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Hexxx Minmatar	Posted - 2009.10.02 15:13:00 - [931] Originally by: cosmoray Originally by: SetrakDark Originally by: Le Skunk Where do we vote for option A? On the website? I think most people would take 40%, a lesson learned, and a line drawn under the whole affair. Given that 280 mill, the player could probably make his 700 mill back in a couple of weeks, rather then waiting 2 years for someone else to make it back for him (if they don't **** it up again) EBank is suggesting there will be some type of cash-out option in their next announcement, or at least that's what I've interpreted from various statements. I think they are going to suggest a mechanism that the market buys out accounts. A look at the balance sheet shows that they have about 780B in assets or around 39% of all accounts balances. If someone will buy accounts they will not do so at asset value and leave it with someone else to earn money. All offers will probably be at a discount to asset value (under 39%), or you could just buy assets off the market at face value and not have any security issues. IMO best case scenario is about 30% on account balance maximum, unless there is a major change in EBANK's balance sheet. Either way expect market offers to be at least 20% under current asset value. Pricing should be a function of risk (whatever the market determines that to be), with estimates of time to recover, and some speculation. Assets on a liquid market (securities for example) are rarely priced at the current valuation but instead at future valuations. This is evident via the P/E ratio on some stocks being several multiples of 10 over their actual underlying fundamental value. Google for example has a P/E ratio of 33. Ultimately demand for liquidity coupled with risk appetite will likely be the big factors. My humble opinion of course.
cosmoray Cosmoray Construction	Posted - 2009.10.02 16:53:00 - [932] Originally by: Hexxx Originally by: cosmoray Originally by: SetrakDark Originally by: Le Skunk Where do we vote for option A? On the website? I think most people would take 40%, a lesson learned, and a line drawn under the whole affair. Given that 280 mill, the player could probably make his 700 mill back in a couple of weeks, rather then waiting 2 years for someone else to make it back for him (if they don't **** it up again) EBank is suggesting there will be some type of cash-out option in their next announcement, or at least that's what I've interpreted from various statements. I think they are going to suggest a mechanism that the market buys out accounts. A look at the balance sheet shows that they have about 780B in assets or around 39% of all accounts balances. If someone will buy accounts they will not do so at asset value and leave it with someone else to earn money. All offers will probably be at a discount to asset value (under 39%), or you could just buy assets off the market at face value and not have any security issues. IMO best case scenario is about 30% on account balance maximum, unless there is a major change in EBANK's balance sheet. Either way expect market offers to be at least 20% under current asset value. Pricing should be a function of risk (whatever the market determines that to be), with estimates of time to recover, and some speculation. Assets on a liquid market (securities for example) are rarely priced at the current valuation but instead at future valuations. This is evident via the P/E ratio on some stocks being several multiples of 10 over their actual underlying fundamental value. Google for example has a P/E ratio of 33. Ultimately demand for liquidity coupled with risk appetite will likely be the big factors. My humble opinion of course. Google is a unique business in RL like others which can't easily be copied. In Eve when buying out a business you have the option of buying the equivalent assets and using them yourself. Because of this fact most businesses in Eve are worth close to their NAV, with some IPO's gaining more value due to the trust factor. If EBANK holds (lets say) 800B in assets, I would not pay more than 800B for those assets because I can buy them from the market or in the case of loans start my own shop. Secondly if EBANK is holding onto that money for (at the moment) an unknown amount of time there is a great deal of risk in that investment. I know I would trust myself with my own cash with a good chance to make a 250% return over a year (or whatever timeframe), but do I trust other people to do so. This is the increased risk factor fby speculating in EBANK as an investment. Due to the above two statements that assets in Eve only hold their market value and a large risk associated investing in EBANK at present it is unlikely that people will offer money equivalent to current assets or a higher amount. SO if the assets when EBANK reports back this month the assets are worth 800B (guess?) that would be 40% of account balances, I think I would offer account holders some amount less than this value to make a return. If I needed to pay 40% I would just buy the assets elsewhere and earn money with them
