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Pak Narhoo
Splinter Foundation
1505
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Posted - 2014.12.16 11:11:44 -
[181] - Quote
Don't think CCP is bound by selling PLEX from banned accounts on npc's. |
Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra Gallente Federation
228
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Posted - 2014.12.16 11:58:07 -
[182] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
Just because someone was dumb enough to buy out of hub or unsorted market goods doesn't mean the bubble is growing again. Plex remains stubborn at 820-830mil. Again, there is no demand to push an increase.
I don't know if they are 'stubborn' at 820-830, it's still trending downwards atm. We're at about the top of the previous big spike (the summer one). That is not uncommon in PLEX price history. After the summer spike, prices dropped back in the 750-800 range. Prices would have to drop below that level before you can say that the current downward trend is more than the usual correction after a spike.
As in terms of ISK investment: prices at the current level are still roughly 200 million higher then they were a year ago, they were at 600+ back then. So PLEX purchased back then still make you a nifty 30+% profit for just having them sit in your hangar.
Quote: And yes I know that cash -> plex cannot go the other way directly, which is why I would never suggest stockpiling something that doesn't actually exist is good. Again, if CCP wanted to they could sell plex for $5 a piece and crash the market, they could also stop the plex for training or plex for transfers. There is a number of things that CCP could do or undo that effect plex. Since the system is out of the hands of the player I don't feel it is a worthwhile investment unless you have the account numbers to utilize your future stockpiles.
CCP can do lots of things, the risk is in how likely it is that they will do it. History teaches us that CCP has only done things that make PLEX more desirable so far and have never ever tampered with the intrinsic value of PLEX (the 30 day sub). Now compare that to any other commodity in the game and then tell me that PLEX is not the safest thing to invest in for long term investment plans. |
Nemah Xadi
Hedion University Amarr Empire
18
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Posted - 2014.12.16 17:29:25 -
[183] - Quote
Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:History teaches us that CCP has only done things that make PLEX more desirable so far and have never ever tampered with the intrinsic value of PLEX (the 30 day sub).
I never thought they would do what they did to Isboxer.
Never ever.
Though I'm sure it will never ever happen again. |
Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra Gallente Federation
228
|
Posted - 2014.12.16 19:05:13 -
[184] - Quote
Nemah Xadi wrote:Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:History teaches us that CCP has only done things that make PLEX more desirable so far and have never ever tampered with the intrinsic value of PLEX (the 30 day sub). I never thought they would do what they did to Isboxer. Never ever. Though I'm sure it will never ever happen again.
Then you were a bit naive. Isboxer has been borderlining botting for a long time, I expect them to enforce cache scraping too in the not too distant future for instance, which has been ignored for years now.
And if you think that there is a realistic chance that CCP is going to nerf PLEX intrinsic value without compensation for existing stocks, you're a bit naive as well. I'm not even sure it would be possible legally. Yesyes, we know PLEX is an ingame item and fall under the EULA and by that definition they can do whatever they want with it but it would be interesting to see how that holds up in court in a class action law suit. It would be much the same as buying a gift card for 20 bucks which then get's turned into a gift card for 10 bucks. Even if it were possible it would **** off so many ppl that I suspect the Summer of Rage will be dwarfed by it.
You're right if you're saying that it CAN happen but you're wrong if you think that it is likely to happen. Pretty much everything else in EVE is a much more risky investment as they don't represent an intrinsic value so important as the stuff you can do with PLEX. There are countless examples of nerfs and buffs to pretty much everything in game, there are none (0, that is zero) for PLEX.
