The PLEX price clearly overshot.

Some people are dumping stocks, some people are taking advantage of the high price to purchase PLEX (-ú/$/etc) and convert to ISK and we may even be seeing a CCP intervention (for possibly the first time this year).

I expect it to fall back to ~1.1B and then resume it's climb.

1,154 Sell / 1,138 Buy atm

Yeah, I didn't think my predictions were controversial. But some people seemed to think it was the beginning of the end.

Lockefox called it the same as I did, but with less words and more graphs.

Delonewolf said he'd invest half of his wealth if it fell below 1B, but I didn't see a fall of that magnitude being likely.

I'm happy to have picked up six month's supply of PLEX for my alt army at a reduced price. Maybe we'll see another spike that will warrant me cashing these in, but I'm inclined to think I'll just be using them. Shame I didn't have the time or liquidity to invest another 100B or so, but the PLEX sale was over pretty quick. The period of instability made for some nice flipping profits, but the margin and volume have now shrunk back to more normal levels.

What, what about me?

You're quite capable of doing your own smugging, I don't have to do it for you :)

back up to 1.176 m ISK
as posted around 21st August or mid- August
with first spikes occurring around August 26 at over 1.1m ISK.

+ Forgot to mention, until October (and I will now add , perhaps or early November).

I speculate that it will go back down below 940m ISK, as it was before the raise in value mid August.

I also speculate that it will go back up to over 1.1m ISK.

back up to 1.176 m ISK
as posted around 21st August or mid- August
with first spikes occurring around August 26 at over 1.1m ISK.

+ Forgot to mention, until October (and I will now add , perhaps or early November).

I speculate that it will go back down below 940m ISK, as it was before the raise in value mid August.

I also speculate that it will go back up to over 1.1m ISK.

back up to 1.176 m ISK
as posted around 21st August or mid- August
with first spikes occurring around August 26 at over 1.1m ISK.

+ Forgot to mention, until October (and I will now add , perhaps or early November).

I speculate that it will go back down below 940m ISK, as it was before the raise in value mid August.

I also speculate that it will go back up to over 1.1m ISK.

Sorry but that price is just not going to stabilise at the same level it was before unless something dramatic happens. Once you strip out the in year seasonality, it just goes up.

I speculate that your speculations are bullshit

I was right about the first speculation back in mid-August or before and I even measured the level and degree of precision of the exactitude to which I was right.

It could get more scientific with a little bit more administrated funding.

So far , I am still right, at least until around mid-October to the end of October...

I can verify the originally published speculation from Mid-August, it is still on the forum to make it possible to verify.

HFS, 1 for 3!!!!

It will not stabilize but it will go back down and it will go back up again.

The funny thing about the plex market is that it appears, like most things here, to be a time series with multiple seasonal effects; in week and yearly. (at least when you look at daily data).

Now take that data, adjust for 7 and 365.25 cycles (have a look at tbats) and once you get the seasonal effects out you'll notice there is an upwards trend.

Where it gets interesting is with rapid changes, such as what we saw just recently. However once this noise settles, it'll return to that gentle upwards slope with a slower rate of change and some seasonal patterns.

(the data is pretty messy and frankly I would hate to try and make any serious predictions on it).

There is little to no seasonality in the PLEX price time series. I have downloaded the data and checked for both monthly and weekly seasonality and found none.

As for bubbles and the trend in PLEX prices....

As for bubbles, here is the thing about them...they are very, very hard to predict.

Lets suppose that some guy named Bob had found a way to predict perfectly when a bubble was about to burst. Bob would then sell short at the peak and then buy when prices dropped dramatically making a killing. How often could Bob do this? Maybe 2-4 times then everyone would know...watch Bob. As soon as Bob starts selling short....oh ****. Get out!!! Bob, to try and maintain his profit margin might sell a bit earlier...but then so would everyone else. And this logic would repeat itself all the way back to the point that the bubble started to form.

Predicting bubbles and their peak is not possible. Of course some people appear to have gotten it "right" by consistently going against the consensus, but so what? Doing that means that eventually you'd be right, but the vast majority of the time you'll be wrong. People who then think such prognosticators are some sort of genius simply help assure why bubbles are so hard to predict.

Is the current PLEX price a bubble? I don't know. Maybe. I doubt it, but then again nobody really knows.

There does seem to be yearly seasonality and a general upwards trend. Thanks for posting your data as well, I had a bit of a look at it. I have been meaning to do more with timeseries and it was fun playing with the forecast library.

http://rpubs.com/randomGraphs/117046

How many models did you fit? That just seems odd. One year high the next low. I could buy something more like a traditional seasonal patter what with school/summer etc. But a year over year fluctuation....?

And did you try including some sort of autoregressive error term? Looking at the remainder graph and your Durbin-Watson statistic (although I don't have access to my texts with the tables for the Durbin-Watson tables) might want to consider adding in an autoregressive error term.

#1007 - 2015-10-16 23:54:15 UTC |
1.223 b ISK in Jita
1.220
1.215
1.214

Inflation manifests rather strongly in PLEX, don't it.

Back down to 1.20b ISK and 1.9b ISK.
Now back down to 1.17b ISK
plus 1.76, 1.74, 1.73 and 1.71...
The depreciated deflation is what I mentioned.

Again right.
Again, as some other said it would not go back down but would only go up.


Mind you, it is still above 1.1b ISK.