I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict 120k by Sept 12th.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.08.22 21:27:00 -
[1638]
Edited by: TornSoul on 22/08/2011 21:27:14 Yeah once the "stickyness" of the 100K number is gone, it'll go up fast again.
A quick jump, and then slightly slower after that.
I'd say it (long run) won't rise as fast as before this patch scare/panic - As some people will still be a bit scared about a future nerf.
We'll see.
BIG Lottery |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.08.23 06:26:00 -
[1639]
Originally by: TornSoul Yeah once the "stickyness" of the 100K number is gone, it'll go up fast again.
A quick jump, and then slightly slower after that.
I'd say it (long run) won't rise as fast as before this patch scare/panic - As some people will still be a bit scared about a future nerf.
We'll see.
Love how if someone says 100k is "sticky", none comments in any way. If someone else says 100k is a BRN (big round number) and acted as support / resistance (hence the stickyness) he gets burned on a stake.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.08.23 11:32:00 -
[1640]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: TornSoul Yeah once the "stickyness" of the 100K number is gone, it'll go up fast again.
A quick jump, and then slightly slower after that.
I'd say it (long run) won't rise as fast as before this patch scare/panic - As some people will still be a bit scared about a future nerf.
We'll see.
Love how if someone says 100k is "sticky", none comments in any way. If someone else says 100k is a BRN (big round number) and acted as support / resistance (hence the stickyness) he gets burned on a stake.
Let's start with three: 1. He made an actual prediction. 2. He didn't tell us we were all idiots and how great a trader he was. 3. He used one word instead of a hundred to say the same thing.
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Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc.
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Posted - 2011.08.23 12:23:00 -
[1641]
Originally by: Claire Voyant Let's start with three: 1. He made an actual prediction. 2. He didn't tell us we were all idiots and how great a trader he was. 3. He used one word instead of a hundred to say the same thing.
Also it was a posteriori observation about the current market behavior with no implicit or explicit predictions on how stick numbers in general will affect future trades.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.08.23 12:48:00 -
[1642]
Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
Originally by: Claire Voyant Let's start with three: 1. He made an actual prediction. 2. He didn't tell us we were all idiots and how great a trader he was. 3. He used one word instead of a hundred to say the same thing.
Also it was a posteriori observation about the current market behavior with no implicit or explicit predictions on how stick numbers in general will affect future trades.
Well, I have always argued that VV does exactly the same thing, but he then tells us we were stupid for not seeing 3 months ago what he himself just discovered 5 minutes before.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.08.23 13:58:00 -
[1643]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 23/08/2011 14:03:38
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
Originally by: Claire Voyant Let's start with three: 1. He made an actual prediction. 2. He didn't tell us we were all idiots and how great a trader he was. 3. He used one word instead of a hundred to say the same thing.
Also it was a posteriori observation about the current market behavior with no implicit or explicit predictions on how stick numbers in general will affect future trades.
Well, I have always argued that VV does exactly the same thing, but he then tells us we were stupid for not seeing 3 months ago what he himself just discovered 5 minutes before.
Where did I say you were idiot for not seeing 3 months ago what I myself just discovered 5 minutes before?
The latter is forcefully false, I don't (nor know how) to trade in EvE on 5 minutes time frames. It's actually extremely hard to trade on 5 minutes in RL as well.
Edit: I posted "predictions" (your word, not mine) some times but since I am RL market oriented and my time in EvE was limited, I indeed posted more late graphs than "before" graphs. It's because I stuck trading those 2-3 markets (ofc did not post analysis of those ) while the others I give them a look once every 2 months.
The market hints, though, don't grow "old". IE if a weekly retracement BUOB appears today, it means "buy" regardless whether I say it today, 1 week ahead or 1 year later. Of course *to you* it's pointless to be explained I read a price in a certain way when it's too late but the intent was and is to have people learn it themselves and apply that in their markets. I show them the fishing pole that does not expire, it's their task to use it to fish future fish with it.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.08.23 14:09:00 -
[1644]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Where did I say you were idiot for not seeing 3 months ago what I myself just discovered 5 minutes before?
Just a month ago in this thread.
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Oh'Freddled Gruntbuggly
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Posted - 2011.08.23 16:17:00 -
[1645]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
That's people who put the money where their mouth was and now are enjoying their rewards.
Trading with other people's money is the easist job in the world. If you make a profit your employers will give you a bonus, if you make a loss the taxpayer is made to bail your money-losing asses out.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.08.23 17:57:00 -
[1646]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 23/08/2011 17:57:55
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Where did I say you were idiot for not seeing 3 months ago what I myself just discovered 5 minutes before?
Just a month ago in this thread.
I can clearly say the word "idiot" and guess what, it was you to say it in the next post.
Oddly enough your memory is not as good to recall the multiple times I said I would generally not post "signals" (= current trades) any more. People used them to manipulate markets I and other TA thread readers were invested in, which is something I don't approve.
Since the basic market rules are the same (I use them interchangeably in RL and EvE) you may always go to the multiple times linked RL trading threads and see the "predictions" (still using your terms) being confirmed trade after trade both by me and by the guy who teaches it. Many are "past trade" examples but all the dozens of examples where you can find a dotted line labelled "buy" or "sell", it's trades in the future.
Originally by: Oh'Freddled Gruntbuggly
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
That's people who put the money where their mouth was and now are enjoying their rewards.
Trading with other people's money is the easist job in the world. If you make a profit your employers will give you a bonus, if you make a loss the taxpayer is made to bail your money-losing asses out.
Didn't know EvE got bailouts. As for RL, people elected those who made those lol bailouts, they got who and what they asked for. This is what happens when you use politicians to deal with economy: a disaster after another.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.08.23 18:55:00 -
[1647]
Edited by: Claire Voyant on 23/08/2011 18:58:46
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 23/08/2011 17:57:55
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Where did I say you were idiot for not seeing 3 months ago what I myself just discovered 5 minutes before?
Just a month ago in this thread.
I can clearly say the word "idiot" and guess what, it was you to say it in the next post.
You accused everyone who owned tech of having a "brain impairment" and it was 4 months instead of 3 and 7 minutes instead of 5. So excuse me for paraphrasing.
Edit: When will you learn it is not technical analysis we hate, it is you.
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Angsty Teenager
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Posted - 2011.08.23 19:07:00 -
[1648]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Edit: When will you learn it is not technical analysis we hate, it is you.
I don't like him either.
I can confirm that I own quadrillions of units of tech myself also.
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Devai Starchild
Caldari
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Posted - 2011.08.23 19:40:00 -
[1649]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
You accused everyone who owned tech of having a "brain impairment" and it was 4 months instead of 3 and 7 minutes instead of 5. So excuse me for paraphrasing.
Edit: When will you learn it is not technical analysis we hate, it is you.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech.
Those two statements do not look the same.
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2011.08.23 19:41:00 -
[1650]
Originally by: Herman Klaus As i said......
Back over 100k by September i said. I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict 120k by Sept 12th.
You're wise man, Herman.
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