So again: based on that knowledge, what do you think is the safest investment in EVE? *Any item* or PLEX? |
Cista2
Phoibe Enterprises
38
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Posted - 2014.12.16 21:30:13 -
[185] - Quote
Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:So again: based on that knowledge, what do you think is the safest investment in EVE? *Any item* or PLEX? Melted nanoribbons, clearly! |
Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
7
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Posted - 2014.12.17 01:24:35 -
[186] - Quote
Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:Nemah Xadi wrote:Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:History teaches us that CCP has only done things that make PLEX more desirable so far and have never ever tampered with the intrinsic value of PLEX (the 30 day sub). I never thought they would do what they did to Isboxer. Never ever. Though I'm sure it will never ever happen again. Then you were a bit naive. Isboxer has been borderlining botting for a long time, I expect them to enforce cache scraping too in the not too distant future for instance, which has been ignored for years now. And if you think that there is a realistic chance that CCP is going to nerf PLEX intrinsic value without compensation for existing stocks, you're a bit naive as well. I'm not even sure it would be possible legally. Yesyes, we know PLEX is an ingame item and fall under the EULA and by that definition they can do whatever they want with it but it would be interesting to see how that holds up in court in a class action law suit. It would be much the same as buying a gift card for 20 bucks which then get's turned into a gift card for 10 bucks. Even if it were possible it would **** off so many ppl that I suspect the Summer of Rage will be dwarfed by it. You're right if you're saying that it CAN happen but you're wrong if you think that it is likely to happen. Pretty much everything else in EVE is a much more risky investment as they don't represent an intrinsic value so important as the stuff you can do with PLEX. There are countless examples of nerfs and buffs to pretty much everything in game, there are none (0, that is zero) for PLEX. So again: based on that knowledge, what do you think is the safest investment in EVE? *Any item* or PLEX?
And in many of the countries with large Eve subscribers PLEX is borderline illegal. Do not fool yourself into thinking that PLEX is anything more than one court case away from being worthless in this game. Perhaps not worthless, just not worth what you think it would be.
Imagine holding 100 plex as your life savings in eve... it becomes illegal tender for in game transactions (because ganking and destroying plex would be akin to larceny in most countries). The PLEX is declared valid only for game time and is auto applied to the account you hold. How worthwhile is it to have 100 months of game time in a game that might not live that long?
Everything could change, as many things have in the past and will in the future. I would say the most worthwhile investment in game if you don't like isk is Trit... as the game has always used it and always will. But again, I wouldn't stockpile anything that has no actual live value, hence I would stockpile nothing in eve.
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Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research Nornir Empire
463
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Posted - 2014.12.17 01:29:16 -
[187] - Quote
Toad, do you really believe this rubbish you're spouting?
.
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Makhpella
Temet Nosce Ex Astra
5
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Posted - 2014.12.17 02:43:31 -
[188] - Quote
He is American for sure."one court case away from being worthless" roflmao |
Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
7
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Posted - 2014.12.17 05:19:29 -
[189] - Quote
Elizabeth Norn wrote:Toad, do you really believe this rubbish you're spouting?
You willing to put everything you worked for in this game, possibly even real life cash up to the support the belief that PLEX will be around forever and CCP doesn't ever mess with the market of the most secretive item in it's history? OK, have fun.
And to the American hater there... is it supposed to be an insult that you think Americans are the only ones with courts?! |
Artemis Scat
Inertia Mining Industries
23
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Posted - 2014.12.17 05:27:52 -
[190] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote: And to the American hater there... is it supposed to be an insult that you think Americans are the only ones with courts?!
I think the fact that because you took Makhpella's observation as an affront to being American and as a personal insult, you very much verified his opinion. |
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Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
7
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Posted - 2014.12.17 05:31:51 -
[191] - Quote
Artemis Scat wrote:Toad The Hitchhiker wrote: And to the American hater there... is it supposed to be an insult that you think Americans are the only ones with courts?!
I think the fact that because you took Makhpella's observation as an affront to being American and as a personal insult, you very much verified his opinion.
I am not American, but I do take affront that somehow they are viewed as the only ones with laws and courts. But this is off-topic.
