What will happen in more detail, should be this: first days: massive reduction in ice mined due both to bots breaking and people simply not being informed and just not finding belts.
Then the new and stupid mechanic will become known and people will know they MUST get there first and hoard as much as possible. Some might even try switching to full yield Hulks, with booom-tastic tears results.
This will lead to a "sawtooth" usage, where more miners than now - also coming from surrounding empty ice systems will flow to the remaining belt, achieving higher numbers of ships than today. At this point, estimating 200 up from the current 120-150 is not an huge jump in theorycraft.
After some weeks, miners will begin to understand that most just can't get enough of the stuff (Caldari ice) before it's gone and will give up. How exactly they'll "give up" will translate: migrate to Amarr ice, move to roids or unsub mining accounts is not predictable, but I do hope CCP gets a slap in the face for inventing such an asinine timer.
Slaps in face are what drove CCP to do some of their best work, look at how good the mass unsub after the GREED IS GOOD + "let's release half assed, half made patches" period: after the slap, CCP started delivering more focused and practical and even fun patches again.

What I got form all this and the last 2 dozen post of your are that:... you are going to sell your botting accounts cause you don't want to move to LOWSEC or NULLSEC to mine.

Just undo the barges buffs and let PLAYERS kill miners and define supply, demand and market price. THAT's an imperfect yet sandboxy and realistic solution, not this farce.

I agree, let's move all ice mining to lowsec and nullsec.

Deal. But ONLY in low sec and NPC null sec. Sov null sec is too easy to transform into an endless bot-land and there's nobody to report the bots and it's too easy for them to detect neuts in local and warp to POS / safe.

If limiting the amount of damage a group of botters could do was your main objective, making it easier for miners to get caught would be best because then you need to have an active defense fleet. You can't bot a defense fleet.

At the same time you can reward players for taking the additional risk, either by giving them more reward or by removing excess supply.

Odyssey is a baby step in both directions. If they took any larger steps in just one patch people would be shooting monuments in Jita because of their irrational hate of nullsec players.

Ice was being oversupplied because people enjoyed supplying it and were willing to work for very small return. That play style, where you can stay logged and just come and check your PC and fleet of mining ships once in a while, is being removed.

I know of lot of miners who are quitting and others that will just reduce their number of accounts and go and do missions instead. So what will happen?

At a simple global macro view the productivity of mining ships has been increased and so fewer miners will be required. On top that the price hike, already caused to ice will reduce demand further as POS's go offline further reducing the need for miners. There will also be some reallocation of resource extraction so that there is less need for freighter pilots. So in short there will be less of pretty much everything. All of this does nothing to address the big blue doughnut.

An uncontrolled loss of subs in a MMO is a very dangerous thing as it can create momentum for decline, especially in a game that is stagnating. This will also hit the confidence of investors. You really have to wonder whether CCP Fozzie and those involved in this have just got a huge stakes in Elite and are trying to sabotage EVE.

CCP are neither changing the absolutely craptastic AFK-bot-friendly game mechanic nor introducing any incentive for PvPers to waste hours and hours playing watch on something that will never come or - if it'll come - it'll have scanned them and will bring in enough to crush them anyway.

The "static caravans / sitting ducks staying pinned down there" whole concept is wrong. Who's so stupid to accept sitting in a defensless ship if there's consistent risk being popped?

anyone who can do math and figure out the expected rate of return is quite high, who does not soil themselves in fear of losing a ship

Before you say that so they should NOT be reaping the benefits for being AFK, mining is not nearly as lucrative a business as running anoms, sites etc. So do you really think that all those guys mining in null/low/WH will continue to do so with the GREATLY increased risk to their safety and LITTLE increase in reward vice moving on to the more lucrative activities

Ahhh the sweet waterfall of AFK multiboxing tears.

Prices will rise until players who distinguish little between shooting space rocks and shooting red crosses switch between them.

Eve will continue to reward activity over inactivity, so might as well get used to it.

I wonder if you'll be saying this in 4-5 months when prices double for your precious ships and modules. You guys can put down carebearing all you want, but it's the only thing keeping ships in your hangar bay and modules in your inventory to fly those ships.

I wonder if you'll be saying this in 4-5 months when prices double for your precious ships and modules. You guys can put down carebearing all you want, but it's the only thing keeping ships in your hangar bay and modules in your inventory to fly those ships.

I do not see any facts for the price of ships doubling.

Sadly this thread has been derailed by a few ppl who are afraid that their AFK highsec ice mining fleets would actually require them to interact with the game. They have played the usually cards like unsubbing, eve is dying, this will break the game etc.

I am not talking about ice mining.. I'm talking about changing current grav sites, into anomalies.

I do not see the anomily change as a thread. Unless your afk, you should have enough time to get away. If your close to the gate bubble it use sling bubbles. If your afk you deserver to die. The grav site is only a false safety since you can be probed there.

In a WH you don't have local, and that's my point.. The PROBES gave you a headsup to GTFO.. In Odyssey, a fast tackle can jump into a system, scan down the grav site and warp there BEFORE whoever is in that belt will be able to align to warp out. (and that's in a regular system where the miner has the warning of local) in WHs,,. your only warning will be the guy decloaking and scramming you.

This is a wasted opprtunity as well as being destructive. What CCP should be doing is improving the PVE and the sense of realism.

Isn't it stupid the way the belt rats just keep spawning and throwing themselves st ships they have zero chance of damaging?

How much better would it be if the PVE made some sense? Lets say a Gurista hideout spawns in the system. Rats from that hideout warp out and travel to belts - scouting. The longer the hideout is left undetected the more chance it has of increasing in size.

Eventually a reasonable fleet spawns at the enlarged base and warps to the belt to attack a number of targets selected by the scouts - a serious attack with a real chance of success. Faction police may spawn to defend the belt.. This would make it all more realistic, and fun.

Mining ships would be forced to tank or leave the belt both reducing their productivity. Belt defense could be fun. Gankers would want to co-ordinate any attack as the ships and belts would be better defended.

People scanning sites and destroying sites at source would be also be having a direct impact on their fellow citizens

waitwaitwait, a drop in WH mining is going to double prices across the board?

No.. but makign mining in the dangerous areas of space, become even more of a turkey shoot. will cause a drop in those spaces being used for mining.. Which in turn will reduce supply, and thus drive prices.

And with that you've crossed from the terrible to the ridiculous.

Good day.