Hexxx Minmatar	Posted - 2009.10.02 19:30:00 - [933] Originally by: cosmoray I think they are going to suggest a mechanism that the market buys out accounts. A look at the balance sheet shows that they have about 780B in assets or around 39% of all accounts balances. If someone will buy accounts they will not do so at asset value and leave it with someone else to earn money. All offers will probably be at a discount to asset value (under 39%), or you could just buy assets off the market at face value and not have any security issues. IMO best case scenario is about 30% on account balance maximum, unless there is a major change in EBANK's balance sheet. Either way expect market offers to be at least 20% under current asset value. Pricing should be a function of risk (whatever the market determines that to be), with estimates of time to recover, and some speculation. Assets on a liquid market (securities for example) are rarely priced at the current valuation but instead at future valuations. This is evident via the P/E ratio on some stocks being several multiples of 10 over their actual underlying fundamental value. Google for example has a P/E ratio of 33. Ultimately demand for liquidity coupled with risk appetite will likely be the big factors. My humble opinion of course. Google is a unique business in RL like others which can't easily be copied. In Eve when buying out a business you have the option of buying the equivalent assets and using them yourself. Because of this fact most businesses in Eve are worth close to their NAV, with some IPO's gaining more value due to the trust factor. If EBANK holds (lets say) 800B in assets, I would not pay more than 800B for those assets because I can buy them from the market or in the case of loans start my own shop. Secondly if EBANK is holding onto that money for (at the moment) an unknown amount of time there is a great deal of risk in that investment. I know I would trust myself with my own cash with a good chance to make a 250% return over a year (or whatever timeframe), but do I trust other people to do so. This is the increased risk factor fby speculating in EBANK as an investment. Due to the above two statements that assets in Eve only hold their market value and a large risk associated investing in EBANK at present it is unlikely that people will offer money equivalent to current assets or a higher amount. SO if the assets when EBANK reports back this month the assets are worth 800B (guess?) that would be 40% of account balances, I think I would offer account holders some amount less than this value to make a return. If I needed to pay 40% I would just buy the assets elsewhere and earn money with them I was just attempting to explain how the prices will probably be determined (things people think about), I think you followed that up with an excellently worded opinion. You probably have quite a bit of company as well due to the huge question mark around "How much time will it take?" I've seen alot of skepticism of a "quick" turn around. I'm no longer in position to speak about timing here and I'll refrain from commenting on that specifically.
Drab Cane Carbenadium Industries	Posted - 2009.10.03 00:24:00 - [934] A thought hit me after reading Hexxx's post about pricing future valuation. Future valuation refers to the price the stock/security can be expected to be sold for when sold to other investors. That is, in the future, what will other investors think of this security? Future likely sentiment, discounted to present value, probably puts the value of EBANK accounts closer to 5 - 10% of balance. Even if the future value of the account is considered its current balance, discount it by the 10%/month most traders can grow their funds, and assume 16 months for EBank to open up, we're talking a value of 20% of current balance. ----------------------------------------------- - Who Dares, Wins
nemmes Celestial Ascension	Posted - 2009.10.15 01:40:00 - [935] Looking forward to this announcement. If it appears today "Take me up in the arms of fate, with the strength of conviction and the hope of dreams"
Kalrand Charles Ponzi School of Business GoonSwarm	Posted - 2009.10.15 01:44:00 - [936] Oh god. this thread should be left to die. let the man start a new one.
SetrakDark	Posted - 2009.10.15 01:54:00 - [937] Originally by: nemmes Looking forward to this announcement. If it appears today hmmm...have they sold the titan BPCs yet?
Dzil Caldari Sausage Banking	Posted - 2009.10.15 12:39:00 - [938] Originally by: Drab Cane A thought hit me after reading Hexxx's post about pricing future valuation. Future valuation refers to the price the stock/security can be expected to be sold for when sold to other investors. That is, in the future, what will other investors think of this security? Future likely sentiment, discounted to present value, probably puts the value of EBANK accounts closer to 5 - 10% of balance. Even if the future value of the account is considered its current balance, discount it by the 10%/month most traders can grow their funds, and assume 16 months for EBank to open up, we're talking a value of 20% of current balance. I did some math on this a while back. The 10%/month (interest rate), 16 months (maturity time) and 20% (estimated current value) are all variables: if you set any two you can arrive at the third. If you go with 16 months and 10.6% interest/month, a 20% on the current balance is right on the money. Personally however, given recent learnings about uncollateralized loans to the tune of 100s of billions (and their tendency to bring about the worst in people), I couldn't invest in this no matter what the interest rate without a tighter control of the security to include 3rd party collateralization of the loan. I realize existing ebank clients may not have that option, and are in little control to negotiate for it. However, something ebank may want to consider in light of it's doing best for all its clients: If instead of 10.6% interest, it could acquire that "loan" based on market supply/demand at an interest rate of 3% over 16 months, early buyout customers would get 62% of their investment back today. The catch is What security can you provide to bring the trust level back to 3%? Dzil's Corp Sales - 200m
Emil Worrisu	Posted - 2009.10.22 17:23:00 - [939] So they fixed it yet? Is it working like normal again?