So instead of trying to insult a person's national heritage, or perceived national heritage let us not discuss the actual topic at hand... |
Abyss Azizora
Viziam Amarr Empire
121
|
Posted - 2014.12.17 08:19:17 -
[192] - Quote
Vyktor Abyss wrote:I'd quite like to see PLEX have an expiry time after their first market transaction to stop people stockpiling them for trading and reselling later.
I'd also like to see Mila Kunis naked in my bed waiting for me later, however I know that won't happen either all because CCP is so greedy for people's real money and know higher PLEX prices means more in game stuff for people's money.... and less chance for Mila in my bed.
Barstewards.
That... actually makes a hell of a lot of sense. And as you said, makes too much sense for CCP to ever implement. But grats on coming up with a nearly perfect solution to the hoarding issue. |
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
221
|
Posted - 2014.12.17 09:19:43 -
[193] - Quote
Facts:
1) None of you idiots can predict the price: "how long is a piece of string" 2) Plex are definitely rectangular in shape. 3) It's speculated, although he denys it, Toad the hitchhiker is / was a butthurt multiboxer alt who Resides in america. 4) they are used to pay to win this game.
did i miss anything? |
Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra Gallente Federation
230
|
Posted - 2014.12.17 13:54:01 -
[194] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:
And in many of the countries with large Eve subscribers PLEX is borderline illegal. Do not fool yourself into thinking that PLEX is anything more than one court case away from being worthless in this game. Perhaps not worthless, just not worth what you think it would be.
Imagine holding 100 plex as your life savings in eve... it becomes illegal tender for in game transactions (because ganking and destroying plex would be akin to larceny in most countries). The PLEX is declared valid only for game time and is auto applied to the account you hold. How worthwhile is it to have 100 months of game time in a game that might not live that long?
Everything could change, as many things have in the past and will in the future. I would say the most worthwhile investment in game if you don't like isk is Trit... as the game has always used it and always will. But again, I wouldn't stockpile anything that has no actual live value, hence I would stockpile nothing in eve.
Buying digital gift cards is borderline illegal in many countries? If you say so
Shooting pixels in a video game is not illegal in any country I imagine. Threathening ppl IRL to hand over their PLEX would be, but just shooting someone in game, no. Perhaps in really, really backward places, North Korea comes to mind....
Pouring your life savings into a video game would be idiotic, don't spend what you can't or are not willing to lose goes for RL as much as it goes for EVE. Furthermore, how worthwile is it to hold anything in a game that might have the plug pulled at any moment?
Yes, everything could change, again, the risk is in how LIKELY it is that a change will happen that will make your stuff wortheless or worth significantly less. For reasons stated, that risk seems lowest on PLEX.
Trit: has been nerfed, buffed, nerfed, buffed, nerfed, buffed and this will most likely continue to get nerfed and buffed. So in this regard it compares poorly to PLEX. Ever since the artificial price cap was removed on it (shuttles were seeded by NPC's in the past and kept the trit price low) the market has been quite volatile for trit. Same goes for any mineral really.
As for stockpiling 'nothing', I'm guessing you're spending everything you make ASAP then? Earn isk, buy stuff, get stuff blown up cuz if you don't that would be like 'stockpiling', amirite? I wonder if you take this aproach IRL too as there is risk that 'everything changes' IRL too (and it does pretty often history teaches us).
OT: price still trending slowly downwards in jita, margins are thin though. |
Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra Gallente Federation
230
|
Posted - 2014.12.17 13:56:45 -
[195] - Quote
Abyss Azizora wrote:Vyktor Abyss wrote:I'd quite like to see PLEX have an expiry time after their first market transaction to stop people stockpiling them for trading and reselling later.
I'd also like to see Mila Kunis naked in my bed waiting for me later, however I know that won't happen either all because CCP is so greedy for people's real money and know higher PLEX prices means more in game stuff for people's money.... and less chance for Mila in my bed.
Barstewards.
That... actually makes a hell of a lot of sense. And as you said, makes too much sense for CCP to ever implement. But grats on coming up with a nearly perfect solution to the hoarding issue. It makes as much sense as saying: there will be an expiration date on *anything you buy*. if it should happen to PLEX though, I'd simply activate them all on my accounts... |
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research Nornir Empire
469
|
Posted - 2014.12.17 16:34:39 -
[196] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:Elizabeth Norn wrote:Toad, do you really believe this rubbish you're spouting? You willing to put everything you worked for in this game, possibly even real life cash up to the support the belief that PLEX will be around forever and CCP doesn't ever mess with the market of the most secretive item in it's history? OK, have fun.
Yep, because I think you're chatting nonsense that means I put everything I've played for and real life cash into an item in a video game to earn more video game money .
.
|
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy Caldari State
1
|
Posted - 2014.12.17 22:56:01 -
[197] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:Elizabeth Norn wrote:Toad, do you really believe this rubbish you're spouting? You willing to put everything you worked for in this game, possibly even real life cash up to the support the belief that PLEX will be around forever and CCP doesn't ever mess with the market of the most secretive item in it's history? OK, have fun.!
How is that much different than putting time into a game that could be gone in a year? Once those servers are turned off you do not even have a single player piece left. It's alllll gone |
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
237
|
Posted - 2014.12.21 15:10:22 -
[198] - Quote
those plex sales though
surprised the great toad hasn't done the told u so thing.
sell sell sell sell sell ( FOOTLOOSE ERA KEVIN BACON VOICE)
|
Daniel Plain
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
2200
|
Posted - 2014.12.21 23:12:55 -
[199] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:And in many of the countries with large Eve subscribers PLEX is borderline illegal. Do not fool yourself into thinking that PLEX is anything more than one court case away from being worthless in this game. Perhaps not worthless, just not worth what you think it would be.
Imagine holding 100 plex as your life savings in eve... it becomes illegal tender for in game transactions (because ganking and destroying plex would be akin to larceny in most countries). The PLEX is declared valid only for game time and is auto applied to the account you hold. How worthwhile is it to have 100 months of game time in a game that might not live that long?
Everything could change, as many things have in the past and will in the future. I would say the most worthwhile investment in game if you don't like isk is Trit... as the game has always used it and always will. But again, I wouldn't stockpile anything that has no actual live value, hence I would stockpile nothing in eve.
the only appropriate answer
I should buy an Ishtar.
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Ren Oren
Native Freshfood Minmatar Republic
65
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Posted - 2014.12.22 08:10:29 -
[200] - Quote
30% discount plex sale on a site (forgot the name)
More bad news for plex holders |
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Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
8
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Posted - 2014.12.23 18:45:50 -
[201] - Quote
Daniel Plain wrote:Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:And in many of the countries with large Eve subscribers PLEX is borderline illegal. Do not fool yourself into thinking that PLEX is anything more than one court case away from being worthless in this game. Perhaps not worthless, just not worth what you think it would be.
Imagine holding 100 plex as your life savings in eve... it becomes illegal tender for in game transactions (because ganking and destroying plex would be akin to larceny in most countries). The PLEX is declared valid only for game time and is auto applied to the account you hold. How worthwhile is it to have 100 months of game time in a game that might not live that long?
Everything could change, as many things have in the past and will in the future. I would say the most worthwhile investment in game if you don't like isk is Trit... as the game has always used it and always will. But again, I wouldn't stockpile anything that has no actual live value, hence I would stockpile nothing in eve.
the only appropriate answer
You can make fun all you want to... but if you took 1 trillion isk and bought Plex one year ago today, and I bought 1 tril of Trit
You would have 1.25 trillion in isk if you sold your plex today (and dropping) and I would have 1.33 tril isk for selling my trit (and increasing)
Trit can't go anywhere without massive changes to the game, Plex is a relatively new market item, with a relatively experimental application for in game trading. |
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research Nornir Empire
471
|
Posted - 2014.12.23 19:33:33 -
[202] - Quote
If you bought 1T of PLEX one year ago and sold it a few weeks ago you would have 1.544T
If you bought 1T of Tritanium one year ago and sold it a few weeks ago you would have 1.165T
It's not just about what you buy and sell, but when you buy and sell it too.