Ji Sama Caldari Tash-Murkon Prime Industries Sex Drugs And Rock'N'Roll	Posted - 2009.10.22 17:34:00 - [940] Originally by: Emil Worrisu So they fixed it yet? Is it working like normal again? UPDATE HERE
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2009.10.22 18:13:00 - [941] Originally by: Dzil Originally by: Drab Cane A thought hit me after reading Hexxx's post about pricing future valuation. Future valuation refers to the price the stock/security can be expected to be sold for when sold to other investors. That is, in the future, what will other investors think of this security? Future likely sentiment, discounted to present value, probably puts the value of EBANK accounts closer to 5 - 10% of balance. Even if the future value of the account is considered its current balance, discount it by the 10%/month most traders can grow their funds, and assume 16 months for EBank to open up, we're talking a value of 20% of current balance. I did some math on this a while back. The 10%/month (interest rate), 16 months (maturity time) and 20% (estimated current value) are all variables: if you set any two you can arrive at the third. If you go with 16 months and 10.6% interest/month, a 20% on the current balance is right on the money. Personally however, given recent learnings about uncollateralized loans to the tune of 100s of billions (and their tendency to bring about the worst in people), I couldn't invest in this no matter what the interest rate without a tighter control of the security to include 3rd party collateralization of the loan. I realize existing ebank clients may not have that option, and are in little control to negotiate for it. However, something ebank may want to consider in light of it's doing best for all its clients: If instead of 10.6% interest, it could acquire that "loan" based on market supply/demand at an interest rate of 3% over 16 months, early buyout customers would get 62% of their investment back today. The catch is What security can you provide to bring the trust level back to 3%? I think the people offering 20% were expecting that Ebank would liquidate at some point in the near future or they would offer a buyout, and that they would get something like 40-60% for the deposits, doubling or tripling their investment over a shorter time-frame. I don't think they were basing their offers on the present value of a future 100% payout (with or without interest) simply because there are too many unknowns. Much easier to estimate the current liquidation value and figure out what the chances are that depositors will get that returned to them. Anyway, we should have a better idea in a week.
cosmoray Bella Vista Holdings Corp	Posted - 2009.10.23 02:58:00 - [942] With the Titan BPC sales only netting 10B each EBANK is in a serious hole. Two Titans sold for 10B while the others are unsold. In EBANKS calculations they valued Titan BPC's at 18B each. 10 BPC's per year (x18B) = 180B Per month = 15B Current return on Titan BPC's = 8.5B the Titan BPC program was meant to be the big cash cow (it may be again in the future). The banks total earnings per month are currently running around 15B instead of the optimistic 22B. This means the payback time is going to be much longer. Chances of 100% payout I put at almost zero. Bank might just get to 50% capital base after the 1 year timescale mentioned. I can't see how the new plan will be much more optimistic.
SetrakDark	Posted - 2009.10.23 03:48:00 - [943] I don't think the poor BPC sales change much. There's still going to be people who want EBank to attempt to get their money back, though maybe less people now, so the BoD will continue to keep this going. The real issue with the next announcement is the quality of the buyout option for those who want out. The BPC sales may affect the buyout price, but I'm far more concerned with the proposed mechanism(s) of the buyout option.
Kim McCormack Minmatar	Posted - 2009.10.23 06:17:00 - [944] Originally by: cosmoray In EBANKS calculations they valued Titan BPC's at 18B each. Did we? Originally by: cosmoray This means the payback time is going to be much longer. Then so be it. Originally by: cosmoray Chances of 100% payout I put at almost zero. I put it at 100%. Originally by: cosmoray I can't see how the new plan will be much more optimistic. Optimism is in the eye of the beholder.
Ji Sama Caldari Tash-Murkon Prime Industries Sex Drugs And Rock'N'Roll	Posted - 2009.10.23 08:48:00 - [945] The payout can never be 100% because of inflation. No matter what, you will still owe interest, and that is a fact.
LaVista Vista Conservative Shenanigans Party	Posted - 2009.10.23 08:56:00 - [946] Originally by: Ji Sama The payout can never be 100% because of inflation. No matter what, you will still owe interest, and that is a fact. Quote: He who is least likely to make declarative statements is least likely to be called a fool in retrospect. It's only fairly recently that minor inflation started taking place on a macro-scale. I'd argue that Dominion will cause deflation in the long run as the T2 baskets will pull down the indicies. Since EBANK started 2 years ago, we have experienced major deflation. Deflation is a feature of most MMO economies. Using this logic, we ought to pay you out less, in fact.
Kim McCormack Minmatar	Posted - 2009.10.23 08:59:00 - [947] Originally by: Ji Sama The payout can never be 100% because of inflation. No matter what, you will still owe interest, and that is a fact. I'd have believed you if you'd said 'opportunity cost'. But that's not my problem, it's the depositors. They shouldn't invest in a bank the next time unless they know what is going on inside.
Ji Sama Caldari Tash-Murkon Prime Industries Sex Drugs And Rock'N'Roll	Posted - 2009.10.23 09:07:00 - [948] Simply not true, more isk is injected into the game, thats a fact. More isk = inflation Less isk = deflation Ill explain it more simple; if we the players get more and more ISK and more and more stuff, the value of the ISK and the Stuff inflates. If we where to get less ISK and Less stuff, the price would deflate. And that doesnt even adress the fact, that you lockdown peoples ISK for several years, and only paying back the principal. Now dont get me wrong, i support this action. I see it as the only RIGHT thing to do. But making it sound like you are returning all peoples isk is just a lie. And lying is wrong, we all know that.
LaVista Vista Conservative Shenanigans Party	Posted - 2009.10.23 09:15:00 - [949] Quote: More isk = inflation More ISK = Monetary inflation, an increase in the money supply. Quote: Less isk = deflation Less ISK = Monetary deflation, a decrease in the money supply. Correlation does not imply causation. While the Austrian school would argue that Monetary Inflation = Price Inflation, there's plenty of proof that this holds absolutely no truth in EVE's economy. You should know that. Let me once again point you to the current assumption that Dominion will cause deflation in the long run, as a result of the incoming T2 price nerf. My guess is that it will make up for the last quarter-ish worth of light inflation in the longer run(6-8 months)
Ji Sama Caldari Tash-Murkon Prime Industries Sex Drugs And Rock'N'Roll	Posted - 2009.10.23 09:31:00 - [950] Edited by: Ji Sama on 23/10/2009 09:33:26 Well im with the austrian school then :D I am seing a price increase on everything*, that means we are getting more isk. Data supports this! Somethings are dropping in price because of speculation and or nerfs...
LaVista Vista Conservative Shenanigans Party	Posted - 2009.10.23 09:33:00 - [951] Originally by: Ji Sama Well im with the austrian school then :D I am seing a price increase on everything, that means we are getting more isk. Data supports this! We are always getting more ISK by far. Even in periods of price deflation. But as you saw on the price level graph at fanfest(And in QEN), we have had a very long time of deflation. It's only very recently that the indices are starting to increase. This is independent of the always increasing money supply.
Ji Sama Caldari Tash-Murkon Prime Industries Sex Drugs And Rock'N'Roll	Posted - 2009.10.23 09:53:00 - [952] the deflation we saw explained at fanfest was a curve that followed the expansions, therefore you are also correct when you say prices will go up again around dec 1.
LaVista Vista Conservative Shenanigans Party	Posted - 2009.10.23 10:58:00 - [953] Originally by: Ji Sama the deflation we saw explained at fanfest was a curve that followed the expansions, therefore you are also correct when you say prices will go up again around dec 1. The graph you are explaining is the business cycle graph. That's elementary economics. Recall the graph showing the huge deflation in the economy as a result of invention. Eyjo predicted that we would have have a period of light deflation in early 2009, which we have seen. That doesn't make up for the huge deflation we have seen over the past 2 years. Overall, since EBANK started, we have experienced massive deflation. It's only the last 6 months we have seen any hint of inflation really. It's bound to spike around Dominion after which we will see a good amount of deflation.