Also these:
http://www.eve-markets.net/detail?typeid=34#history
http://eve-marketdata.com/price_check.php?type_id=29668
.
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Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
8
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Posted - 2014.12.23 20:01:14 -
[203] - Quote
Right, just like if you bought 1 tril of plex a month or two ago and tried to sell it now you would have less than 900bil?
Got it, your examples only are relevant when they support your talking points. |
Makhpella
Temet Nosce Ex Astra
18
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Posted - 2014.12.24 11:27:48 -
[204] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker
http://youtu.be/SGvDtc2Ye04
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Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra Gallente Federation
238
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Posted - 2014.12.24 14:47:03 -
[205] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote: Nobody belittles the trit market, it's just that trit has been much more volatile throughout EVE history. The recent spike is speculation/manipulation cuz of the ISBoxer nerf mostly I reckon. There have been many changes that affected supply and demand for trit throughout the years due to changing game mechanics, both adding negative pressure and positive pressure on the price. For PLEX, all changes made so far have added positive pressure on the price. I doubt CCP is going to remove uses for PLEX anytime soon.
Again, in a worst case scenario you end up with something that has turned out to be a very bad isk investment. That still leaves you with loads of game time (or fanfest tickets). I could live with that. Hell, in fact I'd love to see PLEX crash down to 200 million or lower
Edit: OT: trending downwards again, 800 million is starting to get closer. Should it drop below 800 things would be getting interesting as that means it will be entering the price range in which PLEX stabilized after the summer peak. |
N00B-SAIB0T
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2014.12.24 17:21:10 -
[206] - Quote
PLEX dropped to below 800 million in the last day or two. At roughly 792 million last I checked. I just resubbed about 3 weeks ago, when it was still 885-ish million. Almost a 100 million ISK drop in less than a month.
Will be interesting to see how low it goes. |
Nemah Xadi
Hedion University Amarr Empire
19
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Posted - 2014.12.24 17:50:14 -
[207] - Quote
There are people putting up buy orders for hundreds of PLEX at 800m over the last few days, it only briefly drops below 800m as those get filled up. The fatcats seem to think this is a time to buy, and I wouldn't expect it to go lower than this either.
Save Nemah!
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Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
10
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Posted - 2014.12.24 17:53:06 -
[208] - Quote
Nemah Xadi wrote:There are people putting up buy orders for hundreds of PLEX at 800m over the last few days, it only briefly drops below 800m as those get filled up. The fatcats seem to think this is a time to buy, and I wouldn't expect it to go lower than this either.
Just watch. They don't have the isk to stop what is coming. |
Nemah Xadi
Hedion University Amarr Empire
19
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Posted - 2014.12.24 18:31:47 -
[209] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:Just watch. They don't have the isk to stop what is coming.
I would like for you to be correct Sir, but since you are clearly a grade A moron, I shan't be holding my breath.
Save Nemah!
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Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
247
|
Posted - 2014.12.25 09:08:12 -
[210] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:Nemah Xadi wrote:There are people putting up buy orders for hundreds of PLEX at 800m over the last few days, it only briefly drops below 800m as those get filled up. The fatcats seem to think this is a time to buy, and I wouldn't expect it to go lower than this either. Just watch. They don't have the isk to stop what is coming.
toad is right guys
tiiiimber (fred flintstone voice)
sell them now or be dunked by ..... . ....... toad
thats right, the toad ! the guy who in his wisdom, predicted this would happen
please, step forward if you took a dive on this based solely of "what you read on the forums" Give toad the satisfaction, that had you read butthurt retorical post #24432 you would have avoided this!
"just buy more from the store"
that rhymes!
go go 500m! |
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