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2009.10.23 13:25:00 - [954] Eve Online Economics Lesson in 4000 characters or less: Real World: Limited amount of stuff and relatively limited amount of money. Supply of money causes inflation or deflation. Examples: 1) Discovery of America brought huge supplies of gold to Europe and caused the relative value of gold to decline, prices of everything else went up, thus inflation. 2) Government prints lots of money to pay debts, value of dollar goes down, prices of stuff goes up, inflation. Eve Online: Unlimited amount of stuff and unlimited amount of isk. Both are nothing more than entries in a computer database. They are both created by the game to reward players and destroyed by the game to punish or penalize them. Yes, there is an economy in Eve. There is a well documented business cycle where people buy more stuff around expansions and tend to save their money between expansions, so they can buy more stuff at the next expansion. Prices of stuff also tend to fluctuate for various reasons, so players need to be thinking about things like do I buy stuff now or later, should I buy stuff now to sell later, should I keep my money in my wallet and not buy anything, should I sell some stuff and buy different stuff, etc. That is all well and good and part of what makes this a fun game for folks like us. But Eve Online is just a computer game. In other words, there is more to life than just Eve. When you talk about the future value of isk, it isn't just about how many battleships you can buy with it down the road, because the value of a battleship in an internet space game one year ago is not the value of a battleship one year from now. It's not just because people who used to fly battleships will be flying cap ships, or they will be flying fully pimped out battleships. It's because the amount of isk and stuff in the hands of active players is always increasing. The only ingame items that have any meaningful value in the outside world are PLEX and GTCs. I used to buy 90-day GTCs for 400M, now I can buy 30-day PLEX for 275M. That implies that the real-world value of isk has fallen by half in the intervening time. Yes, PLEX are subject to speculation and the business cycle. PLEX prices are probably depressed because of the expected influx of PLEX after Dominion, and will resume the upward trend after that. I could try to work out the complex interrelationship between the Eve business cycle and PLEX prices, but I will leave that to the reader. TL;DR-When talking about the value of isk, don't compare it to the bits and bytes of ingame stuff, but to real-world valued PLEX.
Kalrand Charles Ponzi School of Business GoonSwarm	Posted - 2009.10.23 13:42:00 - [955] Originally by: Claire Voyant 1) Discovery of America brought huge supplies of gold to Europe and caused the relative value of gold to decline, prices of everything else went up, thus inflation. Silver, but otherwise correct on your points.
Black Dronza Globe Trotter Inc The Matari Consortium	Posted - 2009.10.25 11:41:00 - [956] Hi EBank officials. Rather than read through a 32 page post please can you give an update on the recovery plan. How is it going against forecast? Many thanks -bd- Always expect the unexpected and you will never be suprised.
Kalrand Charles Ponzi School of Business GoonSwarm	Posted - 2009.10.25 19:12:00 - [957] Originally by: Black Dronza Hi EBank officials. Rather than read through a 32 page post please can you give an update on the recovery plan. How is it going against forecast? Many thanks -bd- They wont tell you this, but they stole all your isk. You get nothing, sir. Good day.
Dzil Caldari Sausage Banking	Posted - 2009.10.25 23:46:00 - [958] Originally by: Black Dronza Hi EBank officials. Rather than read through a 32 page post please can you give an update on the recovery plan. How is it going against forecast? Many thanks -bd- I mean, the title pretty much broadcasts their intended date of releasing information. I'm not sure why they didn't just set the expectation of Nov 1st, but meh. Dzil's Corp Sales - 200m
Tesal	Posted - 2009.10.26 00:45:00 - [959] Originally by: Kalrand Originally by: Black Dronza Hi EBank officials. Rather than read through a 32 page post please can you give an update on the recovery plan. How is it going against forecast? Many thanks -bd- They wont tell you this, but they stole all your isk. You get nothing, sir. Good day. With help from Goons. You forgot that part. All things shall be revealed in good time. never stop posting...with alts. Now you know what it is to be owned. Mittani alt says hi. I win. You lose. For the honor of spit stained basement dwelling virgins.
Kong iverz Gallente Atomic Reaction Gentlemen's Club	Posted - 2009.10.26 10:01:00 - [960] Im just wondering on how Ebank are doing... Will you guys recover? I know its not easy... and i understand if you never will. Always sad to loose isk, but never take the isk out of the wallet if u cant afford to loose it... thats eve rule nr 1. Im basically just looking for some info on when ebank will unfreeze. Would also be nice to get out some isk :P Kai Onslot can kill two stones with one bird

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